1. Future Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Wind and Solar Energy in China Based on an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA‐II Regional Climate Simulations.
- Author
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Wu, Rongchang, Niu, Xiaorui, Jing, Xianwen, Li, Ping, Mao, Yanjin, Chen, Xianchun, and Wang, Shuyu
- Subjects
SOLAR energy ,WIND power ,GREENHOUSE gas mitigation ,CLIMATE change models ,RENEWABLE energy sources ,CLIMATE change ,CLIMATE change forecasts - Abstract
Wind and solar energy are crucial for meeting the growing energy demand and mitigating the impact of climate change, and their sources show a climate‐dependence. Here, based on the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by three global climate models within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the effects of future climate change on wind power density (WPD) and photovoltaic power potential (PVP) in China under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario are comprehensively investigated, and the sources of uncertainty are also quantified. Results show that all RCMs can reproduce the observed WPD and PVP in China by employing the Quantile Delta Mapping method for wind speed simulations. For the future projections, the annual averages of WPD and PVP in China tend to decrease by −11.67% to −1.7% and −4.6% to −1.12%, respectively, with more significant reduction under the RCP8.5 than under the RCP2.6. Note that uncertainties exist among the RCMs' simulations in terms of future projections and long‐term trends. Further analysis reveals that the uncertainty in both WPD and PVP projections are primarily driven by the internal variability in most sub‐regions except the Tibetan Plateau, where GCM uncertainty and emission scenarios play the dominant role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projection, respectively. This study highlights the potential benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions in enhancing and stabilizing renewable energy in China. Plain Language Summary: China has set an ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which requires an accelerated energy transition toward wind power and photovoltaic. However, the sources of wind and solar energy are sensitive to weather and climate, and future potential of wind and solar energy in China under a warming climate remains uncertain, posing a significant concern for the decision‐makers. Based on high‐resolution multiple regional climate models (RCMs) projections, we found that the annual average of wind power density (WPD) and photovoltaic power potential (PVP) are expected to decrease in the future by approximately −11.67% to −1.7% and −4.6% to −1.12%, respectively. There are notable uncertainties among the multi‐RCM projections, and the internal variability is the main source of uncertainty for most sub‐regions except the Tibetan Plateau, where GCM uncertainty and emission scenarios play the dominant role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projection, respectively. Our results highlight the advantages of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to enhance and stabilize renewable energy sources in China. Key Points: The annual average wind and solar energy in China are expected to decrease in the future based on a multi‐RCM ensembleThe internal variability plays a dominated role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projections in most sub‐regionsThe uncertainty in WPD and PVP projections over the TP is driven primarily by the different GCMs and emission scenarios, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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