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We present a 500‐year precipitation‐sensitive record based on co‐varying speleothem δ18O values and Mg/Ca ratios from Larga cave in Puerto Rico. This multi‐proxy record shows that the evolution of rainfall in the northeastern Caribbean was characterized by alternating centennial dry and wet phases corresponding to reduced versus enhanced convective activity. These phases occurred synchronous with relatively cool and warm tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), respectively. While the observed pattern suggests a close link of northeastern Caribbean rainfall to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, a regional comparison reveals intermittent regional heterogeneity especially on decadal timescales, which may be related to a superimposing influence of the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Furthermore, the speleothem‐based hydroclimate reconstruction indicates a significant volcanic impact during the past two centuries, and further reveals a potential solar signal in the preceding three centuries. We posit that the forcing likely shifted from solar to volcanic during the eighteenth century in being an important source of multidecadal to centennial Caribbean rainfall variability. The link between convective rainfall and natural forcing may be explained through a modulation of SST variations in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is expected to affect rainfall throughout the Caribbean and Central America, where over 200 million people are heavily dependent upon rain as their main source of freshwater. We have looked at how the amount of rainfall in the Caribbean has changed through time, and possible reasons for these changes, to inform predictions of future rainfall patterns for the region. Cave mineral deposits, also known as speleothems, can be used to assess the amount of regional rainfall in the past by looking at their slight changes over time in the mineral's chemical composition. We created a record of Caribbean rainfall spanning the last five centuries using a speleothem from Puerto Rico. Our results indicate that rainfall changes since the sixteenth century were strongly influenced by changes in temperatures of the surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean. We further found that changes in the sun's brightness and volcanic eruptions may alter Atlantic Ocean sea‐surface temperature, which in turn affect the overall changes in Caribbean rainfall patterns. Key Points: Speleothem‐based Puerto Rican rainfall reconstruction shows prominent multidecadal‐to‐centennial variability during the past five centuriesPuerto Rican rainfall fluctuations are linked to solar variations before the eighteenth century and volcanic forcing thereafterCaribbean Sea‐surface temperature anomalies as part of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability emerge as robust precursor of rainfall amounts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of tropical Atlantic precipitation patterns to the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at different time scales is well‐known. However, recent research suggests a more complex behavior of the northern hemispheric tropical rain belt related to the ITCZ in the western tropical Atlantic. Here we present a precisely dated speleothem multi‐proxy record from a well‐monitored cave in Puerto Rico, covering the period between 46.2 and 15.3 ka. The stable isotope and trace element records document a pronounced response of regional rainfall to abrupt climatic excursions in the North Atlantic across the Last Glacial such as Heinrich stadials and Dansgaard/Oeschger events. The annual to multidecadal resolution of the proxy time series allows substructural investigations of the recorded events. Spectral analysis suggests that multidecadal to centennial variability persisted in the regional hydroclimate mainly during interstadial conditions but also during the Last Glacial Maximum. In particular, we observe a strong agreement between the speleothem proxy data and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, supporting a persistent link of oceanic forcing to regional precipitation. Comparison to other paleo‐precipitation records enables the reconstruction of past changes in position, strength, and extent of the ITCZ in the western tropical Atlantic in response to millennial‐ and orbital‐scale global climate change. Plain Language Summary: It is important to understand the climatic circumstances of how rainfall in the western tropical Atlantic varies under a changing climate to better manage the water supply for millions of people. However, it is not well understood how rainfall varied in the past, especially during the Last Glacial period, a time of strong climate variability and abrupt climate changes. Here, we use a stalagmite from Puerto Rico to create a new record of past changes in rainfall in this region. For this purpose, we analyzed proxy data that reveal a series of wet and dry periods during the Last Glacial corresponding to rapid global climate shifts. Our rainfall‐sensitive stalagmite record captured changes of the tropical rain belt on various timescales and shows that this variability in rainfall is closely connected to changes in the strength of the ocean circulation. This suggests that the link between the ocean and the atmosphere is more robust than previously assumed. The comparison of our record with other rainfall‐sensitive records from Central America and the northern Caribbean allows for a detailed reconstruction of the spatial and temporal changes of the western tropical Atlantic rain belt. Key Points: Puerto Rican speleothem record documents multidecadal to millennial‐scale precipitation variability between 46.2 and 15.3 kaClimate proxies show a distinct rainfall response to abrupt North Atlantic climate change including Heinrich and Dansgaard/Oeschger eventsCompilation of regional precipitation records allows to reconstruct past changes in ITCZ patterns in the western tropical Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The connection between climatic change and social response is complex because change articulates a number of inter-related factors. Human decisions are filtered by social buffers – including social memory, risk perception, and cultural priorities – and the rate and scale of climate change is usually much larger than the scale of human decision-making. In this article, we provide information on climate change based on precisely dated speleothems with the response evident in archaeological sites that have radiocarbon date ranges within the same time frame. A stalagmite recovered from within the catchment area for aquifer recharge of the Pre-Arawak site of Angostura in Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, shows that a significant wet period occurred between 3.9 and 3.1 ka (primarily centered at 3.5 ka). We investigate the effect that this increase in precipitation had on the earliest occupations on the island in the context of palaeoenvironmental, geoarchaeological, and archaeological records from Angostura, Maruca, and Paso del Indio. Our analysis suggests the presence of two different adaptation strategies: settlement relocation and microlandscape modification. Our study concludes that the social response to change cannot be seen as monolithic given that human behavior, even within the same period, addresses the needs of individual groups with different priorities. This multiplicity of responses can indeed enhance resilience as social support can continue through alliances and exchanges, strengthening social bonds that can help buffer catastrophes. The results can help shed light on the range of adaptation strategies to change encompassed within the manifestations of social resilience or vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: We present a speleothem stable oxygen isotope record for the last 12.5ka based on two stalagmites from western Cuba. The δ 18O signal is interpreted to represent past precipitation variability. Both stalagmites show a pronounced transition from higher δ 18O values (indicating drier conditions) to more negative δ 18O values (suggesting wetter conditions) between 10 and 6ka. This transition is also visible in a planktonic δ 18O record off Haiti. On orbital timescales, the δ 18O value of Caribbean precipitation, thus, strongly resembles the oxygen isotope composition of Caribbean surface water. On millenial timescales, the speleothem δ 18O record shows a high correlation to a North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) record off West Africa as well as a similarity with the Bond events. Periods of lower North Atlantic SST correspond to less precipitation in the Caribbean and vice versa. The potential teleconnection to the Caribbean may reflect the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone because a further southward position of the ITCZ leads to reduced precipitation in the northern Caribbean. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]