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[Display omitted] • Most extreme climate indices rose from 2000 to 2020 in Central Asia. • Extreme climates lead to the delayed start and advanced end of the season. • Future increases in extreme climates may continue to affect land surface phenology. Global climate change has led to an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climates (e.g., extreme temperature and precipitation), and its impact on land surface phenology (LSP) has attracted increasing attention. This study evaluated the effects of extreme climates on land surface phenology in Central Asia (CA) based on 13 extreme climate indices (ECIs). The results showed that the start of the season (SOS) of the LSP was gradually delayed, the end of the season (EOS) advanced, and the length of the growing season (LOS) shortened. Most ECIs showed varying degrees of an increasing trend, except the cold indices of the cool days (TX10p) and the cool nights (TN10p) and the precipitation indices of the max one-day precipitation amount (RX1day) and the max five-day precipitation amount (RX5day). The LSP was influenced by extreme climates, and 13 ECIs were mainly negatively correlated with the SOS and positively correlated with the EOS and LOS. Increased extreme temperature and decreased extreme precipitation contributed to the change in the LSP. The most important impact on the SOS was from the max Tmin (TNx), the mean Tmax (TXmean), while the mean Tmin (TNmean) and warm days (TX90p) also had noticeable effects. The most important impact on the EOS and LOS was from TX90p, followed by TX10p and TXmean. Based on climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future extreme climates are projected to intensify under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and will likely continue to affect the LSP. This study helps provide a basis for formulating scientific and reasonable vegetation restoration strategies and disaster warnings in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Quantified the change of soil erosion in Central Asia under global warming. • Effects of natural factors on soil erosion were analyzed. • Population exposure was introduced to evaluate the risk of soil erosion. • Wind erosion will decrease and water erosion will increase in Central Asia. Soil erosion is a threat to the ecological environment and human health. Climate change is closely related to soil erosion, and the ecological environment in Central Asia is sensitive to climate change. However, there is a lack of comprehensive risk assessments of the soil erosion by wind and water in Central Asia under climate change. This study used climate model data to simulate the spatiotemporal variation of wind and water erosion in Central Asia during the current period (1996–2015) and in the future with global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C (GW1.5 °C and GW2.0 °C, respectively) compared with the pre-industrial levels. The variations of exposure of population to soil erosion in the future were assessed. The results showed that the overall wind erosion in Central Asia is decreasing, but the area in which increasing wind erosion occurs will increase (2.6% under GW1.5 °C, and 8.6% under GW2.0 °C) compared with the current period. Water erosion in Central Asia is increasing, and the area in which increasing water erosion occurs will increase by 10.2% under GW1.5 °C, and 20.3% under GW2.0 °C. The central arid desert shrub area of Central Asia is the only area where both wind and water erosion increase significantly. Wind speed and precipitation are the main factors that contribute to wind and water erosion. Higher vegetation cover helps to reduce wind and water erosion. Under global warming, more population in Central Asia will be affected by soil erosion, primarily in the upper reaches of the Amu River and the lower reaches of the Syr River. This study should provide a scientific basis for formulating the ecological development plans in Central Asia to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]