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As online video service continues to grow in popularity, video content providers compete hard for more eyeball engagement. Some users visit multiple video sites to enjoy videos of their interest while some visit exclusively one site. However, due to the isolation of data, mining and exploiting user behaviors in multiple video websites remain unexplored so far. In this work, we try to model user preferences in six popular video websites with user viewing records obtained from a large ISP in China. The empirical study shows that users exhibit both consistent cross-site interests as well as site-specific interests. To represent this dichotomous pattern of user preferences, we propose a generative model of Multi-site Probabilistic Factorization (MPF) to capture both the cross-site as well as site-specific preferences. Besides, we discuss the design principle of our model by analyzing the sources of the observed site-specific user preferences, namely, site peculiarity and data sparsity. Through conducting extensive recommendation validation, we show that our MPF model achieves the best results compared to several other state-of-the-art factorization models with significant improvements of F-measure by 12.96, 8.24 and 6.88 percent, respectively. Our findings provide insights on the value of integrating user data from multiple sites, which stimulates collaboration between video service providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, our objective is to propose a stability concept within the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) that does not require knowledge about preferences of other decision makers (DMs) in the conflict and is flexible to analyze the conflict with variable horizon. For that we propose the use of the maximin decision rule within the GMCR. More specifically, we consider a GMCR with two DMs and introduce the concept of Maximinh stability with horizon h for a given DM. The Maximinh stability concept was inspired by the notion of limited-move stability with horizon h present in the GMCR literature and it is adequate for modeling cautious DMs in conflicts where they have no knowledge about the other DM’s preferences. We establish what is the relationship among the Maximinhstabilities for different horizons and the relationship among Maximinh stability and other GMCR stability concepts. Finally, we present an application to illustrate the proposed stability concept, namely, a neuroscience technological selection conflict in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, the increasing wind power penetration, with consequent randomness and variability, presents great challenges to power system planning and operation. Probabilistic power flow (PPF) has been developed to calculate the power flow under uncertain circumstances. However, the current wind power models are subject to specific probability distributions, limiting their accuracies in wider applications. Additionally, the cumulant method (CM)-based PPF, if nonlinear relationship is considered in, would face an impractically high computational complexity. To address these problems in modeling and cumulant calculation, this article proposes a novel generalized density/distribution fitting method (GDFM) combining with the Copula function to establish a joint probability model for wind power generation. A special impulse- mixed probability density (IMPD) integration method is also introduced to derive the input cumulants from the model. Finally, a fast cumulant method (FCM) is proposed to reduce the computational burden of output cumulant calculation while retaining a high accuracy in a nonlinear context. Case study on the IEEE-118 test system validates the effectiveness of the proposed methods, and a real application to a provincial power grid in China provides some useful power flow risk information for decision making. The whole FCM-based PPF scheme can be helpful for future power flow examination in power system planning and operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty of power system is intensified by the integration of large-scale renewable energy resources such as wind farm (WF). Considering the impact of system uncertainties, the probabilistic stability analysis methods have been used in the stability assessments of power system with the WF integration. However, in traditional probabilistic analysis methods, WF is normally considered as PQ bus or aggregated as one single-machine equivalent model regardless of wake effect, which might reduce the accuracy of probabilistic stability studies. In this article, a dynamic equivalent modeling method of WF for probabilistic stability assessments is proposed. The wake effect is considered in the modeling process and a practical four-machine clustering method is used in wind turbines clustering. Besides, the fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) is adopt to combine the similar WTs clustering results reasonably. Then, the WF is aggregated to a multi-machine equivalent model by capacity weighted method. Also, the established WF probabilistic model can be directly used in time-domain simulation based on Monte Carlo simulation and FDA. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed method is verified in an actual WF in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable low-voltage load forecasting is critical to optimal operation and control of distribution network and smart grid. However, compared to traditional regional load forecasting at high-voltage level, it faces tough challenges due to the inherent high uncertainty of the low-capacity load and distributed renewable energy integrated in the demand side. This paper proposes a novel hybrid ensemble deep learning (HEDL) approach for deterministic and probabilistic low-voltage load forecasting. The deep belief network (DBN) is applied to low-voltage load point prediction with the strong ability of approximating nonlinear mapping. A series of ensemble learning methods including bagging and boosting variants are introduced to improve the regression ability of DBN. In addition, the differencing transformation technique is utilized to ensure the stationarity of load time series for the application bagging and boosting methods. On the basis of the integrated thought of ensemble learning, a new hybrid ensemble algorithm is developed via integrating multiple separate ensemble methods. Considering the diversity in various ensemble algorithms, an effective K nearest neighbor classification method is utilized to adaptively determine the weights of sub-models. Furthermore, HEDL based probabilistic forecasting is proposed by taking advantage of the inherent resample idea in bagging and boosting. The effectiveness of the HEDL method for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting has been systematically verified based on realistic load data from East China and Australia, indicating its promising prospective for practical applications in distribution networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tracking a maneuvering target is an important technology. Due to complex environment and diversity of sensors, errors need to be optimized with respect to various motion states during the tracking process. In this paper, we first propose how to unify the coordinate system and data preprocessing in case of tracking using multiple sensors. We then combine fuzzy sets with a novel trace optimization method based on extended Kalman filter (EKF) with nested probabilistic-numerical linguistic information (NPN-EKFTO). We present a case study of trace optimization of an unknown maneuvering target in Sichuan province in China. We solve the case by using both the proposed method and the traditional EKF and offer comparative analysis to validate the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]