Search

• In this work we focus the optimal control of COVID-19 with the help of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs). • To find the role of factors/parameters in the transmision of the syndrome we find ratio of reproduction for the proposed model. • On the basis of sensitivity indecis of the parameters we apply Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) to control the sensitive parameters and hence formulate the optimal control model • With the help of Hamiltonian and Lagrangian we minimize the density of contaminated stuff and infected human population. The outbreak of the current pandemic begun from the first individual of a 55-year old from Hubei province in China, the disease instigated by the new coronavirus spreading across the world. Scientists presently speculate this coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, originated in a bat and by one way or another jumped to another creature, potentially the pangolin, which at that point gave it to people. The ailment is currently spreading between individuals with no animal delegate. Researchers are struggling to follow the infection back to where it started to become familiar with its spread. In the event that, for example, specialists can locate the soonest cases, they might have the option to distinguish the creature have where the infection hides. In March and April 2020, researchers detailed that this virus created normally. Coronavirus has been become of the serious global phenomena in the recent years and has negative effects in the entire world health and economy. The virus is believed to have been associated with a host animal which human contracted. Subsequently, human-to-human infection began. Through migration as humans have become complex with easy mobility the disease has traveled to the entire continent. Now, numerous scientist are going on in the hope of obtaining medication and vaccination to prevent the spread of the disease and mortality of the disease. It is important that we obtain quantitative and qualitative information about the etiology of this disease which is crucial. Mathematical modeling is capable of providing qualitative information on many parameters that guides the decision making of health practitioners. In this work we focus the optimal control of COVID-19 with the help of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). To find the role of factors/parameters in the transmission of the syndrome we find R 0 ; the ratio of reproduction for the proposed model. To find the role of parameters in the transmission of the syndrome we find R 0 ; the ratio of reproduction for the proposed model. On the basis of sensitivity indices of the parameters we apply Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) to control the sensitive parameters and hence formulate the optimal control mode. With the help of Hamiltonian and Lagrangian we minimize the density of contaminated stuff and infected human population. We focus the optimal control of COVID-19 with the help of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs). On the basis of sensitivity indices of the parameters we apply Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) to control the sensitive parameters and hence formulate the optimal control model. The major NPIs are, STAY HOME, SANITIZER (wash hands), EARLY CASE DETECTION (PCR Test) and FACE MASK. These NPIs helps in mitigation and reducing the size of outbreak of the disease. We check the existence of the optimal solution for the system. At the end, Using matlab we produce numerical simulations for validation of results of control variables. The results demonstrate that if there is no control (variables/interventios), 900 out 1000 susceptible individuals may be infected (exposed) in very short period. As such a circumstances no agency fighting against COVID-19 could be successful due to its limited resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mathematical modeling of vector-borne diseases and forecasting of epidemics outbreak are global challenges and big point of concern worldwide. The outbreaks depend on different social and demographic factors based on human mobility structured with the help of mathematical models for vector-borne disease transmission. In Dec 2019, an infectious disease is known as "coronavirus" (officially declared as COVID-19 by WHO) emerged in Wuhan (Capital city of Hubei, China) and spread quickly to all over the china with over 50,000 cases including more than 1000 death within a short period of one month. Multimodal modeling of robust dynamics system is a complex, challenging and fast growing area of the research., Objectives: The main objective of this proposed hybrid computing technique are as follows: The innovative design of the NAR-RBFs neural network paradigm is designed to construct the SITR epidemic differential equation (DE) model to ascertain the different features of the spread of COVID-19. The new set of transformations is introduced for nonlinear input to achieve with a higher level of accuracy, stability, and convergence analysis., Methods: Multimodal modeling of robust dynamics system is a complex, challenging and fast growing area of the research. In this research bimodal spread of COVID-19 is investigated with hybrid model based on nonlinear autoregressive with radial base function (NAR-RBFs) neural network for SITR model. Chaotic and stochastic data of the pandemic. A new class of transformation is presented for the system of ordinary differential equation (ODE) for fast convergence and improvement of desired accuracy level. The proposed transformations convert local optimum values to global values before implementation of bimodal paradigm., Results: This suggested NAR-RBFs model is investigated for the bi-module nature of SITR model with additional feature of fragility in modeling of stochastic variation ability for different cases and scenarios with constraints variation. Best agreement of the proposed bimodal paradigm with outstanding numerical solver is confirmed based on statistical results calculated from MSE, RMSE and MAPE with accuracy level based on mean square error up to 1E-25, which further validates the stability and consistence of bimodal proposed model., Conclusions: This computational technique is shown extraordinary results in terms of accuracy and convergence. The outcomes of this study will be useful in forecasting the progression of COVID-19, the influence of several deciding parameters overspread of COVID-19 and can help for planning, monitoring as well as preventing the spread of COVID-19., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)