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Being higher on the socio-economic scale is correlated with being in better health, but is there is a causal relationship? Using 3 years of longitudinal data for individuals aged 50 and older from the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, we study the health transitions for those who were in good health in the first year, focusing especially on income and education. The initial good health restriction removes from the sample those whose incomes may have been affected by a previous history of poor health, thus avoiding a well-known problem of econometric endogeneity. We then ask, for those in good health, whether later transitions in health status are related to socio-economic status. We find that they are--that changes in health status over the subsequent 2 years are related, in particular, to income and education.

Reassesses the social costs of prospective population aging in Canada using unweighted and weighted dependency ratios, projected government spending levels required, and those levels expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product. Concludes that cost increases related to aging should be of manageable proportions. (SK)

Copyright of Canadian Studies in Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The authors show that Canada's demographic situation in the future will differ substantially from what has been known in the past. Their analysis suggests that up to about 2010 population change will have less of an impact on the real level of aggregate government expenditures than on the size of the real gross national product. (Author/CT)

A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialised countries throughout the world and will continue well into the future. We make use of a framework that we developed in earlier work to isolate the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP in the 10 Canadian provinces and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. For comparison, we consider also some changes relating to the supply of labour as possible alternative offsets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadians are living longer and retiring younger. When combined with the aging of the baby-boom generation, that means that the 'inactive' portion of the population is increasing and there are concerns about possibly large increases in the burden of support on those who are younger. We model the impact of continued future gains in life expectancy on the size of the population that receives public pension benefits. We pay special attention to possible increases in the age of eligibility and the pension contribution rate that would maintain the publicly financed component of the retirement income security system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Studies in Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Expert Panel on Older Workers made recommendations designed to increase the labour force participation of older workers. We explore the implications that higher rates of older-worker participation would have for the overall size and age composition of the labour force, for the productive capacity of the economy, and for the incomes of Canadians. Our purpose is to assess the potential impact that increased participation of older workers might have in offsetting any anticipated adverse effects of population aging on standards of living. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well established that there is a positive statistical relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and health, but identifying the direction of causation is difficult. This study exploits the longitudinal nature of two Canadian surveys, the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics and the National Population Health Survey, to study the link from SES to health (as distinguished from the health-to-SES link). For people aged 50 and older, who are initially in good health, we examine whether changes in health status over the next two to four years are related to prior SES, as represented by income and education. Although the two surveys were designed for different purposes and had different questions for income and health, the evidence they yield with respect to the probability of remaining in good health is similar. Both suggest that SES does play a role and that the differences across SES groups are quantitatively significant, increase with age, and are much the same for men and women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies the impact of fertility on the population and labor force in Canada. Relevance of the baby boom generation on the society and economy; Instrument of control for the fertility scenarios; Postwar transformation of women's participation in the labor force.

Studies the effects of population change on requirements for physicians in Ontario. Age profiles of the utilization of physician services; Effect of aging on the distribution of requirements among categories of physicians; Tendency for utilization rates to rise with age; Age distribution of fee payments for male and female patients by category of physicians and for those physicians paid on a fee-for-service basis.

A quadratic almost ideal demand system allowing for age, cohort, and trend effects is developed at the macro level. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood, using a three-tier iterative/search method applied to pooled 1961-1992 time series for five regions of Canada and six categories of expenditure. Hypothesis tests indicate support for the model specification. Elasticities are compared with those reported in other studies, with special attention to food. Effects of demographic and trend variables on elasticities and expenditure shares are investigated. An overall conclusion is that such effects can be very important in a macro demand system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for housing is analysed within the context of an overall household expenditure system in which housing is viewed as both a consumption good and an investment good. The risk associated with holding housing as an asset is given special attention. The expenditure system is estimated using Canadian survey data and the results are interpreted. The results suggest that households are risk-averse and that the degree of risk-aversion increases with age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Studies in Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Discusses a model of month-to-month flows of population within the Canadian labor force. Basis of the determination of the flows; Description of the basic components of the simulation model; Alternative forms of the equations for generating probabilities.

The article presents results of a case study based on the Canadian preliminary national accounts, that was done to analyze the effect of measurement errors on parameter estimates and forecasts. It was found that the estimates of equations derived from mixed data agreed reasonably well, on the whole, with those derived from final data. The preliminary data were found to be reasonably reliable as measures of historical annual change and as a basis for short-run prediction. However, a widespread tendency towards understatement was noted in the data, and this was found to be transmitted to the forecasts. Much of the loss of accuracy associated with the use of preliminary data was traced to a few variables in the system. This led to the suggestion that forecasting models should be examined with a view to minimizing the influence of such variables. The evidence presented in this article seems to support the view that problems of measurement error and the reliability of preliminary data deserve more attention than they have usually received in the estimation of econometric models and in forecasting work.

Surveys of chronic health conditions provide information about prevalence but not incidence and the process of change within the population. Our study shows how "age dynamics" of chronic conditions – the probabilities of contracting conditions at different ages, of moving from one chronic condition state to another, and of dying – can be inferred from prevalence data for those conditions that can be viewed as irreversible. Transition probability matrices are constructed for successive age groups, with the sequence representing the age dynamics of the health conditions for a stationary population. We simulate the life path of a cohort under the initial probabilities, and again under altered probabilities, to explore the effects of reducing the incidence or mortality rate associated with a particular condition. We show that such surveys of chronic conditions can be made even more valuable by allowing the calculation of the transition probabilities that define the chronic conditions aging process.

Since the prevalence of many chronic health conditions increases with age, we might anticipate that as the population ages the proportion with one or more such conditions, and the cost of treatment, would rise. How much would the overall prevalence of chronic conditions increase in a quarter century if age-specific rates of prevalence did not change? How much would the requirements for health care resources increase? How much difference would it make to those requirements if people had fewer chronic conditions? The overall prevalence rates for almost all conditions associated mostly with old age would rise by more than 25 per cent, and health care requirements would grow more rapidly than the population - more than twice as rapidly in the case of hospital stays - if the rates for each age group remained constant. Even modest reductions in the average number of conditions at each age could result in substantial savings.

This is a study of the influence of socioeconomic factors on the state of health of older Canadians. Three years of panel data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics are used to model the transition probabilities between good and poor health. Care is taken to avoid the problem of endogeneity of income in modelling its effects, and to adjust reported income to free it from its strong association with age at the time of the survey. Of particular note are the significant effects found for income, in spite of universal public health care coverage. Significant effects are found also for age, education, and other variables.