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Objective: Liver cancer is a major health concern globally and in China. This analysis investigated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with respect to etiologies and risk factors for liver cancer in China and worldwide. Methods: Global and China-specific data were collected on liver cancer deaths, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. Liver cancer etiologies were classified into five groups and risk factors were categorized into three levels. Each proportion of liver cancer burden was calculated in different geographic regions. The joinpoint regression model were used to assess the trends from 1990--2019. Results: Liver cancer accounted for 484,577 deaths worldwide in 2019 with an ASR of 5.9 per 100,000 population. China had an elevated liver cancer death ASR in 2019 and males had an ASR 1.7 times the global rate. The global ASR for DALYs peaked at 75--79 years of age but peaked earlier in China. Hepatitis B virus was the prominent etiology globally (39.5%) and in China (62.5%), followed by hepatitis C virus and alcohol consumption. In high sociodemographic index countries, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has gained an increasing contribution as an etiologic factor. The liver cancer burden due to various etiologies has decreased globally in both genders. However, metabolic risk factors, particularly obesity, have had a growing contribution to the liver cancer burden, especially among males. Conclusions: Despite an overall decreasing trend in the liver cancer burden in China and worldwide, there has been a rising contribution from metabolic risk factors, highlighting the importance of implementing targeted prevention and control strategies that address regional and gender disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The purpose of this study is to assess the burden of thyroid cancer over the course of 30 years in 204 countries and territories. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database was analyzed to extract information on prevalence, deaths, DALYs(disability-adjusted life-years), YLL(years of life los), YLD(years lived with disability), and their corresponding age-standardized rates at global, regional, and national levels. The primary focus of the study was to examine trends in thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019, specifically looking at the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) for ASPR, ASDR, and ASDR. Additionally, the study investigated the relationship between cancer burden and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Results: Globally, there will be approximately 18.3 million thyroid cancer (TC) cases in 2019; China and the USA are projected to be the most significant with 310,327 and 220,711 cases (16.17 and 14.82 cases per 100,000 people, respectively).Over the period from 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence rates exhibited a global rise, whereas deaths and DALYs saw a decrease(EAPC:1.63, –0.15- –0.14, respectively). Significantly, the age-standardized prevalence rate increased in 21 GBD regions, affecting 195 out of 204 countries or territories. Over the studied period, thyroid cancer cases, deaths, and DALYs were consistently higher among females than males. Furthermore, a higher Socio-demographic Index was associated with increased age-standardized prevalence rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this experiment was to evaluate the spatial pattern and temporal trend of colorectal cancer (CRC) burden attributed to dietary risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. Numbers and age-standardised rates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and corresponding average annual percentage change (AAPC) were determined. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the temporal trends of CRC deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. In China, the number of diet-attributable CRC deaths and DALYs in 2019 were 90.41 (95% uncertainty interval: 65.69, 114.67) and 2234.06 (1609.96, 2831.24) per-1000 population, marking 2.05% and 1.68% annual increases since 1990, respectively. The region with the highest increase in age-standardised rates (ASRs) of diet-related CRC deaths and DALYs was in Taiwan with an AAPC of 2.00% (1.51, 2.48), whereas the highest decline in ASRs of CRC deaths and DALYs was observed in Hong Kong with an AAPC of −0.63% (−0.90, −0.35) (all P < 0.05). Nationally, men suffered higher CRC deaths and DALY burdens attributable to dietary risks than did women. Regarding the specific diet group, diets low in calcium, milk, and whole grains contributed to CRC deaths and DALYs the most. Diet is an important contributor to increasing CRC burden in China. Necessary measures should be taken to kerb the growing burden attributed to dietary factors, particularly in males and in regions with middle Socio-demographic Index or lower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemiologic characteristics and attributable risk factors of ischemic stroke in China have changed over the past three decades. An upto- date analysis on deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), prevalence, incidence, and attributable risk factors of ischemic stroke for China is needed. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of burden and attributable risk factors of ischemic stroke at national level in China by sex from 1990 to 2019. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. All data used in this study was derived from the 2019 GBD study. Deaths, DALYs, prevalence, incidence, and attributable risk factors of ischemic stroke in China by sex from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized deaths rate decreased by 3.3%, age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 4%, age-standardized prevalence rate increased by 33.5%, and age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke in China increased by 34.7%. In 2019, ambient particulate matter pollution became an important risk factor, whereas household air pollution from solid fuels was no longer a major risk factor for ischemic stroke in China. Burden of ischemic stroke was higher in China compared to other regions. Ambient particulate matter pollution among men, and diet high in sodium, smoking, household air pollution from solid fuels among women account for the increased deaths/DALYs due to ischemic stroke in China. Conclusion: Our study revealed that great changes have occurred in burden and attributable risk factors of ischemic stroke in China in the past three decades. Distinct sex-specific differences are observed in burden and attributable risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear. Methods: The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age–period–cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age‐standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI −0.1 to 0) in females. The age‐standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI −1.1 to −0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI −2.8 to −1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age‐standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age‐standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females. Conclusion: The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age‐standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cirrhosis continues to be the most common cause of chronic liver disease-related deaths globally, which puts significant strain on global health. This report aims to investigate the patterns of cirrhosis in China, the United States, India and worldwide from 1990 to 2019 through an epidemiological analysis of the disease utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 database., Methods: Download the GBD database's statistics on liver cirrhosis deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for the years 1990-2019 worldwide as well as for China, the United States and India. Utilize techniques like age-period-cohort interaction, decomposition analysis, study of health inequities, Joinpoint model and Bayesian Average Annual Percentage Change model to process the data., Results: The main age group affected by cirrhosis disease, according to the results, is 50-69 years old. According to the Joinpoint model, there has been a negative worldwide Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in the burden of cirrhosis between 1990 and 2019. Only the USA's AAPC is positive out of the three nations that were evaluated (albeit its 95% confidence interval spans 0). These are China, India and the United States. Forecasting models indicate that the prevalence of cirrhosis will keep rising in the absence of government action. According to decomposition analysis, the main factors contributing to the rising burden of cirrhosis are population ageing and size, whereas changes in the disease's epidemiology slow the disease's growth. Research on health disparities indicates that, between 1990 and 2019, there was a downward trend in health disparities between various locations., Conclusion: Health organizations across different areas should take aggressive measures to address the worrisome prevalence of cirrhosis., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: Liver cancer is a major health concern globally and in China. This analysis investigated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with respect to etiologies and risk factors for liver cancer in China and worldwide., Methods: Global and China-specific data were collected on liver cancer deaths, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. Liver cancer etiologies were classified into five groups and risk factors were categorized into three levels. Each proportion of liver cancer burden was calculated in different geographic regions. The joinpoint regression model were used to assess the trends from 1990-2019., Results: Liver cancer accounted for 484,577 deaths worldwide in 2019 with an ASR of 5.9 per 100,000 population. China had an elevated liver cancer death ASR in 2019 and males had an ASR 1.7 times the global rate. The global ASR for DALYs peaked at 75-79 years of age but peaked earlier in China. Hepatitis B virus was the prominent etiology globally (39.5%) and in China (62.5%), followed by hepatitis C virus and alcohol consumption. In high sociodemographic index countries, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has gained an increasing contribution as an etiologic factor. The liver cancer burden due to various etiologies has decreased globally in both genders. However, metabolic risk factors, particularly obesity, have had a growing contribution to the liver cancer burden, especially among males., Conclusions: Despite an overall decreasing trend in the liver cancer burden in China and worldwide, there has been a rising contribution from metabolic risk factors, highlighting the importance of implementing targeted prevention and control strategies that address regional and gender disparities., Competing Interests: No potential conflicts of interest are disclosed., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors.)

Background To explore the impact of quarantine measures on the cause of death. Methods We use time series analysis with the data from death cause surveillance database of Suzhou from January 2017 to December 2019 to estimate the expected deaths from January to June 2020 and compare these expected deaths with the reported numbers of deaths. Results After the implementation of epidemic prevention measures in Suzhou in the first 3 months, overall number of all-cause deaths declined for 5.36, 7.54 and 7.02% compared with predicted numbers. The number of deaths from respiratory causes and traffic accidents declined shapely by 30.1 and 26.9%, totally. When quarantine measures were released (April–June), however, the observed numbers of total deaths exceeded the predicted deaths. People aged over 70 accounted for 91.6% of declined death number in respiratory causes and people aged over 60 accounted for 68.0% of declined death number in traffic accidents. Women over the age of 80 benefited the most from respiratory prevention (accounts for 41% of all reductions), whereas women aged over 60 benefited the most from traffic control (44%). Conclusions Overall, the whole population benefited from the epidemic prevention measures especially elderly females. This study is a useful supplement to encourage the government to develop regular preventive measures under the era of normalized epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Both extreme temperature events (ETEs) and air pollution affected human health, and their effects were often not independent. Previous studies have provided limited information on the interactions between ETEs and air pollution., Methods: We collected data on deaths (non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory) in Zibo City along with daily air pollution and meteorological data from January 2015 to December 2019. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to explore the health effects of ETEs on deaths. Non-parametric binary response model, hierarchical model and joint effect model were used to further explore the interaction between ETEs and air pollution in different seasons. Meanwhile, subgroup analysis by gender and age (≥ 65 years old and < 65 years old) was conducted to identify the vulnerable population., Results: ETEs increased death risk, especially for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths. Heat waves had a stronger impact than cold spells. Cold spells had a longer lag and fluctuating trend. Heat waves had a short-term impact, followed by a decrease. Females and those aged ≥ 65 were more affected, but subgroup differences were not significant. During ETEs and non-ETEs, there were different effects on deaths with per IQR increase in air pollutant concentrations. Joint effect models revealed that there was a significant interaction between ETEs and air pollution on non-accidental deaths. The interaction between PM 2.5 and cold spells was antagonistic in the cold season. In the warm season, the health effects of heat waves and high O 3 concentration were enhanced. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) of cold spells and PM 2.5 in total population was -0.09 (95 % CI: -0.17, -0.01), and 9 % (95 % CI: 1 %, 17 %) of the total effect was attributable to interaction. Subgroup analysis confirmed the interactions in females and those aged ≥ 65., Conclusions: Significant association observed between ETEs and deaths. Females and ≥ 65 age groups were vulnerable. There were interactions between ETEs and air pollution. The effect of PM 2.5 on deaths decreased during cold spells, while the effect of O 3 increased during heat waves. In addition to improving air quality, it is necessary to further strengthen the prevention and control of ETEs., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Highlights • Media event of deaths after HepB aroused attention on vaccine safety in China. • Reassuring information of small risk of fatalities following immunization provided. • Progress of developing vaccine safety monitoring in China were illustrated. Abstract Background The national Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI) surveillance system in China (CNAEFIS) has collected AEFI reports -including deaths following all vaccines used in China since 2008. Aims To review reports of AEFI-associated death cases from 2010 to 2015 to assess potential vaccine safety issues. Methods Descriptive analysis of epidemiologic characteristic of AEFI-associated death cases and standard causality assessment for reported causes of deaths. To estimate the risk of death after vaccination, we used population data, administered doses and live births to calculate denominators. Results During 2010–2015, 753 deaths were reported to CNAEFIS from mainland China. Highest numbers were reported in 2013 and 2014 when reporting peak of AEFI-associated deaths occurred after media reports concerning "death following Hepatitis B vaccination" in China. About 95% of deaths were in children <5 years of age and males accounted for 60%. Most common vaccines associated with reports of fatal AEFIs were vaccines in national immunization schedule. In causality assessment, 120 (16.0%) deaths were classified as vaccine-associated reactions such as anaphylactic reactions and disseminated BCG infections; 594 (78.9%) deaths were identified as coincidental events. The main causes of death were asphyxia, and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. The overall estimated AEFI-associated death rates were: 0.26 per million vaccination doses administered and 0.09 per million population. The neonatal AEFI death rate was 0.77 per million live births. Conclusions These data provide reassuring information about the small risk of death following immunization. They also illustrate sensitivity of passive reporting to public information and that peaks in serious AEFI reports should be interpreted with caution. Continuous monitoring and scientific causality assessment for serious AEFIs, including AEFI-associated deaths is imperative to ensure public confidence in the immunization program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The aim of this study is to describe, visualize, and compare the trends and epidemiological features of the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020., Setting: Data were obtained from the database of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NIDSS) and reports released by the National and local Health Commissions from 2004 to 2020. Spearman correlations and Joinpoint regression models were used to quantify the temporal trends of RIDs by calculating annual percentage changes (APCs) in the rates of mortality., Results: The overall mortality rate of RIDs was stable across China from 2004 to 2020 ( R = -0.38, P = 0.13), with an APC per year of -2.2% (95% CI: -4.6 to 0.3; P = 0.1000). However, the overall mortality rate of 10 RIDs in 2020 decreased by 31.80% ( P = 0.006) compared to the previous 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The highest mortality occurred in northwestern, western, and northern China. Tuberculosis was the leading cause of RID mortality, and mortality from tuberculosis was relatively stable throughout the 17 years (R = -0.36, P = 0.16), with an APC of -1.9% (95% CI -4.1 to 0.4, P = 0.1000). Seasonal influenza was the only disease for which mortality significantly increased ( R = 0.73, P = 0.00089), with an APC of 29.70% (95% CI 16.60-44.40%; P = 0.0000). The highest yearly case fatality ratios (CFR) belong to avian influenza A H5N1 [687.5 per 1,000 (33/48)] and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis [90.5748 per 1,000 (1,010/11,151)]. The age-specific CFR of 10 RIDs was highest among people over 85 years old [13.6551 per 1,000 (2,353/172,316)] and was lowest among children younger than 10 years, particularly in 5-year-old children [0.0552 per 1,000 (58/1,051,178)]., Conclusions: The mortality rates of 10 RIDs were relatively stable from 2004 to 2020 with significant differences among Chinese provinces and age groups. There was an increased mortality trend for seasonal influenza and concerted efforts are needed to reduce the mortality rate of seasonal influenza in the future., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Zhao, Wang, Wang, Shi, Jiang, Tseng, Liu, Chan and Zhang.)

Flood, drought, hail, low temperature and frost disasters from low temperature and frost (DLTF), and snowstorm are the five main meteorological disasters (MDs) in China. Based on the collection of historical documents during 1950-2013 and official records between 2012 and 2013, this paper analyzed the temporal trends of affected area induced by MDs during 1950-2013 and the spatiotemporal characteristics of disaster frequency in recent 2 years in China. Besides, the direct economic losses and deaths caused by MDs were further discussed at a provincial level. Results showed that the affected area of MDs, especially flood, drought and DLTF significantly increased during the past 60 years. Flood was the most frequent disaster in China during 2012 and 2013, followed by hail. Spatial patterns of disaster frequency showed that there were more frequent floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River basin, droughts in central and southwest China, hails in north, northwest and southwest China, DLTFs and snowstorms in north, northwest China and individual areas in south China. However, the economic losses caused by MDs were higher in economically developed provinces, and the deaths were higher in mountain regions. Additionally, flood was the major disasters type that contributing to the most losses in most regions of China. These results play an important theoretical guiding role in meteorological disaster prediction, disaster prevention and reduction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of deaths attributable smoking in China, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Methods: Using 2000-2019 death data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, we estimated age-period-cohort effects on smoking attributable mortality, and decomposed of differences in smoking-attributable deaths in 1990 and 2019 into demographic factors. Results: From 1990 to 2019, smoking-attributable deaths increased in China, which was due to population growth and demographic aging. From 1990 to 2019, both age-standardized smoking attributable mortality rates trended downward across countries. Among four countries, age rate ratios (RRs) for smoking-attributable mortality increased with age, while period and cohort RRs decreased with year. Conclusion: The age-standardized mortality rates, period effects and cohort effects of smoking attributable mortality in China, Japan, UK, and US have been declining in both sexes from 1990 to 2019, which suggests that smoke-free policies, help to quit tobacco use, improved health education, more accessible healthcare service, and increased taxes have been effective. Additionally, increased smoking attributable deaths in elderly should got more attention., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Wen, Xie, Shi, Liu, Liu and Yu.)

Systematic evaluations of the cumulative effects and mortality displacement of ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution on deaths are lacking. We aimed to discern the cumulative effect profile of PM exposure, and investigate the presence of mortality displacement in a large-scale population. We conducted a time-series analysis with different exposure-lag models on 13 cities in Jiangsu, China, to estimate the effects of PM pollution on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (2015–2019). Over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive models were integrated with distributed lag models to estimate cumulative exposure effects, and assess mortality displacement. Pooled cumulative effect estimates with lags of 0–7 and 0–14 days were substantially larger than those with single-day and 2-day moving average lags. For each 10 μg/m3 increment in PM 2.5 concentration with a cumulative lag of 0–7 days, we estimated an increase of 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.72), 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.38, 0.88), and 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.01, 1.01) in pooled estimates of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Both PM 10 and PM 2.5 were associated with significant increases in non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality with a cumulative lag of 0–14 days. We observed mortality displacement within 30 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that risk assessment based on single-day or 2-day moving average lag structures may underestimate the adverse effects of PM pollution. The cumulative effects of PM exposure on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality can last up to 14 days. Evidence of mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths was found. • Maximum effect estimates were found at around 1-week cumulative PM exposure. • Cumulative PM exposure over 14 days increases all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. • PM exposure may primarily advance death among the frail subpopulation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To examine the rising casualty rate related to electric bicycle usage. Design Analysis of the Hangzhou Police Bureau's data on electric-bicycle-related injuries and deaths. Setting Hangzhou, China, 2004-2008. Patients or subjects Electric-bicycle riders. Main outcome measure Electric-bicycle-related casualty rates in Hangzhou from 2004 to 2008. Results There was a significant average annual increase in electric-bicycle-related casualty rates of 2.7 per 100 000 population (95% CI 1.5 to 3.9, p=0.005). At the same time, overall road traffic and manual-bicycle-related deaths and injuries decreased. Conclusion As it is difficult to ban the use of electric bicycles in China, laws, rules and regulations need to be reinforced and strengthened. New regulations should be created for the safety of electric bicycle riders and others on the road, and mandatory helmet use should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new dynamic compartmental model was proposed to investigate the disease burdens of cancer. • The number of undiagnosed gastric cancer (GC) cases was estimated. • The effect of endoscopic screening coverage, frequency and initiating time on GC disease burdens in China were evaluated. Gastric cancer (GC) incidence and mortality in China remained high due to delayed diagnosis and accounted for about half of the world's GC cases and deaths. Early detection with endoscopic screening and consequent timely treatment can significantly improve survival. This study aimed to explore the long-term population impact of endoscopic screening on national GC disease burdens in China. Most of previous studies investigated the disease burdens of cancer using Markov model or age-period-cohort (APC) model, which are difficult to estimate the population size of undiagnosed cases. In this paper, we proposed a new dynamic compartmental model based on GC natural history and calibrated model outputs to diagnosed GC cases and GC-related death counts using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We investigated the impact of screening strategies with various coverage (10%, 40%, 70%) and frequency (every 1, 3, 5 years) on disease burdens. We estimated that 2.22 (95%CI: 1.97–2.47) million Chinese are living with GC in 2019, among which, 42.7% (40.3–45.0%) remained undiagnosed. Without systematic screening, we projected 10.46 (9.07–11.86) million incident cases and 7.35 (6.59–8.11) million GC-related deaths over the next 30 years (2019–2049). Screening with coverage rate at 10%, 40%, 70% every 3 years could prevent 0.85 (0.63–1.06), 2.32 (1.79–2.86), and 3.04 (2.38–3.70) million incident cases, and prevent 1.17 (1.01–1.32), 3.08 (2.70–3.46), and 3.93 (3.46–4.40) million deaths respectively, compared with 'no screening' scenario. Screening would substantially increase the number of diagnosed GC cases within the first three years of program initiation, but this number would quickly reduce below 'no screening' scenario. Three-yearly screening at the above coverage rates would reduce the proportion of undiagnosed GC cases to 38.8% (36.9–40.7%), 25.5% (23.4–27.6%), and 17.8% (16.0–19.6%) by 2049, respectively. Delaying implementation of the screening program would substantially reduce its effectiveness. Initiating national endoscopic screening programmes would likely have a major effect on reducing GC incidence and mortality in China. Health resources should be substantially increased and directed to treatment of GC to cope with the initial rise in diagnosed GC cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China in December 2019 and has become a pandemic that resulted in more than one million deaths and infected over 35 million people worldwide. In this study, a continent-wide analysis of COVID-19 cases from 31st December 2019 to 14th June 2020 was performed along with socio-economic factors associated with mortality rates as well as a predicted future scenario of COVID-19 cases until the end of 2020., Methods: Epidemiological and statistical tools such as linear regression, Pearson's correlation analysis, and the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were used in this study., Results: This study shows that the highest number of cases per million population was recorded in Europe, while the trend of new cases is lowest in Africa. The mortality rates in different continents were as follows: North America 4.57%, Europe 3.74%, South America 3.87%, Africa 3.49%, Oceania and Asia less than 2%. Linear regression analysis showed that hospital beds, GDP, diabetes, and higher average age were the significant risk factors for mortality in different continents. The forecasting analysis since the first case of COVID-19 until 1st January 2021 showed that the worst scenario at the end of 2020 predicts a range from 0 to 300,000 daily new cases and a range from 0 to 16,000 daily new deaths., Conclusion: Epidemiological and clinical features of COVID-19 should be better defined, since they can play an import role in future strategies to control this pandemic.

Background: The treatment of critically ill patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized in Wuhan has been reported. However, the clinical characteristics of patients who died of COVID-19 in regions with relatively scarce healthcare resources remain unknown., Methods: In this retrospective study, a total of 14 patients who were admitted from January 18 to February 11, 2020 and died of COVID-19 were evaluated. The epidemiological, symptomatic, laboratory, radiological and treatment records were reviewed and analyzed., Results: The mean age of the 14 patients was 56.7 (SD 15.3) years, and 8 (57.1%) were older than 50 years. Eight (57.1%) were men, and 11 (78.6%) had one or more high risk factors. The most common chronic diseases among these patients were cardiovascular disease (7, 50.0%), hypertension (6, 42.9%), and chronic kidney disease (5, 35.7%). General symptoms included cough (12, 85.7%), fever (11, 78.6%), and dyspnea (10, 71.4%). The median duration from the onset of symptoms to death was 11 (IQR 6.5-19.5) days, and the median duration from admission to death was 4.5 (1.0-11.8) days. Patients who died within 4.5 days had more severe pulmonary lesions, significantly reduced lymphocytes and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Most patients had organ dysfunction, including 13 (92.9%) with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), 4 (28.6%) with cardiac injury, 3 (21.4%) with acute kidney injury, and 3 (21.4%) with liver dysfunction., Conclusions: Elderly SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with comorbidities, especially those with ARDS and severe chest CT findings on admission, are at increased risk of death and deserve special attention and quality medical treatment.

In 2018, there were more than 371 million cigarette smokers and 12. 6 million electronic cigarette users, with 340.2 million non-smokers exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) in China, which resulted in heavy tobacco-attributable disease burden. According to the definition by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), tobacco is a level 2 risk factor that consists of three sublevel risk factors, namely, smoking, SHS, and chewing tobacco. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the trends in deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to tobacco, smoking, SHS, and chewing tobacco by sex in China from 1990 to 2017 and to explore the leading causes of tobacco-attributable deaths and DALYs using data from the GBD 2017. From 1990 to 2017, the tobacco-attributable death rates per 100,000 people decreased from 75.65 [95% uncertainty interval (95% UI) = 56.23-97.74] to 70.90 (95% UI = 59.67-83.72) in females and increased from 198.83 (95% UI = 181.39-217.47) to 292.39 (95% UI = 271.28-313.76) in males. From 1990 to 2017, the tobacco-attributable DALY rates decreased from 2209.11 (95% UI = 1678.63-2791.91) to 1489.05 (95% UI = 1237.65-1752.57) in females and increased from 5650.42 (95% UI = 5070.06-6264.39) to 6994.02 (95% UI = 6489.84-7558.41) in males. In 2017, the tobacco-attributable deaths in China were concentrated on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and stroke. The focus of tobacco control for females was SHS in 1990, whereas smoking and SHS were equally important for tobacco control in females in 2017. Increasing tobacco taxes and prices may be the most effective and feasible measure to reduce tobacco-attributable disease burdens., (Copyright © 2020 Wen, Xie, Wang, Wu and Yu.)

Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of historical earthquake disasters and resultant socioeconomic consequences is essential for designing effective disaster risk reduction measures. Based on historical earthquake disaster records, this study compiles a Chinese earthquake disaster catalog (CH-CAT) that includes records of 722 earthquake disasters that occurred during 1950⁻2017 in the mainland of China. This catalog includes more complete data records than other existing global earthquake databases for China as a whole. Statistical results demonstrate that the number of earthquake disasters and the resultant direct economic losses (DELs) exhibit significant increasing trends ( p < 0.01) over the studied 68-year period. Earthquake-induced deaths vary greatly between individual years and exhibit no significant trend. The Qinghai-Tibet seismic zone is the area with the highest frequency of earthquake disasters and the largest accumulated DELs, whereas the North China seismic zone is associated with the highest number of deaths. Among the 722 earthquake disasters, nearly 99.0% of deaths and 95.0% of DELs are attributable to 1.8% and 3.9% of the earthquake disasters, respectively. Approximately 54.2% of recorded earthquake disasters have earthquake magnitude ( Ms ) values between 5.0 and 5.9, while earthquake disasters with Ms greater than or equal to 7.0 account for 88.5% of DELs and 98.8% of deaths. On average, earthquake-induced DELs and deaths increase nonlinearly with increasing Ms per earthquake. DELs have a positive correlation with deaths and casualties on a logarithmic scale. This study further discusses that during different stages of socioeconomic development, changes in both exposure and vulnerability may be the major factors leading to change differences in earthquake-induced socioeconomic consequences. This study is a beneficial supplement to the global earthquake database and is useful for calibrating global or regional empirical loss models.