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In this review and synthesis, we argue that California is an important test case for the nation and world because terrestrial biodiversity is very high, present and anticipated threats to biodiversity from climate change and other interacting stressors are severe, and innovative approaches to protecting biodiversity in the context of climate change are being developed and tested. We first review salient dimensions of California's terrestrial physical, biological, and human diversity. Next, we examine four facets of the threat to their sustainability of these dimensions posed by climate change: direct impacts, illustrated by a new analysis of shifting diversity hotspots for plants; interactive effects involving invasive species, land-use change, and other stressors; the impacts of changing fire regimes; and the impacts of land-based renewable energy development. We examine recent policy responses in each of these areas, representing attempts to better protect biodiversity while advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. We conclude that California's ambitious 30 × 30 Initiative and its efforts to harmonize biodiversity conservation with renewable energy development are important areas of progress. Adapting traditional suppression-oriented fire policies to the reality of new fire regimes is an area in which much progress remains to be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires may facilitate climate tracking of forest species moving upslope or north in latitude. For subalpine tree species, for which higher elevation habitat is limited, accelerated replacement by lower elevation montane tree species following fire may hasten extinction risk. We used a dataset of postfire tree regeneration spanning a broad geographic range to ask whether the fire facilitated upslope movement of montane tree species at the montane‐to‐subalpine ecotone. We sampled tree seedling occurrence in 248 plots across a fire severity gradient (unburned to >90% basal area mortality) and spanning ~500 km of latitude in Mediterranean‐type subalpine forest in California, USA. We used logistic regression to quantify differences in postfire regeneration between resident subalpine species and the seedling‐only range (interpreted as climate‐induced range extension) of montane species. We tested our assumption of increasing climatic suitability for montane species in subalpine forest using the predicted difference in habitat suitability at study plots between 1990 and 2030. We found that postfire regeneration of resident subalpine species was uncorrelated or weakly positively correlated with fire severity. Regeneration of montane species, however, was roughly four times greater in unburned relative to burned subalpine forest. Although our overall results contrast with theoretical predictions of disturbance‐facilitated range shifts, we found opposing postfire regeneration responses for montane species with distinct regeneration niches. Recruitment of shade‐tolerant red fir declined with fire severity and recruitment of shade‐intolerant Jeffrey pine increased with fire severity. Predicted climatic suitability increased by 5% for red fir and 34% for Jeffrey pine. Differing postfire responses in newly climatically available habitats indicate that wildfire disturbance may only facilitate range extensions for species whose preferred regeneration conditions align with increased light and/or other postfire landscape characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past four decades, annual area burned has increased significantly in California and across the western USA. This trend reflects a confluence of intersecting factors that affect wildfire regimes. It is correlated with increasing temperatures and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. Anthropogenic climate change is the driver behind much of this change, in addition to influencing other climate-related factors, such as compression of the winter wet season. These climatic trends and associated increases in fire activity are projected to continue into the future. Additionally, factors related to the suppression of the Indigenous use of fire, aggressive fire suppression and, in some cases, changes in logging practices or fuel management intensity, collectively have produced large build-ups of vegetative fuels in some ecosystems. Human activities provide the most common ignition source for California's wildfires. Despite its human toll, fire provides a range of ecological benefits to many California ecosystems. Given the diversity of vegetation types and fire regimes found in the state, addressing California's wildfire challenges will require multi-faceted and locally targeted responses in terms of fuel management, human-caused ignitions, building regulations and restrictions, integrative urban and ecosystem planning, and collaboration with Tribes to support the reinvigoration of traditional burning regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests currently face numerous stressors, raising questions about processes of forest recovery as well as the role of humans in stimulating recovery by planting trees that might not otherwise regenerate. Theoretically, planted trees can also provide a seed source for further recruitment once the planted trees become reproductive, acting as "nucleation" sites; however, it is unclear whether changing site conditions over time (e.g., through the growth of competitors like woody shrubs) influences establishment in the long term, even if seed availability increases. We tested the nucleation concept in a system where shrub competition is known to influence tree establishment and growth, performing an observational study of sites within and close to newly reproductive planted stands in yellow‐pine (YP) and mixed‐conifer ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, California. We surveyed and then modeled both seedling occurrence and density as a function of distance to seed sources, competing woody vegetation, and other environmental characteristics. We found that proximity to a planted stand was associated with an increase in the probability of YP seedlings (species more likely to originate from the planted stand) from 0.33 at 35 m from the planted stand to 0.56 directly adjacent to the stand and 0.65 within the stand. However, we found no significant effect of proximity on YP seedling density. This proximity effect suggests that seed availability continues to be a driver of recruitment several decades postwildfire, though other processes may influence the expected density of recruits. Proxies for competitive pressure (shrub volume and shrub cover) were not significant, suggesting that competing vegetation did not have a major influence on recruitment. Though seedling presence and density appeared to be independent of shrub impacts, we did find that shrubs were significantly taller than seedlings. Therefore, we suggest that shrubs may not limit seedling establishment, but they may negatively affect seedlings' ability to grow and serve as a seed source for further recruitment and forest expansion. Altogether, we find that planting may provide a statistically significant but small role in driving recruitment outside of the planted site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High severity fire is far outpacing post-fire reforestation capacity across the American West, highlighting the need to better understand when and where natural regeneration is sufficient to meet short- and long-term reforestation goals. The vast majority of available post-fire data represents regeneration in the first few years following a fire, raising the question of how well recovery trajectories can be predicted from early post-fire snapshots. We utilize a unique dataset from seven wildfires and 78 plots surveyed twice following stand-replacing fire in two California ecoregions, the northern Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains, to ask (1) how are post-fire vegetation and conifer densities changing over time and (2) how well do relatively early post-fire sampling efforts and biophysical factors (availability of seed source, shrub competition, and microclimate) explain longer-term (12–23 year) conifer recovery in California dry forests. Change in conifer seedling density between survey periods was highly variable. Overall, densities of all conifer species during the first decade after fire provided reliable estimates of longer-term conifer recovery in northern California dry forests, though in different ways for different species. Early post-fire seedling density readily explained longer-term densities for less shade-tolerant species, yellow pine (Pinus ponderosa and Pinus jeffreyi) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). In contrast, early seedling density was a poor predictor for shade-tolerant species, predominantly white fir (Abies concolor), with site conditions better explaining longer-term density. In general, the probability of a site experiencing net seedling mortality between surveys was highest in sites with high shrub cover and the probability of net recruitment increased with decreasing heat load, suggesting a continued role of microclimate and competition in forest recovery long after the initial post-fire period. Our results lend support to the use of relatively early post-fire surveys to infer longer-term forest recovery trajectories for forest management planning and can help refine reforestation prioritization tools. • Long-term post-fire conifer seedling densities can be reliably predicted from early post-fire data. • Early post-fire seedling density readily explained longer-term densities for yellow pine and Douglas-fir. • Site conditions are a strong predictor of long-term fir seedling density. • Long-term seedling mortality was more likely in sites with high shrub cover. • Long-term seedling recruitment was more likely in sites with low heat load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Wildfire burned area, fire size, fire severity and the ecological and socio‐economic impacts of fire have been increasing rapidly in California in recent decades. We summarize the record‐breaking 2020 wildfire season in California statistically, evaluate the drivers of high‐severity burning in the 2020 fires and consider implications for fire and resource management. Location: California, USA. Time period: 2020, with consideration of long‐term trends in many variables. Major taxa studied: Humans, vegetation and wildlife. Methods: We statistically summarize the record‐breaking 2020 fire year in California and outline the salient ecological and socio‐economic impacts. Then we fit two statistical models to determine how a suite of weather‐ and fuel‐related variables influenced high‐severity burning in different vegetation types and in different fire events during the 2020 fire season. Results: In 2020, 1.74 million ha burned in California, 2.2 times more than the previous historical record but only average when compared with pre‐Euroamerican conditions. Economic losses exceeded $19 billion, and 33 people were killed directly by fire. Vegetation type and recent fire history had important effects on burning. Variability in high‐severity burning among vegetation types was driven principally by vapour pressure deficit and wind speed; variability among fire events was related principally to time since the last fire (a surrogate for fuel loading). Main conclusions: The 2020 fires were part of an accelerating decades‐long trend of increasing burned area, fire size, fire severity and socio‐ecological costs in California. In fire‐prone forests, the management emphasis on reducing burned area should be replaced by a focus on reducing the severity of burning and restoring key ecosystem functions after fire. There have been positive developments in California vis‐à‐vis collaborative action and increased pace and scale of fuel management and pre‐ and postfire restoration, but the warming climate and other factors are rapidly constraining our options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When wildfires occur at sufficiently low frequencies, chaparral shrubland regenerates without the need for active restoration. However, shrubland with high fire frequency, particularly in conjunction with other stressors, can require active restoration. Here we present a Post‐fire Restoration Prioritization (PReP) tool for chaparral shrublands which identifies priorities for post‐fire restoration based on the regeneration potential of shrubs and accounts for fire history, drought tolerance, and competition from annual grasses. We demonstrate the tool on the Copper (2002) and Powerhouse (2013) fires on the Angeles National Forest and determine that 9% (665 ha) and 14% (1,532 ha) of the fire areas, respectively, have low regeneration capacity, and therefore represent priority areas for restoration. For more recent fires (≤2 years ago), an additional component of the tool integrates erosion risk data to identify locations where active restoration may enhance hillside stabilization. To ground‐truth tool outputs for the Powerhouse Fire, we sampled 57 plots to assess if recovery was indeed impeded in low versus high regeneration capacity classes. Low regeneration plots exhibited significantly higher grass and herbaceous cover, with high abundance of non‐native species. Furthermore, resprouting shrub species contributed proportionally more cover than obligate seeders in low regeneration plots, with fewer individuals regenerating from seed compared to resprouting. These findings underscore the potential of the PReP tool to provide credible spatial guidance for shrubland management, both in California and potentially in other Mediterranean‐type climate regions, as to where active restoration is most likely to ensure long‐term sustainability of chaparral and associated ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme drought and increasing temperatures can decrease the resilience of plant communities to fires. Not only may extremely dry conditions during or after fires lead to higher plant mortality and poorer recruitment, but severe pre‐fire droughts may reduce the seed production and belowground vigor that are essential to post‐fire plant recovery, and may indirectly facilitate invasion. We studied survival, recruitment, and growth of shrubs and herbs in chaparral (shrubland) communities in Northern California after a 2015 fire that immediately followed California's extreme 3‐yr drought. We followed the same protocols used to study similar, adjacent communities after a 1999 fire that did not follow a drought, and we compared the two recovery trajectories. Overall, the 2015 fire was not more severe than the 1999 fire, yet it caused higher mortality and lower growth of resprouting shrubs on fertile (sandstone) soils. In contrast, the 2015 fire did not affect the mortality or growth of resprouting shrubs on infertile (serpentine) soils, the density of shrub seedlings, or the richness or cover of native herbs differently than the 1999 fire. However, the 2015 fire facilitated a massive increase in exotic herbaceous cover, especially on fertile soils, possibly portending the early stages of a type conversion to exotic‐dominated grassland. Our findings indicate that the consequences of climate change on fire‐dependent communities will include effects of pre‐fire as well as post‐fire climate, and that resprouting shrubs are particularly likely to be sensitive to pre‐fire drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High severity fire may promote or reduce plant understory diversity in forests. However, few empirical studies have tested long‐standing theoretical predictions that productivity may help to explain observed variation in post‐fire plant diversity. Support for the influence of productivity on disturbance‐diversity relationships is found predominantly in experimental grasslands, while tests over large areas with natural disturbance and productivity gradients are few and have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we measured the response of post‐fire understory plant diversity to natural gradients of fire severity and productivity in a large‐scale observational study in California's subalpine forests. We found that plant species richness increased with increasing fire severity and that this trend was stronger at high productivity. We used plant traits to investigate whether release from competition might contribute to increasing diversity and found that short‐lived and far‐dispersing species benefited more from high severity fire than their long‐lived and near‐dispersing counterparts. For far‐dispersing species only, the benefit from high severity fire was stronger in high productivity plots where unburned species richness was lowest. Our results support theoretical connections between fire severity, productivity and plant communities that are key to predicting the consequences of increasing fire severity and frequency on diversity in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In temperate forests, elevated frequency of drought related disturbances will likely increase the incidence of interactions between disturbances such as bark beetle epidemics and wildfires. Our understanding of the influence of recent drought and insect‐induced tree mortality on wildfire severity has largely lacked information from forests adapted to frequent fire. A recent unprecedented tree mortality event in California's Sierra Nevada provides an opportunity to examine this disturbance interaction in historically frequent‐fire forests. Using field data collected within areas of recent tree mortality that subsequently burned in wildfire, we examined whether and under what conditions wildfire severity relates to severity of prefire tree mortality in Sierra Nevada mixed‐conifer forests. We collected data on 180 plots within the 2015 Rough Fire and 2016 Cedar Fire footprints (California, USA). Our analyses identified prefire tree mortality as influential on all measures of wildfire severity (basal area killed by fire, RdNBR, and canopy torch) on the Cedar Fire, although it was less influential than fire weather (relative humidity). Prefire tree mortality was influential on two of three fire‐severity measures on the Rough Fire, and was the most important predictor of basal area killed by fire; topographic position was influential on two metrics. On the Cedar Fire, the influence of prefire mortality on basal area killed by fire was greater under milder weather conditions. All measures of fire severity increased as prefire mortality increased up to prefire mortality levels of approximately 30–40%; further increases did not result in greater fire severity. The interacting disturbances shifted a pine‐dominated system (Rough Fire) to a cedar–pine–fir system, while the pre‐disturbance fir–cedar system (Cedar Fire) saw its dominant species unchanged. Managers of historically frequent‐fire forests will benefit from utilizing this information when prioritizing fuels reduction treatments in areas of recent tree mortality, as it is the first empirical study to document a relationship between prefire mortality and subsequent wildfire severity in these systems. This study contributes to a growing body of evidence that the influence of prefire tree mortality on wildfire severity in temperate coniferous forests may depend on other conditions capable of driving extreme wildfire behavior, such as weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in many forest types across the western United States and have resulted in tree mortality across tens of thousands of hectares. Conifer regeneration in these areas is limited because seeds must travel long distances to reach the interior of large burned patches and establishment is jeopardized by increasingly hot and dry conditions. To better inform postfire management in low elevation forests of California, USA, we collected 5‐yr postfire recovery data from 1,234 study plots in 19 wildfires that burned from 2004–2012 and 18 yrs of seed production data from 216 seed fall traps (1999–2017). We used these data in conjunction with spatially extensive climate, topography, forest composition, and burn severity surfaces to construct taxon‐specific, spatially explicit models of conifer regeneration that incorporate climate conditions and seed availability during postfire recovery windows. We found that after accounting for other predictors both postfire and historical precipitation were strong predictors of regeneration, suggesting that both direct effects of postfire moisture conditions and biological inertia from historical climate may play a role in regeneration. Alternatively, postfire regeneration may simply be driven by postfire climate and apparent relationships with historical climate could be spurious. The estimated sensitivity of regeneration to postfire seed availability was strongest in firs and all conifers combined and weaker in pines. Seed production exhibited high temporal variability with seed production varying by over two orders of magnitude among years. Our models indicate that during droughts postfire conifer regeneration declines most substantially in low‐to‐moderate elevation forests. These findings enhance our mechanistic understanding of forecasted and historically documented shifts in the distribution of trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Fire Ecology is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As climate changes, locally adapted tree populations may become maladapted to the sites in which they presently occur. When natural adaptive processes are insufficient for populations to keep pace with changing climate, human-assisted relocation of genotypes (assisted gene flow) may be a useful tool for maintaining forest resilience. While existing empirical evidence provides insight into the potential outcomes and consequences of assisted gene flow, its applicability to large-scale plantings needs to be evaluated. We conducted a test of assisted gene flow in the context of operational postfire restoration plantings in three U.S. Department of Agriculture National Forests in California. Our experimental restoration plantings included seedling provenances representing both the local planting site and lower-elevation provenances that may be adapted to hotter and drier conditions. For the duration of the experiment, the planting sites experienced anomalously hot, dry conditions, offering a window into the potential outcomes of assisted gene flow in a future climate characterized by warmer temperatures and more frequent drought. In most cases, there was no significant difference in seedling growth or survival among provenances. However, in a few cases, lower-elevation provenances performed better than local provenances, suggesting a potential benefit of assisted gene flow as a management response to climate change. Our analyses accounted for spatial variation in shrub cover and detected a consistent and substantial negative association between shrub cover and seedling growth. In addition, our study revealed that the use of operational seed collections that are not geographically precise (and therefore also not climatically precise) can complicate selection of appropriate provenances and lead to unpredictable outcomes. Numerous other risks and uncertainties—including the fact that tree populations are often adapted to local site factors other than climate and that long-term outcomes may differ from short-term observations—complicate evaluations of the potential utility of assisted gene flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The persistence and distribution of species under changing climates can be affected by both direct effects of the environment and indirect effects via biotic interactions. However, the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects on recruitment stages is poorly understood. We conducted a manipulative experiment to test the multiway interaction of direct and competition-mediated effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics. Following stand-replacing fire in California mixed-conifer forest, we seeded two conifer species, Pinus ponderosa and Abies concolor, in two consecutive years, one relatively normal and the other with an unusually wet and snowy winter followed by a hot summer. We additionally manipulated snow amount and competitive environment for both years. We found the effects of the snowpack treatment were contingent upon other abiotic factors (year of seeding) and biotic factors (shrub competition). Under ambient snowpack, shrubs reduced recruitment of P. ponderosa seedlings, but this negative effect disappeared with reduced snowpack. Additionally, the effects of shrubs on seedlings differed between cohorts and by life stage. In a warmer future, decreased snowpack may increase seedling emergence, but hotter and drier summers will decrease seedling survival; the effects of shrubs on conifers may become less negative as temperatures increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Litter-free clearings around Jeffrey pine trees can reduce fire-caused tree damage. • We used field studies to examine factors that may create and maintain clearings. • We found that a combination of factors explain clearing formation and maintenance. • Ants move needles to facilitate clearing maintenance around trees where they nest. • Future studies will focus on characterizing the nature of the ant-tree relationship. Abstract In Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi) forests, which once supported a frequent, mostly low severity fire regime, fire suppression has led to notable changes in forest structure and fuel loads. In parts of California, prescribed fire has been used to decrease fuel loads and reduce the risk of high intensity fire in these forests. Previous work has shown that circular litter-free clearings form around Jeffrey pine trees following prescribed burns and that they can reduce tree damage and potentially increase the chance of survival in a subsequent wildfire. In this study we aim to determine the factors responsible for maintaining clearings around trees after a fire occurs. Using a set of field experiments and observational studies, we show that a combination of natural processes, including reduced litter deposition near trees, and the movement of needles away from trees by ants (Formica sibylla) and wind, reduce the amount of litter near trees and likely contribute to the long-term maintenance of clearings. Stem flow resulting from rare heavy rain events also appears to play a role in clearing maintenance. All of the abiotic factors investigated interact with the physical structure of the tree to remove pine needles from the bases of trees, but ants move needles independently to facilitate clearing maintenance and indirectly enhance tree fitness when fires occur. Given how generally common F. sibylla is in Jeffrey pine habitat and the relative stability of the abiotic processes that also contribute to maintaining clearings (wind, precipitation, and needle fall), we may expect to see clearings form in other Jeffrey pine forests after prescribed fires are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Massive tree mortality has occurred rapidly in frequent-fire-adapted forests of the Sierra Nevada, California. This mortality is a product of acute drought compounded by the long-established removal of a key ecosystem process: frequent, low- to moderate-intensity fire. The recent tree mortality has many implications for the future of these forests and the ecological goods and services they provide to society. Future wildfire hazard following this mortality can be generally characterized by decreased crown fire potential and increased surface fire intensity in the short to intermediate term. The scale of present tree mortality is so large that greater potential for "mass fire" exists in the coming decades, driven by the amount and continuity of dry, combustible, large woody material that could produce large, severe fires. For long-term adaptation to climate change, we highlight the importance of moving beyond triage of dead and dying trees to making "green" (live) forests more resilient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large, high severity fires are becoming more prevalent in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forests, largely due to heavy fuel loading and forest densification caused by past and current management practices. In post-fire areas distant from seed trees, conifers are often planted to re-establish a forest and to prevent a potential type-conversion to shrub fields. Typical reforestation efforts promote conifer survival and growth by reducing competing shrub cover, yet the effects of these practices on plant species richness and composition are not well understood. We compared the effects of treatment and time since fire on (1) native and exotic plant species richness, (2) plant community composition, and (3) stand structure. Plots were installed throughout three different aged but proximate fires located in the canyon of the South Fork of the American River in California, 10, 22, and 41 years after fire. All three fires included large patches of stand-replacing fire that had been reforested with conifers as well as unplanted areas. Native plant species richness was significantly higher in planted areas where shrub cover was lower and planted trees successfully established. Native species richness decreased as time since fire increased, but the relationship between shrub control and richness persisted. Exotic species richness was higher on treated sites in the more recent fires, while the opposite was true in the oldest fire. As time since fire increased, understory species composition shifted from a community dominated by annuals and perennials to one dominated by shrubs and shade-tolerant trees. Shrub cover and July soil moisture were the top two factors influencing understory richness levels. Natural regeneration was low in the youngest fire and high in the oldest fire but highly heterogeneous in all three fires. Our study suggests that while retaining some shrub cover for post-fire habitat may be desirable, some level of shrub reduction does favor native plant richness and overall herbaceous cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Fire Ecology is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Land managers implement forest fuel reduction treatments, including prescribed fire, mastication, and hand- and mechanical thinning, to modify wildfire behavior. Fuel treatments decrease tree density, increase mean canopy base height and remove surface fuels, and have been shown to reduce fire severity in yellow pine and mixed-conifer forests, even under relatively severe weather conditions. However, less is known about the impacts of fuel treatments on other facets of forest ecology. Synthesizing evidence from the scientific literature regarding their effects on forest structure, carbon, vegetation, soils, wildlife and forest pests, we found a developing consensus that fuel treatments, particularly those that include a prescribed fire component, may have neutral to positive effects on a number of ecological processes in frequent-fire coniferous forests and may increase forest resilience to future disturbance and stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim Many climate-linked vegetation models predict major contraction of subalpine forests within the next 100 years, which would require a relatively rapid replacement of high-elevation species by lower-elevation species over large portions of subalpine forest. We tested this prediction by comparing empirical data from a historic data set with data collected from re-sampled sites from 2007-09. Location Central Sierra Nevada, CA, USA, 2300-3400 m elevation. Methods We re-sampled 139 undisturbed historical vegetation plots across 5500 km2 originally sampled from 1929-34 in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada, and compared historical with current forest structure and composition. We compared historic and modern climatic conditions using two high-elevation climate stations nearby. Results Subalpine forests experienced a net increase in tree stem density of 30.4%, including a 63.3% increase in small trees. Six of eight tree species showed statistically significant increases in small tree density, including species with distributions at both the upper and lower boundaries of subalpine. Increases in small tree density were partly offset by a 20% decrease in large trees. These shifts were significant throughout the landscape of our study area. Modern stand composition was indistinguishable from historical composition. Daily minimum temperature (+ 1.2°C) and precipitation (+ 15-48%) both increased during the same period. Main conclusions Warming temperatures plus steady to increasing precipitation have led to less stressful conditions for recruitment and survival of small trees, and are probably contributing to increased mortality of large trees. Tree abundance and composition in the subalpine has not changed in the direction predicted by vegetation models linked to future climate scenarios. Our results underline the fundamental role that moisture balance plays in structuring mediterranean-zone montane forests. Future shifts in vegetation composition and structure from these regions are likely to depend on interactions between water balance and disturbance factors like fire, insects and disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary 1. Stream and riparian ecosystems in arid montane areas, like the interior western United States, are often just narrow mesic strands, but support diverse and productive habitats. Meadows along many such streams have long been used for rangeland grazing, and, while impacts to riparian areas are relatively well known, the effect of livestock grazing on aquatic life in streams has received less attention. 2. Attempts to link grazing impacts to disturbance have been hindered by the lack of spatial and temporal replication. In this study, we compared channel features and benthic macroinvertebrate communities (i) between 16 stream reaches on two grazed allotments and between 22 reaches on two allotments where livestock had been completely removed for 4 years, (ii) before and after the 4-year grazing respite at a subset of eight sites and (iii) inside and outside of small-scale fenced grazing exclosures (eight pairings; 10+ year exclosures) in the meadows of the Golden Trout Wilderness, California (U.S.A.). 3. We evaluated grazing disturbance at the reach scale in terms of the effects of livestock trampling on per cent bank erosion and found that macroinvertebrate richness metrics were negatively correlated with bank erosion, while the percentage of tolerant taxa increased. 4. All macroinvertebrate richness metrics were significantly lower in grazed areas. Bank angle, temperature, fine sediment cover and erosion were higher in grazed areas, while riparian cover was lower. Regression models identified riparian cover, in-stream substratum, bank conditions and bankfull width-to-depth ratios as the most important for explaining variability in macroinvertebrate richness metrics. 5. Small-scale grazing exclosures showed no improvements for in-stream communities and only moderate positive effects on riparian vegetation. In contrast, metrics of macroinvertebrate richness increased significantly after a 4-year period of no grazing. 6. The success of grazing removal reported here suggests that short-term removal of livestock at the larger, allotment meadow spatial scale is more effective than long-term, but small-scale, local riparian area fencing, and yields promising results in achieving stream channel, riparian and aquatic biological recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

California fire regimes have been altered from those that occurred prior to Euro-American settlement, and are predicted to continue to change as global climates warm. Inclusion of fire as a landscape-level process is considered essential to successful ecological restoration in many ecosystems, and presettlement fire regimes provide foundational information for restoration or "realignment" of ecosystems as climate change and land use changes progress. The objective of our study was to provide an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of presettlement fire frequency estimates for California ecosystems dominated by woody plants, and to supply the basis for fire return interval departure (FRID) mapping and analysis in California. Using the LANDFIRE Biophysical Settings (BpS) vegetation-fire regime types as a framework, we used literature review and the outcomes of regional expert workshops to develop twenty-eight presettlement fire regime (PFR) groups based on similarity of their relationships with fire. We then conducted an exhaustive review of the published and unpublished literature pertaining to fire return intervals (FRIs) observed prior to significant Euro-American settlement in the twenty-eight PFRs, and summarized the values to provide a single estimate of the mean, median, mean minimum, and mean maximum FRI for each PFR. Much variability was evident among PFRs, with mean FRIs ranging from 11 yr to 610 yr, and median FRIs ranging from 7 yr to 610 yr; mean minimum FRIs ranged from 5 yr to 190 yr, and mean maximum FRIs ranged from 40 yr to 1440 yr. There was also high variability within many PFRs, and differences between minimum and maximum FRIs ranged from 32 yr to 1324 yr. Generally, median FRIs were lowest for productive drier forests such as yellow pine, dry and moist mixed conifer, and oak woodland (7 yr, 9 yr, 12 yr, and 12 yr, respectively). Median FRIs were highest for less productive woodlands such as pinyon-juniper (94 yr), high elevation types such as subalpine forest (132 yr), very dry types such as desert mixed shrub (610 yr), and productive moist forests such as spruce-hemlock (275 yr mean FRI). Our summary of California's presettlement fire regimes should be a useful reference for scientists and resource managers, whether they are seeking a general estimate of the central tendency and variability of FRIs in a broadly defined vegetation type, background information for a planned restoration project or a mechanistic model of vegetation-fire interactions, or a list of literature pertaining to a specific vegetation type or geographic location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a field study to determine the relative contributions of aspen ( Populus tremuloides), meadow, and conifer communities to local and landscape-level plant species diversity in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range, northeastern California, USA. We surveyed plant assemblages at 30 sites that included adjacent aspen, conifer, and meadow communities across a 10,000-km region. We statistically investigated patterns in local and landscape-scale plant diversity within and among the three vegetation types. Summing across sites, aspen stands supported more plant species overall and more unique plant species than either meadow or conifer communities. Local richness and diversity did not differ between aspen and meadow plots; conifer forest plots were significantly lower in both measures. Heterogeneity in species composition was higher for aspen forest than for meadows or conifer forest, both within sites and between sites. Plant communities in aspen stands shared less than 25% of their species with adjacent vegetation in conifer and meadow plots. Within aspen forest, we found a negative relationship between total canopy cover and plant diversity. Our results strongly support the idea that plant communities of aspen stands are compositionally distinct from adjacent meadows and conifer forest, and that aspen forests are a major contributor to plant species diversity in the study region. Current patterns of aspen stand succession to conifer forest on many sites in the semiarid western US are likely to reduce local and landscape-level plant species diversity, and may also have negative effects on other ecosystem functions and services provided by aspen forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution model (SDM) projections under future climate scenarios are increasingly being used to inform resource management and conservation strategies. A critical assumption for projecting climate change responses is that SDMs are transferable through time, an assumption that is largely untested because investigators often lack temporally independent data for assessing transferability. Further, understanding how the ecology of species influences temporal transferability is critical yet almost wholly lacking. This raises two questions. (1) Are SDM projections transferable in time? (2) Does temporal transferability relate to species ecological traits? To address these questions we developed SDMs for 133 vascular plant species using data from the mountain ranges of California (USA) from two time periods: the 1930s and the present day. We forecast historical models over 75 years of measured climate change and assessed their projections against current distributions. Similarly, we hindcast contemporary models and compared their projections to historical data. We quantified transferability and related it to species ecological traits including physiognomy, endemism, dispersal capacity, fire adaptation, and commonness. We found that non-endemic species with greater dispersal capacity, intermediate levels of prevalence, and little fire adaptation had higher transferability than endemic species with limited dispersal capacity that rely on fire for reproduction. We demonstrate that variability in model performance was driven principally by differences among species as compared to model algorithms or time period of model calibration. Further, our results suggest that the traits correlated with prediction accuracy in a single time period may not be related to transferability between time periods. Our findings provide a priori guidance for the suitability of SDM as an approach for forecasting climate change responses for certain taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Angora Fire burned 1243ha of Jeffrey pine and mixed conifer forest in the Lake Tahoe Basin between June 24 and July 2, 2007. The Angora Fire burned at unusually high severity due to heavy fuels; strong winds; warm, dry weather; and unseasonably low fuel moistures. The fire destroyed 254 homes, and final loss and suppression cost estimates of $160,000,000 make the Angora Fire one of the ten costliest wildfires in US history. The Angora Fire burned into 194ha of fuel treatments intended to modify fire behavior and protect private and public assets in the Angora Creek watershed. The fire thus provides a unique opportunity to quantitatively assess the effects of fuel treatments on wildfire severity in an area of wildland–urban interface. We measured fire effects on vegetation in treated and adjacent untreated areas within the Angora Fire perimeter, immediately after and one year after the fire. Our measures of fire severity included tree mortality; height of bole char, crown scorch, and crown torch; and percent crown scorch and torch. Unlike most studies of fuel treatment effectiveness, our study design included replication and implicitly controlled for variation in topography and weather. Our results show that fuel treatments generally performed as designed and substantially changed fire behavior and subsequent fire effects to forest vegetation. Exceptions include two treatment units where slope steepness led to lower levels of fuels removal due to local standards for erosion prevention. Hand-piled fuels in one of these two units had also not yet been burned. Excepting these units, bole char height and fire effects to the forest canopy (measured by crown scorching and torching) were significantly lower, and tree survival significantly higher, within sampled treatments than outside them. In most cases, crown fire behavior changed to surface fire within 50m of encountering a fuel treatment. The Angora Fire underlines the important role that properly implemented fuel treatments can play in protecting assets, reducing fire severity and increasing forest resilience. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: The objective of this study was to map vegetation composition across a 24 000 ha watershed. Location: The study was conducted on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California, USA. Methods: Automated image segmentation was used to delineate image objects representing vegetation patches of similar physiognomy and structure. Image objects were classified using a decision tree and data sources extracted from individual species distribution models, Landsat spectral data, and life form cover estimates derived from aerial image-based texture variables. Results: A total of 12 plant communities were mapped with an overall accuracy of 75% and a χ-value of 0.69. Species distribution model inputs improved map accuracy by approximately 15% over maps derived solely from image data. Automated mapping of existing vegetation distributions, based solely on predictive distribution model results, proved to be more accurate than mapping based on Landsat data, and equivalent in accuracy to mapping based on all image data sources. Conclusions: Results highlight the importance of terrain, edaphic, and bioclimatic variables when mapping vegetation communities in complex terrain. Mapping errors stemmed from the lack of spectral discernability between vegetation classes, and the inability to account for the confounding effects of land use history and disturbance within a static distribution modeling framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We comment on a recent Ecosystem paper by Odion and Hanson (Ecosystems 9:1177–1189, ), in which the authors claim that high severity fire is rare in the Sierra Nevada under current conditions. Odion and Hanson’s results are predicated on BAER soil burn severity maps, which are based primarily on fire effects to soil, not vegetation. Odion and Hanson, and we fear others as well, are misinformed as to the nature of the BAER severity mapping process, and proper applications of BAER soil burn severity maps. By comparing the BAER soil burn severity maps to a true vegetation burn severity measure (RdNBR) calibrated by field data, we show that the area in the high soil burn severity class for the three fires analyzed by Odion and Hanson is substantially less than the area of stand-replacing fire, and that BAER maps—especially hand-derived maps such as those from two of the three fires—also greatly underestimate the heterogeneity in vegetation burn severity on burned landscapes. We also show that, contrary to Odion and Hanson’s claims, Fire Return Interval Departure (FRID) is strongly correlated with fire severity in conifer stands within the perimeter of the McNally Fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At small scales, areas with high native diversity are often resistant to invasion, while at large scales, areas with more native species harbor more exotic species, suggesting that different processes control the relationship between native and exotic species diversity at different spatial scales. Although the small-scale negative relationship between native and exotic diversity has a satisfactory explanation, we lack a mechanistic explanation for the change in relationship to positive at large scales. We investigated the native—exotic diversity relationship at three scales (range: 1-4000 km2) in California serpentine, a system with a wide range in the productivity of sites from harsh to lush. Native and exotic diversity were positively correlated at all three scales; it is rarer to detect a positive relationship at the small scales within which interactions between individuals occur. However, although positively correlated on average, the small-scale relationship between native and exotic diversity was positive at low-productivity sites and negative at high-productivity sites. Thus, the change in the relationship between native and exotic diversity does not depend on spatial scale per se, but occurs whenever environmental conditions change to promote species coexistence rather than competitive exclusion. This occurred within a single spatial scale when the environment shifted from being locally unproductive to productive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serpentine vegetation in California ranges from forest to shrubland and grassland, harbors many rare and endemic species, and is only moderately altered by invasive exotic species at the present time. To better understand the factors regulating the distribution of common/representative species, endemic/rare species, and the threat of exotics in this important flora, we analyzed broad-scale community patterns and environmental conditions in a geographically stratified set of samples from across the state. We considered three major classes of environmental influences: climate (especially precipitation), soils (especially the Mg2+/Ca2+ ratio), and the indirect influences of climate on soils. We used ordination to identify the major axes of variation in common species abundances, structural equation models to analyze the relationship of community axes and endemic and exotic species richness to the environment, and group analysis techniques to identify consistent groupings of species and characterize their properties. We found that community variation could be explained by a two-axis ordination. One axis ranged from conifer forest to grassland and was strongly related to precipitation. The second axis ranged from chaparral to grassland and had little relationship to current environmental conditions, suggesting a possible role for successional history. Precipitation and elevation were respectively the largest influences on endemic and exotic richness, followed by Mg2+/Ca2+. The results also support the idea that long-term precipitation patterns have altered the Mg2+/Ca2+ ratio via selective leaching, resulting in indirect influences on endemics (positive) and exotics (negative) but not affecting the abundances of common species. We discuss implications of these findings for the conservation of the California serpentine flora. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exotic species have been observed to be more prevalent i! sites where the richness of native species is highest, possibly reflecting variation among sites in resources, propagule supply, heterogeneity, or disturbance. However, such a pattern leaves unclear whether natives at species-rich sites are subject to especially severe impacts from exotics as a result. We considered this question using path models in which relationships between exotic cover and native richness were evaluated in the presence of correlated environmental factors. At. 109 sites on serpentine soils across California, USA, exotic cover was positively correlated with total native herbaceous richness and was negatively correlated with the richness of both serpentine-endemic and rare native herbs. However, in path models that accounted for the influences of soil chemistry, disturbance, overstory cover, and regional rainfall and elevation, we found no indication that exotic cover reduced any component of native herb richness. Rather, our results indicated similarities and differences in the conditions favoring exotic, native, endemic, and rare species. Our results suggest that, in spite of some localized impacts, exotic species are not exerting a detectable overall effect on the community richness of the unique native flora of Californian serpentine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We asked how the richness of the specialized (endemic) flora of serpentine rock outcrops in California varies at both the regional and local scales. Our study had two goals: first, to test whether endemic richness is affected by spatial habitat structure (e.g., regional serpentine area, local serpentine outcrop area, regional and local measures of outcrop isolation), and second, to conduct this test in the context of a broader assessment of environmental influences (e.g., climate, soils, vegetation, disturbance) and historical influences (e.g., geologic age, geographic province) on local and regional species richness. We measured endemic and total richness and environmental variables in 109 serpentine sites (1000-m2 paired plots) in 78 serpentine-containing regions of the state. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to simultaneously relate regional richness to regional-scale predictors, and local richness to both local-scale and regional-scale predictors. Our model for serpentine endemics explained 66% of the variation in local endemic richness based on local environment (vegetation, soils, rock cover) and on regional endemic richness. It explained 73% of the variation in regional endemic richness based on regional environment (climate and productivity), historical factors (geologic age and geographic province), and spatial structure (regional total area of serpentine, the only significant spatial variable in our analysis). We did not find a strong influence of spatial structure on species richness. However, we were able to distinguish local vs. regional influences on species richness to a novel extent, despite the existence of correlations between local and regional conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 The relationship of productivity to species diversity is usually positive at regional scales, but is often neutral, unimodal or negative at local spatial scales. Recent studies have pointed out that beta diversity, or among-locality and within-region variation in species composition, must therefore tend to increase with productivity. 2 We tested for a positive relationship of productivity to beta diversity in herbaceous plants at 105 widely distributed sites on serpentine soil in California. We also asked whether any such pattern could be explained, as previously proposed, by increased environmental heterogeneity at higher levels of productivity. 3 We found that one measure of beta diversity (the species dissimilarity between paired 500 m2 plots on adjacent north and south slopes) was positively related to productivity (as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index, a remotely sensed index). However, this effect was not strong enough to transform the neutral relationship of productivity with alpha (1 m2) diversity to a positive relationship of productivity with gamma (1000 m2) diversity. 4 The positive effect of productivity on beta diversity was not related to increasing heterogeneity in coarse measures of vegetation structure (percentage cover of shade, litter, rocks, moss, bare soil, animal disturbance). We speculate that the effect may instead have a ‘top-down’ explanation: higher beta diversity may be caused by the positive influence of productivity on the size of the regional species pool. 5 Our study illustrates the principle of a ‘scale transition’, in which an ecological pattern is qualitatively different at different spatial scales. Careful attention to scale-dependence may help narrow the search for mechanisms for such long-studied ecological puzzles as the latitudinal diversity gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the study on the comparison of native and exotic species composition of ungrazed roadside verges with the grazed interiors of grasslands of the northern coast range in California. It states that ungrazed verges on nonserpentine soils had higher proportion of exotic species compared to grazed interiors. It mentions that grazed interiors have higher total species diversity.

Rising temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts are driving increases in tree mortality in forests around the globe. However, in many cases, the likely trajectories of forest recovery following drought‐related mortality are poorly understood. In many fire‐suppressed western U.S. forests, management is applied to reverse densification and restore natural forest structure and species composition, but it is unclear how such management affects post‐mortality recovery. We addressed these uncertainties by examining forest stands that experienced mortality during the severe drought of 2012–2016 in California, USA. We surveyed post‐drought vegetation along a gradient of overstory mortality severity in paired treated (mechanically thinned or prescribed‐burned) and untreated areas in the Sierra Nevada. Treatment substantially reduced tree density, particularly in smaller tree size classes, and these effects persisted through severe drought‐related overstory mortality. However, even in treated areas with severe mortality (>67% basal area mortality), the combined density of residual (surviving) trees (mean 44 trees/ha) and saplings (mean 189 saplings/ha) frequently (86% of plots) fell within or exceeded the natural range of variation (NRV) of tree density, suggesting little need for reforestation intervention to increase density. Residual tree densities in untreated high‐mortality plots were significantly higher (mean 192 trees/ha and 506 saplings/ha), and 96% of these plots met or exceeded the NRV. Treatment disproportionately removed shade‐tolerant conifer species, while mortality in the drought event was concentrated in pines (Pinus ponderosa and P. lambertiana); as a consequence, the residual trees, saplings, and seedlings in treated areas, particularly those that had experienced moderate or high drought‐related mortality, were more heavily dominated by broadleaf ("hardwood") trees (particularly Quercus kelloggii and Q. chrysolepis). In contrast, residual trees and regeneration in untreated stands were heavily dominated by shade‐tolerant conifer species (Abies concolor and Calocedrus decurrens), suggesting a need for future treatment. Because increased dominance of hardwoods brings benefits for plant and animal diversity and stand resilience, the ecological advantages of mechanical thinning and prescribed fire treatments may, depending on the management perspective, extend even to stands that ultimately experience high drought‐related mortality following treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbance such as wildfire may create opportunities for plant communities to reorganize in response to climate change. The interaction between climate change and disturbance may be particularly important in forests, where many of the foundational plant species (trees) are long‐lived and where poor initial tree establishment can result in conversion to shrub‐ or graminoid‐dominated systems. The response of post‐disturbance vegetation establishment to post‐disturbance weather conditions, particularly to extreme weather, could therefore provide useful information about how forest communities will respond to climate change. We examined the effect of post‐fire weather conditions on post‐fire tree, shrub, and graminoid recruitment in fire‐adapted forests in northern California, USA, by surveying regenerating vegetation in severely burned areas 4–5 yr after 14 different wildfires that burned between 2004 and 2012. This time period (2004–2016) encompassed a wide range of post‐fire weather conditions, including a period of extreme drought. For the most common tree species, we observed little evidence of disturbance‐mediated community reorganization or range shifts but instead either (1) low sensitivity of recruitment to post‐fire weather or (2) weak but widespread decreases in recruitment under unusually dry post‐fire conditions, depending on the species. The occurrence of a single strong drought year following fire was more important than a series of moderately dry years in explaining tree recruitment declines. Overall, however, post‐fire tree recruitment patterns were explained more strongly by long‐term climate and topography and local adult tree species abundance than by post‐fire weather conditions. This observation suggests that surviving adult trees can contribute to a "biological inertia" that restricts the extent to which tree community composition will track changes in climate through post‐disturbance recruitment. In contrast to our observations in trees, we observed substantial increases in shrub and graminoid establishment under post‐fire drought, suggesting that shifts in dominance between functional groups may become more likely in a future with more frequent and intense drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme drought stress and associated bark beetle population growth contributed to an extensive tree mortality event in California, USA, resulting in more than 129 million trees dying between 2012 and 2016. Although drought is an important driver of this mortality event, past and ongoing fire suppression and the consequent densification of forests may have contributed. In some areas, land management agencies have worked to reduce stand density through mechanical treatments and prescribed fire to restore forests to less dense, more open conditions that are presumably more resilient to disturbance and changing climate. Here, we evaluate if stand structural conditions associated with treated (e.g., thinned and prescribed burned) forests in the Sierra Nevada of California conferred more resistance to the bark beetle epidemic and drought event of 2012-2016. We found that, compared to untreated units, treated units had lower stand densities, larger average tree diameters, and greater dominance of pines (Pinus), the historically dominant trees. For all tree species studied, mortality was substantially greater in climatically drier areas (i.e., lower elevations and latitudes). Both pine species studied (ponderosa pine [Pinus ponderosa] and sugar pine [Pinus lambertiana]) had greater mortality in areas where their diameters were larger, suggesting a size preference for their insect mortality agents. For ponderosa pine, the tree species experiencing greatest mortality, individual-tree mortality probability (for a given tree diameter) was significantly lower in treated stands. Ponderosa pine mortality was also positively related to density of medium- to large-sized conspecific trees, especially in areas with lower precipitation, suggesting that abundance of nearby host trees for insect mortality agents was an important determinant of pine mortality. Mortality of incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens) and white fir (Abies concolor) was positively associated with basal area, suggesting sensitivity to competition during drought, but overall mortality was lower, likely because the most prevalent and effective mortality agents (the bark beetles Dendroctonus brevicomis and D. ponderosae) are associated specifically with pine species within our study region. Our findings suggest that forest thinning treatments are effective in reducing drought-related tree mortality in forests, and they underscore the important interaction between water and forest density in mediating bark beetle-caused mortality., (Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Many global ecosystems have undergone shifts in fire regimes in recent decades, such as changes in fire size, frequency, and/or severity. Recent research shows that increases in fire size, frequency, and severity can lead to long-persisting deforestation, but the consequences of shifting fire regimes for biodiversity of other vegetative organisms (such as understory plants, fungi, and lichens) remain poorly understood. Understanding lichen responses to wildfire is particularly important because lichens play crucial roles in nutrient cycling and supporting wildlife in many ecosystems. Lichen responses to fire have been little studied, and most previous research has been limited to small geographic areas (e.g. studies of a single fire), making it difficult to establish generalizable patterns. To investigate long-term effects of fire severity on lichen communities, we sampled epiphytic lichen communities in 104 study plots across California's greater Sierra Nevada region in areas that burned in five wildfires, ranging from 4 to 16 years prior to sampling. The conifer forest ecosystems we studied have undergone a notable increase in fire severity in recent decades, and we sample across the full gradient of fire severity to infer how shifting fire regimes may influence landscape-level biodiversity. We find that low-severity fire has little to no effect on lichen communities. Areas that burned at moderate and high severities, however, have significantly and progressively lower lichen richness and abundance. Importantly, we observe very little postfire lichen recolonization on burned substrates even more than 15 years after fire. Our multivariate model suggests that the hotter, drier microclimates that occur after fire removes forest canopies may prevent lichen reestablishment, meaning that lichens are not likely to recolonize until mature trees regenerate. These findings suggest that altered fire regimes may cause broad and long-persisting landscape-scale biodiversity losses that could ultimately impact multiple trophic levels., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Shifting disturbance regimes can have cascading effects on many ecosystems processes. This is particularly true when the scale of the disturbance no longer matches the regeneration strategy of the dominant vegetation. In the yellow pine and mixed conifer forests of California, over a century of fire exclusion and the warming climate are increasing the incidence and extent of stand-replacing wildfire; such changes in severity patterns are altering regeneration dynamics by dramatically increasing the distance from live tree seed sources. This has raised concerns about limitations to natural reforestation and the potential for conversion to non-forested vegetation types, which in turn has implications for shifts in many ecological processes and ecosystem services. We used a California region-wide data set with 1,848 plots across 24 wildfires in yellow pine and mixed conifer forests to build a spatially explicit habitat suitability model for forecasting postfire forest regeneration. To model the effect of seed availability, the critical initial biological filter for regeneration, we used a novel approach to predicting spatial patterns of seed availability by estimating annual seed production from existing basal area and burn severity maps. The probability of observing any conifer seedling in a 60-m 2 area (the field plot scale) was highly dependent on 30-yr average annual precipitation, burn severity, and seed availability. We then used this model to predict regeneration probabilities across the entire extent of a "new" fire (the 2014 King Fire), which highlights the spatial variability inherent in postfire regeneration patterns. Such forecasts of postfire regeneration patterns are of importance to land managers and conservationists interested in maintaining forest cover on the landscape. Our tool can also help anticipate shifts in ecosystem properties, supporting researchers interested in investigating questions surrounding alternative stable states, and the interaction of altered disturbance regimes and the changing climate., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Historical forest conditions are often used to inform contemporary management goals because historical forests are considered to be resilient to ecological disturbances. The General Land Office (GLO) surveys of the late 19th and early 20th centuries provide regionally quasi-contiguous data sets of historical forests across much of the Western United States. Multiple methods exist for estimating tree density from point-based sampling such as the GLO surveys, including distance-based and area-based approaches. Area-based approaches have been applied in California mixed-conifer forests but their estimates have not been validated. To assess the accuracy and precision of plotless density estimators with potential for application to GLO data in this region, we imposed a GLO sampling scheme on six mapped forest stands of known densities (159-784 trees/ha) in the Sierra Nevada in California, USA, and Baja California Norte, Mexico. We compared three distance-based plotless density estimators (Cottam, Pollard, and Morisita) as well as two Voronoi area (VA) estimators, the Delincé and mean harmonic Voronoi density (MHVD), to the true densities. We simulated sampling schemes of increasing intensity to assess sampling error. The relative error (RE) of density estimates for the GLO sampling scheme ranged from 0.36 to 4.78. The least biased estimate of tree density in every stand was obtained with the Morisita estimator and the most biased was obtained with the MHVD estimator. The MHVD estimates of tree density were 1.2-3.8 times larger than the true densities and performed best in stands subject to fire exclusion for 100 yr. The Delincé approach obtained accurate estimates of density, implying that the Voronoi approach is theoretically sound but that its application in the MHVD was flawed. The misapplication was attributed to two causes: (1) the use of a crown scaling factor that does not correct for the number of trees sampled and (2) the persistent underestimate of the true VA due to a weak relationship between tree size and VA. The magnitude of differences between true densities and MHVD estimates suggest caution in using results based on the MHVD to inform management and restoration practices in the conifer forests of the American West., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)