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Diabetes mellitus (DM) has become the third chronic non-infectious disease affecting patients after tumor, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, becoming one of the major public health issues worldwide. Detection of early warning risk factors for DM is key to the prevention of DM, which has been the focus of some previous studies. Therefore, from the perspective of residents' self-management and prevention, this study constructed Bayesian networks (BNs) combining feature screening and multiple resampling techniques for DM monitoring data with a class imbalance in Shanxi Province, China, to detect risk factors in chronic disease monitoring programs and predict the risk of DM. First, univariate analysis and Boruta feature selection algorithm were employed to conduct the preliminary screening of all included risk factors. Then, three resampling techniques, SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE (BL-SMOTE) and SMOTE-ENN, were adopted to deal with data imbalance. Finally, BNs developed by three algorithms (Tabu, Hill-climbing and MMHC) were constructed using the processed data to find the warning factors that strongly correlate with DM. The results showed that the accuracy of DM classification is significantly improved by the BNs constructed by processed data. In particular, the BNs combined with the SMOTE-ENN resampling improved the most, and the BNs constructed by the Tabu algorithm obtained the best classification performance compared with the hill-climbing and MMHC algorithms. The best-performing joint Boruta-SMOTE-ENN-Tabu model showed that the risk factors of DM included family history, age, central obesity, hyperlipidemia, salt reduction, occupation, heart rate, and BMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pulmonary Tuberculosis is a major public health problem endangering people's health, a scientifically accurate predictive model is of great practical significance for the prevention and treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods: The reported incidence data of pulmonary tuberculosis were from the National Public Health Science Data Center (https://www.phsciencedata.cn/). The ARIMA, LSTM, EMD-SARIMA, EMD-LSTM, EMD-ARMA-LSTM models were established using the reported monthly incidence of tuberculosis reported in China from January 2008 to December 2018. The MSE, MAE, RMSE and MAPE were used to evaluate the performance of the models to determine the best model. Results: Comparing decomposition-based single model with undecomposed single model, it was found that: when predicting the incidence trend in the next year, compared with SARIMA model, the MSE, MAE, RMSE and MAPE of EMD-SARIMA decreased by 39.3%, 19.0%, 22.1% and 19.8%, respectively. The MSE, MAE, RMSE and MAPE of EMD-LSTM were reduced by 40.5%, 12.8%, 22.9% and 12.7%, respectively, compared with the LSTM model; Comparing the decomposition-based hybrid model with the decomposition-based single model, it was found that: when predicting the incidence trend in the next year, compared with EMD-SARIMA model, the MSE, MAE, RMSE and MAPE of EMD-ARMA-LSTM model decreased by 21.7%, 10.6%, 11.5% and 11.2%, respectively. The MSE, MAE, RMSE and MAPE of EMD-ARMA-LSTM were reduced by 16.7%, 9.6%, 8.7% and 12.3%, respectively, compared with EMD-LSTM model. Furthermore, the performance of the model were consistent when predicting the incidence trend in the next 3 months, 6 months and 9 months. Conclusion: The prediction performance of the decomposition-based single model is better than that of the undecomposed single model, and the prediction performance of the combined model using the advantages of different models is better than that of the decomposition-based single model, so the EMD-ARMA-LSTM combination model can improve the prediction accuracy better than other models, which can provide a theoretical basis for predicting the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis and formulating prevention and control policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The debate on the relationship between social capital and health is still ongoing. To enhance previous research, this study uses data drawn from China to analyse the situations in which social capital is related to good health and the various configurations that result in good health outcomes. Methods: Using the data of China Family Panel Studies, the conditions of age, gender, marriage, education, income, structural social capital and cognitive social capital were included to analyse the sufficient and necessary conditions for achieving good general health and their different configurations using the fsQCA method. Results: None of the listed conditions were prerequisites for excellent general health in terms of either their presence or their absence. The sufficiency analysis found 11 configurations with an average of 3–4 conditions per configuration; in no configuration was the condition of social capital present alone. Structured social capital and cognitive social capital exhibited negative states in configurations 1 and 2, respectively. The most prevalent factor in all configurations was the condition of age. Conclusions: The relationship between social capital and health is both positive and negative, with cognitive social capital playing a larger role in the positive relationship than structural social capital. Social capital is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for health, and it must be combined with a variety of other factors to promote health. A variety of methods can be used to promote an individual's health, as different populations require different approaches to good general health, and no single pathway applies to all populations. In the Chinese population, an individual's age is a significant determinant of their health status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease that is highly infectious and seriously damages human health. Reasonable prediction is of great significance to control the epidemic of influenza. Methods: Our Influenza data were extracted from Shanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess (STL) was adopted to analyze the season characteristics of the influenza in Shanxi Province, China, from the 1st week in 2010 to the 52nd week in 2019. To handle the insufficient prediction performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model in predicting the nonlinear parts and the poor accuracy of directly predicting the original sequence, this study established the SARIMA model, the combination model of SARIMA and Long-Short Term Memory neural network (SARIMA-LSTM) and the combination model of SARIMA-LSTM based on Singular spectrum analysis (SSA-SARIMA-LSTM) to make predictions and identify the best model. Additionally, the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Results: The influenza time series in Shanxi Province from the 1st week in 2010 to the 52nd week in 2019 showed a year-by-year decrease with obvious seasonal characteristics. The peak period of the disease mainly concentrated from the end of the year to the beginning of the next year. The best fitting and prediction performance was the SSA-SARIMA-LSTM model. Compared with the SARIMA model, the MSE, MAE and RMSE of the SSA-SARIMA-LSTM model decreased by 38.12, 17.39 and 21.34%, respectively, in fitting performance; the MSE, MAE and RMSE decreased by 42.41, 18.69 and 24.11%, respectively, in prediction performances. Furthermore, compared with the SARIMA-LSTM model, the MSE, MAE and RMSE of the SSA-SARIMA-LSTM model decreased by 28.26, 14.61 and 15.30%, respectively, in fitting performance; the MSE, MAE and RMSE decreased by 36.99, 7.22 and 20.62%, respectively, in prediction performances. Conclusions: The fitting and prediction performances of the SSA-SARIMA-LSTM model were better than those of the SARIMA and the SARIMA-LSTM models. Generally speaking, we can apply the SSA-SARIMA-LSTM model to the prediction of influenza, and offer a leg-up for public policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Donkey meat has low fat and high protein contents and is rich in various unsaturated fatty acids and trace elements that are beneficial to human digestion and absorption. IMF (intramuscular fat), also known as marbling, is an important indicator of the lean meat to fat ratio, which directly affects the tenderness and juiciness of the meat. At present, the underlying molecular variations affecting IMF content among donkey breeds are unclear. The Guangling donkey is an indigenous species in China. This study explored candidate regulatory genes that affect IMF content in Guangling donkeys. The IMF content of the longissimus dorsi muscle in 30 Guangling donkeys was measured. Six donkeys of similar age were selected according to age factors and divided into two groups, the high (H) and low (L) fat groups, according to their IMF content. Results: RNA-seq technology was used to compare the muscle transcriptome between the two groups. More than 75.0% of alternative splicing (AS) events were of the skipped exon (SE) type. A total of 887 novel genes were identified; only 386 novel genes were aligned to the annotation information of various databases. Transcriptomics analysis revealed 167 differentially expressed genes (DEGs), of which 64 were upregulated and 103 were downregulated between the H and L groups. Gene ontology analysis showed that the DEGs were enriched in multiple biological processes and pathways that are related to adipocyte differentiation, lipid synthesis, and neutral lipid metabolism. KEGG pathway analysis suggested that arachidonic acid metabolism, the HIF-1 signalling pathway, fructose and mannose metabolism, glycerophospholipid metabolism, and the AMPK signalling pathway were involved in lipid deposition. In addition, a gene–gene interaction network was constructed that revealed that the DEGs, including SCD, LEPR, CIDEA, DLK1, DGAT2, ITGAL, HMOX1, WNT10B, and DGKA, had significant roles in adipocyte differentiation and adipogenesis. The selected DEGs were further validated by qRT–PCR. Conclusion: This study improves the in-depth understanding of gene regulation and protein expression regarding IMF deposition and lays a basis for subsequent molecular breeding studies in Guangling donkeys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to construct Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the network relationships between COPD and its influencing factors, and the strength of each factor's influence on COPD was reflected through network reasoning. Elastic Net and Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) algorithm were adopted to screen the variables on the surveillance data of COPD among residents in Shanxi Province, China from 2014 to 2015, and construct BNs respectively. 10 variables finally entered the model after screening by Elastic Net. The BNs constructed by MMHC showed that smoking status, household air pollution, family history, cough, air hunger or dyspnea were directly related to COPD, and Gender was indirectly linked to COPD through smoking status. Moreover, smoking status, household air pollution and family history were the parent nodes of COPD, and cough, air hunger or dyspnea represented the child nodes of COPD. In other words, smoking status, household air pollution and family history were related to the occurrence of COPD, and COPD would make patients' cough, air hunger or dyspnea worse. Generally speaking, BNs could reveal the complex network linkages between COPD and its relevant factors well, making it more convenient to carry out targeted prevention and control of COPD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phaeocystis globosa is a harmful algal bloom (HAB) species worldwide. Using modified clay (MC) to control HABs and to mitigate their adverse effects is currently a commonly used method in China. In this paper, the effects of oxidized composite modified clay (OXI-MC) on P. globosa were studied from different perspectives. The results show that the OXI-MC could effectively remove P. globosa and inhibit both the growth of residual algal cells and the formation of new colonies. The P. globosa algal biomass removal efficiencies after 3 h reached 90% at a dose of 0.1 g/L, and the number of colonies with different particle sizes was greatly reduced. Compared with those of the control, the superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, catalase (CAT) activity, and malondialdehyde (MDA) content of the residual algae significantly increased, indicating that OXI-MC caused oxidative stress in the algal cells. In addition, we evaluated the effects of OXI-MC on the photosynthesis of residual microalgae and found that the maximal photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (PSII) under dark adaptation (Fv/Fm) and actual photochemical efficiency of PSII (ΦPSII) decreased, severely damaging the photosynthesis efficiency, implying that OXI-MC effected the photosynthesis system of P. globosa. The results of this study clarify that OXI-MC could remove the most of algal cells and break up the colonies of P. globosa by collision, flocculation, and releasing active substances, as well as inhibit effectively the growth and colony formation of residual P. globosa by causing oxidative stress, reducing photosynthesis activity, accelerating the degradation of polysaccharides, and inhibiting the formation of colonies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Yangquan, China, has taken a series of preventive and control measures in response to the increasing trend of Kala-Azar. In response, we propose a new model to more scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions., Methods: We obtained the incidence data of Kala-Azar from 2017 to 2021 from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Yangquan. We constructed Poisson segmented regression model, harmonic Poisson segmental regression model, and improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model, and used the three models to explain the intervention effect, respectively. Finally, we selected the optimal model by comparing the fitting effects of the three models., Results: The primary analysis showed an underlying upward trend of Kala-Azar before intervention [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.045, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.027-1.063, p  < 0.001]. In terms of long-term effects, the rise of Kala-Azar slowed down significantly after the intervention (IRR:0.960, 95%CI:0.927-0.995, p  = 0.026), and the risk of Kala-Azar increased by 0.3% for each additional month after intervention ( β 1  +  β 3  = 0.003, IRR = 1.003). The results of the model fitting effect showed that the improved harmonic Poisson segmental regression model had the best fitting effect, and the values of MSE, MAE, and RMSE were the lowest, which were 0.017, 0.101, and 0.130, respectively., Conclusion: In the long term, the intervention measures taken by the Yangquan CDC can well curb the upward trend of Kala-Azar. The improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model has higher fitting performance, which can provide a certain scientific reference for the evaluation of the intervention effect of seasonal infectious diseases., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Hao, Zhao, Zhang, Wu, Ren, Wang, Qiao, Cui and Qiu.)

Background: Brucellosis is a major public health problem that seriously affects developing countries and could cause significant economic losses to the livestock industry and great harm to human health. Reasonable prediction of the incidence is of great significance in controlling brucellosis and taking preventive measures., Methods: Our human brucellosis incidence data were extracted from Shanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess (STL) and monthplot to analyse the seasonal characteristics of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province from 2007 to 2017. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a combined model of ARIMA and the back propagation neural network (ARIMA-BPNN), and a combined model of ARIMA and the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) were established separately to make predictions and identify the best model. Additionally, the mean squared error (MAE), mean absolute error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model., Results: We observed that the time series of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province increased from 2007 to 2014 but decreased from 2015 to 2017. It had obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak lasting from March to July every year. The best fitting and prediction effect was the ARIMA-ERNN model. Compared with those of the ARIMA model, the MAE, MSE and MAPE of the ARIMA-ERNN model decreased by 18.65, 31.48 and 64.35%, respectively, in fitting performance; in terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE decreased by 60.19, 75.30 and 64.35%, respectively. Second, compared with those of ARIMA-BPNN, the MAE, MSE and MAPE of ARIMA-ERNN decreased by 9.60, 15.73 and 11.58%, respectively, in fitting performance; in terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE decreased by 31.63, 45.79 and 29.59%, respectively., Conclusions: The time series of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province from 2007 to 2017 showed obvious seasonal characteristics. The fitting and prediction performances of the ARIMA-ERNN model were better than those of the ARIMA-BPNN and ARIMA models. This will provide some theoretical support for the prediction of infectious diseases and will be beneficial to public health decision making.

The study aimed to study the related factors of hypertension using multivariate logistic regression analysis and tabu search-based Bayesian Networks (BNs). A cluster random sampling method was adopted to obtain samples of the general population aged 15 years or above. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that gender, age, cultural level, body mass index (BMI), central obesity, drinking, diabetes mellitus, Myocardial infarction, Coronary heart disease, Stroke are associated with hypertension. While BNs found connections between those related factors and hypertension were established by complex network structure, age, smoking, occupation, cultural level, BMI, central obesity, drinking, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, nephropathy, stroke were direct connection with hypertension, gender was indirectly linked to hypertension through drinking. The results showed that BNs can not only find out the correlative factors of hypertension but also analyze how these factors affect hypertension and their interrelationships, which is consistent with practical theory better than logistic regression and has a better application prospects.

In recent years, the incidence of human brucellosis (HB) in the Shanxi province has ranked to be the top five among the 31 China provinces. HB data in Shanxi province between 2011 and 2016 were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatial and temporal distribution of HB was evaluated using spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan analysis. The global Moran's I index ranged from 0.37 to 0.50 between 2011 and 2016 (all P < 0.05), and the "high-high" clusters of HB were located at the northern Shanxi, while the "low-low" clusters in the central and southeastern Shanxi. The high-incidence time interval was between March and July with a 2-fold higher risk of HB compared to the other months in the same year. One most likely cluster and three secondary clusters were identified. The radius of the most likely cluster region was 158.03 km containing 10,051 HB cases. Compared to the remaining regions, people dwelling in the most likely region were reported 4.50-fold ascended risk of incident HB. HB cases during the high-risk time interval of each year were more likely to be younger, to be males or to be farmers or herdsman than that during the low-risk time interval. The HB incidence had a significantly high correlation with the number of the cattle or sheep especially in the northern Shanxi. HB in Shanxi showed unique spatio-temporal clustering. Public health concern for HB in Shanxi should give priority to the northern region especially between the late spring and early summer.

This study aimed to obtain the prevalence of hyperlipidemia and its related factors in Shanxi Province, China using multivariate logistic regression analysis and tabu search-based Bayesian networks (BNs). A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was adopted to obtain samples among the general population aged 18 years or above. The prevalence of hyperlipidemia in Shanxi Province was 42.6%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that gender, age, region, occupation, vegetable intake level, physical activity, body mass index, central obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus are associated with hyperlipidemia. BNs were used to find connections between those related factors and hyperlipidemia, which were established by a complex network structure. The results showed that BNs can not only be used to find out the correlative factors of hyperlipidemia but also to analyse how these factors affect hyperlipidemia and their interrelationships, which is consistent with practical theory, is superior to logistic regression and has better application prospects.