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In this work, we focus on industrial sector decarbonization in California through the synthesis and injection of Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) into the existing natural gas pipeline using two technology approaches: (1) a net carbon-negative biomass SNG process from wood residue gasification, and (2) a carbon-neutral Power-to-Gas (PtG) SNG process for the chemical storage of surplus electricity from high adoption of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity grid (e.g., more than 20% of electricity supply from wind and solar). SNG is a key potential low-carbon fuel to meet an array of industrial process requirements without replacing application-specific end-use equipment. We outline and model pathways that can make these technologies more competitive and present a case study for the industrial sector in California, accounting for industrial fuel demand, feedstock supply, and recent federal incentives for carbon capture and storage (45Q federal regulation). A performance assessment and economic analysis with single and coupled parameter sensitivity have been carried out. BioSNG with carbon capture is found to be less expensive today ($96.67/MWh SNG) than PtG SNG ($421.21/MWh). PtG SNG has more opportunity for cost reduction with electrolyzer capital costs and electricity prices the most critical cost parameters. The estimated cost for bioSNG in 2050 ($73/MWh SNG) is lower than the projected reference citygate price of conventional natural gas in 2050 ($87.57/MWh), but the projected cost of PtG SNG is still two to three times higher unless a high capacity factor can be achieved with low electricity prices and lower electrolyzer cost. SNG can reduce up to 17% of industrial natural gas demand and almost 19 Mt CO 2 from California's industrial GHG emissions in 2050. These pathways represent significant opportunities to decarbonize the industrial sector but represent dramatic production changes and underscore the need for sustained policy commitments to support these technologies. • BioSNG can displace 19% of 2016 levels of industrial natural gas in California. • PtG-SNG can displace 7% of 2016 levels of industrial natural gas in California. • Estimated 2050 LCOE for bio- and lower-cost PtG SNG comparable to projected NG price. • The 45Q federal tax credit reduces the current price of bioSNG by 23%–31%. • In 2050, bioSNG with carbon capture gives 18.6 MtCO 2 industrial GHG reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries and regions of the world are pursuing aggressive decarbonization policies in the transportation sector aiming to sharply reduce the sales of conventional gasoline and diesel-powered internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), have zero tailpipe emissions, but still can be considerably more expensive than ICEVs, which is one key factor hampering their wide-scale adoption. Still, many decarbonization roadmaps and plans call for a large ramp up of ZEVs in coming years. For example, the International Energy Agency's aggressive 2DS high H 2 scenario estimates 11 M BEVs and 4 M FCEVs sold in 2030 and California has also set aggressive sales targets under its ZEV Mandate. This paper provides a detailed life cycle cost analysis comparison for FCEV versus other vehicle technologies, assuming these international adoption scenarios are implemented using a learning rate approach. Results show that the fuel cell system is the key factor in making FCEV life cycle costs comparable to ICEV costs. With an 18% learning rate, FCEVs are estimated to be cost competitive with ICEVs by 2025, but with an 8% learning rate, this cost-competitive point is pushed out almost 25 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Simulated hydrogen (H 2) demand from 2030 California fuel cell vehicle deployment. • Simulated electrolysis H 2 production using PLEXOS power system model of Western US. • Flexible electrolysis operation can reduce system costs, carbon dioxide emissions. Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been proposed as an option for lowering carbon dioxide (CO 2) and pollutants emissions from the transportation sector, when implemented in combination with green hydrogen production methods such as water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity. FCEVs also have the added advantages of high specific energy density and rapid refueling, two important challenges that battery electric vehicles have not yet fully overcome. Moreover, flexible operation of electrolysis could support the grid and lower electricity costs. In this paper, we simulate time-varying FCEV hydrogen refueling demand for light, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles met using electrolysis systems distributed throughout the Western U.S. power system. We find that by oversizing electrolyzers the resulting load flexibility results in different hydrogen generation temporal profiles, average electricity costs, renewable curtailment levels, and CO 2 emissions. Our results indicate that increasing hydrogen production flexibility lowers hydrogen and electricity generation cost and CO 2 emissions, but there is a tradeoff between lowering operational cost and increasing electrolyzer capital cost, yielding a minimum total system cost at a size corresponding to between 80% and 90% annual capacity factor assuming a future electrolyzer cost of $300/kW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets. Many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020-2050 timeframe. We conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand common insights across models, ranges of intermediate GHG targets (i.e., for 2030), necessary technology deployment rates, and future modeling needs for the state. The models are diverse in their representation of the California economy: across scenarios with deep reductions in GHGs, annual statewide GHG emissions are 8-46 % lower than 1990 levels by 2030 and 59-84 % lower by 2050 (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model); the largest cumulative reductions occur in scenarios that favor early mitigation; non-hydroelectric renewables account for 30-58 % of electricity generated for the state in 2030 and 30-89 % by 2050 (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model) ; the transportation sector is decarbonized using a mix of energy efficiency gains and alternative-fueled vehicles; and bioenergy is directed almost exclusively towards the transportation sector, accounting for a maximum of 40 % of transportation energy by 2050. Models suggest that without new policies, emissions from non-energy sectors and from high-global-warming-potential gases may alone exceed California's 2050 GHG goal. Finally, future modeling efforts should focus on the: economic impacts and logistical feasibility of given scenarios, interactive effects between two or more climate policies, role of uncertainty in the state's long-term energy planning, and identification of pathways that achieve the dual goals of criteria pollutant and GHG emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]