1. Quantification of the Heat-Related Risk and Burden of Hospitalizations for Cause-Specific Injuries and Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study in China.
- Author
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Lu Zhou, Cong Liu, Cheng He, Jian Lei, Yixiang Zhu, Ya Gao, Jianwei Xuan, Haidong Kan, and Renjie Chen
- Subjects
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LEG injuries , *INJURY risk factors , *ARM injuries , *RISK assessment , *ENVIRONMENTAL health , *NECK injuries , *GREENHOUSE effect , *DATA analysis , *BURNS & scalds , *RESEARCH funding , *HOSPITAL care , *CLIMATE change , *SEX distribution , *LOGISTIC regression analysis , *DESCRIPTIVE statistics , *RELATIVE medical risk , *POPULATION geography , *GLOBAL burden of disease , *HEAT , *ANTHROPOGENIC effects on nature , *CROSSOVER trials , *ELECTRONIC health records , *STATISTICS , *TEMPERATURE , *ATTRIBUTION (Social psychology) , *CONFIDENCE intervals , *DATA analysis software , *TORSO , *IMPACT of Event Scale , *PSYCHOLOGICAL vulnerability , *HEAD injuries , *POISONING - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although ambient temperature has been linked with injury incidence, there have been few nationwide studies to quantify the temperature-related risk and burden of cause-specific injury hospitalizations. Additionally, the impact of human-induced climate change to injury burden remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to examine the associations between ambient temperature and injury hospitalizations from various causes and to quantify the contribution of human-induced warming to the heat-related burden. METHODS: We collected injury hospitalization data from a nationwide hospital-based registry in China during 2000–2019. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design, we investigated the associations between daily mean temperature (°C) and cause-specific injury hospitalizations. We also quantified the burden of heat-related injuries under the scenarios with and without anthropogenic forcing, using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project to assess the contribution of human-induced warming. RESULTS: Our study included a total of 988,087 patients with hospitalization records for injuries. Overall, compared to the temperature at minimum risk of hospitalization (-12:1°C), the relative risk of hospitalization at extreme hot temperature (30.8°C, 97.5th percentile) was 1.18 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.22], with an approximately linear association between temperature and hospitalization. Vulnerability to heat-related injuries was more pronounced among males, young (<18 years of age) or middle-aged (45–64 years of age) individuals, and those living in the North. The heatrelated attributable fraction increased from 23.2% in the 2000s to 23.6% in the 2010s, with a corresponding increase in the contribution of humaninduced change over time. In the 2010s, the heat-related attributable fractions for specific causes of injury ranged from 12.4% to 54.4%, with humaninduced change accounting for 6.7% to 10.6% of the burden. DISCUSSION: This nationwide study presents new evidence of significant associations between temperature and cause-specific injury hospitalizations in China and highlights the increasing contribution of human-induced warming to the injury burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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