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As a complex system under the joint action of man and nature, land use/cover directly or indirectly affects the environmental quality of the freshwater ecosystem. Studying the response of water environment quality to land use/cover change was significant to accurately simulate lake water quality and effectively enhance the management level. As an empirical model, the classical export coefficient model has been widely used and developed in agricultural non-point source pollution research because of its simple structure and convenient application. However, it assumes that the export coefficient of a particular type of land use/cover was constant, ignoring the influence of surface runoff and interception on the output intensity of pollutants in pollutant migration. This study improved the classical export coefficient model by adding factors such as precipitation, surface cover, and topography, evaluated the contribution of land use/cover to total nitrogen load into the lake in Dianchi Lake Basin, and applied the pollution assessment results to the identification of watershed environmental risk areas. The results showed that the improved export coefficient model could better simulate the relationship between land use/cover and total nitrogen load into Dianchi Lake from the basin. At the same time, spatial characteristics of the total nitrogen load contribution of the terrestrial could be represented. The high-risk areas in the basin were mainly cultivated land and construction areas with low vegetation coverage around lakes or downstream. The contribution per unit area to the TN load into the lake from areas with a high risk was 14.28 t/km 2 , which was 3.47 times that of medium-high-risk areas and 52.28 times that of the medium-risk area. Land use control measures in high-risk areas in the basin should be further strengthened, especially in the lakeside zone., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)