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Plant phenology refers to cyclic plant growth events, and is one of the most important indicators of climate change. Integration of plant phenology information is crucial for understanding the ecosystem response to global change and modeling the material and energy balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Utilizing 24 552 in situ phenological observations of 24 representative woody plant species from the Chinese Phenology Observation Network (CPON), we have developed maps delineating species phenology (SP) and ground phenology (GP) of forests over China from 1951 to 2020. These maps offer a detailed spatial resolution of 0.1 ∘ and a temporal resolution of 1 d. Our method involves a model-based approach to upscale in situ phenological observations to SP maps, followed by the application of weighted average and quantile methods to derive GP maps from the SP data. The resulting SP maps for the 24 woody plants exhibit a high degree of concordance with in situ observations, manifesting an average deviation of 6.9 d for spring and 10.8 d for autumn phenological events. Moreover, the GP maps demonstrate robust alignment with extant land surface phenology (LSP) products sourced from remote sensing data, particularly within deciduous forests, where the average discrepancy is 8.8 d in spring and 15.1 d in autumn. This dataset provides an independent and reliable phenology data source for China on a long-time scale of 70 years, and contributes to more comprehensive research on plant phenology and climate change at both regional and national scales. The dataset can be accessed at 10.57760/sciencedb.07995 (Zhu and Dai, 2023). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain ecosystems are sensitive to climate change, and vegetation phenology provides one of the best signals to exemplify ecosystem responses to climate change. Vegetation phenology of mountain ecosystems is usually characterized with an elevational pattern, with the growing season starts earlier and ends later in lower versus higher elevations. With climate change, this elevational gradient of vegetation phenology is likely to shift as well. However, both the patterns and the underlying driving forces for potential changes in this elevational gradient of vegetation phenology are still unclear. Here, we used 500‐m resolutioned normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period of 2001 to 2017 to investigate changes in the start of growing season (SOS) along the elevational gradient for six mountains in northern China dominated by broadleaf deciduous forests. We found that while SOS consistently advanced for most of the pixels, the elevational lapse rate of SOS (SE) showed various trends for different mountains. Specifically, SE showed a significant (p‐value <.05) decreasing trend for the two southernmost mountains, indicating an increasing elevational synchronization in SOS. However, such phenological synchronization was not found in other temperate mountains. As warming has caused relatively consistent increases in heat forcing across different elevations and among different mountains but has led to highly various changes in chilling hours between high and low elevations, we suggested that the distinctive pattern in elevational synchronicity of spring phenology between southern and northern mountains in temperate China was primarily due to their different recent changes in chilling hours. Our work provides a novel key hypothesis for explaining the divergent changes in elevational gradients of vegetation phenology that can be tested in other regions for mountain ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological records in historical documents have been proven to be of unique value for reconstructing past climate changes. As a literary genre, poetry reached its peak in the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) in China. Sources from this period could provide abundant phenological records in the absence of phenological observations. However, the reliability of phenological records from poems, as well as their processing methods, remains to be comprehensively summarized and discussed. In this paper, after introducing the certainties and uncertainties of phenological information in poems, the key processing steps and methods for deriving phenological records from poems and using them in past climate change studies are discussed: (1) two principles, namely the principle of conservatism and the principle of personal experience, should be followed to reduce uncertainties; (2) the phenological records in poems need to be filtered according to the types of poems, background information, rhetorical devices, spatial representations, and human influence; (3) animals and plants are identified at the species level according to their modern distributions and the sequences of different phenophases; (4) phenophases in poems are identified on the basis of modern observation criteria; (5) the dates and sites for the phenophases in poems are confirmed from background information and related studies. As a case study, 86 phenological records from poems of the Tang Dynasty in the Guanzhong region in China were extracted to reconstruct annual temperature anomalies in specific years in the period between 600 and 900 CE. Following this, the reconstruction from poems was compared with relevant reconstructions in published studies to demonstrate the validity and reliability of phenological records from poems in studies of past climate changes. This paper reveals that the phenological records from poems could be useful evidence of past climate changes after being scientifically processed. This could provide an important reference for future studies in this domain, in both principle and methodology, pursuant of extracting and applying phenological records from poems for larger areas and different periods in Chinese history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating grassland phenology and its relationship with climatic factors is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change. However, there have been few studies on the impact of soil moisture on grassland phenology. In this study, we extracted the green-up date in the Inner Mongolia grasslands, China, using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g dataset (1982–2015) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (2001–2015). We investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of the green-up date and its relationship with four climatic factors, including growing degree days, chilling days, soil moisture, and solar radiation. Most areas (67.1%) exhibited a trend towards earlier green-up date, but the significant trends (p < 0.05) were only found in 13.4% of the areas. For both datasets, the pixels with a negative regression coefficient of soil moisture accounted for more than 87% of the total area (more than 21% significantly, p < 0.05). Regarding the other factors, the sign of regression coefficients was not consistent among pixels. Thus, soil moisture correlated more significantly with the green-up date in temperate grasslands compared with the other climatic factors. This study provides the scientific basis for better understanding the mechanism of phenological response to climate change in temperate grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in crop phenology may reflect crop responses and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we used observational data (1981–2010) of maize (Zea mays L.) phenology from agricultural meteorological stations in the major maize-growing regions of China to examine spatiotemporal changes in the phenologies and growth periods and associated sensitivities to changes in major climatic factors. The results showed that, during the study period, sowing, tasseling, and maturity dates for maize were delayed in most maize growth regions. The lengths of vegetative growth period (VGP, from emergence to tasseling) were increased in spring and spring-summer maize growth regions and decreased in summer maize growth regions; the lengths of the maize reproductive growth period (RGP, from tasseling to maturity) and whole growth period (WGP, from emergence to maturity) were mostly extended (except NWMR_SU). Overall, sensitivity of maize VGP, RGP, and WGP was negatively related to average temperature (P < 0.01) and positively related to precipitation and sunshine hours (P < 0.01); there were variations in sensitivity among regions and data station locations. Precipitation was a driver of growth period length in the northwest inland maize region, whereas mean temperature and sunshine hours were drivers in the southwest hilly region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a natural ecosystem or as climatic climax community, grassland is relatively dry with a strongly seasonal climate, and sensitive to climatic changes. Most of the previous studies used remote sensing data to investigate the phenological response of grassland to climate change, while ground‐based studies covering a large geographic area were limited. In this study, using the long‐term phenological data (1981–2012) of 16 herbaceous species observed at 20 stations in Inner Mongolia, China, we first investigated the trends in three spring phenophases, including the dates of bud‐burst, first leaf unfolding, and 50% of leaf unfolding. Subsequently, multiple linear regressions between phenophases and four climatic factors (spring temperature, soil moisture, chilling temperature, and insolation) were performed to determine the relative importance of each factor on the spring phenology. To validate the resulted regression coefficients, we developed a controlled environment to investigate the factors regulating the leaf unfolding time of one dominant species (Leymus chinensis). The results showed that the study area became warmer and drier from 1981 to 2012. However, the overall changes in spring phenophases were not apparent, as there was a similar proportion of significant earlier or later trends. Such phenological changes were driven by multiple climatic factors. The warmer temperature would advance the spring phenophases, while lower soil moisture would delay them. The impact of soil moisture was significant in the experimental data, but not significant in the observation data. In addition, leaf unfolding became faster when L. chinensis experienced more chilling days, but this effect was difficult to be detected in observation data due to the weak sensitivity of the leaf unfolding time to chilling days. These findings can help us to understand how the spring phenology of typical herbaceous species responds to multiple climatic factors under the background of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This case study of the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China, utilizes statistical methods to estimate quantitatively the interaction at a regional level between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies over the past 2000 years. The data is sourced from high-resolution reconstructions of climate series (temperature and precipitation), and historical records of cultivated land, war, population, and changes in regional administrative systems. The results show that moisture conditions played a more significant role than temperature in driving land reclamation in the Hexi Corridor. Analysis also showed a negative correlation between war frequency and the area of cultivated land in the Corridor over 20-year time intervals. Population growth was found to have a significant positive correlation with the cultivated land area during the study period. The results indicate that a climate-induced decline in agricultural production and the subsequent fluctuations in population could act as a trigger for social unrest, which is especially true at the mutual decadal time-scales. However, the interaction with administrative reform also suggests that, in the face of social and economic turmoil, a reasonable administrative hierarchy could strengthen the social governance of regional government, and promote social stability and economic development at a regional level. The study substantiates this notion with empirical quantitative evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autumn phenology plays a critical role in terrestrial ecosystem circulations. However, the changes in autumn phenology and their correlation with temperature remain uncertain because mean temperature alone was not able to determine the changes in autumn phenology at various sites. Here, the leaf coloring season (LCS) was defined as the period when the leaves of more than half of the species had recognized changes in color. We systematically studied the changes in peak, start, end, and duration of LCS and their correlations with five temperature parameters (mean temperature, accumulated cold temperature, day temperature, night temperature, and temperature difference between day and night) in four periods. Similarly to previous findings, the start date of LCS advanced and the end of LCS delayed over the past 50 years, which consequently led to a lengthened duration of LCS in Xi'an, Harbin, Minqin, and Shenyang. In general, the rise in mean temperature, day temperature, and night temperature would delay the peak, start, and end of LCS and lengthen the duration of LCS in most cases. We also proved that the changes in LCS metrics not only could completely be explained by mean temperature but also were influenced by day temperature, night temperature, temperature difference, and even other climatic factors such as precipitation, at different sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology, defined as the shift of phenophase with per unit change of preseason temperature, has been widely used to quantify phenological response to climate change. The spatial variation in ST of spring phenology has been well studied for several woody plants, but how to explain it became a challenge. Several hypotheses to explain the spatial variation in ST have been proposed, but studies examining all potential factors together were very limited. In this study, using first flowering date (FFD) data for five widespread woody plants at 47 stations in China and the other five species at 421 stations in central Europe during 1964–2014, we calculated ST by using the Sen's slope of FFD on mean preseason temperature for each species at each station. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was applied to examining whether ST followed the geographical (latitudinal, longitudinal, or vertical) gradients. At last, four potential influencing factors of ST were tested by Spearman partial correlation analysis. We found that ST of FFD was higher at lower latitude for most species in China. However, in central Europe, the variation of ST did not follow the geographical gradient for most species. Only one species (Fraxinus excelsior) showed a latitudinal gradient, and one (Betula pendula) showed a longitudinal gradient. For most species in both regions, the strength of FFD–temperature relationship and the preseason length could account for the spatial variation of ST to a more considerable extent compared to preseason temperature variance and chilling conditions. Our results suggest that we need to consider the effects of multiple factors on phenological response to temperature when simulating future phenological change. The spatial patterns of the temperature sensitivity (ST) of first flowering date (FFD) for five woody plants in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant phenology is influenced by various climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, insolation, and humidity, etc. Among these factors, temperature and precipitation are proved to be the most important. However, the relative importance of these two factors is different among various phenophases and regions and is seldom discussed along environmental gradients. Based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the NDVI3g dataset and using the mid-point method, we extracted the start date of the growing season (SOG) and the end date of the growing season (EOG) in northern China during 1982–2012. To determine which climate factor was more influential on plant phenology, partial correlation analysis was applied to analyse the spatial difference between the response of SOG and EOG to temperature and precipitation. Finally, we calculated the temperature and precipitation sensitivities of the SOG and EOG. The results showed that: (1) SOG displayed an advancing trend in most regions, while EOG was delayed for all the vegetation types during 1982–2012. (2) SOG was mainly triggered by preseason temperature. The increase in temperature caused an overall advance in SOG. However, the relationship between SOG and precipitation varied among different vegetation types. Regarding EOG, precipitation had greater impacts than temperature in relatively arid environments, such as deserts, steppes and meadow biomes. (3) The response of vegetation phenology (both SOG and EOG) to temperature became stronger with increasing preseason precipitation across space. The response of EOG to precipitation became weaker from arid regions to relatively humid regions. These results provide a better understanding of the spatial pattern of the phenological response along the precipitation gradient and a reference for assessing impacts of future climate change on vegetation phenology, especially in transitional and fragile zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological data obtained from historical documents constitute highly important ecological evidence for the pre-instrumental period, and can be used in analyzing climatic change in history. In this study, 87 phenological records about seasonality of non-biological events (e.g., first frost date), agriculture and ornamental plants (e.g., first flowering date) over 77 years were extracted from historical documents from the Sui and Tang dynasties in China to reconstruct the winter half-year (from October to next April) temperatures in the Guanzhong Area (located in central China) from 600 to 902 AD. Transfer functions between temperature and phenophases with significant correlations were established by using modern observation data. Temperatures from the study period were reconstructed by applying the transfer functions to historical phenological data. The reconstruction indicates that the winter half-year temperatures during 600-902 AD were 0.23°C higher than the reference period (1961-1990). The temperature changed with two distinct stages. During the 600s-800s, temperatures were approximately 0.38°C higher than at present but then temperatures decreased in the subsequent period (800-902 AD). These results are similar to ones from previous studies on the mean temperature and the divisions between warm and cold periods during the study period, though differences were found in the degree of warmness/coldness. This reconstruction provides a valuable contribution to a better understanding of climatic variability during the Sui and Tang dynasties in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advance in spring plant phenology over the last several decades has been found in all continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Compared to the studies detecting phenological trends, the studies investigating the geographical pattern of phenological variability (including mean date and magnitude of variability) are rather limited. In this study, we analyzed spatial pattern of mean date and standard deviation (SD) of first bloom date (FBD) time series (≥15 years) for black locust ( Robinia pseudoacacia) at 22 stations in China, common lilac ( Syringa vulgaris) at 79 stations in the Western US and Chinese lilac ( Syringa chinensis) at 45 stations in the Eastern US. Subsequently, the impact of geographical factors (latitude, longitude, and altitude) on the mean date and SD was quantified by using the multiple regression analysis method. Meanwhile, the relationship between FBD variability and temperature sensitivity of FBD was examined. Results showed that the mean FBD highly depended on geographical factors for all the three species. Compared to the mean date, the dependence of SD of FBD time series on geographical factors was weaker. The geographical factors could only explain 13 to 31 % of spatial variance in SD of FBD. The negative regression coefficients of latitude ( P < 0.05 except black locust) indicated that FBD is more variable at lower latitude. At most of stations, significant and negative correlations between FBD and preseason temperature on interannual scale were found, but the temperature sensitivity varied among different stations. The magnitude of temperature sensitivity decreased with increasing latitude. In general, the locations at lower latitude had earlier and more variable spring phenophase and showed stronger phenological response to climate change than the locations at higher latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Phenology can be used to track plant responses to climate change. In China, several studies have found the earlier trends of spring phenophases over the past 50 years. However, few studies put these phenological changes into historical perspective. Based on specific phenophases records from historical diaries and Chinese Phenological Observation Network, we developed spring phenology index ( SPI) time series in temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China from 1850 to 2009. We firstly compare the temporal change of SPI and seasonal temperature anomaly. Subsequently, we search for common shifts in phenological and temperature time series by applying the moving t-test method, and discuss temperature sensitivity of SPI by using the moving linear regression method for both regions. Results show that the SPI in temperate region revealed lower interannual variability than in subtropical region, while the seasonal temperature variability was higher in temperate region. In temperate region, the timing of significant shift towards earlier SPI (in 1979) coincides with the timing of shift in spring temperature time series. The temperature sensitivities of SPI differ among the two regions. The mean sensitivity of SPI to spring temperature in subtropical region (−3.7 days °C−1) is stronger than in temperate region (−2.5 days °C−1). The temperature sensitivity of SPI varies among consecutive 30-year periods. In recent three decades, temperature sensitivity of spring phenophases became stronger in both regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960-2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade−1 ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade−1 for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade−1, while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade−1. For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s-2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s-2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China ( R = −0.33, P < 0.05). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent shifts in phenology reflect the biological response to current climate change. Aiming to enhance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated and validated spatio-temporal models of first leaf date (FLD) for 20 broadleaved deciduous plants in China. Using daily meteorological data from the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) created using three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), we described the FLD time series of each species over the past 50 years, extrapolating from these results to simulate estimated FLD changes for each species during the twenty-first century. Model validation suggests that our spatio-temporal models can simulate FLD accurately with R (explained variance) >0.60. Model simulations show that, from 1952 to 2007, the FLD in China advanced at a rate of −1.14 days decade on average. Furthermore, changes in FLD showed noticeable variation between regions, with clearer advances observed in the north than in the south of the country. The model indicates that the advances in FLD observed from 1952-2007 in China will continue over the twenty-first century, although significant differences among species and different climate scenarios are expected. The average trend of FLD advance in China during the twenty-first century is modeled as being −1.92 days decade under the A2 scenario, −1.10 days decade under the A1B scenario and −0.74 days decade under the B2 scenario. The spatial pattern of FLD change for the period 2011-2099 is modeled as being similar but showing some difference from patterns in the 1952-2007 period. At the interspecific level, early-leafing species were found to show a greater advance in FLD, while species with larger distributions tended to show a weaker advance in FLD. These simulated changes in phenology may have significant implications for plant distribution as well as ecosystem structure and function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species' phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39-43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71-85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was −3.93 to 3.30 days °C and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003-2011 compared with the period 1963-1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from −20.68 to −2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Chilling accumulation (CA) and heat requirement (HR) are determined for 14 species. • An inconsistent CA-HR relationship between years was found. • Using one-year experimental data to simulate spring phenology is inappropriate. • Current chilling models need to be improved by performing more experiments. The controlled experiments are increasingly used to examine the effect of chilling on the spring phenology of temperate woody plants. Previous studies demonstrated a delaying effect of lack of chilling on spring events due to a negative relationship between chilling accumulation (CA) and heat requirement (HR). However, most experiments only lasted for one year, and limited studies examined the consistency of the CA-HR relationship between years. Here, we conducted a twig experiment with 14 temperate woody species in two winter seasons (2018/2019 and 2019/2020) to assess the between-year difference in the impact of chilling on HR of flowering or leaf-out. The CA and HR for each species in each year were estimated based on the common-used chilling and forcing model. The results showed that 8 of 14 species exhibited a significantly different slope or intercept of the linear function of HR against CA between two winter seasons. Using the first-year CA-HR function to simulate the second-year spring events would result in large uncertainties with root-mean-square errors ranging from 1.3 to 9.9 days. In addition to the original chilling model, we further selected an optimal one for each species from another 8 chilling models. The optimal chilling models varied among species and could reduce the RMSE of phenological simulation of 10 species by 0.1–3.7 days. Our results suggest that using one-year experimental data to develop the phenological model or estimate the chilling and heat requirement of spring events is unsuitable. Further studies are still needed to better quantify the rate of chilling under different temperature conditions for various species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We selected widely distributed and well observed plant species Fraxinus chinensis to study the formation mechanism of geographical distribution of the plant phenophase changes and revealed their spatiotemporal dynamics in China. Based on the first leaf date (FLD) data at 12 sites derived from Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and related meteorological data, we developed and validated the process-based model of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis. After reconstructing data series of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis over the study area from 1952 to 2007, we analyzed different spatiotemporal patterns of phenophase changes of this species. The results suggested that the process-based model was able to simulate the FLD accurately for Fraxinus chinensis on large spatial and temporal scales, because of the consideration of different budding rate responded to the air temperatures during the dormancy and the quiescence in accordance with the physiological mechanism of plants. The geographical distribution of the spring phenology in temperate regions was determined by the spatial pattern of daily average air temperature. The changes of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis revealed significant phenological advances in most areas. However, it showed delayed trends in a few sites. The overall average change trend was −1.1 days/decade. This result was consistent with the advanced trend in other regions of the North Hemisphere. The changes of FLD showed a noticeable regional variation with clearer advance in the north than in the south. The FLD in northern China showed an average advance as high as −2.0 days/decade ( P<0.01). And the advance in northeastern and northwestern China was respectively −1.5 and −1.4 days/decade ( P<0.01). Furthermore, eastern and central regions showed a minor trend, which was −1.0 days/decade ( P<0.05). The smallest and non-significant advance appeared in southwestern and southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface phenology (LSP) is beneficial to understand ecosystem response to climate change, vegetation and crop type discrimination, and ecological modeling. However, the existing efforts based on coarse resolution data (≥500 m) cannot perform well in regions with higher spatial heterogeneity and multi-cropping system, such as China. Given that the majority of 10 m/30 m-based phenological research has focused on North America and Europe, developing spatiotemporally explicit LSP data in China is imperative. More importantly, the existing 30 m LSP products are mainly suitable for vegetation types with a single vegetation cycle, but cannot work well for biomes with complex seasonality (e.g., multiple growth cycles). Here we first harmonized three vegetation indices, i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2), and land surface water index (LSWI) from Landsat-7/8 and Sentinel-2 imagery on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We then developed a new 30 m LSP algorithm that unified different phenological cycle-seeking processes per vegetation type and improved the existing algorithm. Furthermore, we used the algorithm to estimate the LSP product (LSP30CHN) for 2016–2019 across China, suitable for all vegetation types. The validation results showed a reasonably high accuracy (R2 > 0.6, RMSE < 15 days, mostly) of the LSP30CHN data against multi-sources in-situ observational (e.g., PhenoCam) and satellite-retrieved vegetation phenology data. Moreover, LSP30CHN data showed a consistent pattern but finer spatial details with the 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) phenology product (MCD12Q2) at the homogenous area. We also found that phenological differences between LSP30CHN and MCD12Q2 increased with surface fragmentation, suggesting the potential of LSP30CHN to delineate phenological information on more fragmented landscapes. In contrast, the 500 m LSP data cannot provide such details in the regions with mixed cropping structures (e.g., corn, rice, and soybean) and multiple cropping index (e.g., single- and double-cropping systems). This study offers high accuracy of the LSP map for China, valuable for finer phenology-based services such as field-level crop management and agricultural phenology monitoring. It opens up new insights about exploring large-scale refined agricultural management and ecological assessment for other regions with complicated, fragmented landscapes and vegetation seasonality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing evidence of plant phenological change to temperature increase demonstrates that the phenological responsiveness is greater at warmer locations and in early-season plant species. Explanations of these findings are scarce and not settled. Some studies suggest considering phenology as one functional trait within a plant's life history strategy. In this study, we adapt an existing phenological model to derive a generalized sensitivity in space (SpaceSens) model for calculating temperature sensitivity of spring plant phenophases across species and locations. The SpaceSens model have three parameters, including the temperature at the onset date of phenophases (Tp), base temperature threshold (Tb) and the length of period (L) used to calculate the mean temperature when performing regression analysis between phenology and temperature. A case study on first leaf date of 20 plant species from eastern China shows that the change of Tp and Tb among different species accounts for interspecific difference in temperature sensitivity. Moreover, lower Tp at lower latitude is the main reason why spring phenological responsiveness is greater there. These results suggest that spring phenophases of more responsive, early-season plants (especially in low latitude) will probably continue to diverge from the other late-season plants with temperatures warming in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate change-induced advanced spring green-up dates (GUDs) of vegetation in the past decades have been well documented. However, anthropogenic effects on GUDs are still unclear, and the impacts of widespread cropland expansion on GUDs are rarely quantified. Here, we examine the differences in GUDs between agroecosystems and natural ecosystems using both satellite and in-situ observations across China's ecosystems with a latitude ≥ 30°N and explore the potential effects of cropland expansion on vegetation spring phenology. We find that agroecosystems had significantly later GUDs than adjacent natural ecosystems according to satellite observations, with a delay of 22.26 ± 16.32 (Mean ± 1STD) days and 18.11 ± 11.75 days compared with woodland and grassland ecosystems, respectively. The later GUDs for agroecosystems is more distinct in the Northeast China Plain and Xinjiang Oasis region (>30 days), where land reclamation was remarkable. We also find a distinct delayed GUD trend (> 5 day/yr, p < 0.001) during 2001–2014 in a cropland expansion region in Xinjiang Province, which is much higher than the usual advancement of GUDs due to warming (usually ≤ 1 day/yr). In-situ and satellite observations of delayed GUDs agree better in agroecosystems than in forest and grassland ecosystems. More attention is needed to better understand the important role of cropland expansion in driving inter-annual change of vegetation spring phenology in addition to climate change, and integration of realistic crop green-up timing into climate models is also needed for accurate climate simulations. • Differences in the vegetation green-up dates (GUDs) between agroecosystems and natural ecosystems are quantified. • Cropland expansion delayed vegetation GUDs greatly according to satellite and in-situ observations. • Effects of cropland expansion on spring phenology change trends cannot be overlooked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spring phenological traits of plant species in Northeast China are analyzed. • Spring phenological traits of plants are phylogenetically conserved. • Reproductive phenology is more phylogenetically conserved than vegetative phenology. • Native climate has a stronger effect than phylogeny on spring phenological traits. The effects of climate change on plant phenology have been widely recognized around the world. However, the effect of plant internal factors (such as phylogeny) on the variations in phenology among plant species remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the phylogenetic conservatism in spring phenological traits using phylogenetic signal and evolutionary models, including Brownian motion (BM) model, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model and white noise (WN) model, based on the phenological data of 48 temperate plant species in Northeast China. We also explored the relative contributions of phylogeny and adaptation to native climate (i.e., the climate in native range of species) to the variations in the phenological traits among species using phylogenetic eigenvector regression and variance partitioning analysis. The results showed thatspring phenological traits conformed to the OU model, indicating thatspring traits were phylogenetically conserved. The effect of phylogeny on flowering traits was stronger than that on leaf-out traits. Additionally, the adaptation to native climate contributed more to the variations in spring phenological traits among species than phylogeny, and adaptation to native climate explained more variations in leaf-out traits than in flowering traits. Our results suggested that the spring phenological traits were constrained by both phylogeny and adaptation to native climate. However, the adaptation to native climate had a stronger effect on the variations in phenological traits than phylogeny. Therefore, the degree of similarity in spring phenological traits across closely related species depends on the degree of similarity in the environmental conditions where these close relatives are distributed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high northern latitudes (>50°) experienced a pronounced surface stilling (i.e., decline in winds) with climate change. As a drying factor, the influences of changes in winds on the date of autumn foliar senescence (DFS) remain largely unknown and are potentially important as a mechanism explaining the interannual variability of autumn phenology. Using 183,448 phenological observations at 2,405 sites, long-term site-scale water vapor and carbon dioxide flux measurements, and 34 y of satellite greenness data, here we show that the decline in winds is significantly associated with extended DFS and could have a relative importance comparable with temperature and precipitation effects in contributing to the DFS trends. We further demonstrate that decline in winds reduces evapotranspiration, which results in less soil water losses and consequently more favorable growth conditions in late autumn. In addition, declining winds also lead to less leaf abscission damage which could delay leaf senescence and to a decreased cooling effect and therefore less frost damage. Our results are potentially useful for carbon flux modeling because an improved algorithm based on these findings projected overall widespread earlier DFS than currently expected by the end of this century, contributing potentially to a positive feedback to climate., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Climate warming has advanced the spring phenology of many plant species by accelerating heat accumulation. However, delayed phenophases due to insufficient chilling have also been reported. Based on phenological observation data (1963-2010), we compared the effects of preseason chill and heat accumulation on leaf unfolding dates of four deciduous woody species (Lagerstroemia indica, Robinia pseudoacacia, Sophora japonica, and Ulmus pumila) in temperate and subtropical regions of China. Daily chill and heat accumulation were calculated by two chilling models (the Positive Utah Model and the Dynamic Model) and the Growing Degree Hour (GDH) Model. We determined the temporal trends in chill and heat accumulations for leaf unfolding of the four species. The results showed that there were shorter chilling periods in the subtropics than in temperate sites because the chilling period typically started later and ended earlier. There was no significant difference in the length of the forcing period in the different regions. The chilling requirements for leaf unfolding were higher in temperate regions (1344.9-1798.9 chilling units (CU) or 64.7-79.4 chilling portions (CP)) than in the subtropics (1145.9-1828.1 CU or 47.9-75.2 CP). Plants in the subtropics needed higher forcing temperatures (4135.8-10084.8 GDH) than those in temperate regions (3292.0-8383.6 GDH). The earlier-leafing species (e.g., U. pumila) had a lower heat requirement for leaf unfolding than the later-leafing species (e.g., L. indica). A significant increase in heat accumulation was found at all sites except Guiyang, while chill accumulation only increased in Beijing.

Continuous long-term temperature sensitivity (S T ) of leaf unfolding date (LUD) and main impacting factors in spring in the period 1978-2014 for 40 plant species in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, were analyzed by using observation data from the China Phenological Observation Network (CPON), together with the corresponding meteorological data from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Temperature sensitivities, slopes of the regression between LUD and mean temperature during the optimum preseason (OP), were analyzed using 15-year moving window to determine their temporal trends. Major factors impacting S T were then chosen and evaluated by applying a random sampling method. The results showed that LUD was sensitive to mean temperature in a defined period before phenophase onset for all plant species analyzed. Over the period 1978-2014, the mean S T of LUD for all plant species was - 3.2 ± 0.49 days °C -1 . The moving window analysis revealed that 75% of species displayed increasing S T of LUD, with 55% showing significant increases (P < 0.05). S T for the other 25% exhibited a decreasing trend, with 17% showing significant decreases (P < 0.05). On average, S T increased by 16%, from - 2.8 ± 0.83 days °C -1 during 1980-1994 to - 3.30 ± 0.65 days °C -1 during 2000-2014. For species with later LUD and longer OP, S T tended to increase more, while species with earlier LUD and shorter OP tended to display a decreasing S T . The standard deviation of preseason temperature impacted the temporal variation in S T . Chilling conditions influenced S T for some species, but photoperiod limitation did not have significant or coherent effects on changes in S T .

Existing evidence demonstrates that the first flowering date (FFD) of most plant species became earlier in response to temperature increase over the past several decades. However, the studies on changes in flowering duration (FD) were limited. By using the non-parametric Theil-Sen estimator, this study investigated the temporal trends in 127 time series of FFD, end of flowering date (EFD), and FD of 97 woody plants from 1963 to 2014 at three sites (Harbin, Beijing, and Xi'an) in North China. The relationship between flowering phenophases and temperature was analyzed using two phenological models. The results showed that most of FFD and EFD time series exhibited an apparent advancing trend. Among them, trends of 52.0% (40.9%) of FFD (EFD) time series were significant (P < 0.05). FFD and EFD time series (95.3 and 89.8%, respectively) responded negatively and significantly to preseason temperature (P < 0.05). The direction of FD changes varied among sites and species. On average, a shortening trend of FD was observed at Harbin (-0.51 days decade -1 ), with 7.5% of species significantly. However, FD on average extended by 0.42 and 0.93 days decade -1 at Beijing (24.5% significantly) and Xi'an (28.9% significantly), respectively. The regression models could simulate the interannual changes in FFD and EFD with the mean goodness of fit (R 2 ) ranging from 0.37 to 0.67, but fail to simulate the changes in FD accurately (R 2 ranging from 0.09 to 0.18). The growing degree day model could improve the R 2 for simulating FFD and EFD except for FD. Therefore, more phenological models need to be tested, and more drivers of FD need to be further investigated.