Search

Background: Clinical opioid overdose risk prediction models can be useful tools to reduce the risk of overdose in patients prescribed long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). However, evolving overdose risk environments and clinical practices in addition to potential harmful model misapplications require careful assessment prior to widespread implementation into clinical care. Models may need to be tailored to meet local clinical operational needs and intended applications in practice. Objective: To update and validate an existing opioid overdose risk model, the Kaiser Permanente Colorado Opioid Overdose (KPCOOR) Model, in patients prescribed LTOT for implementation in clinical care. Design, Setting, and Participants: The retrospective cohort study consisted of 33, 625 patients prescribed LTOT between January 2015 and June 2019 at Kaiser Permanente Colorado, with follow-up through June 2021. Main Measures: The outcome consisted of fatal opioid overdoses identified from vital records and non-fatal opioid overdoses from emergency department and inpatient settings. Predictors included demographics, medication dispensings, substance use disorder history, mental health history, and medical diagnoses. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to model 2-year overdose risk. Key Results: During follow-up, 65 incident opioid overdoses were observed (111.4 overdoses per 100,000 person-years) in the study cohort, of which 11 were fatal. The optimal risk model needed to risk-stratify patients and to be easily interpreted by clinicians. The original 5-variable model re-validated on the new study cohort had a bootstrap-corrected C-statistic of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64–0.85) compared to a C-statistic of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70–0.88) in the updated model and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.66–0.87) in the final adapted 7-variable model, which was also well-calibrated. Conclusions: Updating and adapting predictors for opioid overdose in the KPCOOR Model with input from clinical partners resulted in a parsimonious and clinically relevant model that was poised for integration in clinical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: Family members are cited as a common source of prescription opioids used for nonmedical reasons. However, the overdose risk associated with exposure to opioids prescribed to family members among adolescents and young adults is not well established., Objective: To assess the association of opioids prescribed to family members with pharmaceutical opioid overdose among youth., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included 45 145 family units with a total of 72 040 adolescents and young adults aged 11 to 26 years enrolled in a Kaiser Permanente Colorado health plan in 2006 and observed through June 2018., Exposures: Opioid prescriptions and dosage dispensed to family members and youth in the past month., Main Outcomes and Measures: Fatal pharmaceutical opioid overdoses identified in vital records and nonfatal pharmaceutical opioid overdoses identified in emergency department and inpatient settings. Time to first overdose was modeled using Cox regression., Results: The study population consisted of 72 040 adolescents and young adults (mean [SD] age across follow-up, 19.3 [3.7] years; 36 646 [50.9%] girls and women) nested in 45 145 family units. Youth were more commonly exposed to prescription opioids dispensed to a family member than through their own prescriptions. During follow-up, 26 284 youth (36.5%) filled at least 1 opioid prescription, and 47 461 youth (65.9%) had at least 1 family member with a prescription. Exposure to family members with opioid prescriptions in the past month was associated with increased risk of pharmaceutical opioid overdose (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.17; 95% CI, 1.24-3.79) independent of opioids prescribed to youth (aHR, 6.62; 95% CI, 3.39-12.91). Concurrent exposure to opioid prescriptions from youth and family members was associated with substantially increased overdose risk (aHR, 12.99; 95% CI, 5.08-33.25). High dosage of total morphine milligram equivalents (MME) prescribed to family members in the past month was associated with youth overdose (0 MME vs >0 to <200 MME: aHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 0.51-3.81; 0 MME vs 200 to <600 MME: aHR, 1.49; 95% CI, 0.59-3.77; 0 MME vs ≥600 MME: aHR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.55-5.56)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study of youth linked to family members, exposure to family members' prescribed opioids was associated with increased risk of pharmaceutical opioid overdose, independent of opioids prescribed to youth. Further interventions targeting youth and families are needed, including counseling patients about the risks of opioids to youth in their families.