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As compared to load demand, frequent wind energy intermittencies produce large short-term (sub 1-h to 3-h) deficits (and surpluses) in the energy supply. These intermittent deficits pose systemic and structural risks that will likely lead to energy deficits that have significant reliability implications for energy system operators and consumers. This work provides a toolset to help policy makers quantify these first-order risks. The thinking methodology/framework shows that increasing wind energy penetration significantly increases the risk of loss in California. In addition, the work presents holistic risk tables as a general innovation to help decision makers quickly grasp the full impact of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Wind power production is variable, but also has diurnal and seasonal patterns. These patterns differ between sites, potentially making electric power from some wind sites more valuable for meeting customer loads or selling in wholesale power markets. This paper investigates whether the timing of wind significantly affects the value of electricity from sites in California and the Northwestern United States. We use both measured and modeled wind data and estimate the time-varying value of wind power with both financial and load-based metrics. We find that the potential difference in wholesale market value between better-correlated and poorly correlated wind sites is modest, on the order of 5%-10%. A load-based metric, power production during the top 10% of peak load hours, varies more strongly between sites, suggesting that the capacity value of different wind projects could vary by as much as 50% based on the timing of wind alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]