Search

Accurate delay evolution prediction plays a pivotal role in train rescheduling decision-making for the railway network. Existing studies on delay prediction predominantly centered around predicting delays for each train in the subsequent stations (i.e., following a train-oriented perspective). Furthermore, train operations in the railway network involve different types of entities (stations, trains, etc.), making the current graph/network models with homogenous nodes (i.e., the same kind of nodes) incapable of effectively capturing the interactions between the entities. This paper develops a network-oriented model to investigate the train delay evolution on railway networks, by predicting the delays of running trains in the network after a given time interval. The proposed model combines the GraphSAGE graph neural network (GNN) and the heterogeneous graph neural network (HetGNN) architecture, thus called SAGE-Het, enabling it to capture interactions between heterogeneous nodes (i.e., different types of nodes) based on different edges (e.g., edges between trains, trains, and stations). Additionally, SAGE-Het allows for flexible inputs in contrast to conventional machine learning techniques, whose inputs must meet the consistent dimension requirement (e.g., in the form of rectangular or grid-like arrays). The performance and robustness of the suggested SAGE-Het model are assessed in experiments on the data from two sub-networks of the China railway network. The experimental results demonstrate that SAGE-Het outperforms the existing delay prediction methods and some advanced HetGNNs used for prediction tasks in other domains; SAGE-Het demonstrates excellent scalability, capable of handling various types of nodes; the predictive performances of SAGE-Het under different prediction time horizons (10/20/30 min ahead) all exhibit better performance over other baselines; the accuracies are over 90 % under the permissible 3-minute errors for the three prediction time horizons. Specifically, the impact of train interactions on delay evolution is investigated based on the flexible input characteristic of the proposed model. The results illustrate that train interactions become subtle with the increase of train headways. This finding directly contributes to decision-making in situations where conflict resolution or train-canceling actions are needed. • A novel network-oriented approach is proposed to investigate the delay evolution in the railway network. • The proposed heterogeneous graph neural network approach allows for diverse heterogeneous nodes and flexible inputs. • The proposed approach has better predictive performance than the commonly used delay prediction methods. • The importance of train interaction on delay evolution is explored based on the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rolling stock connections and route conflicts of trains at terminal stations are critical to train delay propagation and prediction on the railway networks. Previous studies primarily focused on delay prediction/propagation from a macro perspective, without considering the two factors. To address this problem, a hybrid neural network architecture, called TLF-net, is proposed to predict departure delays at original stations (DDOSs), considering the rolling-stock connection and potential route conflicts in the railway network. TLF-net consists of a transformer, a long short-term memory (LSTM), and a fully-connected neural network (FCNN) block, to separately address variables with different characteristics. Based on the real-world data from two terminal stations in China, the experimental results show that the consideration of the potential route conflicts from the network can considerably improve TLF-net's prediction performance over the model that only considers train interactions on a single railway line. Also, it is proven that arrival/departure routes of consecutive trains are crucial for delay prediction, while using the transformer block can efficiently reveal the route conflict severity between arrival/departure routes. The sensitivity analysis to influence factors demonstrates the significance of considering the rolling stock connection and potential route conflicts. Finally, to support real-time railway traffic management, a train arrival delay prediction model from our previous study is integrated to predict the input of TLF-net (i.e., train arrival delays), enabling the proposed model to dynamically predict the DDOSs. This dynamic updating lengthens the prediction horizon (the prediction time ahead), making it better support real-time train traffic control and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]