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There is evidence of an increased frequency of rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global offshore regions. This will not only result in increased peak wind speeds but may lead to more intense heavy precipitation events, leading to flooding in coastal regions. Therefore, high impacts are expected for urban agglomerations in coastal regions such as the densely populated Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. Regional climate models (RCMs) such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are state-of-the-art tools commonly applied to predict TCs. However, typhoon simulations are connected with high uncertainties due to the high number of parameterization schemes of relevant physical processes (including possible interactions between the parameterization schemes) such as cumulus (CU) and microphysics (MP), as well as other crucial model settings such as domain setup, initial times, and spectral nudging. Since previous studies mostly focus on either individual typhoon cases or individual parameterization schemes, in this study a more comprehensive analysis is provided by considering four different typhoons of different intensity categories with landfall near the PRD, i.e. Typhoon Neoguri (2008), Typhoon Hagupit (2008), Typhoon Hato (2017), and Typhoon Usagi (2013), as well as two different schemes for CU and MP, respectively. Moreover, the impact of the model initialization and the driving data is studied by using three different initial times and two spectral nudging settings. Compared with the best-track reference data, the results show that the four typhoons show some consistency. For track bias, nudging only horizontal wind has a positive effect on reducing the track distance bias; for intensity, compared with a model explicitly resolving cumulus convection, i.e. without cumulus parameterization (CuOFF; nudging potential temperature and horizontal wind; late initial time), using the Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF; nudging only horizontal wind; early initial time) configuration shows relatively lower minimum sea level pressures and higher maximum wind speeds, which means stronger typhoon intensity. Intensity shows less sensitivity to two MP schemes compared with the CuOFF, nudging, and initial time settings. Furthermore, we found that compared with the CuOFF, using the KF scheme shows a relatively larger latent heat flux and higher equivalent potential temperature, providing more energy to typhoon development and inducing stronger TCs. This study could be used as a reference to configure WRF with the model's different combinations of schemes for historical and future TC simulations and also contributes to a better understanding of the performance of principal TC structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. To explore these impacts in the context of China, the world's largest EV market, we expand and enrich an integrated assessment model. We find that under a high material cost surge scenario, EVs would account for 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total number of vehicles in China, significantly lower than 49% (2030) and 67% (2060) share in the base-line, leading to a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While material recycling and technical battery innovation are effective long-term countermeasures, securing the supply chains of critical materials through international cooperation is highly recommended, given geopolitical and environmental fragilities. Under a high-cost scenario for battery critical materials, the uptake of electric vehicles in China may be greatly reduced, leading to increased cumulative carbon emissions. This may jeopardize both China's electric vehicle and climate targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid and semi‐arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions. This study investigates the changes in agroclimatic conditions for growing Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) in the semi‐arid North China during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. It employs high‐resolution climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS‐2.0). The changes in CMY yield and producing area under future climate change are simulated by the Agro‐Ecological Zone model. The simulations are based on newly calibrated cultivar parameters. The results show that the high‐resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations of precipitation and temperature than the general circulation model (GCM). Because of the increased temperature and precipitation, the agroclimatic conditions for CMY are going to improve. While the traditional yam production area will maintain suitable for CMY production, the CMY production areas will further expand northward in the future. The average yield will increase by 1,196 and 1,336 kg DM/ha under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Key Points: Improving the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions in the semi‐arid North ChinaThe high‐resolution Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies projections correspond better with the observationsThe Chinese Medicinal Yam production areas will expand northward in the future, the average yield will increase by 1196–1336 kg DM/ha in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This report summarizes the preliminary analysis of the PRECIS 2.0 simulation results, with an emphasis on the priority concerns of Shanghai municipal government and other local governments in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region, and research gaps in the literature. This study employs two regional climate models (RCMs) that are the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), being driven by HadGEM2‐ES and IPSL‐CM5A, two global circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to investigate the impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation over Eastern China. The capacity of two RCMs and its driving GCMs in reproducing the historical climate during the baseline period (1981–2000) are first evaluated, and then the projections of mean and extreme precipitation over future warming climate period (2041–2060) under the scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are carried out. Our analysis shows that with the improved resolution and better representation of finer‐scale physical processes, WRF and PRECIS downscaling displays obvious advantages over their driving GCMs (IPSL and HadGEM, respectively) in the validation runs. In particular, the two RCMs are able to capture the observed features of spatial distributions of extreme precipitation indices including V95p, R95t, and SDII. The future projections indicate that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 emission scenarios would add further strength to the daily precipitation intensity by 2041–2060. Key Points: This report presents projections of changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Eastern China for the middle of the 21st centuryWe use two regional climate models driven by two global circulation models to reduce the modeling uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) has been prescribed as medicinal food for thousand years in China by Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners. Its medical benefits include nourishing the stomach and spleen to improve digestion, replenishing lung and kidney, etc., according to the TCM literature. As living standard rises and public health awareness improves in recent years, the potential medicinal benefits of CMY have attracted increasing attention in China. It has been found that the observed climate change in last several decades, together with the change in economic structure, has driven significant shift in the pattern of the traditional CMY planting areas. To identify suitable planting area for CMY in the near future is critical for ensuring the quality and supply quantity of CMY, guiding the layout of CMY industry, and safeguarding the sustainable development of CMY resources for public health. In this study, we first collect 30-year records of CMY varieties and their corresponding phenology and agro-meteorological observations. We then consolidate these data and use them to enrich and update the eco-physiological parameters of CMY in the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. The updated CMY varieties and AEZ model are validated using the historical planting area and production under observed climate conditions. After the successful validation, we use the updated AEZ model to simulate the potential yield of CMY and identify the suitable planting regions under future climate projections in China. This study shows that regions with high ecological similarity to the genuine and core producing areas of CMY mainly distribute in eastern Henan, southeastern Hebei, and western Shandong. The climate suitability of these areas will be improved due to global warming in the next 50 years, and therefore, they will continue to be the most suitable CMY planting regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unsustainable overexploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation has led to rapid groundwater depletion and severe environmental damage in the semi-arid Hebei Plain of China. Field experiments have recommended annual winter fallowing (i.e., forgoing winter wheat production) as the most effective way to replenish groundwater. However, adopting the recommendation across the Hebei Plain would lead to a significant reduction in total wheat production. This research aims to find the most favorable water-sustainable cropping systems for different localities in the Hebei Plain, which at the regional aggregation level maintains the uppermost overall levels of wheat and grain production respectively. Our simulations indicate that in the Hebei Plain, an optimal allocation of a wheat-early maize relay intercropping system and an early maize-winter fallow cropping system across the Hebei Plain could lead to significant water savings while minimizing grain production losses to around 11%. Compared to the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system , to prevent a drop in the water table, 39% of the current wheat cropping land would need to be fallowed in winter, reducing irrigation water use by 2639 × 106 m3. Replacing the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system with our optimized allocation system could lead to a 36% increase in total maize production and 39% decrease in total wheat production, resulting in total agricultural irrigation water savings of 2322 × 106 m3 and a total grain production reduction by 11%. The findings indicate the potential benefits of our cropping system adaptation method to meet the challenge of recovering local groundwater level with the least possible reduction of wheat and total grain production in the Hebei Plain. • The current practice of overexploiting groundwater in the Hebei Plan is unsustainable • We search for the desired water-sustainable cropping systems across localities in the Plain • Minimizing the reduction of wheat production and recovering water table • The crop allocation procedure and findings enrich the literature and inform policy makers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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With the wages for migrant workers increasing dramatically in China since 2003, the size of the agricultural labour forces has been shrinking rapidly. Intensively substituting agricultural machinery for the shrinking farm labour force is hardly possible for croplands in the mountainous regions of China where mechanization is difficult to achieve due to small field size and rough terrain. This has eventually led to cropland abandonment in these regions. Considering the high pressure for food security in China, cropland abandonment in the mountainous regions should not be ignored. By employing a novel method, this study estimates the extent of recently abandoned croplands (period 2000-2010) and the changes that can be expected in the future in China's mountainous areas. The results show that the total extent of abandoned croplands in Chinese mountainous counties during the period 2000 to 2010 is estimated at 147 million mu (1 mu = 666.67 m²); in total, about 28% of croplands in mountainous counties was abandoned, including croplands converted in the Grain for Green Programme. With 3 scenario assumptions, a sizeable extent, 114 to 203 million mu, of croplands may be abandoned from 2010 to 2030 with the rapid decrease and ageing of projected farm labour forces. This could exacerbate the future challenges of maintaining China's food security. A substantial increase in agricultural project investments, including land consolidation and agricultural productive fixed assets, especially microtillage machines, could help mitigate the risk of cropland abandonment. Additionally, land-use and environmental policymaking should take into account the expanding cropland abandonment in mountainous regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insufficient precipitation and continuous over-exploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation led to rapid drop of groundwater table in a large part of the North China Plain (NCP), the bread basket of China. It has become widely acknowledged that current practice of winter wheat-summer maize sequential cropping system (WM-S) in the NCP will have to come to an end as soon as possible. Great research efforts have been made at the local level via both field experiments and model simulations to construct groundwater neutral cropping systems but virtually all such constructs show a substantial penalty on total output per unit of land per year. In this research, we propose a strategy to meet the double challenge of maintaining regional grain production level and recovering local groundwater table: 1) Widely adopt winter fallow and early-sowing summer maize monocropping (E-M) in water scarce part of the region to enable groundwater recovery; 2) replace WM-S by wheat-maize relay intercropping system (WM-R) in the water richer part of the NCP to increase grain production so as to compensate yield losses in the water scarce part of the region. Our simulations using DSSAT 4.6 at the site level show that both yield and water productivity of E-M are 33.7% and 41.8% higher than those of existing summer maize, with less than 20% of increase in water requirement. In comparison with spring maize, E-M requires 62.4% less irrigation water, with a yield penalty of only 4.52%. At the regional scale, the simulations targeting at maximizing groundwater saving in water scarce area subject to maintaining the current level of regional total output indicate that about 20.45% of the wheat planting area can be put on fallow in winter, most of which is located in the driest regions of the NCP. This can result in a large amount of groundwater saving at 5.62 × 10 9 m 3 and a substitution of wheat by maize at 24.3% of the total wheat output. These findings provide new rooms for the relevant policy makers and stakeholders to address the urgent groundwater recovering issues in the northern NCP without compromising the level of food grain production of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is the largest wheat-producing country in the world. Wheat is one of the two major staple cereals consumed in the country and about 60% of Chinese population eats the grain daily. To safeguard the production of this important crop, about 85% of wheat areas in the country are under irrigation or high rainfall conditions. However, wheat production in the future will be challenged by the increasing occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme weather events. In this paper, we present an analysis that combines outputs from a wide range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with observational data to produce more detailed projections of local climate suitable for assessing the impact of increasing heat stress events on wheat yield. We run the assessment at 36 representative sites in China using the crop growth model CSM-CropSim Wheat of DSSAT 4.5. The simulations based on historical data show that this model is suitable for quantifying yield damages caused by heat stress. In comparison with the observations of baseline 1996-2005, our simulations for the future indicate that by 2100 the projected increases in heat stress would lead to an ensemble-mean yield reduction of −7.1% (with a probability of 80%) and −17.5% (with a probability of 96%) for winter wheat and spring wheat, respectively, under the irrigated condition. Although such losses can be fully compensated by CO fertilization effect as parameterized in DSSAT 4.5, a great caution is needed in interpreting this fertilization effect because existing crop dynamic models are unable to incorporate the effect of CO acclimation (the growth-enhancing effect decreases over time) and other offsetting forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cropland abandonment has emerged as a prevalent phenomenon in the mountainous areas of China. While there is a general understanding that this new trend is driven by the rising opportunity cost of rural labor, rigorous theoretical and empirical analyses are largely absent. This paper first develops a theoretical model to investigate household decisions on farming scale when off-farm labor market is accessible and there is heterogeneity of farmland productivity and distribution. The model is capable of explaining the hidden reasons of cropland abandonment in sloping and agriculturally less-favored locations. The model also unveils the impacts of heterogeneity of household labor on fallow decisions and the efficiency loss due to an imperfect labor market. The model is empirically tested by applying the Probit and Logit estimators to a unique household and land-plot survey dataset which contains 5258 plots of 599 rural households in Chongqing, a provincial level municipality, in Southwest China. The survey shows that more than 30% of the sample plots have been abandoned, mainly since 1992. The econometric results are consistent with our theoretical expectations. This work would help policy-makers and stakeholders to identify areas with a high probability of land abandonment and farming practice which is less sustainable in the mountainous areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite China's attractiveness to foreign investors, intellectual property rights ( IPR) protection in China has not caught up with international standards. This research aims to quantify the relationships between IPR violations, government effectiveness, and foreign direct investment ( FDI) inflows in the context of China. Our econometric modeling and estimation based on provincial level data over 2002-2012 show that in an early development stage of law and regulatory enforcement, the bad news of a rising number of IPR dispute cases signals the good news of an improvement in law and regulatory enforcement, which encourages IPR owners to raise legal cases. By contrast, in the later development stage, when law and regulatory enforcement has become much more effective, the bad news of a rising number of IPR disputes manifests itself as very bad news. Furthermore, this study confirms that FDI inflows enhance IPR protection through improving government effectiveness, and government effectiveness is one of the key factors promoting FDIs. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid economic growth and urbanization in China have led to a substantial change in consumption patterns and diet structure of Chinese consumers over the past few decades. A growing demand for feed, fuel, and fiber also places intense pressure on land resources. With continuing growth of China's economy and migration from rural to urban, the increase in food consumption and change in diet structure will likely continue, which will not only impose pressure on domestic land resources, but also exert impact on land resources in other countries through import. This article applies a global multiregion input-output (MRIO) model to trace agricultural land use along global supply chains and examines the impact of China's future food consumption on global land use in 2030 against different socioeconomic and technological scenarios. Our scenarios show that by 2030, China would need an additional 21% of cropland to support its increasing food demand, driven by population growth, urbanization, and income growth and the associated diet structure change. Almost one third of cropland associated with household consumption (34 million hectares [Mha]) will be 'outsourced' to foreign countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and Thailand, for the consumption of cereal grains, soybeans, and paddy rice. China also consumes 2.4 Mha of cropland from Africa for its consumption of cereal grains and oil seeds. The dependence of domestic consumption on significant amounts of foreign cropland shows that China would face serious challenges to meet its grain self-sufficiency policy in the future, and, at the same time, this dependence would contribute to environmental and food security problems elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China's future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China's future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be brought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multicropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multicropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to outweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Employing monthly data over the period 1999–2010, this paper examines the impact of China's exchange rate regime reform in July 2005 on three major asset markets: house, land, and stocks. We test whether the reform, which switches from a fixed exchange rate regime to a managed floating one, has brought forward structural changes to asset return dynamics. The results suggest that the exchange rate regime switch exerted the most significant impact on house and land returns at the national level, in terms of both returns and their volatilities. In contrast, its impact on China's stock market was moderate, with no structural change being detected in its returns and only weak structural change being found in the dynamics of its volatility. We also find that in comparison with other popular explanatory variables, broad money supply and inflation have the largest explanatory power on housing and land returns in China after the policy reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although research has shown that countries' world-systems positions can predict levels of pollution and wealth, there has been little research looking at how consumption in the core triggers both pollution and wealth elsewhere in the world economy. In this article, we track how consumption in the United States, a core country, triggers value added and pollution throughout global commodity chains. We track these distributions for all commodities and services consumed in the United States, then for six commodity groupings, and finally for two case studies, “Motor Vehicles” and “Wearing Apparel.” Our findings show how the production of commodities for US consumption tends to reify inequalities in the world-system: Larger shares of value added (in comparison to shares of pollution) are generally prompted within the core, whereas the opposite effect tends to be experienced in the non-core. We also discuss interesting exceptions to these general trends occurring at different levels of analysis. Finally, we draw special attention to China, the elephant in the room that exhibits both core and peripheral characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

ABSTRACT The recent warming trends have led to rising concerns on how the changing climate has been altering and will continue to alter agroclimatic conditions in China. In this study, high resolution climate scenarios from regional climate models ( RCMs) are used as input to the agro-ecological zones ( AEZ) model for China and to compute a comprehensive set of agroclimatic indicators. Uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change on agroclimatic conditions are also discussed with respect to (1) RCM outputs for different emission scenarios, and (2) differences in projections obtained from two different RCMs under the same emission scenario. The results indicate a significant extension of the crop growing period in tandem with the rising temperatures during the crop growing season, which may lead to increase in multi-cropping opportunities at high latitudes and thus advance the total potential output per unit of cropland. However, the results show that the Southwest China will experience a significant reduction in the value of humidity index, implying severe challenges for future agricultural development in the region. Spatially explicit patterns of changes in future agroclimatic conditions, as revealed in this study, can be beneficial for policy-makers, farming communities and other stakeholders to assess risk factors, design adaptation and mitigation measures, and improve management practices at the local to regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: China has become increasingly dependent on the international energy market owing to the rapid growth of demand for energy. To develop renewable energy and thus strengthen energy security for the future, it is important to consider the potential of crop residues. This paper contributes to this topic by mobilizing up-to-date statistical and remote-sensing data and by carrying out a geographic and economic analysis. Its assessment shows that China's total output of crop residues in 2010 amounted to 729 million tons, and the quantity could be used for commercial energy production is between 147 and 334 million tons, depending on the competition power of the commercial energy production relative to the traditional uses of crop residues. The analysis also shows that the distribution of crop residues in China is highly uneven. By taking into account the densities of crop residues available for energy production at the grid-cell level, the transportation cost constraints, and the economy-of-scale requirements of energy plants, this study further assesses the geographic distribution of the suitability for establishing crop residue based power plants and bioenergy plants in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: China, like many other countries, is promoting the development of liquid biofuel, including bioethanol and biodiesel. The Chinese government has set biofuel development targets for the coming decade and sanctioned a series of supportive policies. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of current liquid biofuel development in China, related government policies, and the potential opportunities and challenges for its future expansion. Our assessment is based on two rounds of in-depth fieldwork and a thorough literature review. The assessment shows that the prevailing concern on food security has pushed China to move from cereal-based to non-cereal-based biofuel production. Emphasis has also been put on utilizing new marginal land for feedstock production. Our assessment indicates that the targets of China''s biofuel development are cautious and feasible, but on the other hand there are still severe challenges for the sustainability of such development. A better understanding of China''s experience in striking a balance between energy security, food security and environmental protection would inform the debates across country boundaries and contribute to the efforts for global sustainability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study develops a spatial dynamic model to assess the total-factor-productivity (TFP) effects of externalities generated by foreign direct investment (FDI). The model is capable of disentangling TFP effects from capital accumulation effects and introducing spatial interdependence based on theoretical derivation rather than spatial statistical tests. An application of this model to a panel dataset of China at the provincial level over 1980-2005 shows significantly positive impact of FDI externalities on TFP within and across regions. This finding is robust to a range of empirical specifications of our theoretical model, to different estimators, and to alternative proxies of FDI intensity variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discuses the application of spatial dynamic model to the study of cross-province growth in China. It states that the model introduces technology diffusion, factor mobility and structural change in cross-region growth regression. It notes that the perspective on structural change of development economics provide an improved account of income levels and economic growth in interprovincial variations.

Summary: This paper proposes a micro-level framework to account for how firms in developing economies overcome domestic institutional constraints. It illustrates that the mechanisms enabling those firms to benefit from financial globalization are more complex than the “direct” financial channels outlined in the neo-classical approach. China provides an important example in this context, as its capital market liberalization has been limited and neither the legal nor the financial system is well developed. Yet micro-level evidence from China’s internationally listed enterprises indicates that innovative firms can overcome institutional thresholds, secure access to international capital, and benefit and learn from international capital markets. This can in turn induce market-level improvements through regulatory competition and demand for a more standardized system of economic regulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

While the current regulatory trend in the area of banking scope regulation favours integrated financial services provision, China continues to restrict commercial banks' permissible range of business activities via its 1995 Commercial Bank Law. In this article, we propose an analytical framework that explicitly incorporates the sophistication-level constraint of a country's financial system into the regulatory trade-off calculation between banks' need for new growth opportunities and an increased risk of financial instability. Applying this framework to China, we first discuss the episode of financial instability that led policy-makers to re-segment the financial industry in 1995 and then analyse the rationale behind China's recent, gradual movement back towards integrated financial services provision. While improved risk management capabilities mean that China may now be ready for a more liberal banking scope regulatory regime, we find that a financial crisis could still derail this important element of China's financial sector reform strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses several papers published within the issue, including one by Damian Tobin and Shikha Singh on the convergence of Chinese state-owned commercial banks with international best banking and corporate government practices, and another by Damian Tobin on the progress of China's petrochemical sector.

This paper argues that the deeply rooted cause of poor corporate governance practices in China's state-owned banks is the discretion enjoyed by policy makers to re-optimise their policy choices when they deem necessary and the consequent moral hazard leading to opportunistic behaviours of bank managers. By examining the case of Bank of China Hong Kong (BoCHK), the paper suggests that international listing can provide an effective mechanism to mitigate the consequence of discretionary policies and managerial opportunism at home because the company is now disciplined and regulated by a more developed capital market outside the home jurisdiction. It shows that BoCHK's IPO preparation and first two years of listing on Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) have induced in-depth corporate restructuring and noticeable improvement in governance practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socioeconomic development has led to increased consumption of both blue and green water. Consequently, China is facing serious water scarcity issue. However, few studies have investigated interactions of blue and green water footprints, as well as driving forces underlying the changes in water footprints across provinces and sectors. To fill in this knowledge gap, we quantified the spatial-temporal dynamics of the blue and green water footprint (BWF and GWF, respectively), and analyzed the key factors that drive the provincial-level changes in BWF and GWF from 2002 to 2012. The analysis is facilitated by the approaches of multi-region input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis, and we developed one decoupling index to quantify the water-economy relation and substitution between green and blue water. The results show that China's BWF averaged at 161 billion m3/yr, about one-third the size of the GWF. In addition, water scarce provinces in Northern China were moving towards decoupling between economic growth and blue water consumption, with GWF playing an increasingly important role. The changes in the WFs were mainly influenced by changes in affluence (final demand per capita), technological improvements (decreased direct water consumption intensity), and consumption pattern (composition of the final demand) rather than changes in the population and export. Technology improvement, consumption pattern shift and industrial structure adjustment contribute to WF reductions, thus help improve water security and sustainability in China. This study provides a new approach to analyze water-economy relations for water scarce countries. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We apply a model coupling method to "reproduce" the field experiment process at 24 representative sites via model simulations. • The model coupling enriches and updates the rice genetic parameters. • The simulations demonstrate the feasibility of implementing water-saving irrigation methods across rice fields in China. • The expansion of "Alternate Wetting and Drying" method can lead to a "win-win" solution for the food-water-GHG emissions tradeoffs. Paddy rice cultivation is an important source of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China. The traditional flooded paddy rice fields not only use large amounts of irrigation water, but also produce significant methane (CH 4) emissions. To balance food security with environmental impacts of rice production, many water-saving irrigations technologies have been tested in the field to increase the drainage period during the rice growth cycle. However, whether these management solutions can be implemented at the regional scale needs to be further explored. Because it is too time-consuming and resource-intensive for field experiments to be carried out across large areas, we opt to assess the regional impacts of alternative irrigation schemes via computer modeling, by coupling the well-known DSSAT and DNDC models, which have been extensively validated in China. Irrigation methods tested include the traditional Continuous Flooding (CF), Midseason Drainage (MD) and Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD). Simulation results show that compared with CF, water-saving irrigation methods can significantly reduce the CH 4 emission from paddy rice field, with slight or no loss in expected rice yields. AWD had the greatest effect in reducing irrigation water amounts and CH 4 emission. Compared with CF, CH 4 emission under the AWD were 60% - 71% lower in Northeast China sites and 34% - 65% lower in South China sites. At the same time, compared to CF, irrigation water use in AWD was reduced by 23% - 34% in northeast China sites and by 18% - 50% in south China sites. Our results suggest that policies that support expansion of AWD in paddy rice cultivation across China can lead to a "win-win" for the food-water-GHG emissions tradeoffs, and offer a viable solution for policy makers and stakeholders in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Precise winter fallow periods in the Yangtze River basin are identified at the grid level using remote sensing and a unique dataset of rapeseeds growing records at 84 observation stations over 1981-2011. • Considering adaptations on sowing dates and cultivars, the total potential of rapeseed production on winter fallow land could reach 15.17 million tons, on average 1,950 kg/ha. • By coupling the AEZ and CHINAGRO-II models, we estimate economic benefit of rapeseed production and its impact on edible oil security of China. • A 60% realization of the production potential would reduce China's rapeseed import to zero and further reduce soybean import by 8.1 million tons in 2020. To solve the energy crisis and protect the ecological environment has been the central concern of the sustainable development debate. The reproducibility and lower environmental impacts of bioenergy have attracted increasing attention in the debate. This research investigates the potentials of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) to serve the goal of boosting bioenergy production and improving edible oil security in China. It first quantifies the extent of winter fallow fields in the Basin and identifies the accurate starting and ending dates of the fallowing at the grid-cell level. It then matches the fallowing periods with the growing period grid-by-grid and assesses the current and future potentials of rapeseed production across the matched grid-cells in the region. The assessments take into consideration of climate change adaptations on sowing dates and on the choice of varieties with suitable growth cycle length. Finally, by coupling the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model and CHINAGRO-II economic model, this research simulates economically meaningful levels of rapeseeds production and trade for 2020 and 2030. A 60% realization of the production potential would increase total rapeseed supply by 9.1 million tons, reduce China's rapeseed import to zero and further reduce soybean import by 8.1 million tons in 2020. In 2030, the import of rapeseed would be reduced from 15 million tons under baseline to 7.3 million tons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The extent of land abandonment plays a mediation role in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising scale. • Massive migration of rural labor promotes a separation of livestock farms from the crop-livestock system. • Rural labor migration resulted in significant variation in the livestock raising scale across households. • Two pathways linking rural labor migration to livestock raising scale show opposite effects. Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers' willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water, in particular water scarcity, is the fulcrum of China's dilemma in pursuing industrialization, income growth, modernization, and national food security. The Haihe River Basin (HRB) is an extremely water stressed hydrological system, which encompasses the two megacities of Beijing and Tianjin, and is experiencing the detrimental impacts of the recent unprecedented economic growth on its scarce water resources. We applied an integrated multi-regional input–output (MRIO) hydro-economic model combined with the water scarcity index to analyze consumption water footprint (WF) and embedded or virtual water flows in inter-regional trade in the HRB and their impacts on hydrosystems (scarcity water footprint). The study shows that in 2007, the WF of the HRB was approximately 37.1 billion m 3 (277 m 3 per capita), of which the ‘scarcity’ WF was approximately 26.7 billion m 3 or 72% of the total WF. In line with its high level of water scarcity, the HRB's net import level of virtual water was 11.3 billion m 3 (84 m 3 per capita), with the total import of 25.9 billion m 3 and total export of 14.6 billion m 3 . In contrast, the HRB's net import level of virtual scarce water is at a relatively moderate scale of 1.8 billion m 3 , with the import of 15.7 billion m 3 and export of 13.9 billion m 3 . While it is highly desirable to import more virtual water from water rich regions, a caution is needed in importing virtual scarce water because the latter will lead to greater water stress in other water scarce regions. Accounting for water scarcity in the WF analysis increases the effectiveness of the analysis and generates more valuable and accurate information for water management and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Trade-offs and synergies of economic-social-environmental aspects under water constraints • Integrated approach that couples supply constrained MRIO and MCDA. • Economy and job losses versus environment gains under industrial transition scenarios • Informs capital region's industrial transition plan for water regulation • Integrated policy supports to assess costs and benefits of various strategies and SDGs Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water assessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a "nexus" approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios including nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposition of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m3 or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Northeast China is the center of maize production in the country. • Assess varying impacts of drought across different maize growth stages in Northeast China. • Probability of extreme events in irrigation water shortage will increase in the future. • Irrigation infrastructure and efficient irrigation scheme and technologies are of great importance. Abstract Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) produces about one-third of the national maize output. Shortage of crop irrigation water is one of the main threat to the stable level of maize production in the NFR. Previous studies on the sensitivity of maize production to drought are typically based on field experiments and treat the maize growing season as a whole, with rare attention to the varying impacts of drought across different maize growth stages. Given the importance of NFR on China's food security, it is crucial to optimize the irrigation schedule to mitigate the adverse effects of drought. In this study, we employ Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model to investigate how climate change affects irrigation water requirement (IWR) of maize during different growth stages and under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that the NFR would experience a substantial increase in the probability of extremely shortage of crop irrigation water under future climate change. The ensemble simulation under future climate projections indicates more frequent demands for irrigation with substantially increased amount in the mid-season stage (G3) when maize is more sensitive to water deficit compared with other stages. These findings indicate that earlier planning of irrigation infrastructure and development of more efficient irrigation scheme and technologies is of great importance to secure maize production in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interregional free-trade of agricultural products is expected to transfer embodied (virtual) water from more to less water-productive regions. However, irrigation in semi-arid to arid regions may significantly push up agricultural productivity but cause local water scarcity. This may result in a puzzle: inter-regional trade may save overall water consumption but lead to more severe local water scarcity. An analogous puzzle may exist for farmland, for instance, trade may save farmland but not address farmland scarcity. To test the existence of these two important puzzles, we applied environmentally extended multi-regional input-output models to obtain the inter-regional virtual agricultural water and land transfer across 48 states of the conterminous U.S. and estimated their agricultural land and water footprints in 2017. Such a detailed analysis showed that while the land-abundant Midwestern states exported a sizable amount of virtual farmland to other densely populated areas and foreign nations, the water-stressed Western U.S. and Southwestern U.S. states, like California, Arizona, and New Mexico, exported considerable amounts of water-intensive crops such as fruits, vegetables and tree nuts to the Eastern U.S. and overseas, thus worsen the local water scarcity of those water scarce states. Our analysis highlights a critical dilemma inherent in an economic productivity-focused incentive regime: It frequently leads to increased withdrawal of scarce water. Therefore, resource scarcity rents need to be reflected in inter-regional trade with the support of local environmental policies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Toxic chemicals have severe impacts on ecosystem, climate change and human health, and the current toxic releases are inequitably distributed across regions. Investigating the toxic release embodied in final demand by states and income groups can reveal the responsibility transfer of different entities. In this paper, we extended the U.S. multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model with toxic chemical release data in 2017 to conduct the production- and consumption-based accounting of toxic release by each state, and the inter-regional transfer of embodied toxic release between states. In addition, this paper analyzed how the toxic releases and inter-state transfer of embodied toxic release have been driven by income groups across states. The results showed that the toxic release from production was highly concentrated on the central states and the Great Lakes Region, while the consumption-based accounting of toxic release was more equally distributed across regions in the US. The non-metallic and metallic products manufacturing sectors were the most important sectors for most states from both production and consumption-based perspectives and were also the most essential sectors for interregional flows of embodied toxic release from Great Lake Region to Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Our results also showed that the largest portion (41.88%) of embodied toxic releases were triggered by households' final demand, and that the consumption of the richest 35% of households contributed to more than 50% of the total toxic chemical releases triggered by total final demand of all households., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Environmental pollution in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is largely driven by socioeconomic forces outside the region as vast majority of manufacturing products produced in the region are destined to national and international markets. Given the remarkable economic transformation of the PRD in the past decades, this study investigates the impacts of local, provincial, national, and global socio-economic drivers on PRD's pollution dynamics under the background of significant economic restructuring and upgrading from 1987 to 2017. The results indicate that changes in pollution pattern were deeply shaped by the economic transformation. The share of PRD's emissions driven by international exports expanded significantly before 2007 as a result of the fast growth of international exports. The transformation of economic growth to domestic consumption driven model since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis had resulted in an increasing contribution share to the PRD's environmental pollution from local demand and trade with Rest of China (RoC). Similarly, as final demand structure evolving towards the high value-added manufacturing and services, the share of emissions driven by low value-added manufacturing (LVM) demand had decreased by an enlarged margin, while that driven by high value-added manufacturing (HVM) demand and services demand had moved in the opposite direction. The structural decomposition analysis shows that reduction in emission intensity remains the most effective way in pollution alleviation. The contribution of changes in production input structure also shifted from a strong impetus force before 2007 to a mitigating force afterwards due to significant technological progresses in the industrial sectors since the global financial crisis. With the marginal cost of reducing emission intensity becoming prohibitively expensive, the optimization of production structure and consumption pattern is likely to play more important role in future emission mitigation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40-60 (15.8-19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50-70 (17.7-21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.

Coastal mega-cities will face increasing flood risk under the current protection standard because of future climate change. Previous studies seldom evaluate the comparative effectiveness of alternative options in reducing flood risk under the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall. Long-term planning to manage flood risk is further challenged by uncertainty in socioeconomic factors and contested stakeholder priorities. In this study, we conducted a knowledge co-creation process together with infrastructure experts, policy makers, and other stakeholders to develop an integrated framework for flexible testing of multiple flood-risk mitigation strategies under the condition of deep uncertainties. We implemented this framework to the reoccurrence scenarios in the 2050s of a record-breaking extreme rainfall event in central Shanghai. Three uncertain factors, including precipitation, urban rain island effect and the decrease of urban drainage capacity caused by land subsidence and sea level rise, are selected to build future extreme inundation scenarios in the case study. The risk-reduction performance and cost-effectiveness of all possible solutions are examined across different scenarios. The results show that drainage capacity decrease caused by sea-level rise and land subsidence will contribute the most to the rise of future inundation risk in central Shanghai. The combination of increased green area, improved drainage system, and the deep tunnel with a runoff absorbing capacity of 30% comes out to be the most favorable and robust solution which can reduce the future inundation risk by 85% (±8%). This research indicates that to conduct a successful synthesized trade-off analysis of alternative flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty is bound to be a knowledge co-creation process of scientists, decision makers, field experts, and other stakeholders., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Urban expansion is one of the main factors driving terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) changes. Accurate accounting of TCS and rigorous quantification of its changes caused by historical urban expansion may help us to better predict its changes in the future. This study focuses on the carbon impacts of urbanization in China where the share of the urban population has increased from 18% in 1978 to 59% in 2017 and the growing will continue in the coming decades. Our results show that China's TCS decreased at an accelerating pace over the past three decades with an average reduction of 0.72TgC/y in 1980-1990 and 8.72TgC/y in 2000-2010, mostly due to conversion from cropland and woodland to urban land. Through simulating urban expansion under four scenarios from 2010 to 2050, we found a potential increasing trend in land conversion from woodland to urban land. This conversion trend would result in carbon storage loss at an average rate of 9.31TgC/y ∼ 12.94TgC/y in 2010-2050. The increasing trend in both land conversion and carbon storage loss is especially visible in the population centers of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Considering that the indirect emission effects of urbanization, such as farmland displacement, population migration, and land degradation, may be much larger, the overall emission impact of forthcoming urban expansion in China would increase the uncertainty of the nation's carbon emissions and potentially undermine China's targets as committed in the Paris Climate Agreement.

The well-known "virtual water hypothesis" states that water-deficient regions/countries could alleviate water stress through importing water-intensive products from water-abundant regions/countries. Although observed trading patterns do often not support this hypothesis, there is a lack of research to explore the reasons why trade patterns often do not support the intuitive virtual water hypothesis. To fill this important gap, we introduce comparative advantage theory in a quantitative way to track the driving forces of net virtual water export based on the spatial-temporal distribution of resource productivity and opportunity costs of land, labor and water use in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors across Chinese provinces between 1995 and 2015. The results show that regional differences in land productivity between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are the main forces determining the pattern of virtual water flows across major regions, and other resources such as labor and water have played only a limited role. Our study shows that the current market forces reflect the scarcity of land resources, but does not reflect the water scarcity in the context of interregional trade in China. Our findings suggest that the ongoing efforts to increase land productivity of agriculture in the southern regions would contribute to reducing water scarcity in the North and Northeast China Plain., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)