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Over the past twenty years, China has become the world's largest trading nation and a significant trading partner for most countries. Despite these important links, concerns regarding China's commercial and diplomatic goals persist due to its unique state-centric economic structure. This paper applies an augmented gravity model to tease out drivers of China's bilateral trade relationships, asking why some countries are more important than others as sources of Chinese imports. Our results show that both business and political considerations drive China's import decisions. Political friendliness with China, as measured by UN General Assembly voting records, or established trade agreements, has a positive impact on exports to China. The results further suggest that countries with official diplomatic ties with Taiwan export less to China. Membership in China's Belt and Road Initiative, however, does not generally translate into a significant increase in Chinese imports from the member country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we explore the effects of China's foreign aid on its exports. To do this, we use a sample of 165 countries during the period 2000–2014 and employ a gravity model. We find that the return on Chinese exports for every dollar spent on foreign aid is from $0.156 to $0.4, at the aggregate level. The aid provided in past periods continues to promote China's exports. We also show, while taking into account aid heterogeneity, that China experiences a higher return in terms of exports when providing development aid intended for infrastructure, to the recipients. Additionally, we find that China's international aid helps the country to trade more with similar income-level economies. Hence, it can, to a certain extent, foster South-South trade relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economic Series of the Bulletin of the L.N. Gumilyov ENU is the property of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

OpenStreetMap (OSM) is one of the most successful and wellknown projects in the field of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI). It has not only become supplement to basic mapping services and professional surveying data, but also a popular free spatial dataset in urban analysis. However, the completeness of OSM building data in China was relatively low in the past. As a result, there is a relatively small number of studies on OSM building data in China, especially in terms of spatial patterns and evolution of OSM building data. In response to this research gap, this article proposes an OSM building data evolution model that combines gravity model and tree model. The spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of OSM building data in the Yangtze River Delta region of China from 2014 to 2020 were systematically studied, providing insights and references for the future development of OSM building data in China. The research results indicate: (1) From 2014 to 2020, OSM building data in various cities in the Yangtze River Delta region grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 30%, but there were significant spatial differences; (2) In terms of space, due to the influence of urban economy, population, and education level, OSM buildings mainly evolve and develop along large cities, forming a local radial development structure around large cities. Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi-Nanjing-Xuzhou/Hefei is the main evolutionary path of OSM building data in the Yangtze River Delta region; (3) In terms of time series, the gap between cities gradually decreases with the development of time, and OSM buildings gradually expand and develop from large cities to small and medium-sized cities, with spatial differences gradually narrowing. However, when OSM buildings have a certain scale, the city size will limit the development of OSM buildings to some extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates linear and nonlinear impacts of political relations on China's service trade import and export to 8 countries from 2005 to 2019. The result shows that positive effect of political relations on both service trade import and export can be obtained. Using a threshold model, it is found that when the trading country's economy level reaches the first threshold, the role of political relations will change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a typical ecologically fragile area, the ecological security of the Loess Plateau has been seriously threatened. Ecological security patterns (ESP) have gradually become an effective method for protecting ecological security and supporting the management and sustainable development of ecosystems. Therefore, this study constructed a novel ESP based on ecological "function–structure", utilizing minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) to identify ecological source areas and corridors. Additionally, time scales were introduced into the ESP, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecological security in the Loess Plateau. The study revealed that the number of ecological sources decreased from southeast to northwest, with 27, 41, and 77 sources covering total areas of 4263.810 km2, 18,566.034 km2, and 113,209.595 km2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively. Similarly, the number and complexity of ecological corridors increased over the same time period, with 64, 85, and 105 corridors totaling lengths of 4579.326 km, 6526.996 km, and 7015.174 km, respectively. The expansion of ecological security zones was mainly observed in the southeast part of the Loess Plateau. Overall, the ESP of the Loess Plateau saw an improvement, with the southeastern part showing better ecological security than the northwestern part. These findings hold great significance for regional ecological security evaluations and are crucial for promoting ecological management and healthy development in the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The digital economy has become a new driving force for China's economic development in recent years, and it may contribute to solving the corresponding problems of resource and environmental pressure. Therefore, this study strives to explore whether the digital economy contributes to the green development of foreign trade. First, this study measures the digital economy development in China. Second, this study presents a list of environmental and polluting products and examines the impact of digital economy development on exports of representative products based on an extended gravity model. The main findings are as follows. First, the digital economy significantly promotes the green development of foreign trade. Second, the signing of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and the income level of importing countries and regions strengthen the role of the digital economy in promoting the green development of foreign trade. Third, the digital economy promotes the green development of foreign trade through green technological innovation. Finally, some policy implications are proposed based on the findings of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural trade, which involves the exchange of virtual water and land resources, can effectively regulate the allocation of resources among countries while enhancing the well-being of resource-rich and resource-poor nations. China's animal products trade market concentration is greater, and the livestock industry consumes more water than other agricultural sectors. In order to alleviate the pressure on China's domestic water and land resources and to ensure that Chinese residents have access to animal products, this article examines the trade situation and drivers of virtual water and land resources related to Chinese animal products trade. This study used the heat equivalent method to measure the virtual water and land flows of the import and export of beef, pork, and mutton from 1992 to 2018, which is followed by the gravity model to investigate the factors impacting China's flow of virtual land and water related to livestock products trade. We found that the economic development and the agricultural resources of exporters, as well as China's agricultural employment rates, have a stable beneficial impact on China's livestock imports. The population of importing nations, China's cultivated land area, and the livestock production index of importers and exporters have a positive impact on the export of livestock products from China. Our results remain robust following a series of additional tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Agricultural Outlook (1673-3908) is the property of Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The trade of agricultural products plays an essential role in agricultural development. Agricultural trade is more complicated and diversified than other industrial products, influenced by product characteristics for perishable. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is one of the most important markets for China's agricultural exports. This study aimed to analyze the impact of trade facilitation indicators on China's agricultural exports to ASEAN countries. A gravity model was adopted by taking the volume of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN countries from 2006–2020 as the dependent variable. Indicators such as economic freedom (EF), trade across borders (TAB), and infrastructure quality (Infra) were introduced that were representing trade facilitation as the core independent variable. Also, an empirical analysis was carried out using a mixed regression model. The results show that the three proxy indicators of trade facilitation had a significantly positive impact on the scale of China's agricultural exports to the ASEAN market. The results could play a guiding role in strengthening the cooperation between China and the ASEAN regarding trade facilitation and expansion of the scale of agricultural trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses a gravity model to analyse the effects of different trade standards on China's value-added and total exports in global value chains (G.V.C.s). The results indicate that harmonisation with international standards promotes both types of exports in China. Hence, the country should not neglect the implementation of standards. Mandatory standards have a greater impact on exports than voluntary standards. In addition, mandatory internationally harmonised standards have a greater trade promotion effect on total exports than on value-added exports. Voluntary country-specific standards have a greater trade inhibiting effect on value-added exports than on total exports. Voluntary internationally harmonised standards do not show statistically significant impacts on either export type. Therefore, emerging economies should optimise the scale and structure of standards, ensure their implementation, and improve their international harmonisation to promote exports and reap the benefits of joining G.V.C.s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the trade and welfare implications of further East Asian trade integration, through the signing of the China-Japan-Korea FTA, and continued trade tensions between the US and China. Our analysis uses a structural gravity approach to explore the effects of these cooperative and non-cooperative trade policies. Our key findings are: (i) for China, the FTA can compensate for continued trade tensions (ii) in terms of the FTA and for the members involved, reductions in tariffs are expected to lead to larger welfare gains compared to those from lower NTBs (iii) for the members involved, a deeper agreement will be more welfare enhancing. Overall, East Asian integration appears to be a more appealing prospect in light of tensions with the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a main stream method of landscape pattern optimization, the ecological network plays an important role in maintaining ecosystem stability, improving landscape connectivity, and promoting landscape sustainable development. Based on landscape connectivity index and morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), a comprehensive evaluation system of ecological patches was constructed in the main river basin of Liao River, and ecological sources were extracted. According to the habitat characteristics of the study area, the ecological cumulative resistance surface was constructed, and the ecological corridors and nodes were extracted by the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. The ecological network of the study area was comprehensively evaluated by using the network analysis method, and the importance level of the ecological corridor was divided by the gravity model, so as to put forward the optimization suggestions of the landscape pattern based on the ecological network. The results showed that the ecological network in the main river basin of Liao River is composed of 20 ecological sources, 108 ecological corridors, and 72 ecological nodes, with the distribution characteristics of dense east and sparse west. The main landscape components are cropland and woodland. The closure degree, line point rate, and connectivity index of the ecological network are 0.27, 1.50, and 0.51, respectively, and the cost ratio is 0.23. In the optimization of landscape pattern, priority should be given to the restoration of primary ecological sources and ecological corridors, followed by the ecological construction of secondary and tertiary ecological sources and ecological corridors, the rational use of engineering technology for habitat remodeling, and the adoption of the "patch-corridor-substrate" model to improve the stability and landscape connectivity of the regional ecosystem. The construction of ecological network in the main river basin of Liao River is of great significance to regional ecological security and biodiversity conservation, and provides data support for optimizing the landscape pattern of the basin and promoting regional sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs survival analysis to examine the duration of cultural goods exports from China. We use disaggregated product-level data from 1995 to 2020 to explore the export dynamics of Chinese cultural goods and investigate the determinants. We find that most of the export relationships are short-lived, with a median duration of one year. However, if Chinese cultural goods can survive in the foreign market during the early stage, they will face a lower probability of failure and tend to survive for a longer period. In addition, we show that cultural distance is more of an obstacle to the exports of cultural goods under the framework of the gravity model. These findings survive a variety of robustness checks and have important policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study performs the bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests, in order to investigate the time-varying causal relationship between the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the outbound tourism expenditure (OTM) in China. For this purpose, it introduces the variable of consumer confidence as a subjective psychological perception variable into the gravity model and explores its impact on the outbound travel. The results reveal that CCI tends to exert positive impacts on the OTM in most subsamples. That is to say that the Chinese consumer confidence can be considered as a catalyst for the OTM. However, the impact tends to be negative during times such as the global financial crisis, caused by the appreciation in the renminbi. In turn, OTM does not affect CCI. This suggests that the only change of private expenditure on outbound tourism cannot alter consumer confidence regarding the current economic and income situation. These findings compel the foreign tourism authorities to take CCI into account, especially when predicating the tourism arrivals from China, and hence plan their tourism strategy accordingly. Also, Chinese travel agencies should ideally take notice of the CCI in order to plan their international tour packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global Value Chains (GVC) have reshaped the landscape of international trade. The quality and intensity of regulation significantly impacts firms' competitiveness and their ability to engage in GVC. Economic literature suggests that regulation of product market competition has a detrimental effect on trade by decreasing productivity, innovation, and economic growth. This paper expands existing knowledge on this relationship by examining the influence of product market regulation (PMR) on value-added trade flows in an augmented gravity model. We constructed a data panel with trade data from 40 OECD and BRICS countries in the period from 2000 to 2015 and combined it with an extensive multi-level indicator set on PMR developed by the OECD. By disentangling the PMR indicators, we account for the heterogeneity of regulation and potential different trade effects. Overall, our evidence suggests that PMR has a negative impact on trade. Further, our results indicate that the negative impact stems largely from barriers to trade and investment. For the BRICS, our results suggest the contrary: We observed an overall positive trade effect of PMR, mainly driven by barriers to trade and investment. Our results support identifying policy areas in which regulatory reform can improve the integration in GVC and emphasize different approaches to economic policy, particularly in emerging economies such as the BRICS. Moreover, the results underline the detrimental effects of increasing protectionism and tariff hikes, a phenomenon that we increasingly observe in recent years from the world's largest economies, such as the United States and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study attempts to recognize the effects of the Pakistan–China free trade agreements (PCFTA) on promoting trade between the two economies. Design/methodology/approach: Following the concept of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and free trade agreements, the study first identifies those commodities in which Pakistan and China have a robust RCA and then analyze the effect of PCFTA on the export value of those commodities for the bilateral trade between Pakistan and China. The study used the panel data in which more than the top 150 importers (j) have been selected for each case of Pakistan and China for the period of 2003–2015. Findings: The study concludes that even with the higher convergence rate, the good RCA does not guarantee a positive effect of the free trade agreement on the commodities. Originality/value: The study contributes to the existing literature by integrating RCA with the gravity model by adopting a sequential mode for Pakistan–China free trade agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study was to calculate feed market development potential. Based on panel data from 2010 to 2020, the paper empirically examines the main factors affecting the development of feed market in China. On the basis, it calculates the development potential of feed market with the help of the expanded gravity model. The results showed that the level of financial input had the greatest impact on development potential of feed market in China, followed by the level of infrastructure, urbanization and human capital. The development potential of feed market in China has great room for improvement. At the regional level, southwest, central and south China are regions with huge potential for feed market development, east China and northeast China are regions with pioneering potential for feed market development, and north China and northwest China are regions with re-shaping potential for feed market development. The research conclusion can provide a useful reference for tapping the development potential of feed market and boosting the high-quality development of feed industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examines import determinants of Pakistan with the top 28 trade partners from 2002 to 2018. To achieve this objective, the augmented gravity model of trade has been applied by incorporating both time-variant and time-invariant variables. In addition, the analysis quantifies the impact of free trade agreements (FTA) signed by Pakistan with China and other trade partners. The results show that along with income and distance, FTA, common language, and common border plays an essential role in imports of Pakistan with its main trade partners. In addition to identifying trade determinants, the impact of adherence to a particular trade agreement was also examined. The results indicate that FTA signed by Pakistan with China and other trade partners has created trade opportunities for participating countries, highlighting the importance of trade liberalization for the long-run development of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has achieved success in implementing the rural revitalization strategy and promoting the development of new urbanization. However, there are still many problems in the research and implementation on urban–rural integration development, such as insufficient research at the township level, unclear recognition of development patterns, and disconnection from land-use planning. Therefore, taking Hanchuan city in the Wuhan metropolitan area as a case study, this research constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of urban–rural integration development based on both on the current and potential level of development, and identifies the spatial characteristics and patterns in the study area. This study found that: (1) The comprehensive evaluation result of urban–rural integration development in Hanchuan City shows that a high level of development units are mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest, and gradually decreases from the northeast and southwest, indicating that towns in the central area are relatively weakly driven by the radiation of the surrounding growth poles. (2) Xiannvshan Street, Makou Town, Chenhu Town, and Xinyan Town with the highest comprehensive evaluation values were selected as the centers of urban–rural integration development in four directions. (3) Four typical patterns of urban–rural integration development, which are town gathering, agro-tourism interaction, industry-trade driven, and agricultural service, are derived by the gravity model and classification assignment method according to their respective centers. (4) According to the urban–rural integration development patterns, land-use strategies such as centralization for promoting linkage level of towns, differentiation for arranging various resources and infrastructures, and demonstration for optimization of experience to the whole area are proposed in a targeted manner. This study has important implications for the preparation and implementation of urban–rural integration development and provides effective planning guidance for promoting social equity and accessibility of facilities in the metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial correlation structure of provincial tourism economy development is an important factor to promote the overall tourism economy. This paper aims to construct the methodology of provincial tourism competitiveness evaluation system from the new perspective of networking. Firstly, by utilizing the panel data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2019, the entropy method was developed to calculate the provincial tourism competitiveness. Then, the gravity model was introduced to the Social Network Analysis, and spatial correlation network and its characteristics of tourism competitiveness evaluation were elaborated. This paper reveals the spatial–temporal network evolution process of regional tourism competitiveness in China. Additionally, it provides a scientific basis for obtaining a deeper understanding of China's provincial tourism competitiveness and a theoretical basis for the government to formulate the future direction and differentiation policy of provincial tourism competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's migration boom has reshaped its domestic economic pattern and social structure, resulting in a typical urbanization model dominated by massive internal migration. By using the 1% National Population Sample Survey data in 2005 and 2015, this study depicts and analyses the spatial pattern of intercity migration in China and its changes using the Gini index, network analysis approach, and gravity model. Individual‐level data enable us to reveal that the distribution of migrants among destinations and origins has become considerably balanced over the decade, although destinations are markedly more concentrated than origins. The migration network is stable but also becomes significantly disperse owing to the increasing short‐distance and intra‐provincial migration. Even with a burgeoning railway system, migration distance generally matters more than before, particularly for migration from Central and Western China. The results provide new insights to universal migration theories and implications to regional development and population redistribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the key concerns in geographical and social sciences is to analyze and predict population migration due to its close association with urban planning, industrial upgrade, and urban development. Although the most prevailing framework, the gravity model, has been applied in its various versions, there is little information available about how city industry structure functions as the invisible distance in the modeling of intercity population migration. Here, we introduce a family of improved gravity models by considering city industry structure proximity, complementarity, and diversities. The resulting models predict population migration patterns in good agreement with the flows observed. Our best model (GM_COM) outperforms the benchmark model (GM_O) by 24.6 percent in terms of mean absolute percentage error. Further analysis shows the improved models offer several advantages with respect to the base models. They have better prediction accuracies for flows with high intensities and long distances. The best model demonstrates obvious improvement when flows occur in eastern China. Given the significant improvement of the proposed models, this study broadens existing research by absorbing city industry structure features into the gravity model and deepens our understanding in the population migration as a function of distance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's power system driven by the ubiquitous power internet of things, a new operation mode—"multi‐station integration" (MSI) has emerged. The novel business model can improve the energy utilization efficiency and promote the cross‐border business integration. In some earlier studies, mainly focused on conceptual analysis of application scenarios and operation modes of MSI. However, quantitative analysis that measure MSI popularize remain under development. This article highlights the recent advance achievements in MSI of digital power grid regarding transformation of Chinese eight economic zones. From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, the gravity model provides a framework for describing the spatial diffusion of MSI mode relative to eight economic zones (EEZ) in China. In addition, compared to conventional gravity model, this study improved four aspects of the basic spatial gravity model ‐ diffusion capacity, absorptive capacity, the gravitation coefficient, and economic distance. It is found that the spatial diffusion of MSI is subjected to eight economic zones interaction while the spatial heterogeneity is inevitable. Thus, the resulting represents a radial decline, with the three coastal economic zones as the center, gradually decreasing to the inland and western regions, especially for those coastal economic regions with large diffusion impacts. Meanwhile, we also discuss the advantages, impacts, and limitations of MSI spatial diffusion as valuable references for future development direction of MSI mode. Ultimately, some of future development recommendations for MSI emerging field is put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the nexus between inbound tourism and bilateral trade in the context of China. Within a gravity model framework, both the cointegration approach and fixed-effects panel technique is applied to conduct the research. The long-run equilibrium relationship between China's inbound tourism and its bilateral trade flows is ascertained through cointegration tests. Results also show that foreign tourists are positively associated with trade flows between China and its tourism origin countries, while inbound leisure tourists to China have a larger effect on bilateral trade than business tourists. In addition, China's export activity is more elastic to inbound tourism than is its import activity. These findings reveal important patterns that are useful for policymakers to promote international trade regarding the different influences of inbound tourism. Further, this study extends research on China's inbound tourism and bilateral trade by providing new empirical developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributes to the existing literature by empirically analyzing the impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's bilateral trade. Applying an augmented gravity model to trade flows between China and its 190 trading partners, of which 140 countries have signed the BRI agreements sequentially, during the period 2012–2020, we find that: (1) The BRI can significantly increase the extensive and intensive margins of China's exports and imports, while reducing China's trade surplus. (2) The BRI stimulates trade quantities, while lowering unit values of traded products. (3) These effects vary by income level and product category. In short, the BRI has been quite effective in strengthening China's global trade position and it is also beneficial to both trading parities. Policy implications are proposed accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on rural socioeconomic development, which has driven the spatial restructuring of rural settlements. Numerous studies have analyzed the spatial restructuring of rural settlements, yet socioeconomic factors and their impacts on villages and rural settlements have been ignored. This paper implemented a dual-scale coupling approach to identify the restructuring direction of rural settlements in Tingzu Town, Hubei Province, China. At the village scale, a population-land-industry evaluation index system was constructed to calculate the development potential of villages. The advanced gravity model was used to measure the intervillage connections, and K-means clustering was applied to divide the village groups, both approaches were used to identify the central villages. At the patch scale, kernel density estimation and accessibility analysis were applied to identify the spatial distribution characteristics of rural settlements, and rural settlements were classified into nine types based on the analysis of density-accessibility spatial combination characteristics. Four types, including relocation and evacuation, characteristic protection, suburban integration, and agglomeration and upgrading were proposed to restructure rural settlements. The restructuring direction and strategies of each type were determined by combining the influence scope of each central village, delineated by the weighted Voronoi diagram and the actual development needs of rural settlements. This study contributes to our understanding of the relationship involved in the restructuring of rural settlements and is of great practical significance for guiding the optimization of rural settlement layouts. • The spatial restructuring of rural settlements was analyzed at dual scale. • Intervillage connections were measured using the advanced gravity model. • Density-accessibility combination characteristics were analyzed at the patch scale. • Four types of rural settlements and their restructuring directions were identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether the rapid expansion of international trade after China's WTO entry in 2001 promotes the spread of severe acute respiratory syndromes (SARS) in 2003. Examining the relationship is helpful to distinguish the hidden costs of trade openness. This paper uses Frankel and Romer (1999, The American Economic Review, 89, 379) framework to construct the geography‐based instruments by applying province‐country gravity relation for causal identification. Utilising cross‐section data of SARS cases of 31 provinces in China, our two‐stage least squares regression results show that international trade accelerates the spread of SARS. Cross‐country evidence also suggests the causal relation. In addition, we find that the people's inter‐provincial mobility driven by trade expansion drives the spread of epidemic diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking metropolitan areas as space carriers has become the engine of the Chinese government in its promotion of high-quality development, and this has also become an important measure by which to balance regional development. We used Zipf's law and the gravity model to study the urban scale distribution characteristics of the Kashgar Metropolitan Area (KMA) in this paper. We also constructed a spatial structure judgment vector for the KMA and put forward the development objectives of different circles. The findings show the following: (1) large cities have a high primacy of development, while small and medium-sized cities are underdeveloped. At present, the KMA is a concentrated monocentric-pattern metropolitan area, with Kashgar City as its core city. (2) The urban built-up area of Kashgar City is expanding to the east and south, where it has broken through the administrative boundary and become integrated with the urban built-up area of Shule County. The spatial structure characteristics of the KMA have been further clarified. The KMA forms three circles: core, middle, and outer. (3) Tumxuk City, Bachu County, Yecheng County, Shache County, and other counties are far from the core city and cannot be connected with Kashgar, but they are closely related to the surrounding cities, forming the Bachu–Tumxuk Urban Group and the Shache–Zepu–Yecheng Urban Group. This study contributes to the understanding of the characteristics of urban scale distribution and the spatial structure of metropolitan areas in arid regions, as well as providing guidance for the formulation of policies for the development of different circles in the KMA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous regions across China have introduced "dual carbon" policies, yet the response of cities to these policies remains unclear. In this study, we used emission data from 271 Chinese cities for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020 to construct a complex network of urban carbon emissions with a modified gravity model. To further investigate the drivers of the "dual carbon" policy diffusion, we conducted a simulation of network evolution under the two policy diffusion mechanisms of coercion and learning. Our findings indicate that the "dual carbon" policy exhibits a network diffusion effect, with cost-effectiveness serve as a critical factor influencing its spread. And the China's low carbon price lacks incentives for reduction, carbon pricing needs to be increased and differentiated emission reduction incentives, penalties for over-emission, and carbon quotas based on the type of decoupling of the city need to be introduced to facilitate the diffusion of policies. Additionally, through counterfactual scenario analysis and an exploration of network structural characteristics, we highlighted the vital role of cities with high betweenness centrality within urban agglomerations in facilitating efficient policy diffusion. This study also offers a process for selecting pilot cities, providing a valuable reference for future policy initiatives. • Introduce a quantitative network method for future evolution of dual carbon policy. • The dynamic process of "dual carbon" policy diffusion among cities was simulated. • Tailor emission incentives, penalties, and quotas by urban decoupling types. • Highlights the importance of carbon price and vital cities during policy diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The polarization and diffusion effects of landscape patterns are important features of megalopolis development. Under the urbanized effects, green space is a key spatial unit in delivering vital ecosystem services for sustainable urban planning. However, currently, fast urban developing is swamping the green space. In this study, by tracing landscape pattern changes of a fast-developing megalopolis, the Chengdu-Chongqing Megalopolis in the southeast of China, and using land-use data from 1980 to 2020, we aimed to determine the polarization and diffusion effects of the megalopolis and their impacts on the green space within and between the cities. We found that: (1) during the past four decades, spatial expansion of the megalopolis mainly occupied grassland and farmland, triggering an increase in landscape fragmentation; (2) based on socio-economic indicators, the spatial-attraction network analysis showed a significant polarization effect; however, based on the natural landscape, this analysis demonstrated a more scattered pattern; (3) importantly, the megalopolis developed at quite a similar pace, which caused the green rural area between the central cities demonstrating an encroached trend by the urbanization. To promote sustainability of the fast-developing megalopolis, we suggest that the boundary of the green space should be broadened to form a green network in which natural green space and urban green space are interconnected, improving the connectivity of habitats within the megalopolis for urban biodiversity. Our study implied that maintaining the green buffer shall be considered in advance for sustainable megaregional planning and establishing resilience of the fast-developing megalopolis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial inequilibrium phenomenon is apparent during China's rapid urbanization in the past four decades. As the fertility rate decreases and the population ages, this phenomenon will become more critical. To accurately forecast the future economic development of China, it is necessary to quantify the attractiveness of individual cities. This study introduces web search data to quantify the attractiveness of cities with a fine spatial scale (prefecture-level city) and relatively long-term span (nine years). Results confirm that the estimated city attractiveness can unravel a city's capability to attract labor force, and suggest that tourism and health care functions of a city have a positive effect to the city's attractiveness. Additionally, China's north-south gap in economic development has been widened in the past decade, and 11 cities with nationwide influence have prosperous development potential. This study provides a new lens for predicting China's economic development, as well as its spatial patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the data of China's service trade and diplomatic events with 45 countries, this paper examines the effects of diplomatic relations on service trade based on the gravity model. Through an empirical analysis, the results proved that good diplomatic relations can significantly promote the export of China's service trade and that the effects of diplomatic relations on trade have a clear distinction regarding different political positions. Our results support the view that diplomatic relation does an important role in international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Guangdong University of Technology is the property of Journal of Guangdong University of Technology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article investigates the impact of institutional quality on China's trade with belt and road economies by testing the augmented gravity model framework. Our empirical analysis is based on 16 years of balanced panel data of 65 belt and road economies. We use the instrumental variable estimator developed for a panel data model to address the potential endogeneity issue. We distinguish the vital role of institutions in trading partner countries in shaping this result. Our outcomes outline an interesting story about the association between institutional quality and China's export to and import from belt and road countries. We find that the weaker voice and accountability and political stability in B&R countries negatively affect China exports, while China import from B&R economies shows a statistically positive effect of institutions. Our findings are robust to employs a panel pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation method. As part of wider trade integration, we conclude that the B&R countries should strengthen their institutions. The results of this study have several implications for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to analyze the trade between China and 97 countries that have an important place in the bilateral trade of China in the period of 2008-2019 with the extended gravity model and to determine the determinants of trade. In the study, the potential impact of ASEAN and APEC member countries on Chinese trade was investigated, apart from the per capita incomes, populations and distances of the countries. In addition, the effect of energy imports required for industrial production on Chinese exports is also analyzed as another dummy variable for OPEC countries. Empirical results show that the GDP and population growth of dependent and independent countries are positively affected by trade, and as the distance increases, trade is negatively affected. The dummy coefficients of ASEAN, APEC and OPEC show that they are positive and statistically significant. Due to the fact that ASEAN and APEC consist of Asian countries and therefore are close to China, it has been observed that they are compatible with gravity model theory. The positive effect of OPEC member countries on Chinese exports was determined as importing the energy required for industrial production and converting intermediate goods into value-added products and exporting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of international electronic commerce (IEC) on export trade increases along with its expanding scale. Based on relevant data and the gravity model of China's IEC export trade, this paper develops a theoretical model that can be used in IEC scenarios, applies regression equations, a Hausman test, and other empirical methods to verify relevant data, and performs a robustness test. The purpose of this paper is to explore the mechanism of IEC impact on China's trade, and hopefully to study the temporal structural changes of the impact of IEC activities on China's export trade based on the financial crisis and European debt crisis variables. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the large sample of China's trade selected in this paper. It can also determine the changes in the distance effect of international trade in the era of IEC, and reveal the mechanism by which IEC applications help foreign trade enterprises overcome economic crises. Four key conclusions are obtained as follows. First, the development of IEC has significantly promoted the expansion of China's export trade scale. Second, in the context of the global financial crisis and European debt crisis, the positive promotion effect of IEC on exports is not significant. Third, the promotion effects of IEC on China's exports to both developing and industrialized countries are significant, with the impact on developed country exports being slightly greater. Fourth, although the geographical distance for measuring transportation costs has a negative effect on China's exports, such effect has been greatly weakened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a far‐reaching initiative of China's active engagement in global affairs and is seen to determine the future fate of Eurasia. Previous studies about states' interactions with China in the BRI either give suggestions on further actions or selectively depict how participants interact with China in a non‐comparative way. With the BRI event data collected that covers multiple modes of BRI interactions, this paper takes the initiative to explore the determinants of states' interactions with China in the BRI. With the spatial gravity model, this paper finds that economic size, market quality, geographic proximity, and political and economic amity are closely associated with states' interactions with China in the BRI, which further contributes to the broad literature of the application of the gravity model as well as the interaction of states with China under the new era of China's more active, confidential, and assertive foreign policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We find that the average quality of scrap copper in international trade has improved. • We quantitatively analyze the impact of the ban by combining a gravity and DID model. • We describe the impact of China's ban on the domestic scrap copper import pattern. • We find that the environmental impact decreases in China, but increases worldwide. The international trade weight of scrap copper has exceeded 6 million tons annually over the past two decades. China introduced the "National Sword" policy in 2017, which brought uncertainty to the international recycling of scrap copper. We use the international scrap copper trade figures from 1998 to 2019 in UN Comtrade, and seek to analyze the impact of China's import ban by setting up a difference-in-differences (DID) model based on the gravity model. The results show that 1) The ban has promoted the development of regional trade and improved the quality of scrap copper in international trade. The unit value of imported scrap copper in China has risen by 58%. 2) China's import ban has reduced the import weight of scrap copper by 68.6% and its value by 44.4% without the influence of other socioeconomic factors. 3) China's import of copper scrap is concentrated in coastal provinces. Guangdong Province has been most heavily affected. The imports of low-quality copper scrap in Guangdong have decreased by 94%. 4) The import ban reduced the environmental impact in China by 36.6%, but the global environmental impact has increased because of the gap in recycling technology, especially in developing countries. These discoveries will be beneficial to predict the future of international scrap copper recovery, and help rule makers formulate trade and environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing fragmentation of production across national borders and the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have become salient features of the global economy in the past decades. This paper examines the role of PTAs in promoting the integration of domestic industries into global value chains (GVCs) based on the experience of China, a country that has emerged as a key link in East Asian and global production networks in recent years. We conjecture that both the presence of PTAs and the depth of these agreements matter for GVC participation. Furthermore, PTAs that contain strong provisions with regard to investment protection and services are particularly likely to stimulate the expansion of GVC linkages. This is because strong investment protection provisions may reduce the disruptions that hostile government policy may generate for the entire production chain. Rigorous PTA provisions regarding services may help facilitate the provision of services, which are not only critical in enabling the emergence of GVCs, but are also becoming essential inputs in GVC trade. Empirical analysis of the effect of the PTAs signed by China on the GVC participation of 16 Chinese industries between 2005 and 2015 lends substantial support to our hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general objective of this paper is to study the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on international trade. Due to the decline in the world trade and the rise of trade protectionism since 2010 has prompted the Southeast and East Asian countries to develop a larger trade bloc, i.e known as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) counter the decline in trade and income growth. In the process of RCEP establishment, ASEAN and China had play a vital to bring all the members in the region together and formed a single bloc to push an economic recovery and to further economic cooperation and development. This paper plan to examine the effect of the RCEP on trade flows on the members and the Gravity Model Method (GM) to be used to examine the subject. Also, the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index will be calculated mainly to look the performance of trade growth across members. Based on the GM its seems that China significantly gain from the RCEP, i.e earn a positive effect from trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the ex-post trade effects of China's multilateral, regional and bilateral trade liberalization using augmented gravity and panel data estimation methods for the period 1995–2016. China's accession to the WTO was revealed to have had a significant impact on the volume of trade as well as on bilateral exports and imports. Regional trade agreements and the majority of bilateral trade agreements were found not to be effective in increasing China's foreign trade. Only the agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Switzerland were effective in increasing China's trade volume. Moreover, the results for Chile were driven by increases in both exports and imports, while for Costa Rica and Switzerland only by increased imports from these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides empirical evidence on how political relations affect the tourism market. We use monthly data to identify the pattern of short-lived effects of political shocks in the tourism market. A political relation shock has an immediate effect on Chinese outbound tourism, and then the effect is amplified in the next month before it vanishes in the following months. Particularly, the negative political shocks, namely political disputes, are responsible for most of the effects on outbound tourism. Moreover, we investigate the specific mechanism in China through which political relation shocks affect outbound tourism. We find that government interference by issuing travel warnings plays a crucial role in the mechanism. Further analysis on tourists' demand shows that deterioration in political relations itself has no direct effects on tourists' demand. However, when accompanied by the issuance of travel warnings, the negative political shocks significantly reduce tourists' willingness to travel to the opposing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in promoting Chinese outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) in the presence of rising economic policy uncertainty in China's partner countries. We postulate that the signing of BITs should help stimulate COFDI because the treaties send a credible signal to foreign investors about the host country's intent to protect Chinese investment, and make it more difficult for the host country to violate its treaty obligations. BITs that contain rigorous investment protection and liberalization provisions, in particular, should be more likely to encourage COFDI as they directly influence Chinese investors' expectations about the stability, predictability, and security of the host market. However, while BITs generally promote COFDI, host country economic policy uncertainty may also limit their effectiveness. This is because uncertainty tends to undermine investor confidence, trigger capital flows from high- to low-risk countries, and dampen commercial activities. Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation models of the determinants of COFDI to 188 countries between 2003 and 2017 lend substantial support to our conjectures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-border e-commerce has gradually expanded in international trade markets over the past decades. This paper analyzes the determinants of the volume of cross-border e-commerce in a gravity model framework. Moreover, the paper explores the role of internet popularity and finds a significant promotion effect on the volume of cross-border e-commerce. Furthermore, by utilizing cross-border express delivery data, the analysis indicates a significant difference in the impacts of the determinants between the aggregate and consumer levels and provides an important addition to the literature on e-commerce and international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has numerous free trade agreements with various countries. In this research it will be examined who benefits from those free trade agreements. The sample includes 27 countries trading with China but 13 of these countries have signed a free trade agreement with China, or roughly half of all the available countries in our sample. The sample data are from 2001 – 2017. An adjusted gravity model and a linear regression was carried out. While those countries that have made free trade agreement with China experienced modest or no increase in export to China, China itself experienced significant increase in export to its free trade partners after the agreement took place. In comparison, we carried out a linear regression of the total 27 countries where the trading countries experienced increase in export to China and China itself experienced increase in export to these countries as well. It is therefore safe to conclude that China is a beneficiary of free trade agreements at least as much as it´s trade partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine whether the establishment of the 16 + 1 Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries in 2012 resulted in significant trade creation. For that purpose, we used a theoretically consistent gravity model and a panel dataset consisting of 167 countries and covering the period 2001–2019. The results show a slowdown in Sino-CEEC trade after 2012, indicating that the cooperation has so far not led to significant trade growth. The estimates also indicate that the cooperation could have greater positive effects on China's trade with non-EU CEEC, however, we do not find sufficient evidence for this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While numerous studies have evaluated the role of international borders, few efforts have been made to assess the influence of domestic borders on travel during COVID-19. In China, the nearly three-year travel control, starting in early 2020, has caused considerable fluctuations in public perceptions and sentiments. Domestic travel behaviors were disrupted, and in some regions, even reshaped. This study evaluates border effects for domestic travel in China from 2019 to 2021. Utilizing short-term intercity travel flow data obtained from Baidu Map, we configured and performed a series of modified gravity models to reveal provincial border effects at three levels of detail. Several major conclusions can be drawn from the results: First, there is a consistent border effect on domestic travel within China, both pre-pandemic and during the pandemic. Second, border effects are directional, as they vary for inbound and outbound travel and depend on the origin and destination. Third, border effects exhibit clear spatial patterns that are associated with location and travel distance. Fourth, the impacts of COVID-19 on border effects are predominantly temporary; however, in some instances, they may be long-term. The results highlight the necessity of considering borders when estimating travel flows using spatial interaction models. This study also sheds light on related policymaking, as restricting or loosening travel controls at borders can have profound impacts on economic activities and disease transmission. • Several modified gravity models are configured to reveal border effects in different levels of detail. • There exists consistent border effect for domestic travel in China, even before COVID-19. • Border effects are found to vary for inbound and outbound travel and depend on the origin and destination. • Border effects exhibit clear spatial patterns that are associated with location and travel distance. • The impacts of COVID-19 on border effects are predominantly temporary; however, in some instances, they may be long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monitoring of megaregion boundaries (MBs) is of vital importance for optimizing land use decision-making. However, the morphological structure of megaregions is currently insufficiently identified due to the nontransparent proprietary or inherent deficiency data sources. Thus, this study utilized land cover products integrated with morphological approaches to delineate the evolving trajectories of China's megaregions from 1992 to 2020. Firstly, core areas of megaregions and periphery affected areas were extracted from urban land density maps based on the gravity model and landscape metrics. Secondly, contiguous urban-rural fringes were improved based on the morphological operations and the rank-size distribution. Thirdly, urban land was automatically allocated to megaregions, considering planning policies. Furthermore, three indicators (gross domestic product, population, and land use density) are considered to validate our results, and our extracted MBs show a better understanding than the administrative divisions. The dynamic expansion patterns of twenty identified MBs were captured. As urbanization continues, the boundaries between megaregions become increasingly blurred and eventually merged into large-scale continuous megaregions that extend far beyond administrative divisions. Our study provides valuable insights for megaregion planning, including the effective urban management policies, the role of core cities in each megaregion in terms of radiation and capability. • We identified the evolving trajectories of China's megaregions based on land use products from 1992 to 2020. • We developed a morphological approach for delineating contiguous urban-rural fringes. • The identified MBs shows more detailed information on socioeconomic and land use patterns than the administrative divisions. • We proposed feasible policy suggestions on the megaregion planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional logistics has become an important direction of logistics development. The rationality of regional logistics network layout will affect the regional development. And the measurement and calculation of node gravity is an important aspect affecting the layout of logistics network. Nowadays, the traditional gravity model cannot measure the condition of a network properly. This paper focuses on the nodal gravity measurement in the logistics network and constructs an improved gravity model considering the role of policy. Quantifying the policy factors makes the measurement more realistic. We test our model on a famous regional logistics network in China. Result shows that cities are greatly influenced by policies, which change the node gravity obviously and even change the gravity level of logistics. This paper shows that the traditional gravity model ignores the impact of policy quantification on logistics gravity, and the improved gravity model that proposed in this paper has more practical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]