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Efforts at finding the next Politburo members have, since the mid-1970s, been at the center of Chinese Elite and leadership studies. From the late 1980s onwards, leadership selection has become more institutionalized. This allows scholars to narrow down their search to more 'propitious' elements in order to try to predict who might ascend to the Politburo. Consequently, this article ponders if it was possible to differentiate these individuals from their less 'promotable' counterparts upon their entry into the Central Committee between 1992 and 2012. Based on statistical reassessment of variables commonly found in the literature, the article argues that soon-to-be Politburo members were already displaying a different profile than that of their counterparts 5 to 10 years before their entry into the Politburo. This article does not seek to establish a perfect predictive model rather than circumscribe the profile-type and environment in which these rising Elites can be found. Lastly, the latter opens a discussion on what to expect from the results as well as competing profiles found inside the Central Committee. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Factionalism has, since the 1970s, been one of the key elements in explaining both Elite formation and leadership change in the People's Republic of China. Despite becoming more "civilized" and bound by institutional constraints, factions and other factional groups still play an important role in Elite recruitment, even if Cadres have to go through extensive "field testing" in order to be promoted. In turn, this article focuses on one of the most important political forces present on the Chinese political scene since the 1980s: the Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL). Through extensive use of statistical methods, the article tries to measure the "tuanpai effect" on career patterns since 1992 in order to see what, how and up until when the latter affects a Cadre's promotability. Lastly, this research opens up a discussion on whether the CCYL is a clearly defined and cohesive "faction" or simply a self-repeating promotion channel being used by opportunistic Cadres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]