1. The Streamflow Response to Multi‐Day Warm Anomaly Events: Sensitivity to Future Warming and Spatiotemporal Variability by Event Magnitude.
- Author
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Anderson, Sam and Chartrand, Shawn
- Subjects
SNOWMELT ,HEAT waves (Meteorology) ,CLIMATE extremes ,WATER use ,GLACIAL melting - Abstract
Persistent warm temperature anomalies can drive streamflow in regions where snow and glacier melt are important constituents of streamflow. However, the spatiotemporal variability of the streamflow response depends on both the magnitude of the forcing temperature anomalies and the nature of the underlying hydrological system. Here we ask: when, where, and for what magnitude of temperature anomalies will the streamflow response change most rapidly under warming? We use observed streamflow and temperature for 868 basins across Canada to quantify the streamflow response during warm temperature anomalies and how such responses vary in space, time, and by anomaly magnitude. We first identify two temporal modes of the streamflow response, one in autumn and one in spring, the relative strength of which varies by climate. We then use sinusoidal approximations of seasonal temperature cycles to characterize the sensitivity of such modes to changes in annual temperature. At individual basins, we find that relative to moderate warm events, the streamflow response to more extreme warm events is more sensitive to changes in mean annual temperatures, and this sensitivity is greatest in the coastal, southern, and central regions of Canada. Our results have implications for how the hydrological impacts of extreme events, such as heatwaves, will change in space and time under future climate change. Plain Language Summary: Warm temperature anomalies can drive streamflow in places that depend on snow and glacier melt. However, it is not well understood the rate at which the characteristics of the streamflow responses to warm temperature anomalies will change under warming. We present a straightforward method to characterize the observed streamflow responses to multi‐day warm events, and to understand how their sensitivity to warming varies in space, through time, and by magnitude of warm event. We find that relative to moderate warm events, the streamflow response to more extreme warm events is more sensitive to changes in mean annual temperatures. This implies that under warming, there will be an outsized change in the streamflow responses to extreme warm events relative to moderate warm events, with implications for water management under extreme events such as heatwaves. Key Points: We investigate the variability of streamflow responses to multiday warm temperature anomalies and their sensitivity to warming across CanadaUnder warming, the streamflow response to extreme temperature anomalies will change more than the streamflow response to moderate anomaliesOur findings have implications for downstream ecosystems and water users as warm events become more frequent and intense [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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