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Background: The accuracy of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Risk Equation for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in contemporary and ethnically diverse populations is not well understood.Objectives: The goal of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equation within a large, multiethnic population in clinical care.Methods: The target population for consideration of cholesterol-lowering therapy in a large, integrated health care delivery system population was identified in 2008 and followed up through 2013. The main analyses excluded those with known ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <70 or ≥190 mg/dl, prior lipid-lowering therapy use, or incomplete 5-year follow-up. Patient characteristics were obtained from electronic medical records, and ASCVD events were ascertained by using validated algorithms for hospitalization databases and death certificates. We compared predicted versus observed 5-year ASCVD risk, overall and according to sex and race/ethnicity. We additionally examined predicted versus observed risk in patients with diabetes mellitus.Results: Among 307,591 eligible adults without diabetes between 40 and 75 years of age, 22,283 were black, 52,917 were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 18,745 were Hispanic. We observed 2,061 ASCVD events during 1,515,142 person-years. In each 5-year predicted ASCVD risk category, observed 5-year ASCVD risk was substantially lower: 0.20% for predicted risk <2.50%; 0.65% for predicted risk 2.50% to <3.75%; 0.90% for predicted risk 3.75% to <5.00%; and 1.85% for predicted risk ≥5.00% (C statistic: 0.74). Similar ASCVD risk overestimation and poor calibration with moderate discrimination (C statistic: 0.68 to 0.74) were observed in sex, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic status subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses among patients receiving statins for primary prevention. Calibration among 4,242 eligible adults with diabetes was improved, but discrimination was worse (C statistic: 0.64).Conclusions: In a large, contemporary "real-world" population, the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equation substantially overestimated actual 5-year risk in adults without diabetes, overall and across sociodemographic subgroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Limited existing data suggest that the novel COVID-19 may increase risk of VTE, but information from large, ethnically diverse populations with appropriate control participants is lacking., Research Question: Does the rate of VTE among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 differ from matched hospitalized control participants without COVID-19?, Study Design and Methods: We conducted a retrospective study among hospitalized adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and hospitalized adults without evidence of COVID-19 matched for age, sex, race or ethnicity, acute illness severity, and month of hospitalization between January 2020 and August 2020 from two integrated health care delivery systems with 36 hospitals. Outcomes included VTE (DVT or pulmonary embolism ascertained using diagnosis codes combined with validated natural language processing algorithms applied to electronic health records) and death resulting from any cause at 30 days. Fine and Gray hazards regression was performed to evaluate the association of COVID-19 with VTE after accounting for competing risk of death and residual differences between groups, as well as to identify predictors of VTE in patients with COVID-19., Results: We identified 6,319 adults with COVID-19 and 6,319 matched adults without COVID-19, with mean ± SD age of 60.0 ± 17.2 years, 46% women, 53.1% Hispanic, 14.6% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 10.3% Black. During 30-day follow-up, 313 validated cases of VTE (160 COVID-19, 153 control participants) and 1,172 deaths (817 in patients with COVID-19, 355 in control participants) occurred. Adults with COVID-19 showed a more than threefold adjusted risk of VTE (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.48; 95% CI, 2.03-5.98) compared with matched control participants. Predictors of VTE in patients with COVID-19 included age ≥ 55 years, Black race, prior VTE, diagnosed sepsis, prior moderate or severe liver disease, BMI ≥ 40 kg/m 2 , and platelet count > 217 k/μL., Interpretation: Among ethnically diverse hospitalized adults, COVID-19 infection increased the risk of VTE, and selected patient characteristics were associated with higher thromboembolic risk in the setting of COVID-19., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background Variation in outcomes by race/ethnicity in adults with heart failure (HF) has been previously observed. Identifying factors contributing to these variations could help target interventions. We evaluated the association of race/ethnicity with HF outcomes and potentially contributing factors within a contemporary HF cohort. Methods and Results We identified members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, a large integrated healthcare delivery system, who were diagnosed with HF between 2012 and 2016 and had at least 1 year of prior continuous membership and left ventricular ejection fraction data. We used Cox regression with time-dependent covariates to evaluate the association of self-identified race/ethnicity with HF or all-cause hospitalization and all-cause death, with backward selection for potential explanatory variables. Among 34 621 patients with HF, compared with White patients, Black patients had a higher rate of HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.18-1.38) but a lower rate of death (adjusted HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.72-0.85). In contrast, Asian/Pacific Islander patients had similar rates of HF hospitalization, but lower rates of all-cause hospitalization (adjusted HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93) and death (adjusted HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.80). Hispanic patients also had a lower rate of death (adjusted HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.91). Sensitivity analyses showed that effect sizes for Black patients were larger among patients with reduced ejection fraction. Conclusions In a contemporary and diverse population with HF, Black patients experienced a higher rate of HF hospitalization and a lower rate of death compared with White patients. In contrast, selected outcomes for Asian/Pacific Islander and Hispanic patients were more favorable compared with White patients. The observed differences were not explained by measured potentially modifiable factors, including pharmacological treatment. Future research is needed to identify explanatory mechanisms underlying ongoing racial/ethnic variation to target potential interventions.

Background: Whether lower dose cabergoline therapy for hyperprolactinemia increases risk of valvular dysfunction remains controversial. We examined valvular abnormalities among asymptomatic adults with hyperprolactinemia treated with dopamine agonists., Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among adults receiving cabergoline or bromocriptine for > 12 months for hyperprolactinemia and had no cardiac-related symptoms. Cardiac valve morphology and function were assessed from transthoracic echocardiograms at the study visit (except for two participants) with evaluation performed blinded to type and duration of dopamine agonist received., Results: Among 174 participants (mean age 49 ± 13 years, 63% women) without known structural heart disease before starting therapy, 62 received only cabergoline, 63 received only bromocriptine, and 49 received both. Median cabergoline use was 2.8 years in cabergoline only users and 3.2 years for those exposed to both cabergoline and bromocriptine; median bromocriptine use was 5.5 years in bromocriptine only users and 1.1 years for those exposed to both cabergoline and bromocriptine. Compared with bromocriptine only users (17.5%), regurgitation of ≥1 valve was more common for cabergoline only (37.1%, P = 0.02) but not for combined exposure (26.5%, P = 0.26). Compared with bromocriptine only exposure (1.6%), regurgitation of ≥2 valves was more common for cabergoline only (11.3%, P = 0.03) and combined exposure (12.2%, P = 0.04). Cabergoline only users had higher age-sex-adjusted odds for ≥1 valve with grade 2+ regurgitation compared to bromocriptine only users (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.3-7.5, P = 0.008), but the association for combined exposure to cabergoline and bromocriptine was not significant (aOR 1.7, 95%CI:0.7-4.3, P = 0.26). Compared to bromocriptine only, age-sex-adjusted odds of ≥2 valves with grade 2+ regurgitation were higher for both cabergoline only (aOR 8.4, 95% CI:1.0-72.2, P = 0.05) and combined exposure (aOR 8.8, 95% CI:1.0-75.8, P = 0.05). Cumulative cabergoline exposure > 115 mg was associated with a higher age-sex adjusted odds of ≥2 valves with grade 2+ regurgitation (aOR 9.6, 95%CI:1.1-81.3, P = 0.04) compared to bromocriptine only., Conclusions: Among community-based adults treated for hyperprolactinemia, cabergoline use and greater cumulative cabergoline exposure were associated with a higher prevalence of primarily mild valvular regurgitation compared with bromocriptine. Research is needed to clarify which patients treated with dopamine agonists may benefit from echocardiographic screening and surveillance.

The impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) catheter ablation versus chronic antiarrhythmic therapy alone on clinical outcomes such as death and stroke remains unclear. We compared adverse outcomes for AF ablation versus chronic antiarrhythmic therapy in 1,070 adults with AF treated between 2010 and 2014 in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California and Southern California healthcare delivery systems. Patients who underwent AF catheter ablation were matched to patients treated with only antiarrhythmic medications, based on age, gender, history of heart failure, history of coronary heart disease, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, and high-dimensional propensity score. We compared crude and adjusted rates of death, ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, intracranial hemorrhage, and hospitalization. The matched cohort of 535 patients treated with AF ablation and 535 treated with antiarrhythmic therapy had a median follow-up of 2.0 (interquartile range 1.1 to 3.5) years. There was no significant difference in adjusted rates of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03 to 1.95), intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted HR 0.17, CI 0.02 to 1.71), ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (adjusted HR 0.53, CI 0.18 to 1.60), and heart failure hospitalization (adjusted HR 0.85, CI 0.34 to 2.12), although there was a trend toward improvement in these outcomes with ablation. However, there was a significantly increased risk of all-cause hospitalization following ablation (adjusted HR 1.60, CI 1.25 to 2.05). In a contemporary, multicenter, propensity-matched observational cohort, AF ablation was not significantly associated with death, intracranial hemorrhage, ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, or heart failure hospitalization, but was associated with a higher rate of all cause-hospitalization., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Contemporary data on complications and resource utilization after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation are limited. We evaluated rates and risk factors for procedural complication, rehospitalization, and emergency department visits after AF ablation. We identified all adult patients who underwent isolated AF ablation between 2010 and June 2014 in 2 large integrated health-care delivery systems and evaluated rates of acute inpatient complication, 30-day, and 1-year readmission and emergency evaluation. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of procedural complications, 30-day readmission, or 30-day emergency department evaluation. In 811 AF ablation patients, procedural complications occurred in 2.5% of patients, 9.7% of patients were rehospitalized within 30 days, and 19.1% of patients had an emergency visit within 30 days. At 1 year after AF ablation, 28.9% of patients were readmitted, with 18% of patients readmitted for AF or atrial flutter. At 1 year, 44.5% of patients were seen in an emergency department, with 37.1% related to AF or atrial flutter. Vascular complications and perforation or tamponade were the most common complications, and Hispanic ethnicity, mitral or aortic valvular disease, and diabetes mellitus were the strongest risk factors for adverse outcomes at 30 days after AF ablation. Contemporary rates of acute complication and 1-year readmission after AF ablation have markedly decreased compared with previous community-based studies., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)