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In China, brucellosis has always been a significant public health issue, especially in the pastoral regions of northern provinces where animal husbandry is well-developed. However, the impact of control measures, breeding characteristics and temperature fluctuations on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis outbreaks remains unclear. We construct a periodic mechanism-driven dynamic model with latent delay coupled with the regional breeding and temperature characteristics of Xinjiang Region. Theoretically, the global dynamics of periodic solutions are demonstrated by the theory of monotone dynamical system. In the application, the monthly human brucellosis cases and average temperature data of Xinjiang from 2015 to 2020 are fitted, and the basic reproduction number of brucellosis transmission is evaluated as 0.6691. Nonetheless, it is yet unable to attain the national control standards in the short term. The findings suggest that: 1. Interactions of periodic fluctuations in Brucella survival time and sheep shearing are key factors leading to the periodic outbreaks of brucellosis. 2. Improving the frequency of environmental disinfection could quickly eliminate the brucellosis epidemic. Specifically, when the disinfection frequency was once a month, the national control standard could be reached 5 years ahead of schedule. 3. In extreme cases, when the immunization rate κ = 0 or the detection rate γ = 0 , the basic reproduction number might still be less than 1. From an epidemiological perspective, non-immunization control measures may be implemented with the reduction of brucellosis cases. The aforementioned statement may also bear resemblance to the preventive and control measures implemented in our country. • Thoroughly analyzing the global dynamics of periodic brucellosis model. • Fitting the newly infected cases of human brucellosis in Xinjiang from 2015-2020. • Investigating the impact of different control measures on brucellosis transmission. • Temperature fluctuation and sheep shearing are key factors leading to the periodic outbreaks of brucellosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Composite post insulators are crucial facilities in substations and are prone to significant damage during seismic disasters. However, existing research lacks seismic motion models suitable for power facilities and rarely involves stochastic models. Furthermore, considering the non-stationary characteristics of seismic motion, predicting the response of nonlinear systems under non-stationary excitation becomes exceedingly challenging. In view of this, the stochastic response of composite post insulators under the non-stationary stochastic seismic excitation appropriate for power facilities has been studied. First, a stochastic ground motion model, conforming to the Code for Seismic Design of Electrical Insulators in China, is established, incorporating amplitude and frequency non-stationarity. Next, the nonlinear dynamic system, accounting for multi-section composite post insulators and the nonlinearity of flange connections, is established under stochastic ground motion conditions. Based on this stochastic nonlinear dynamic model, the dynamic behavior of the system was analyzed using the stochastic dynamics method (the wavelet-Galerkin method), and the influence of nonlinear stiffness on the system response was discussed. The stochastic seismic response analysis method proposed in this paper can serve as a valuable reference for the seismic design of pillar-type electrical equipment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the use of formulaic sequences (FS) in academic writings of Chinese learners of English as a foreign language across different levels of studies at a public university in China. Frequency-based formulas were retrieved from a corpus of student academic texts written at five time points between Year 1 and Year 3. The structure, semantic transparency (as measured by mutual information, abbreviated as MI), function of the formulas and first language – second language (L1–L2) congruency were explored to identify factors influencing FS development over time using generalized linear mixed-effects modeling (GLMM). Results indicate that MI, structure and assumed learners' proficiency (time points) and their interactions produced significant effects on the development of L2 FS, but function and congruency did not. The individual variation and nonlinearity of FS development were interpreted with Complex Dynamic Systems Theory (CDST). Based on the longitudinal study, we highlight the usefulness of GLMM in accounting for both systematicity and individual variation in L2 development from a CDST perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the understudied longitudinal developments of grit and grammar knowledge and their relationship within the framework of Complex, Dynamic Systems Theory. Using a time series analysis method, the research investigates the trajectories of grit, specifically perseverance of effort (PE) and consistency of interests (CI), alongside grammar knowledge assessed in terms of form, meaning, and use through SAT tests in an international high school context in China. Drawing on data collected over a period of 72 weeks, the findings reveal that PE and grammar knowledge exhibit similar developmental patterns, contrasting with the distinct patterns observed between CI and grammar knowledge. Furthermore, the study identifies lagged effects of PE on grammar knowledge, suggesting that higher levels of grit, specifically persistence of effort, positively influence subsequent grammar knowledge. Additionally, a reciprocal relationship is observed between PE and grammar knowledge over time. The study also presents future trend trajectories indicating that PE, CI, and grammar knowledge are projected to continue developing over the subsequent 36 weeks following the research period. The implications of these findings emphasize the need for timely interventions and actions to promote the development of grit and grammar knowledge, providing valuable insights for teachers and students. Finally, the contribution of the study is outlined, along with limitations that should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The security of natural gas supply and demand has always been an important topic, and as a result, analyzing and predicting the supply and demand of natural gas has received considerable attention from researchers. Numerous studies have extensively researched the supply and demand of natural gas. The main purpose of this study is to explore the supply‐demand balance mechanism for natural gas security. A system dynamics model is constructed to assess the supply and demand of natural gas in Sichuan Province, China. A new system dynamics model based on domestic gas, production gas, ecological environment and natural gas supply is proposed. The study considers four scenarios: natural development, economic priority development, environmental priority development and coordinated development. The results show that the rapid economic development has led to an excessive environmental carrying capacity, a larger gap between natural gas supply and demand, a decline in the quality of life of residents, and even affected the energy security of Sichuan Province and China. The findings also show that people's overprotection of the environment can lead to slow economic development, which prevents it from achieving its desired goals. The coordinated development scenario in this paper not only ensures the production of natural gas and the quality of life of residents, but also is an optimal scheme with low energy consumption and pollution. According to the research conclusions, considering the overall situation of China's energy security and the situation in Sichuan Province, the author proposes reforms from the supply and demand sides of natural gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technology has played an instrumental role as a catalyst for museum digitization. Museums are enhancing their methods of management, interpretation, and representation with digitalization, networking, and intelligentization, suggesting a move toward seamless integration, presentation, and delivery of cultural heritage resources. China's Smart Museum Project, launched in 2014, does not foster digital museums or virtual museums but a new kind of museum composed of dynamic perceptual systems for and between people (online and offline visitors, museum staff, and board) and objects (artifacts, storage areas, galleries, and facilities) through new technologies, including cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence. This article advocates the kind of museum digitization seen in the Smart Museum Project, which promotes a digital museum-based paradigm that integrates new technologies with comprehensive perception, ubiquitous interconnection, and syncretic applications. Here, we provide historical context for its development and its impact on museum activities, with further elaboration on the definition, connotation, framework, and outreach of the smart museum. We believe that museums should embrace digital opportunities to evolve from a computer-based technology lab to sustainable, synergistic, and smart knowledgescapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting electric vehicles is an important way to achieve a low-carbon transport sector for the carbon peak and neutrality target. A better understanding of future scenarios of EV ownership is fundamental for more policy-relevant results. This study develops a system dynamic model for simulating EV ownership in China by considering the interactions among factors influencing the application of electric vehicles and synthetic scenarios designed. The result shows that under the baseline scenario, China's EV ownership would increase by 36 times, from 4.3 to 157.2 million during 2020–2035, and the new EV sales will account for 60% of total car sales, meaning that it would reach the target of promoting electric vehicles set by the Chinese government. However, according to the scenario analysis, the efficient strategies to accelerate the promotion of EVs in China are speeding up the construction of charging facilities, improving battery lifespan, and reducing daily usage fees, which are estimated to increase the EV ownership in 2035 by 59.6%, 27.3%, and 26.8%, respectively. In comparison, the effect is not so obvious for measures like duty-free and subsidy policy. The developed model can offer policymakers a reliable tool and reference to assess the outcomes of policies to promote EV application ahead of their implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the impact of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the comparative advantage (CA) of the Belt and Road countries (BRCs). This study uses the national-level panel data of Chinese OFDI flowing into 62 BRCs and disaggregated sectoral data from BRCs categorised by factor intensity from 2003 to 2017 and applies dynamic system generalised method-of-moments (GMM) estimators with instrument variables. The findings suggest that Chinese OFDI has a strong positive effect on the CA of BRCs in natural resource-intensive industries, a relatively weak positive effect on the CA of BRCs in labour-intensive textile, garment and footwear sectors, and a negative effect on the CA of BRCs in other labour-intensive sectors. Additionally, Chinese OFDI has a negative effect on the CA of BRCs in capital- and technology-intensive sectors, but the impact is positive in high-income BRCs. In contrast, non-Chinese OFDI shows a negative effect on the CA of BRCs in the natural resource industry, while non-Chinese OFDI significantly promotes labour-intensive industry and capital technology-intensive industry. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, BRCs are required to facilitate or prioritize Chinese investment in sectors complying with their own development strategies and resource endowments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to control industrial air pollution is an urgent policy problem to be solved. Through efficiency evaluation, we can test the implementation effect of the policy, to provide decision support for industrial development. China's provincial industrial system consists of production stage and emission reduction stage. Taking the number of industrial waste gas treatment facilities as a carry-over variable (i.e., connecting multiple periods), this study establishes a dynamic two-stage, slacks-based measure data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) model considering shared inputs to evaluate the operating efficiency of China's provincial industrial systems from 2011 to 2019. The results show that (1) The industrial waste gas treatment facilities (carry-over variables) have a significant impact on the overall efficiency and stage efficiency of the industrial system; (2) The average overall efficiency and average stage efficiency of the provincial industrial system have improved during 2011-2019, but they are still inefficient, and the inefficiency has certain geographical characteristics; (3) During the 12th Five Year Plan period (2011-2015), the average efficiency of the emission reduction stage was higher than that of the production stage, but the situation reversed during the 13th Five Year Plan period (2016-2019). This study is of great significance to policy makers of industrial air pollution control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land ecosystem services are the link between human well-being and the natural environment. Using a systematic review through CiteSpace software, this paper analyses the research trend and hot issues in existing international studies of land use and ecosystem services, whose implications for China are also discussed subsequently. The whole research process can be divided into three stages consisting of germination (1997-2005), growth (2006-2014) and explosion (2015-2021). There are mainly four topics in previous researches, including valuation, synergy and tradeoff, spatial flow, and integration and optimization of land ecosystem services. At present, there is an urgent need for domestic research to establish a framework between land use, ecosystem services and management decision system, build a dynamic evaluation system and model, strengthen the coupling research between human and nature based on land ecosystem services, and strengthen multi-scale research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The utilization rate of water resources of mines in China is still relatively low. The evaluation of mine water recycling has practical guiding significance for the planning, positioning, development, and construction of groundwater in today's society. This article constructs an evaluation system for mine water recycling based on the key performance index (KPI) via the Internet of Things and big data platforms. This system evaluates the recycling status of mine water. First, the micro-seismic monitoring system and the hydrological dynamic detection system are deployed in work. The installation and debugging methods are compared to meet the monitoring requirements. Second, the filtered clear water is used for equipment cooling and firefighting dust removal at the mining face through the constant pressure supply pump. The excess clear water is discharged to the surface. Finally, 16 indicators are screened from four dimensions to construct a key KPI mine water evaluation system for evaluation and optimization. The results demonstrate that the first mine water monitoring system runs well and is fully functional, achieving the expected goal. The utilization rate evaluation score has increased yearly, from 3.05 points in 2016 to 3.39 points in 2020. However, the per capita utilization rate score still needs improvement. It is essential to improve the rationality of development and utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On account of the influence of the discontinuity of CRTS II ballastless track slabs and the discrete support of track pads on the high-speed rail vehicle-ballastless track system, a vibration analysis calculation model of the ballastless track-vehicle coupling system was established on the basis of the moving unit method. The dynamic response of the system at different travel speeds and with and without consideration of the track plate discontinuities was investigated. The effect of the random process discontinuity on the dynamic response of the steel rails was analyzed by Fourier inverse transform on the high and low discontinuity spectra of ballastless rails on China's high-speed rail. We also generated time domain samples of the track discontinuity corresponding to the three percentile spectra. The results show that the dynamic response of the track structure increases with the speed of the train under the condition of track unevenness, with the dynamic response of the steel rail being the most significant, while the dynamic response of the track slab and concrete foundation decreases step by step compared with that of the steel rail; the discontinuity of the track slab has a low impact on the vertical acceleration of the vehicle and does not affect the smoothness of the train; the magnitude of the dynamic response of the rail increases as the amplitude of the irregularities increases or the wavelength decreases. In the wavelength of 2~30 m, the maximum and as the wavelength of the discontinuity sample increases, the oscillation of the power response time curve decreases significantly and tends to be smooth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the panel data of 123 city commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2017, we use the dynamic panel system GMM estimation method to empirically test the impact of private capital holdings on the stability of city commercial banks. The results show that private capital holding improves the operating performance of city commercial banks, reduces the volatility of return on total assets, and is conducive to the stability of city commercial banks. Furthermore, the lack of financial awareness of local governments has led to the negative impact of private capital, that is, the stability of the banks has declined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: This article investigates the interaction effects among government subsidies, research and development (R&D) input and innovation performance of the Chinese energy industry. This article establishes a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model and uses the impulse response function (IRF) tool and variance decomposition of all variables to reveal the evolution process of variables' relationship in different time periods based on the data of 95 listed energy companies in China from 2010 to 2018. : The results show that R&D input and innovation performance promote government subsidies; government subsidies and innovation performance promote R&D input; R&D input substantially promote innovation performance; and the dynamic interaction of the three variables differs for state-owned and non-state-owned companies. : This article focuses on the Chinese energy industry and considers the ownership of companies. The PVAR model is used to establish a dynamic interactive system of variables, which considers the dynamic interaction relationship among government subsidies, R&D input and innovation performance in this specific industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a bottleneck system in a state of disequilibrium, in which commuters are heterogeneous in the values of travel time and schedule delays. Three representative dynamical systems are used to formulate the day-to-day departure time choice of commuters, and a Walrasian toll charge scheme is utilized to control the evolutionary process of traffic flows. The toll charge scheme is anonymous; that is, toll charges are identical for all user classes, and the scheme's implementation does not need to resort to information on the values of travel time and schedule delays. We find that the system optimum (SO) flow pattern can be achieved at the stationary state under the implementation of the toll charge scheme. The equivalence between the stationary state and the SO, the existence of the toll charge for achieving the SO, and the convergence of day-to-day traffic flows to the SO under the implementation of the toll charge scheme are theoretically proved. The distributions of traffic flows and toll charges at the SO state during morning rush hour are analytically shown. The application of the toll charge scheme to a network with multiple trip origins is presented. The effectiveness of the toll charge scheme for achieving the SO is also examined by numerical analyses. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72171007, 71890972/71890970, and 72021001]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2022.1191. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Building information modeling (BIM) is recognized as one of the technologies to upgrade the informatization level of the architecture engineering and construction (AEC) industry. However, the level of BIM implementation in the construction phase lags behind other phases of the project. Assessing the level of BIM implementation in the construction phase from a system dynamics (SD) perspective can comprehensively understand the interrelationship of factors in the BIM implementation system, thereby developing effective strategies to enhance BIM implementation during the construction phase. This study aims to develop a model to investigate the level of BIM implementation in the construction phase. Design/methodology/approach: An SD model which covered technical subsystem, organizational subsystem, economic subsystem and environmental subsystem was developed based on questionnaire survey data and literature review. Data from China were used for model validation and simulation. Findings: The simulation results highlight that, in China, from 2021 to 2035, the ratio of BIM implementation in the construction phase will rise from 48.8% to 83.8%, BIM model quality will be improved from 27.6% to 77.2%. The values for variables "BIM platform", "organizational structure of BIM" and "workflow of BIM" at 2035 will reach 65.6%, 72.9% and 72.8%, respectively. And the total benefits will reach 336.5 billion yuan in 2035. Furthermore, the findings reveal five factors to effectively promote the level of BIM implementation in the construction phase, including: policy support, number of BIM standards, owners demand for BIM, investment in BIM and strategic support for BIM. Originality/value: This study provides beneficial insights to effectively enhance the implementation level of BIM in the construction phase. Meanwhile, the model developed in this study can be used to dynamically and quantitatively assess the changes in the level of BIM implementation caused by a measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the effect of carbon trading on low-carbon transformation of high energy consumption enterprises in China. Based on the mechanism of interaction and restriction among high energy consumption enterprises, carbon verification agencies and the government, a tripartite evolutionary game model is constructed. The three-dimensional dynamic system is built to analyze the behavior patterns of the three parties. The evolution path of the tripartite game is visualized, and the low-carbon transformation states of high energy consumption enterprises in different situations are described. The results show that the high energy consumption enterprises, verification organization and the government cannot reach the optimal game equilibrium (low-carbon transformation, verification and supervision) temporarily when seeking their own interests. The corresponding measures should be taken with different situations of the tripartite game. No matter what strategy the government chooses, the low-carbon transformation could be promoted by carbon trading through carbon verification mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in braking energy regeneration for hybrid electric vehicles. To improve performance and reduce fuel consumption, a better control strategy composed of braking regeneration and gear shifting is needed. This work presents a braking energy regeneration control strategy for a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). The mathematical model for the vehicle dynamic system is established, and the objective function of braking energy regeneration is presented based on system analysis. Taking the increased electric energy of a battery as the objective function of the economic downshift law, the multi-island genetic algorithm (MIGA) is used to solve the shifting condition factors corresponding to different deceleration speeds and motor torques and the optimal downshifting speed. The presented control strategy of braking energy regeneration is validated in a typical city cycle form in China, and the results show better energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The revenue of a public-private partnership (PPP) project is influenced by macroeconomic scenarios such as economic recession and policy adjustments. But these macrofactors and their dynamic relations with microfactors in PPP projects have not been thoroughly understood. In this article, system dynamics (SD) and real option (RO) are integrated to develop a novel model to investigate the impacts of the macro-risk factors on the revenue of PPP projects. Five scenarios were studied through simulation. The results indicate that the loan interest rate and tax rate are negatively correlated to the revenue, while the GDP growth rate and self-owned capital rate are positively correlated. This indicates that the government can stimulate the private sector to invest in PPP projects by providing lower loan interest and increasing the self-owned capital rate. This integrated approach has been proposed for use by decision-makers to evaluate the impact of economics and policies in the future. This study provides a comprehensive review and reliable theoretical analysis regarding the adoption of PPP by China's local governments, yielding to main policy implications for further promoting the efficiency of PPP development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In China, external supervision on construction safety mainly comes from the government and supervision engineers (SEs). However, the construction safety supervisory mechanism (CSSM) contains some dilemmas affecting the improvement of safety performance, such as the declining impact of SEs, the increasing rent-seeking behaviors of contractor and excessive government interference. This study aims to depict and analyze the CSSM in China from an evolutionary game view. The objectives are to understand the supervision strategy and evolutionary behaviors of different stakeholders, propose suggestions for improving safety performance and help the key safety supervision stakeholders, especially the government, formulate a suitable safety supervision strategy. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses tripartite dynamic evolutionary game theory to study the CSSM in China and solve the stable equilibrium solution using system dynamics. Findings: This study has revealed the game relationship of construction safety supervision mechanisms in China and solved the stable equilibrium solution. The results prove that a supervision engineer (SE) plays a crucial role in the CSSM, and "supervision engineer useless" is an unreasonable assertion. For government supervision agency (GSA), excessive inspection and free-market regulation are neither wise strategies. GSA can reduce the inspection frequency when general contractors (GCs) input high safety investments and SEs implement responsible supervision. But keeping proper government supervision to avoid GC's unlawful behaviors and SE's rent-seeking is indispensable. In addition, excessive governmental supervision will weaken SE's role, so the government should transfer some supervision powers to SE. Originality/value: This study focuses on the dynamic evolution process between GSA, GC and SE. This method is different from most research that neglected the dynamic characteristic of system and game solution stability. The research methods not only contribute to construction safety supervision policy-making in China but also help to improve supervision efficiency in other countries and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

County is the center of China's socio-economic development and the key node for urban–rural integration. Also, the county is an important carrier for promoting urban and rural green development. Improving green and low-carbon development capabilities and formulating county-level low-carbon standards will play a significant role in promoting China's new people-oriented urbanization and rural revitalization. Although there have been extensive studies on low-carbon benchmarks, over half of the benchmarks tend to ignore the development stage of the evaluated region and its needs. When the region's economy reaches a certain level, constraints from low-carbon targets may limit the local development process. This study firstly allocated county carbon intensity reduction targets (CIRT) by considering the differences in county carbon reduction capacity and responsibility. Secondly, a dynamic benchmark system of per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) in counties in China is constructed. Finally, we took Changxing County in Zhejiang Province as a research case to verify the dynamic benchmark of PCCE. According to the carbon intensity target reduction rate (CITRR), China's counties can be divided into three categories: low carbon emissions reduction capability-responsible counties (L-CERCRC), medium carbon emissions reduction capability-responsible counties (M-CERCRC), and high carbon emissions reduction capability-responsible counties (H-CERCRC). The results show that (1) due to the national CO2 emission reduction target in 2030, the carbon intensity will be 60% lower than in 2005, the CITRR for China's 1510 counties range from 8.36 to 137.83%; the average CITRR is 48.40%. (2) Changxing County's CITRR is 57.71%, which belongs to the H-CERCRC. The PCCE of Changxing County will be much higher than the benchmark when the carbon peak is reached in the future. (3) For reaching the aiming benchmark, Changxing County is suggested to adjust its relevant influencing factors of PCCE for converting local's PCCE reaching to the benchmark within a certain time period. The dynamic benchmark system for PCCE in China's counties established in this study is economically sensitive, which not only takes the differences of counties into account, but also meets the needs of counties' diverse development form stages. This system provides counties a few coordinated directions which can improve the local's economic development and reduce greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions through the development progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emergency materials transportation, both economic and societal, is one of the most important parts of unconventional emergency management. In the present study, we built a quantitative simulation model underlying the mechanism of emergency materials transportation specifically regarding typhoon disasters. We then explored the internal influence factors and association mechanisms of the dynamic model as they relate to the effective control and guidance of emergency materials transportation. Using system dynamic model, this paper conducts the simulation study to identify the key influencing factors for the speed of emergency materials transportation. The relationships between influencing factors and the emergency capability were analyzed qualitatively. On this basis, SD flow chart was built. A typhoon disaster event in Leizhou Peninsula, China, is used as an example to validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model, as well as to simulate different emergency management strategies. Results of governmental emergency materials transportation are key factors in process of emergency formulating the policy to improve the speed and efficiency for emergency materials transportation during the emergency management process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanism of how environmental regulations (ERs) affect export sophistication (ES) is complex, and for many years, it has been a hot topic for researchers. However, few previous studies have focused on whether ERs can promote the upgrading of China's ES through foreign direct investment (FDI). To address this research gap, in this study, ERs, FDI, and ES were incorporated into one novel research framework. Based on the provincial panel data of China for the period ranging from 2004 to 2016, the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) was utilized to analyze the mutual relationship between FDI, ERs, and ES. Then, the panel threshold model was employed to empirically investigate the upgrading of the ES that is determined by FDI under different-intensity ERs. The results were as follows: First, ERs lead the influx of foreign capital to China, as a "pollution shelter" of developed countries, but excessive ERs have negative effects on FDI, resulting in an inverted U-shaped relationship between ERs and FDI. Second, the upgrading of the ES was affected by FDI, with the trend following a U-shaped curve. Third, the ERs have significant direct effects on the upgrading of the ES in the form of a U-shaped relationship, which was determined by the combined "innovation compensation" and "cost offset" effects. Finally, the environmental regulations had indirect influences on the upgrading of the export sophistication through the linkage effect of FDI in the form of an N-shaped relationship. Based on the aforementioned achievements, some policy recommendations were proposed to promote the upgrading of the ES in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the basic principles of system dynamics, the mathematic description for the stock market evolution which is a typical complicated dynamic system is provided. And according to this mathematic description, a new hybrid intelligent method based on multi-layer feed-forward neural network (MFNN) which is the most widely used neural network and new improved black hole algorithm (IBHA) which is a new nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithm is proposed to model the stock market. In this new hybrid intelligent method, the new IBHA whose structure is simple and which can be implemented easily, and the modified back propagation algorithm have been used to optimize the architectural and algorithmic parameters of MFNN simultaneously. This new method is applied to model two data groups of Shanghai stock market in 2015.9–2018.8 of China to show that the computing results of the new method coincide well with the real data and that the forecasting precision is highly accurate in these cases. At last, the new method has been applied to model seven other stock market data sets and compared with five state-of-the-art hybrid algorithms proposed in previous studies. The results show that the performance of the new method (including modeling effect and efficiency) has been demonstrated to be satisfactory by using for different problem settings and market situations and it is also easy to be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article made a system dynamics flow diagram (SD flow diagram) to describe the green railway engineering (GRE) system, which provides a theoretical basis for discussing the source and change process of the green degree of railway engineering(GDR) and also provides a practical basis for accurate policy implementation and evaluation promotion of GRE management. Based on the definition of GDR and using "input-output" relationship to analyze system structure of GRE, set two green goals of environmental and resource cost decreases as the clue, deconstructed practice process based on the principle of construction to form GRE system dynamic flow diagram, which aims to reveal the key influencing factors and promotion path of GDR. The results of the research show that (1) the green schemes set the foundation of GDR, including 3 schemes of green planning, green design, green construction, and determine the expected control values (VE ) of 4 status, namely ecological damage degree, environmental pollution degree, land occupation degree, and resources consume degree. (2) The deviation of expected control values (VE ) and actual control values (VA ) from 4 status is the premise of whether the GDR needs to be optimized or improved, and 2 practice achievements of green knowledge innovation and green culture creation provided different promotion paths for GDR. (3) According to the SD flow diagram constructed by research, the 3 schemes are influenced by regional ecological carrying capacity, social material resource reserve, green knowledge reserve, green talent reserve , reasonable goals setting, strengthening preliminary research, making full use of resources, deepening the connection of procedures, and so on are conducive to build a foundation for GDR. (4) The 4 status are directly controlled by seven rate variables, which promote the dynamic optimization of GDR by technology, equipment, institution management, and behavior management. The SD flow diagram of GRE provides 2 contributions. The first provides an analytical basis for the study of the promotion strategy of GDR, and the second provides a model basis for further quantitative study of GDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First of all, this paper which is based on the panel data of 30 provinces, 27 manufacturing industries, and 1164 listed manufacturing companies in China measures the technological innovation efficiency of the manufacturing industry and then establishes the dynamic system generalized method of moments model and panel threshold model from the regional, industrial and enterprise levels to analyze the impact of environmental regulations on the technological innovation efficiency of China's manufacturing industry empirically. The results indicate: three kinds of environmental regulation tools have different influences on the technological innovation efficiency of the manufacturing industry and have a certain time lag effect. Overall, environmental regulation has an inhibitory effect on the technological innovation efficiency of the China's manufacturing industry in the same period. Still, it has a promoting effect on the lag stage. Threshold regression results show that the market incentive environmental regulation tools have a threshold effect on technological innovation efficiency, and there is an inverted "U" type relationship between them. Therefore, China should propose regulation methods according to the environmental pollution situation in different regions, promote enterprises to carry out technological reform, and improve the efficiency of technological innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, low and medium speed maglev (LMSM) transportation system has been greatly promoted in China to meet different social demands. Accordingly, a LMSM train using levitation frames with mid-set air springs has been developed, and it is necessary to investigate the dynamic characteristics of its train-track-bridge coupled system. First, environmental vibration tests were conducted on the bridge to study its self-vibration characteristics. Then, field tests were carried out on this coupled system within the 60 km/h speed range. Subsequently, a three-dimensional rigid-flexible coupled dynamics model of the system was developed to evaluate its dynamic behavior at higher speeds. Results show that the first-order vertical and lateral bending frequencies of the bridge are 7.32 Hz and 6.00 Hz, respectively; train speed has little effect on the vertical dynamic displacement of the track-bridge system, yet has a significant impact on the acceleration responses of the coupled system; key dynamic indicators of the bridge meet the relevant requirements; the vertical ride quality of car body is not so good as that in the lateral direction, but on the whole the train has "Good" ride quality. These results can provide a useful reference for the optimal design of LMSM transportation systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Field-scale combined ecological treatment systems (FCETS) are designed to remove nutrients from aquaculture wastewater in ponds according to the characteristics of the nutrients present. We designed and established a numerical model based on the system dynamic (SD) method, to optimize the parameters of FCETS. Results showed that the mean removal rates of TSS, TN, NO3−-N, NH4+-N, TP, DP, and CODMn ranged from 83.3 to 125.8%, 41.1 to 49.1%, 44.8 to 56.2%, 49.3 to 55.6%, 80.0 to 88.2%, 52.6 to 65.0%, and 52.0 to 61.5%, respectively. The SD model provided satisfactory estimates of water quality at the outlet throughout both the validation and calibration periods. In addition, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the key parameters of the SD model. This also involved optimization of the N and P removal capacity of FCETS, and their corresponding discharge (Q), and concentration (C) at the inlet. This made it possible to use R and MATLAB to simulate seasonal differences in the removal of N and P. Our results indicate that a FCETS can be used to efficiently remove nutrients from rural wastewater in ponds. In addition, we demonstrated that the SD-based numerical model is a useful management support tool to ensure that decisions are made which result in the stable operation of a FCETS. This illustrates that contamination-free aquaculture from rural inland ponds is a feasible goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the behavior of the train-bridge system under strong waves is crucial in designing the cross-sea bridge. However, the influence of earthquake-induced hydrodynamic pressure on the dynamic system may be significant and need to be adequately understood. This study investigates the influence of earthquake-induced hydrodynamic force on the stochastic responses of the train-bridge interaction using the Newmark-β method. A surrogate model named back-propagation neural network is implemented by correlating wave samples with the stochastic responses of the train-bridge system. Such a model improves computation efficiency and avoids further time-step integration. The Pintan's bridge, located in China's Eastern Region, is selected as a case study. The results show that the earthquake-induced hydrodynamic force involves significant responses of the train-bridge system. Moreover, the maximum dynamic amplification factor of the deck and the pier are 6% and 12.5%, respectively. Finally, a significant value of the peak period minimizes the effect of the earthquake-induced hydrodynamic responses on the train-bridge system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For researching the internal structure characteristics and its three subsystems' evolution of the wetland ecological-economic-social composite system and getting the point that makes wetland ecology, production, and living synergistically develop, in this paper, the coevolution model of wetland complex system based on fractional order dynamic system was established, the genetic algorithm was used to solve the model parameters, and the equilibrium stability of the model was tested by using asymmetric fractional order equilibrium condition. The data of 29 provinces, cities, and districts in China were selected for empirical research, and suggestions for improvement were put forward. The results show that there is a significant nonlinear relationship among the three subsystems, and the stability points exist and change dynamically. This shows that, in practice, only when the local government issues relevant policies, can we achieve the benign coupling and coordinated development of the wetland ecological-economic-social system and achieve the harmonious development of human and nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Error correction is an important postprocess technique in hydrological modeling. The paper aims to investigate the effectiveness and suitability of a recently proposed error correction method, the regularized dynamic system response curve (RDSRC) method in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. In the HBV model, the effective precipitation can reflect the error of model inputs so it is used for runoff error correction. Three commonly used statistics [Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient, root-mean-squared error (RMSE), and percent bias (PBIAS)] were used to evaluate the model performance. In this study, the RDSRC method was tested by a synthetic case and a real case. Results of the synthetic case showed that the NSE, RMSE, and PBIAS of runoff simulation before correction were 0.943, 182.73 m3/s , and −0.626% , respectively, while those statistics after correction by the RDSRC method were 1,0.61 m3/s , and 0.002%, respectively. In the real case, the HBV model was used for daily runoff modeling in the Shiquan catchment in China; meanwhile, the RDSRC method and the AR(2) model were compared for runoff error correction. The corrected daily runoff by the RDSRC method had much better accuracy than the second-order autoregressive [AR(2)] model and the HBV model. After correction of the RDSRC method, the NSE of the HBV model increased from 0.83 to 0.946, whereas the RMSE of the HBV model decreased by 43.6%, from 246.37 to 138.96 m3/s. This case study provides two main conclusions: (1) the RDSRC method had better performance in runoff error correction than the AR(2) model, and (2) the RDSRC method is an effective alternative for daily runoff error correction when used for the HBV model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Establishing HWPS investment limitation and suitability assessment indicator systems. • Determination of expert weights using dynamic social networks. • TIFN was used to quantify the qualitative indicators. • Combining BWM and CRITIC combination weighting and TODIM to rank the alternatives. • Investment suitability assessment of 62 completed hydropower plants in China. The hydropower-wind-photovoltaic-storage (HWPS) complementary system is one of the essential ways for China to build a new type of power system and to realize the dual-carbon goal. However, China's HWPS complementary system is still in the exploratory stage, and it is important to propose a rational multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) framework for investment suitability assessment based on completed hydropower plants. Therefore, this study first established a limitation indicator system for preliminary screening hydropower plants and an HWPS investment suitability assessment indicator system containing six dimensions: nature, market, infrastructure, land, society, and environment. Second, the weights among experts were determined based on the dynamic social network, and a mechanism for updating expert weights was proposed. Again, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number (TIFN) was used to quantify the qualitative indicators and combined the weights according to the best-worst method (BWM) and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. Finally, the TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and MADM) method was used for scheme suitability assessment with sensitivity analysis and method comparison. The results show that 62 eligible hydropower plants were preliminarily screened out of 647 completed medium- and large-scale hydropower plants in China by combining GIS technology. Natural factors are the most important of the six dimensions, followed by social factors. According to the suitability assessment results of TODIM, #23 hydropower station has the highest suitability for HWPSCS investment, which provides a reference for the layout of China's HWPS complementary system. With different decision makers' risk preferences and different MADM methods, #23 hydropower plant is still the best investment option, which proves the effectiveness of the MADM framework proposed in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to model the 2019 CoronaVirus (2019-nCov) spread in China is one of the most urgent and interesting problems in applied mathematics. In this paper, we propose a novel time delay dynamic system with external source to describe the trend of local outbreak for the 2019-nCoV. The external source is introduced in the newly proposed dynamic system, which can be considered as the suspected people travel to different areas. The numerical simulations exhibit the dynamic system with the external source is more reliable than the one without it, and the rate of isolation is extremely important for controlling the increase of cumulative confirmed people of 2019-nCoV. Based on our numerical simulation results with the public data, we suggest that the local government should have some more strict measures to maintain the rate of isolation. Otherwise the local cumulative confirmed people of 2019-nCoV might be out of control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical literacy has gained much popularity in educational circles who are working on the improvement of curriculum and overall standard of education. It involves a holistic lifelong comprehensive learning approach that includes movements and physical activities. Overall, it has positive effects on physical, psychological, social, and cognitive health of individuals, so physical literacy exemplifies the dedication to raise a healthier, more active generation. Numerous factors interacting between humanities and social sciences affect the promotion of physical literacy, so such a study will be interdisciplinary which will consider across all social and individual factors. The current research proposes a system dynamic "SD" model to promote students' physical literacy by building a complete causal loop diagram of the model to illustrate the general system. Based on the casual loop diagram, the system is then presented as four subsystems. The model is simulated by allocating 14 different changes of indexes in the physical literacy promotion system to find better allocations for optimal effectiveness in promoting physical literacy. Simulations are carried out by using the Apache Spark architecture utilizing "Big Data" tools for effective, speedy, and reliable analysis and results. The study proposes that different physical literacy indexes in different grades require attention; the optimal promotion of physical literacy can be achieved by increasing the physical knowledge of lower-grade students and increasing the physical attitude of higher-grade students. The model can be used to make decisions about efficient physical literacy management and physical literacy promotion planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-lived (≥6 days) heatwaves (HWs) have strong social impacts with serious health implications. Using homogenized historical daily temperatures from China and ECMWF reanalysis data, this study investigates its frequency between 1979 and 2018 and driving mechanisms. It is found that the occurrence of HWs is strongly associated with the joint actions of the South Asian high and the western North Pacific subtropical high, which can be described by a synergy index measured by the boundary distance between the two subtropical high pressure systems. When the synergy index is positive, there are more long-lived HWs in the east of the Tibetan Plateau, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the southern region in China, and vice versa. A Mann–Kendall test shows a significant interdecadal shift around 2004/05 toward increased occurrence that is consistent with enhanced subtropical high systems. This study shows the important roles of large-scale dynamic systems in regional climate extremes and their future changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines a risk-based two-stage stochastic robust programming (RTSRP) model into an agricultural-ecological system dynamics (AESD) to conduct agricultural-ecological water resources management. It integrates the chance- constrained programming, conditional risk-at-value, two-stage stochastic robust programming with the AESD model. The RTSRP model improves upon the TSRP model by introducing the risk control measurements. The agricultural-ecological dynamic system (AEDS) model can build water connections amid wheat, field corn, seed corn, economic crops, woodland, meadow, and city greening and farmland shelterbelts. Besides, the ecological service value is transformed into the irrigation benefit of ecological sector to guide water allocation amid sub-ecological sectors at a more applicable detailed scale. It can tradeoff relationships between economic benefit and ecological recovery by formulating two enlarging ecological areas scenarios. The combinations of the RTSRP model and the AEDS model can get optimal water allocation schemes, and simulate future sustainable degree (SD) of optimal water allocation schemes and explore relationships amid water allocation, economic benefit, and SD and risk and robustness of model. It is used to the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in China to verify its application. The results show that water allocation schemes have different responses on various risk scenarios. Higher water allocation corresponds to bigger water shortage risk and higher robustness of the model. The economic benefit positive with water allocation is contradictory with SD. Enlarging ecological areas contributes to improvements of economic benefit and ecological recovery, but not the SD under the condition of enough water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the China's five element philosophy (CFEP), we construct a permuted Volterra quadratic stochastic operator acting on the four-dimensional simplex. This operator (depending on 10 parameters) is considered as an evolution operator for CFEP. We study the discrete-time dynamical system generated by this operator. Mainly our results related to a symmetric operator (depending on one parameter). We show that this operator has a unique fixed point, which is repeller. Moreover, in the case of non-zero parameter, it has two 5-periodic orbits. We divide the simplex to four subsets: the first set consists a single point (the fixed point); the second (resp. third) set is the set of initial point trajectories of which converge to the first (resp. second) 5-periodic orbit; the fourth subset is the set of initial point trajectories of which do not converge and their sets of limit points are infinite and lie on the boundary of the simplex. We give interpretations of our results to CFEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific and effective heritage monitoring can not only realize the conservation of the heritage itself and the maintenance of its values, but it can also realize the sustainable development of the heritage site. In order to promote the conservation and management of Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS), this study proposed a design for the annual report of GIAHS monitoring under the overall framework of the GIAHS monitoring system, and explored the application of the annual report in the first GIAHS site in China: the Qingtian Rice-Fish Culture System. In the design scheme of this study, the GIAHS annual monitoring report is composed of 24 monitoring items, with each of them logically related. It is to be filled in by the bureaus of the heritage site and reported through the GIAHS dynamic monitoring system. The results of an analysis of the annual reports of Qingtian Rice-Fish Culture System for four years showed that Qingtian County has taken a series of conservation and development measures which have reduced the area of abandoned paddy, enhanced the unit benefit of agri-products, and increased the farmers' income. At the same time, the heritage site is faced with various challenges and threats, such as the weakening of the tourism attraction, the aging of the heritage practitioners, and the limitation of the heritage-themed agri-products and tourism income, which need to be addressed with proper measures. The results can also provide guidance for other GIAHS based on indications that heritage sites should improve the development of cultural products, the construction of social organization and the cultivation of spontaneous publicity, and an exchange and learning mechanism should be established among them in the future. The design and application of the GIAHS annual monitoring reports can not only provide specific guidance for conducting the GIAHS monitoring, but also lay the foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of GIAHS conservation and management. This study is expected to help enrich the theory of GIAHS monitoring, further promote China's GIAHS monitoring work, and also provide China's experience for the benefit of international GIAHS monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimism about China's rise has in recent years given way to deep concern in the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom. Drawing on an original set of interviews with China experts from each country, and an array of primary and secondary sources, I show that shifting framings of China's rise reflect the dynamics of the US, Australian and UK national security fields. The article highlights three features specifically: first, the US field features a belief that China's rise can be arrested or prevented, absent in Australia and the UK. I root this dynamic in the system of professional appointments and the intense US 'marketplace of ideas', which gives rise to intense framing contestation and occasional sharp frame change. I then identify the key positions produced by each field, from which key actors have shaped the differing interpretations of China and its meaning. The election of Donald Trump, a strong China-critic, to the US presidency empowered key individuals across government who shifted the predominant framing of China from potential challenger to current threat. The smaller and more centralized fields in Australia and Britain feature fewer and less intense China-sceptical voices; responses have thereby remained largely pragmatic, despite worsening diplomatic relations in each case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water pollution caused by heavy metal leaves human beings exposed to various health risks. Although many studies have focused on the efficiency of industrial water use (IWU) systems, few studies further address analysis for the harmful effect of heavy metal polluted water on human health. This paper first considers both IWU and healthcare (HC) systems as an integrated two-stage IWUHC system. Detailed efficiencies and its dynamic evolution are further revealed by integrating a dynamic two-stage DEA model within a slacks-based measure and Kernel density estimation. Results are as follows: (1) During 2011–2017, the IWUHC systems for 30 provinces in China have low efficiencies, which may have been caused by the bad performance of HC sub-system. The rankings of the average IWU efficiencies in four regions are in agreement with that of HC sub-system: northeastern, eastern, western, and central regions. (2) Provincial differences of IWU efficiencies are more significant than that of HC sub-system. The two-level distribution of IWUHC efficiencies is not helpful for improving IWUHC efficiencies in the eastern and western regions. (3) Understanding the dynamic evolution of the detailed efficiencies and the key indicator efficiencies provide governments with differentiated and forward-looking suggestions toward promoting IWUHC efficiencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government resource allocation practices for achieving carbon neutrality need to be guided by dynamic system theory to identify potential dynamics in China. In particular, dynamic system theory addresses the complex interrelationships and identifies the changes in dynamics to support the decision-making process in pursuing carbon neutrality among international trade, transportation, industrial demand and dynamic control. However, carbon neutrality involves various activities to better understand the complex activity interrelationships. The data are collected from four major databases including 30 Chinese provinces/cities covering a six-year period with the accumulated frequency in the Baidu Index. This study proposes a hybrid system approach to dynamic resource analysis. The results showed that carbon intensity control dynamics impose a greater influence on the other dynamics toward carbon neutrality. Many provinces can achieve carbon neutrality by regulating the electronics and telecommunications equipment industry. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy structure in global terminal consumption is moving towards a direction of low carbon. This study analyzes the evolution of the share of coal in energy consumption structure by continuous dynamical systems. Based on the complex and dynamic interactions among energy sources, an n-dimensional dynamical system model is constructed where the alternative of other energy sources for coal are modeled by the linear parameters. A case study of China is performed on its terminal energy consumption structure. Three scenarios are set to analyze and compare the particular evolution paths of coal share: the substitution rate changes, the self-growth rate changes, and both the substitution rate and self-growth rate change. Results show that the improvement of renewable power in either the substitution rate or self-growth rate is the most effective to reduce the proportion of coal. As to other energy sources, raising the coal substitution rate is better than increasing their self-growth rate. It concludes that proper control of coal power, moderate development of hydropower, and active and safe development of nuclear power are likely increase the proportion of electric in terminal energy consumption. This study provides an alternative and promising approach to analyze the evolution of coal ratio in energy consumption structure and may have potential application in other areas and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uber is a prominent example of the sharing economy and a key player in the transportation service market. In this paper, we investigate how Uber adopts a dynamic pricing system in its compensation structure design for driver rewards. A longitudinal and citywide comparison of the Uber driver reward system reveals that Uber reacts to local taxi conditions in China by creating different reward conditions in unique city environments in response to taxi possession rates. The dynamic pricing model embedded in the Uber driver reward system benefits hardworking drivers (particularly during peak periods) and those who provide a friendly and efficient service experience for passengers. In addition, we identify significant benefits introduced by Uber including significantly improvement of driver remuneration and reduction of the taxi plate subscription premium. These findings contribute evidences of the utility of dynamic pricing systems, especially in compensation structure design, as well as positive influences introduced by sharing economy in tackling taxi service market monopoly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work studies the field prediction and smoothing problems, where the spatio-temporal field in 2-D is described by a stochastic dynamical system and observed by a number of spatially deployed sensors. We adopt a finite-element technique to approximate the field dynamics with piece-wise Gaussian functions, leading to a high-dimensional linear stochastic system. By exploiting its sparsity, a local covariance intersection-based filter and smoother are developed in each sensor only for a moderate number of state variables via communications with nearby sensors. Such a cooperative scheme is both communication and computation efficient. We prove the uniform stability of the local filter and smoother under mild conditions, and validate their effectiveness on two application examples: the temperature prediction of a metal rod and the source localization of a PM2.5 field with a real dataset in a city of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's electricity market reform poses an urgent demand for grid parity of renewable energy (RE), however, the high initial investment cost makes it difficult to achieve. Although feed-in tariff (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) schemes are both practical policy tools to support the development of the RE industry, which policy is more consistent with the goal of grid parity? Accordingly, based on the system dynamic model, this research studies the levelized cost of RE (LCOE) under FIT and RPS, respectively. The results show that: First, under the current FIT scheme, wind (onshore) and photovoltaic (PV) power both cannot achieve grid parity. To realize it, extra payouts in four categories of areas should at least be 0.236, 0.244, 0.299 and 0.261 CNY/kWh. Similarly, additional subsidies for PV in Tibet and the northwest region except Tibet need to be 0.924 and 0.764 CNY/kWh. Second, under the RPS, wind (onshore) power can basically achieve grid parity, but PV cannot. Subsidies for PV need at least to be 0.525 and 0.364 CNY/kWh to achieve grid parity. Therefore, compared with the current FIT in China, the policy combination of FIT and RPS adjusted to local conditions is more conducive to realizing grid parity. • Under the current feed-in tariff (FIT), wind and photovoltaic (PV) cannot achieve grid parity. • Under the renewable portfolio standards (RPS), wind can achieve grid parity, but PV cannot. • The policy mix of FIT and RPS adjusted to local conditions can realize grid parity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamical system for optimal path of energy and resources between two cities in China is considered in this paper. We have discussed dynamics of variables and parameters involved in mentioned system. Bifurcation analysis around non-hyperbolic equilibria is also explained for codimension 1 and 2 bifurcations. Furthermore, double-zero eigenvalue condition is calculated for the proposed model. We have adopted methodology of the generalized vectors for existence of Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation critical point and used analytical computations instead of center manifold theorem for Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation around zero equilibria. Further, with the aid of bifurcation diagram, phase portraits and time history, we discussed occurrence of period doubling, Hopf bifurcation and chaotic region of our proposed model. Based on Lyapunov function and robust control, optimal controllers are designed using Hamilton-Jacobi theorem for the stability of disturbance and aperiodic solution in optimal transportation system (3) due to energy imports from city A to city B. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a robust text classification and correspondence analysis approach to identification of similar languages. In particular, we propose to use the readily available information of clauses and word length distribution to model similar languages. The modeling and classification are based on the hypothesis that languages are self-adaptive complex systems and hence can be classified by dynamic features describing the system, especially in terms of distributional relations of constituents of a system. For similar languages whose grammatical differences are often subtle, classification based on dynamic system features should be more effective. To test this hypothesis, we considered both regional and genre varieties of Mandarin Chinese for classification. The data are extracted from two comparable balanced corpora to minimize possible confounding factors. The two corpora are the Sinica Corpus from Taiwan and the Lancaster Corpus of Mandarin Chinese from Mainland China, and the two genres are reportage and review. Our text classification and correspondence analysis results show that the linguistically felicitous two-level constituency model combining power functions between word and clauses effectively classifies the two varieties of Chinese for both genres. In addition, we found that genres do have compounding effect on classification of regional varieties. In particular, reportage in two varieties is more likely to be classified than review, corroborating the complex system view of language variations. That is, language variations and changes typically do not take place evenly across the board for the complete language system. This further enhances our hypothesis that dynamic complex system features, such as the power functions captured by the Menzerath–Altmann law, provide effective models in classifications of similar languages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the acceleration of China's urbanization process, construction activities have led to a substantial increase in construction waste. However, as China's construction waste recycling rate is low, it is difficult to convert construction waste into valuable products for the sustainable development of waste resources. The biggest reason for this is the construction waste industrial chain, which is imperfect and has many problems. In this study, a simulation model is established using system dynamics software Vensim PLE. The analogue simulation shows that (1) China generates a large amount of construction waste every year. If construction waste source reduction measures are implemented, it will inhibit 50% of the waste generated. Upstream enterprises in the industry chain should actively develop waste reduction technology and improve waste reduction management; (2) marginal effect exists in the single waste reduction measure, but the government should implement more portfolio reduction measures to enhance the reduction effect, which is often three times that of the single policy; (3) the middle stream recycling enterprises in the industry chain cannot solely rely on government subsidies to reduce the cost of waste recycling. It is necessary to create synergistic linkages with more responsible entities upstream and downstream of the industry chain, thus creating a new model in construction waste management. (4) Government policies tend to drive the purchasing power of building material market. The government should actively exert its subjective initiative, supervise and provide policies to help the downstream enterprises that supply recycled building materials in the industry chain, and change the rigid understanding of contractors and owners about recycled building materials. The research conclusions can provide theoretical guidance for industry chain-related enterprises and government management departments in policy formulation, so that construction waste is sustainably developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From a dynamical systems perspective, COVID-19 infectious disease emerges via an instability in human populations. Accordingly, the human population free of COVID-19 infected individuals is an unstable state and the dynamics away from that unstable state is a bifurcation. Recent research has determined COVID-19 relevant bifurcation parameters for various countries in terms of basic reproduction ratios. However, little is known about the relevant order parameters (synergetics) of COVID-19 bifurcations and the corresponding time constants. Those order parameters describe directions in compartment model spaces in which infection dynamics initially evolves. The corresponding time constants describe the speed of the dynamics along those directions. COVID-19 order parameters and their time constants are derived within a standard SEIR dynamical systems framework and determined explicitly for two published studies on COVID-19 trajectories in Italy and China. The results suggest the existence of certain relationships between order parameters, time constants, and reproduction ratios. However, the examples from Italy and China also suggest that COVID-19 order parameters and time constants in general depend on regional differences and the stage of the local COVID-19 epidemic under consideration. These findings may help to improve the forecasting of COVID-19 outbreaks in new hotspots around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]