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The recharging of electric vehicles will undoubtedly entail an increase in demand. Traditionally, efforts have been made to shift their recharging to off-peak hours of the consumption curve, where energy demand is lower, typically during nighttime hours. However, the introduction of photovoltaic solar energy presents a new scenario to consider when synchronizing generation and demand curves. High-generation surpluses are expected during the central day hours, due to the significant contribution of this generation; these surpluses could be utilized for electric vehicle recharging. Hence, these demand-side management analyses present important challenges for electricity systems and markets. This research explores this overdemand avenue and presents a method for determining the ideal recharge curve of the electric vehicle. Consequently, with this objective of maximizing photovoltaic generation to cover as much of the foreseeable demand for electric vehicles as possible in future scenarios of the electrification of the economy, the six fundamental electric vehicle charging profiles have been analyzed. A practical scenario for 2040 is projected for the Canary Islands, estimating the potential levels of demand-side management and associated coverage. The coverage ranges from less than 20% to over 40%, considering the absence of demand-side management measures and the maximum displacement achievable through such measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Scenario for fulfilling electric and hydrogen demand through carbon-free sources. • Evaluation of uncertainties in a scenario covering all final energy uses. • Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis based on the Wilks' methodology application. • System resizing to meet energy uses with 99x99% of coverage and confidence levels. • Disparities in demand side modeling when using deterministic and stochastic methods. This study explores the transition of the Canary Islands from a fossil fuel-dependent energy system to a decarbonized economy framework by 2040, utilizing a novel Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach integrated with Wilk's formula. The research focuses on the challenges and methodologies involved in shifting to green energy sources—specifically solar photovoltaic, wind and nuclear power—while also incorporating hydrogen as an alternative energy vector for non-electrifiable sectors. The BEPU framework is central to the methodology, enhanced by correlation analysis and synthetic curve generation techniques to address the inherent variability of renewable energy sources and fluctuating energy demands and identify the most important inputs uncertainties for an optimized deterministic scenario. Using Wilk's Formula, this methodology allows for a detailed examination of 459 different input variable random combinations of wind speed, sun irradiance, electric and hydrogen demand uncertainties, reaching 99/99% coverage and confidence levels. 60% of the simulations showed energy shortages, with a potential of up to 5.2% of the total demand. To counteract this risk in the isolated power system, a 30% increase in installed power capacity was deemed necessary, which resulted in a 15% rise in the overall system costs to ensure demand fulfillment across all simulations. The correlation analysis highlights the significance of economic growth and the electrification of the vehicle fleet in meeting the future uncertain energy demands of the Canary Islands. Significant advancements in renewable energy infrastructure are needed to ensure reliability and meet future energy demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]