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Background: Current and future incidence and prevalence estimates of dementia are essential for public health planning.Objective: The objective was to establish prediction model of incidence and estimate the prevalence of dementia in the Chinese and worldwide population from 2020 to 2050.Methods: A model-based method was used to project the dementia prevalence from 2020 to 2050 in China, which required incidence, the mortality rate for individual without dementia, and the relative risk of death. Furthermore, we detected the impact of intervention on the prevalence projection for dementia using a simulation method. We applied the same method to other projections worldwide.Results: In 2020, the model predicted 16.25 million (95%confidence interval 11.55-21.18) persons with dementia in China. By 2050, this number would increase by approximately three-fold to 48.98 million (38.02-61.73). Through data simulation, if the incidence of dementia decreased by 10%every 10 years from 2020 after intervention and prevention, the number of dementia cases by 2050 was reduced by 11.96 million. This would reduce the economic burden by US $639.04 billion. In addition, using this model, dementia cases grew relatively slowly over the next few decades in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Japan, with percentage changes of 100.88%, 65.93%, and 16.20%, respectively.Conclusion: The number of people with dementia in China is large and will continue to increase rapidly. Effective interventions could reduce the number of patients drastically. Therefore, prevention and control strategies must be formulated urgently to reduce the occurrence of dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to mitigate global climate change and air pollution, the Chinese government has assigned high priority to expanding low-carbon power generation in China. Recent studies have shown that wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy option in China. Although many studies have estimated the generation potential of onshore wind power, their results vary widely from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh. Therefore, we examine the different assumptions in these papers and identify three main factors influencing the results. The three influencing factors are: weather data set, land utilisation factor, and wind turbine configuration. For our model-based analysis, we define a reference scenario which is used to compare the results. Our analysis shows using a different weather data set increases the generation potential to roughly 35,000 TWh. This is 54% higher than the generation potential of the reference scenario. The land utilisation factor also has a large influence, ranging between −10% and −51%. The studies' assumptions and data should be subjected to careful scrutiny, as the calculated wind power potentials are widely used to develop decarbonisation strategies for the energy system. • Study results on wind power potentials in China vary from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh • Influencing factors: weather data set, land utilisation, and wind turbine configuration. • Model-based sensitivity analysis with nine scenario settings. • Chosen weather data set has the highest impact on the calculated results with a variation of 54%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]