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• A SD-LMDI model was developed to analyze GHG mitigation potential in MSW sector. • Six scenarios were designed to simulate GHG emission mitigation potentials in 2050. • Economic development was the dominant factor for GHG emissions during 2000–2017. • Landfill gas utilization and MSW recycling were recommended as long-term measures. • Incineration was suggested as a short-term and mid-term mitigation measure. Fast urbanization and economic prosperity generate huge amount of municipal solid waste (MSW). It is therefore critical to identify the determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from MSW treatment and prepare potential GHG mitigation measures. A combined System Dynamics - Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model is developed to identify the driving forces of GHG emission generated from MSW treatment and explore the mitigation potentials. Shanghai, a typical megacity in China is selected as a case study. Results showed that economic development, population scale and emission intensity were driving forces to induce GHG emissions from MSW treatment, while generation intensity and treatment structure were the factors to mitigate GHG emissions from MSW during 2000–2017. Scenario analysis further revealed that landfill gas utilization and MSW separation improvement were the most effective measures in reducing GHG emissions from MSW treatment, leading to about 88.07% and 85.48% of reduction compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2050. Scenarios of improving incineration rate, reducing per capita MSW generation and restricting population growth will reduce GHG emissions by 72.29%, 30.06% and 0.30%, respectively. Utilizing landfill gas, improving MSW separation and promoting green behaviors are suggested to mitigate GHG emissions from MSW treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]