Search

A proposed project will take water from an aquifer in the California desert to the coast. Lacking final approvals more than 30 years after it started, the project remains a plan despite sizeable opposition. What is its secret? In this paper, I examine the imaginaries of the underground aquifer underneath the lands of Cadiz Inc, the project proponent. While local theories insist the company is at the centre of a Chinatown conspiracy, I argue that the company stays alive through regulatory alchemy, a term that reveals the magic at the heart of scientific and regulatory approval processes. I examine narratives of the aquifer in environmental compliance and financial reporting in order to reveal how regulatory processes become the conditions of profit‐making, building on debates in critical legal geography and political ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate observation of hillslope groundwater storage and instantaneous recharge remains difficult due to limited monitoring and the complexity of mountainous landscapes. We introduce a novel storage‐discharge method to estimate hillslope recharge and the recharge ratio—the fraction of precipitation that recharges groundwater. The method, which relies on streamflow data, is corroborated by independent measurements of water storage dynamics inside the Rivendell experimental hillslope at the Eel River Critical Zone Observatory, California, USA. We find that along‐hillslope patterns in bedrock weathering and plant‐driven storage dynamics govern the seasonal evolution of recharge ratios. Thinner weathering profiles and smaller root‐zone storage deficits near‐channel are replenished before larger ridge‐top deficits. Consequently, precipitation progressively activates groundwater from channel to divide, with an attendant increase in recharge ratios throughout the wet season. Our novel approach and process observations offer valuable insights into controls on groundwater recharge, enhancing our understanding of a critical flux in the hydrologic cycle. Plain Language Summary: Groundwater in hilly areas is an important source of water. The amount of rainfall that replenishes groundwater storage is known as groundwater recharge. Because groundwater recharge is challenging to measure directly, we applied a technique that makes it possible to use a more readily observable variable—streamflow, or the water flow in rivers and streams—to calculate how much water is stored in the hillslope as groundwater. This made it possible to use streamflow to estimate how much rainfall becomes groundwater recharge. By understanding the structure of the ground and how moisture is distributed, we were able to determine how the amount of recharge changes over the wet season. Our work improves understanding of how rainfall and plant water use affect groundwater recharge, which is important for managing water resources in mountain landscapes. Key Points: Increases in hillslope groundwater storage can be quantified from storage‐discharge relationsField measurements of groundwater and vadose zone (VZ) storage corroborate seasonality in recharge ratios (recharge per precipitation input)Recharge ratio increases with decreasing plant‐driven VZ (soil and rock) storage deficits, reflecting spatial variations in storage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological cycle is strongly influenced by the accumulation and melting of seasonal snow. For this reason, mountains are often claimed to be the "water towers" of the world. In this context, a key variable is the snow water equivalent (SWE). However, the complex processes of snow accumulation, redistribution, and ablation make its quantification and prediction very challenging. In this work, we explore the use of multi-source data to reconstruct SWE at a high spatial resolution (HR) of 25 m. To this purpose, we propose a novel approach based on (i) in situ snow depth or SWE observations, temperature data and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images to determine the pixel state, i.e., whether it is undergoing an SWE increase (accumulation) or decrease (ablation), (ii) a daily HR time series of snow cover area (SCA) maps derived by high- and low-resolution multispectral optical satellite images to define the days of snow presence, and (iii) a degree-day model driven by in situ temperature to determine the potential melting. Given the typical high spatial heterogeneity of snow in mountainous areas, the use of HR images represents an important novelty that allows us to sample its distribution more adequately, thus resulting in highly detailed spatialized information. The proposed SWE reconstruction approach also foresees a novel SCA time series regularization technique that models impossible transitions based on the pixel state, i.e., the erroneous change in the pixel class from snow to snow-free when it is expected to be in accumulation or equilibrium and, vice versa, from snow-free to snow when it is expected to be in ablation or equilibrium. Furthermore, it reconstructs the SWE for the entire hydrological season, including late snowfall. The approach does not require spatialized precipitation information as input, which is usually affected by uncertainty. The method provided good results in two different test catchments: the South Fork of the San Joaquin River, California, and the Schnals catchment, Italy. It obtained good agreement when evaluated against HR spatialized reference maps (showing an average bias of -22 mm, a root mean square error – RMSE – of 212 mm, and a correlation of 0.74), against a daily dataset at coarser resolution (showing an average bias of -44 mm, an RMSE of 127 mm, and a correlation of 0.66), and against manual measurements (showing an average bias of -5 mm, an RMSE of 191 mm, and a correlation of 0.35). The main sources of error are discussed to provide insights into the main advantages and disadvantages of the method that may be of interest for several hydrological and ecological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite lower‐than‐average total precipitation in the western states of the U.S., the 2021 "precipitation roller coaster" defined as large precipitation swings has pointed to a strong hydroclimatic intensity (HYINT). Here we examine the 2021 HYINT using an index—a product of the average precipitation intensity (INT) and dry spell length (DSL). HYINT exhibited an extremely high value in the western U.S. in 2021. INT and DSL contribute differently to the 2021 HYINT, with large spatial variability. Overall, the 2021 extreme HYINT in central California and Utah is tied more to large INT, than to DSL. Meanwhile, the historical trends in INT and DSL may have contributed to the extreme 2021 HYINT event. The fraction of attributable risk framework reveals that the 2021 extreme HYINT is more likely to occur with anthropogenic forcing (e.g., 7.3 times more likely for HYINT exceeding 1.3) than natural forcing alone. Plain Language Summary: The western U.S. is a hotspot for studying climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle. Despite lower‐than‐average total precipitation in 2021, the contrasting dryness and wetness in the western U.S. has been widely reported as a "precipitation roller coaster." In this paper we quantified the "precipitation roller coaster" using an index (hydroclimatic intensity [HYINT])—a product of average precipitation intensity during wet days and dry spell length (DSL). The study found that the 2021 extreme HYINT event was largely attributable to the combined impacts of precipitation intensity and DSL in California and Utah, with precipitation intensity playing a more important role. In contrast, the 2021 precipitation event in other western states exhibited divergent contributions from precipitation intensity and DSL. The southwestern U.S. has been identified as a hotspot for increasing HYINT, which is tied more to the increasing DSL than the precipitation intensity. The trends in DSL and precipitation intensity may have played a key role in driving the 2021 extreme HYINT event. Using climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcing, an extreme HYINT event in the western U.S. is more likely to occur with anthropogenic forcing. Key Points: Hydroclimatic intensity (HYINT) exhibited extremely high values in parts of the western U.S. in 2021, mainly caused by average precipitation intensityHYINT shows a significant rising trend in most of the southwestern U.S. mainly tied to a rising dry spell length trendThe extreme HYINT event is more likely to occur under anthropogenic forcing than natural forcing alone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service's Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to identify the local and global climate patterns in the preceding seasons that influence how the burned summer forest area in California varies year-to-year. We find that a dry atmosphere, high temperatures, dry soils, less snowpack, low precipitation, subsiding air, and high pressure centered west of California all correlate significantly with large summer burned area as far back as the preceding January. These climate anomalies occur as part of a hemispheric scale pattern with weak connections to the tropical Pacific Ocean. We also describe the climate anomalies preceding the extreme and record-breaking burned-area year of 2018, and how these compared with the more general patterns found. These results give important insight into how well and how early it might be possible to predict the severity of an upcoming summer wildfire season in California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural development and water infrastructure constitute the central features of California's Central Valley. Marxist ecological theory has examined the development of capitalist agriculture in the Central Valley, while decolonial scholarship has critiqued the disproportionate impact of California's water resource management on Indigenous communities. We bring together Marxist ecology and critiques of settler colonialism through an examination of land reclamation in California, culminating in the development of the Central Valley Project (CVP) in the 1930s. Reclamation combined the twin logics of capitalism (accumulation) and settler colonialism (elimination) to produce landscapes conducive to capitalist agriculture. Faced with ecological limits to accumulation, colonial‐capitalist expansion required state intervention in the form of infrastructure projects to secure water for agricultural production. The CVP generated a rift in California's hydrologic cycle, causing significant declines in water quality and fisheries and giving rise to forms of resistance and restoration that challenge colonial‐capitalist water development in the Central Valley. The reciprocal restoration of salmon fisheries offers a method to begin mending this hydrologic rift while disrupting ongoing settler colonial violence in California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • This is the first study to estimate the impacts of wildfires on snow melt in the San Joaquin watershed. • Spatiotemporal visual variations in SWE were mapped in the San Joaquin watershed. • Random forest and deep analytics were performed to examine the SWE in the San Joaquin watershed. • Wildfires have increased the speed of snowmelt and shortened the timing of water availability. • The correlation between fire severity and SWE values was determined to be strongly positive. Farmers and ranchers living in snow mountainous regions heavily rely on melting snow for agricultural irrigation. However, major natural disturbances, such as wildfires, have markedly reduced melt durations, disrupting the local hydrological cycle. In this study, we estimate the impacts of wildfires on snow accumulation and retention in the San Joaquin watershed of Sierra Nevada around California during the 2000 to 2016 water year through spatiotemporal visual variations in the snow water equivalent (SWE). To better explore the relationship between SWE and wildfire, machine learning methods, including regression analysis and deep analytics, were performed to examine the original remote sensing dataset of SWE in the San Joaquin watershed. The results suggested that wildfires have greatly increased the speed of snowmelt and shortened the timing of water availability, which may result in water resource shortages. We also comparatively analyzed the peak SWE values in each year, in which two water year groups (group (1): 2000–2003, group (2): 2013–2016) were selected and compared based on the frequency of major wildfires. Interestingly, higher fluctuations in SWE curves were observed from 2010 to 2016 than from 2000 to 2003, which suggested that the frequency of wildfires was much higher in recent years than in the past twenty years. Ultimately, the correlation between fire severity and SWE values was determined to be strongly positive (p < 0.05). Overall, our study provides visual-mathematical perspectives for local ecology management authorities to understand the most related factors behind the shortened melt duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

California receives much of its precipitation from cool-season atmospheric rivers, which contribute to water resources and flooding. In winter 2017, a large number of atmospheric rivers caused anomalous winter precipitation, nearsaturated soils, and a partial melting of snowpack, which led to excessive runoff that damaged the emergency spillway of the Oroville Dam. Given the positive and negative impacts ARs have in California, it is necessary to understand how they will change in a future climate. While prior studies have examined future changes in the frequency of atmospheric rivers impacting the West Coast of the United States, these studies primarily use coarse global climate models that are unable to resolve the complex terrain of this region. Such a limitation is overcome by using a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model, which resolves complex topography and orographic rainfall processes that are the main drivers of heavy precipitation in landfalling atmospheric rivers. This high-resolution model is used to examine changes to precipitation and runoff in California's cool season from 2002 to 2013, particularly in flood-producing storms associated with atmospheric rivers, in a future, warmer climate using a pseudo-global warming approach. In 45 flood-producing storms, precipitation and runoff increase by 21%-26% and 15%-34%, respectively, while SWE decreases by 32%-90%, with the greatest changes at mid-elevations. These trends are consistent with future precipitation changes during the entire cool season. Results suggest more intense floods and less snowpack available for water resources in the future, which should be carefully considered in California's future water management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new hybrid model combining the kernel functions along with the random vector functional link neural network (RVFLN) is proposed in this paper for an effective solar power prediction. The conventional RVFLN is known for its fast learning speed, simple architecture and good generalization capabilities and allows direct connection between input and output nodes along with nonlinear enhancement nodes with random weights. However, the bottleneck of selecting the number of hidden enhancement nodes and mapping functions is still a challenging problem. To overcome these deficiencies of the conventional RVFLN, kernel functions are used for both the direct links and the hidden nodes to provide better stability, generalization and regression accuracy. Instead of using a single kernel for the enhancement nodes, this paper proposes an optimal kernel function that comprises a linear combination of weighted local kernel and a global kernel to improve the prediction accuracy of the solar power generation. This optimal kernel will be known as multi-kernel RVFLN (MK-RVFLN), and its parameters are optimized using an efficient metaheuristic evaporation-based water cycle (EVWCA-MKRVFLN) to provide accurate prediction of solar power. To validate its superior prediction accuracy, two solar power plants of 25 and 100 MW capacity in the states of New York and California are considered for 5-min- and 60-min-ahead prediction in the months of January, April, July and October. The result analysis shows that the MK-RVFLN algorithm attains better performance than many other techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas--namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mean precipitation along the U.S. West Coast exhibits a pronounced seasonality change under warming. Here we explore the characteristics of the seasonality change and investigate the underlying mechanisms, with a focus on quantifying the roles of moisture (thermodynamic) versus circulation (dynamic). The multimodel simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show a simple "wet-get-wetter" response over Washington and Oregon but a sharpened seasonal cycle marked by a stronger and narrower wet season over California. Moisture budget analysis shows that changes in both regions are predominantly caused by changes in the mean moisture convergence. The thermodynamic effect due to the mass convergence of increased moisture dominates the wet-get-wetter response over Washington and Oregon. In contrast, mean zonal moisture advection due to seasonally dependent changes in land–sea moisture contrast originating from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation dominates the sharpened wet season over California. More specifically, the stronger climatological land–sea thermal contrast in winter with warmer ocean than land results in more moisture increase over ocean than land under warming and hence wet advection to California. However, in fall and spring, the future change of land–sea thermal contrast with larger warming over land than ocean induces an opposite moisture gradient and hence dry advection to California. These results have important implications for projecting changes in the hydrological cycle of the U.S. West Coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• California has shown a wide range of ombroxeric levels (OXI). • Upper strong dry level was found in the north of the State. • Lower weak arid level was found in both the Sonora and Mojave deserts. • Annual trend results have shown an increase in bioclimatic drought throughout California. • June, July and August are the months that show the highest levels of bioclimatic drought. Drought occurs naturally all over the world. Global warming has led an increase in the areas affected by this phenomenon. The study of drought involves the analysis of indicators and indices used to assess changes in the hydrological cycle of a region. A large number of indices developed for drought monitoring are based on meteorological and hydrological variables. This research has applied the Ombroxeric Index for the first time in California. It is based on the concept of ombroxericity: a condition of the territory characterised from an ombrothermic point of view, which can develop in relatively humid areas/zones, depending on the time scale of the study (i.e. monthly, seasonal or annual basis). Temperatures and precipitation from 180 meteorological stations have been considered for a period of observation from 1980 to 2016. In order to know the evolution of this index, a modified trend analysis based on the Mann-Kendall test and a modified Sen slope analysis were used. Empirical Bayesian Kriging was applied as an interpolation technique. Results are presented in both surface and contour maps. California showed a wide range of ombroxeric levels that went from upper strong dry in northern zones, to lower weak arid. Trend results showed an increase in bioclimatic drought throughout the whole State. In addition, summer showed the highest levels on the Ombroxeric Index. An increase in drought trends was observed at the seasonal level, being more pronounced in summer and spring. In both cases are increases in the central (+5 and +3.6 units year−1 respectively) and the southern (+4 and +4.5 units year−1 respectively) areas of the State. Increasing frequency and severity of droughts could have implications for the management of water resources and the survival of Californian vegetation types, such as conifers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The San Francisco Bay Area is no stranger to the emerging water challenges of climate change and population growth. As California bounces back from one of the most severe droughts in the state's history, utilities are forced to look for more resilient ways to manage their water resources. In the search for enhanced water reliability and resiliency, water providers must identify viable and innovative ways to increase water supplies and decrease demands. These decisions will be highly dependent on local characteristics, and the population dynamics that greatly affect supply, demand, and adaptation capacity in each region. This article explores the evolving supply and demand dynamics in 26 interconnected water utilities in the Bay Area. These utilities reflect not only the challenges that much of the state is facing due to the ongoing drought, but also the stresses of a growing population and shifting socioeconomic characteristics. The region has made significant investments in water efficiency and conservation that have helped increase resilience during the current drought, but conservation can only go so far and many uncertainties remain about future directions for supply and demand management. We explore: (1) how the supply and demand landscapes have evolved in these utilities over the past few decades, (2) what the main drivers have been, and (3) identify opportunities for the region to move forward in response to changing dynamics. The result is a holistic perspective that can help inform water managers and policy makers in preparation for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers news briefs related to different scientific research services as of June 16, 2017. Topics discussed include analysis of several plants for symbiotic relationships with mycorrhizal fungi; alteration in hydrological loading cycle impact changes in crustal stress that may lead to an earthquake in California; and assessment of an early life stress with behavioral depression in adulthood with regulation of transcription factor orthodenticle homeobox 2 (OTX2).

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This disagreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (>60 mm day−1) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that precipitation frequency will decrease by the 2060s, with a mean reduction of 6-14 days yr−1. This reduces California's mean annual precipitation by about 5.7%. Partly offsetting this, 16 of the 25 projections agree that daily precipitation intensity will increase, which accounts for a model average 5.3% increase in annual precipitation. Between these conflicting tendencies, 12 projections show drier annual conditions by the 2060s and 13 show wetter. These results are obtained from 16 global general circulation models downscaled with different combinations of dynamical methods [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Regional Spectral Model (RSM), and version 3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)] and statistical methods [bias correction with spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and bias correction with constructed analogs (BCCA)], although not all downscaling methods were applied to each global model. Model disagreements in the projected change in occurrence of the heaviest precipitation days (>60 mm day−1) account for the majority of disagreement in the projected change in annual precipitation, and occur preferentially over the Sierra Nevada and Northern California. When such events are excluded, nearly twice as many projections show drier future conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effects of atmospheric river (AR) landfalls in the California coast on the cold-season precipitation in California are examined for the cold seasons of 10 water years (WYs) 2001-2010 using observed data and regional modeling in conjunction with AR-landfall inventory based on visual inspections of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from remote sensing and reanalysis. The PWV in the SSM/I and SSMIS retrievals and the ERA-Interim reanalysis shows 95 AR-landfall days in the California coast that are almost evenly split between the northern and southern coasts across 37.5N. The CPC/NCEP gridded daily precipitation analysis shows that 10-30% of the cold-season precipitation totals in California have occurred during these AR landfalls. The analysis also reveals that the percentage of precipitation and the precipitation intensity during AR landfalls in California are characterized by strong north-to-south gradient. This north-south contrast in the AR precipitation is reversed for the non-AR precipitation in the coastal range. The frequency of AR landfalls and the cold-season precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region are only marginally correlated. Instead, AR landfalls are closely related with the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The freezing-level altitudes are systematically higher for AR wet days than non-AR wet days indicating warmer low-troposphere during AR storms. Cold season simulations for the 10 WYs 2001-2010 show that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model can reasonably simulate important features in both the seasonal and AR precipitation totals. The daily pattern correlation coefficients between the simulated and ERA-Interim upper-air fields exceed 0.9 for most of the period. This suggests that the simulated temporal variations in the atmospheric circulation agree reasonably with the reanalysis over seasonal time scales, characteristics critical for reliable simulations of regional scale hydrologic cycle. The simulated seasonal and AR precipitation totals also agree reasonably with the CPC/NCEP precipitation analysis. The most notable model errors include the overestimation (underestimation) of the season-total and AR precipitation in the northern (southern) California region. The differences in the freezing-level altitudes during the AR- and non-AR wet days in the simulation agree with those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The freezing level altitudes are systematically overestimated in the simulations, suggesting warm biases in the low troposphere. Overall, WRF appears to perform reasonably in simulating the key features in the cold season precipitation related with AR landfalls, an important capability for assessing the impact of global climate variations and change on future hydrology in California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This article aims to assess the value of adaptive reservoir management versus traditional operation practices in the context of climatic change for Northern California. The assessment uses adaptive decision model being developed for planning and operational management of the Northern California (central valley) water resources system (), coupled with a dynamic downscaling and hydrologic modeling system described in . The assessment process compares the water system response in four simulated scenarios, pertaining to two management policies (traditional and adaptive) and two hydrologic data sets (one for the historical and a second for a future scenario). The assessments show that the current policy, which is tuned to the historical hydrologic regime, is unable to cope effectively with the more variable future climate. As a result, the water supply, energy, and environmental water uses cannot be effectively satisfied during future droughts, exposing the system to higher vulnerabilities and risks. By contrast, the adaptive policy maintains similar performance under both hydrologic scenarios, suggesting that adaptive management constitutes an effective mitigation measure to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a conceptual model for the ecology of the spring snowmelt recession based on the natural flow regime that relates the quantifiable components of magnitude, timing, and rate of change to abiotic and biotic factors that govern riverine processes. We find that shifts in the magnitude of the recession largely affect abiotic channel conditions, whereas shifts in the timing of the snowmelt primarily affect biotic conditions. Shifts in the rate of change affect both abiotic and biotic conditions, creating the largest observed changes to the stream ecosystem. We discuss these components with regard to the success of riverine species in California's Mediterranean-montane environment. We then present two scenarios of change to the spring snowmelt recession—effects of flow regulation and climate warming—and discuss their potential implications for riverine ecology. Our conceptual model can help guide watershed stakeholders toward a better understanding of the impacts of changing spring recession conditions on stream ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts ranging between 25 and 50%, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70%. Stream-to-aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30-year model-simulated future. However, the overall response to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground-water insurance to sustain California during extended dry periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollutants accumulated on road pavement during dry periods are washed off the surface with runoff water during rainfall events, presenting a potentially hazardous non-point source of pollution. Estimation of pollutant loads in these runoff waters is required for developing mitigation and management strategies, yet the numerous factors involved and their complex interconnected influences make straightforward assessment almost impossible. Data driven models (DDMs) have lately been used in water and environmental research and have shown very good prediction ability. The proposed methodology of a coupled MT-GA model provides an effective, accurate and easily calibrated predictive model for EMC of highway runoff pollutants. The models were trained and verified using a comprehensive data set of runoff events monitored in various highways in California, USA. EMCs of Cr, Pb, Zn, TOC and TSS were modeled, using different combinations of explanatory variables. The models' prediction ability in terms of correlation between predicted and actual values of both training and verification data was mostly higher than previously reported values. PbTotal was modeled with an outcome of R2 of 0.95 on training data and 0.43 on verification data. The developed model for TOC achieved R2 values of 0.91 and 0.49 on training and verification data respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates application of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to a burned watershed in San Bernardino County, California. We evaluate the HEC-HMS’ ability to simulate discharge in prefire and postfire conditions in a semi arid watershed and the necessary parameterizations for modeling hydrologic response during the immediate, and subsequent recovery, period after a wildfire. The model is applied to City Creek watershed, which was 90% burned during the Old Fire of October 2003. An optimal spatial resolution for the HEC-HMS model was chosen based on an initial sensitivity analysis of subbasin configurations and related model performance. Five prefire storms were calibrated for the selected model resolution, defining a set of parameters that reasonably simulate prefire conditions. Six postfire storms, two from each of the following rainy (winter) seasons were then selected to simulate postfire response and evaluate relative changes in parameter values and model behavior. There were clear trends in the postfire parameters [initial abstractions ( Ia), curve number (CN), and lag time] that reveal significant (and expected) changes in watershed behavior. CN returns to prefire (baseline) values by the end of Year 2, while Ia approaches baseline by the end of the third rainy season. However, lag time remains significantly lower than prefire values throughout the three-year study period. Our results indicate that recovery of soil conditions and related runoff response is not entirely evidenced by the end of the study period (three rainy seasons postfire). Understanding the evolution of the land surface and related hydrologic properties during the highly dynamic postfire period, and accounting for these changes in model parameterizations, will allow for more accurate and reliable discharge simulations in both the immediate, and subsequent, rainy seasons following fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities have greatly increased the input of biologically available nitrogen (N) from land-based sources to aquatic ecosystems; yet few studies have examined how human actions influence N export in regions with a strong seasonality in water availability. In this study, we quantified N inputs and outputs for 23 California watersheds and examined how climate, hydrology, and land use practices influenced watershed N export. N inputs ranged from 581 to 11,234 kg N km−2 year−1 among watersheds, with 80% of total input for the region originating from agriculture (inorganic fertilizer, manure, and legumes). Of the potential N sources examined, mean annual concentrations of dissolved organic N and dissolved inorganic N in study rivers correlated most strongly with manure N input ( r2 = 0.54 and 0.53, respectively). Seasonal N export varied by basin and was correlated with climate, anthropogenic N inputs, and reservoir releases. Fractional export of watershed N inputs by study rivers annually was small (median of 8%) and scaled exponentially with runoff ( r = 0.66). Collectively, our results show that anthropogenic activities have altered both the magnitude and timing of watershed N export in California and suggest that targeted management in specific locations and times of the year could reduce N export to downstream systems in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fog is a seasonally variable hydrologic input to coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens, D. Don) ecosystems with a stable isotopic composition (δ18O, δ2H) that is distinct from rainfall. The intra-annual variation in tree ring cellulose δ18O of coast redwood was measured to determine what portion of the tree ring should be sampled to best target fog signals. Ten years of rings were subdivided into ten equal units for three trees at two sites in northern California. Intra-annual variation in cellulose δ18O was as high as 3‰ with a consistent pattern of enriched (in 18O) values from the annual ring boundary and depleted values from the central portion of the ring. These patterns show a strong coherence between replicate trees at the same site as well as significant correlations between individuals at sites over 250 km apart. Intra-annual variation in stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) was as high as 2‰ and produced a pattern with depleted (in 13C) values from the ring boundary and enriched values from the central portion of the ring. Although these δ13C patterns were not as strongly correlated between replicate trees as the patterns in δ18O variation, they did produce significant correlations with the variation in fog frequencies recorded at local airports. This study highlights the importance of quantifying intra-annual variation in tree ring stable isotope signals as a guide to further investigations on historic variability from long chronologies especially if the signal of interest is seasonally variable (eg, fog). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The species identification and antimicrobial resistance profiles were determined for enterococci isolated from Southern California surface and ocean waters. Methods and Results: Species identification was determined for 1413 presumptive Enterococcus isolates from urban runoff, bay, ocean and sewage water samples. The most frequently isolated species were Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus hirae, Enterococcus casseliflavus and Enterococcus mundtii. All five of these species were isolated from ocean and bay water with a frequency ranging from 7% to 36%. Enterococcus casseliflavus was the most frequently isolated species in urban runoff making up 36–65% of isolates while E. faecium was the most frequently isolated species in sewage making up 53–78% of isolates. The similar distribution of species in urban runoff and receiving water suggests that urban runoff may be the source of Enterococcus. No vancomycin or high level gentamycin resistance was detected in E. faecalis and E. faecium isolates. Conclusions: Enterococcus faecalis, E. faecium, E. casseliflavus and E. mundtii are the most commonly isolated Enterococcus species from urban runoff and receiving waters in Southern California. Significance and Impact of the Study: Determination of the Enterococcus species isolated from receiving waters and potential pollution sources may assist in determining the sources of pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific literature presents conflicting assessments of whether tidal saltwater wetlands reduce or increase fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) impairment of marine bathing waters. In this paper we describe the use of a two end-member salinity-mixing model to calculate FIB treatment efficiencies for the Talbert Marsh, a tidal saltwater wetland in Orange County, California. The mixing model utilized FIB and salinity measurements (n = 10716) collected during a three-year longitudinal study of the Talbert Marsh. Over the course of the study the marsh received progressively less dry weather surface water runoff from the surrounding urban landscape due to the implementation of a runoff interception and treatment program. As the volume of dry-weather runoff entering the marsh declined, the Talbert Marsh more efficiently removed one FIB group (total coliform) and became a significantly smaller source of two other FIB groups (Escherichia coli and enterococci bacteria). Hence, there may be a maximum volume of dry weather urban runoff (in this case <1% of the average tidal prism of 2.35 × 105 m³/day) that a tidal saltwater wetland can receive, above which the wetland is a net source of FIB to coastal waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to affect the generation of energy from California's high-elevation hydropower systems. To investigate these impacts, this study formulates a linear programming model of an 11-reservoir hydroelectric system operated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District in the Upper American River basin. Four sets of hydrologic scenarios are developed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model combined with climatic output from two general circulation models under two greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. Power generation and revenues fall under two of the four climate change scenarios, as a consequence of drier hydrologic conditions. Energy generation is primarily limited by annual volume of streamflow, and is affected more than revenues, reflecting the ability of the system to store water when energy prices are low for use when prices are high (July through September). Power generation and revenues increase for two of the scenarios, which predict wetter hydrologic conditions. In this case, power generation increases more than revenues indicating that the system is using most of its available capacity under current hydrologic conditions. Hydroelectric systems located in basins with hydrograph centroids occuring close to summer months (July through September) are likely to be affected by the changes in hydrologic timing associated with climate change (e.g., earlier snowmelts and streamflows) if the systems lack sufficient storage capacity. High Sierra hydroelectric systems with sufficiently large storage capacity should not be affected by climate-induced changes in hydrologic timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When hydrological models are used for probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework, the deterministic components of the approach can lead to errors in the estimation of forecast uncertainty, as represented by the spread of the forecast ensemble. One avenue for correcting the resulting forecast reliability errors is to calibrate the streamflow forecast ensemble to match observed error characteristics. This paper outlines and evaluates a method for forecast calibration as applied to seasonal streamflow prediction. The approach uses the correlation of forecast ensemble means with observations to generate a conditional forecast mean and spread that lie between the climatological mean and spread (when the forecast has no skill) and the raw forecast mean with zero spread (when the forecast is perfect). Retrospective forecasts of summer period runoff in the Feather River basin, California, are used to demonstrate that the approach improves upon the performance of traditional ESP forecasts by reducing errors in forecast mean and improving spread estimates, thereby increasing forecast reliability and skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The toxicity of stormwater runoff during various time-based stages was measured in both grab and composite samples collected from three highly urbanized highway sites in Los Angeles, California between 2002 and 2005. Stormwater runoff samples were tested for toxicity using three freshwater species (the water flea Ceriodaphnia dubia, the fathead minnow Pimephales promelas, and the green algae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitatum) and two marine species (the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, and the luminescent bacteria Photobacterium phosphoreum using Microtox™). Toxicity results varied substantially throughout the storm events for both freshwater and marine species toxicity tests. In general, however, the first few samples were found to be more toxic compared with those collected during later stages of each storm event. In most cases, more than 40% of the toxicity was associated with the first 20% of discharged runoff volume. Furthermore, on average, 90% of the toxicity was observed during the first 30% of storm duration. Toxicity identification evaluation results found copper and zinc to be the primary cause of toxicity in about 90% of the samples evaluated with these procedures. Surfactants were also found to be the cause of toxicity in less than 10% of the samples. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Stormwater river plumes are important vectors of marine contaminants and pathogens in the Southern California Bight. Here we report the results of a multi-institution investigation of the river plumes across eight major river systems of southern California. We use in situ water samples from multi-day cruises in combination with MODIS satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns and dynamics of the freshwater plumes. River discharge was exceptionally episodic, and the majority of storm discharge occurred in a few hours. The combined plume observing techniques revealed that plumes commonly detach from the coast and turn to the left, which is the opposite direction of Coriolis influence. Although initial offshore velocity of the buoyant plumes was ∼50cm/s and was influenced by river discharge inertia (i.e., the direct momentum of the river flux) and buoyancy, subsequent advection of the plumes was largely observed in an alongshore direction and dominated by local winds. Due to the multiple day upwelling wind conditions that commonly follow discharge events, plumes were observed to flow from their respective river mouths to down-coast waters at rates of 20–40km/d. Lastly, we note that suspended-sediment concentration and beam-attenuation were poorly correlated with plume salinity across and within the sampled plumes (mean r 2=0.12 and 0.25, respectively), while colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence was well correlated (mean r 2=0.56), suggesting that CDOM may serve as a good tracer of the discharged freshwater in subsequent remote sensing and monitoring efforts of plumes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In-site measurements of particle size spectra were obtained from three offshore cruises to evaluate the physical consequences of increased sediment transport and deposition offshore which was caused by episodic storm runoff water from the Santa Ana River watershed, a highly urbanised coastal watershed in southern California. Of the total annual runoff discharge to the coastal ocean, 89.2% occurred in the 2003/2004 winter season, and 0.22 Mt of sediment mass was transported during the storm events. The runoff plume at surface taken offshore by cross-shore currents progressed rapid aggregation and sedimentation, while the initially high concentration of suspended sediment discharged from the river outlet was dominated by small particles. Vertical profiles of particle size spectra revealed two separated plumes near the river outlet and turbidity plume along the bottom consisted of an abundance of very fine and dense particles. It would appear to support the theory that even if the storm runoff does not carry a high concentration of sediment being capable of generating negative buoyancy, sediment deposition on the shelf might mobilise in dense, fluid mud transported offshore by gravity. In a coastal pollution context, sediment particle size spectra information may offer potentially useful means of characterising particle-associated pollutants for purposes of source tracking and environmental interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Field studies were conducted to characterize the concentration vs streamflow relationships (or ‘flow fingerprints’) of fecal pollution and suspended solids in stormwater runoff from the Santa Ana River watershed, the largest watershed in southern California. The concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria and F+ coliphages (viruses infecting E. coli) exhibit little-to-no dependence on streamflow rates, whereas the concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS) exhibit a very strong (power-law) dependence on streamflow rates. The different flow fingerprints observed for fecal pollutants, on one hand, and TSS, on the other hand, reflect different sources and transport pathways for these stormwater constituents. The flow-independent nature of fecal indicator bacteria and F+ coliphages is consistent with the idea that these contaminants are ubiquitously present on the surface of the urban landscape and rapidly partition into the surface water as the landscape is wetted by rainfall. The flow-dependent nature of TSS, on the other hand, is usually ascribed to the shear-induced erosion of channel bed sediments and/or the expansion of drainage area contributing to runoff. The apparent ubiquity of fecal indicator bacteria and F+ coliphages, together with the very high storm-loading rates of fecal indicator bacteria and the low detection frequency of human adenovirus and human enterovirus, suggest that fecal pollution in stormwater runoff from the Santa Ana River watershed is primarily of nonhuman waste origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Sediment yield from small arid basins, particularly in the Mojave Desert, is largely unknown owing to the ephemeral nature of these fluvial systems and long recurrence interval of flow events. We examined 27 reservoirs in the northern and eastern Mojave Desert that trapped sediment from small (<1 km2) drainage basins on alluvial fans over the past 100 yr, calculated annual sediment yield, and estimated the average recurrence interval (RI) of sediment-depositing flow events. These reservoirs formed where railbeds crossed and blocked channels, causing sediment to be trapped and stored upslope. Deposits are temporally constrained by the date of railway construction (1906–1910), the presence of 137Cs in the reservoir profile (post-1952 sediment), and either 1993, when some basins breached during regional flooding, or 2000–2001, when stratigraphic analyses were performed. Reservoir deposits are well stratified at most sites and have distinct fining-upward couplets indicative of discrete episodes of sediment-bearing runoff. Average RI of runoff events for these basins ranges from 2.6 to 7.3 yr and reflects the incidence of either intense or prolonged rainfall; more than half the runoff events occurred before 1963. A period of above-normal precipitation, from 1905 to 1941, may have increased runoff frequency in these basins. Mean sediment yield (9 to 48 tons km−2 yr−1) is an order of magnitude smaller than sediment yields calculated elsewhere and may be limited by reduced storm intensity, the presence of desert pavement, and shallow gradient of fan surfaces. Sediment yield decreases as drainage area increases, a trend typical of much larger drainage basins where sediment-transport processes constrain sediment yield. Coarse substrate and low-angle slopes of these alluvial fan surfaces likely limit sediment transport capacity through transmission losses and channel storage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300–2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300–2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric circulation anomalies and hydrologic processes associated with California wet and dry events were examined during Northern Hemisphere winter. The precipitation anomaly over the west coast of North America shows a north--south three-cell pattern. Heavy precipitation in California is accompanied by dry conditions over Washington, British Columbia, and along the southeastern coast of Alaska and reduced precipitation over the subtropical eastern Pacific. The inverse relationship between California and the Pacific Northwest is supported by the transport of moisture flux. During wet events, the southern branch of moisture flux transport strengthens and brings moisture from the North Pacific to California, hence enhanced rainfall. Strengthened moisture flux transport northward to the area north of Washington is consistent with suppressed rainfall in California. The local precipitation anomaly pattern in the eastern tropical Pacific just north of the equator has a large influence on precipitation events in California. The enhanced precipitation generates strong rising motion. The associated sinking motion is located over California. Strong sinking motion and strong upper-level convergence favor dry conditions in California. Conversely, suppressed rainfall in the eastern Pacific is associated with above-normal precipitation in California. Precipitation in California is likely below normal during cold ENSO events. When convection in the central Pacific is enhanced, California has heavy precipitation if rainfall in the subtropical eastern Pacific is suppressed. In addition to ENSO, precipitation in California is also modulated by the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Wet (dry) events are favored during the phase of the oscillation associated with enhanced convection near 1508E (1208E) in the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As drought occurs in a region it can have cascading effects through the water cycle. In this study, we explore the temporal co-evolution of various components of the hydrologic cycle in California from 2002 to 2018. We combine information from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) suite of models, and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) reservoir levels to analyze dynamics of Total Water Storage (TWS), soil moisture, snow pack, large reservoir storage, and ultimately, groundwater. For TWS, a trend of −2 cm/yr is observed during the entire time period of our analysis; however, this rate increases to about −5 cm/yr during drought periods (2006−2010 and 2012−2016). Results indicate that the majority of the loss in TWS is caused by groundwater depletion. Using proper error accounting, we are able to identify the start, the peak, and the ending of the drought periods for each individual water state variable in the study domain. We show that snow and soil moisture are impacted earlier and recover faster than surface water and groundwater. The annual and year-to-year dynamics shown in our results portray a clear cascading effect of the hydrologic cycle on the scale of 8−16 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global-scale changes in anthropogenic nutrient input into marine ecosystems via terrestrial runoff, coupled with widespread predator removal via fishing, have created greater urgency for understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up control of food web dynamics. Yet recent large-scale studies of community regulation in marine ecosystems have shown dramatically different results that leave this issue largely unresolved. We combined a multiyear, large-scale data set of species abundances for 46 species in kelp forests from the California Channel Islands with satellite-derived primary production and found that top-down control explains 7- to 10-fold more of the variance in abundance of bottom and mid-trophic levels than does bottom-up control. This top-down control was propagated via a variety of species-level direct and indirect responses to predator abundance. Management of top-down influences such as fishing may be more important in coastal marine ecosystems, particularly in kelp forest systems, than is commonly thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is one of the &#x0022;hotspots&#x0022; of predicted shift in climate and will beaffected by increasing water scarcity in the near future. Karstified aquifers are vulnerable tochanges in the hydrological cycle due to their high hydraulic conductivity and low storagecapacity. We aim to design an optimal management strategy of carbonate aquifers underMediterranean climate and therefore we have to answer the following questions: what is theavailable quantity of groundwater, how can it be assessed appropriately, and how will thewater resource develop in the long-term? For this goal two numerical approaches for the Western Mountain Aquifer, atransboundary aquifer between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, with a size of 9,000 km2are compared: i) a process-based deterministic and ii) a stochastic numerical model. Theaquifer is developed since 1950 and constitutes today the main freshwater resource for bothcountries. HydroGeoSphere is used to simulate the hydrological-hydrogeological system witha deterministic multi-continuum approach. This concept represents characteristics of therock-soil landscape, local recharge along karst features, transmission losses of ephemeralstreams (wadis), and erratic precipitation pattern most accurately. However, due to the largenumber of hydraulic parameters simulation results are subjected to high parameteruncertainty. A stochastic single-continuum modelling concept using MODFLOW is developed toconsider parameter uncertainty, data scarcity, and the aquifer genesis. The single-continuummodel is parameterised with a stochastic prediction of the karst networks distribution.Parameterization and location of the karst features are defined with probability densityfunctions. Within the stochastic model the unsaturated zone is assigned as boundarycondition based on a spectral analysis of long-term spring discharge measurements. Thespectral analysis assesses the relation between precipitation and spring discharge to derive atransfer function that represents the entire karst system behaviour and its hydrologicalcharacteristics using a set of lumped parameters. Both numerical flow models are calibrated using an inversion of time series ofpiezometric pressure heads and spring discharge measured between 1951 – 2006. Climate projections show that during winter mean temperatures will rise in the rechargearea by up to 2˚ C increasing evaporation rates distinctively. However, total precipitation willdecrease by 20%. Climate modelling indicates that a larger proportion of rainfall will occurduring extreme events with an increase of the total amount of 10% affectingly mostly theNorthern recharge area. We therefore expect, that the impact of regional shifts in climate onrecharge rates and groundwater resources will be impressive. Therefore, based on thecalibrated groundwater models and newly developed TF the response of the groundwatersystem and recharge to changes in climate is analyzed. For this purpose, climate data from ahigh-resolution (∼8 km grid) regional climate model between 2041-2070 are currentlyinvestigated. The methods and findings of the case study are then generalized for the global transfer toother hard-rock aquifers under Mediterranean climate conditions, e.g. in California,employing an empirical hydro-pedotransfer functions (HPTFs). The newly developed HPTFswill give daily percolation rates, requiring only easy accessible input data like precipitationand potential evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the drought crisis in California as of August 2014, which has resulted in the degradation of aquatic habitats and reflects on the effect of climatic change. According to Peter Moyle, biologist at the University of California in Davis, California, the Navarro River has dried completely, which normally happens in the end of October. Topics discussed include effects on the ecosystem, climatic shift, and hydrological cycle.

Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the sudden shifting of ecosystem from one state to another, especially in aquatic environment San Francisco Bay, California. In 1999, a body of water started to experience a great mass of alga blooms which are affiliated with eutrophication, the enrichments of waters by runoff of excessive nutrients. Moreover, the expansion of coastal upwelling of cold, nutrient-laden waters contributed to the growth of pelagic primary production. In addition, the country's changes in the wide part of the river was caused indirectly by the hitherto-unsuspected connection with the sea.

Sierra Nevada snowmelt and runoff is a key source of water for many of California's 38 million residents and nearly the entire population of western Nevada. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of expected 21st Century climatic changes in the Sierra Nevada at the subwatershed scale, for all hydrologic flow components, and for a suite of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated at 35 unimpaired streamflow sites. Results show that temperatures are projected to increase throughout the Sierra Nevada, whereas precipitation projections vary between GCMs. These climatic changes drive a decrease in average annual streamflow and an advance of snowmelt and runoff by several weeks. The largest streamflow reductions were found in the mid-range elevations due to less snow accumulation, whereas the higher elevation watersheds were more resilient due to colder temperatures. Simulation results showed that decreases in snowmelt affects not only streamflow, but evapotranspiration, surface, and subsurface flows, such that less water is available in spring and summer, thus potentially affecting aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Declining spring and summer flows did not equally affect all subwatersheds in the region, and the subwatershed perspective allowed for identification for the most sensitive basins throughout the Sierra Nevada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed a 9-yr record of ocean color data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) together with a 4-yr record of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) measurements to investigate potential mechanisms influencing nearshore phytoplankton variability in the Southern California Bight. We also compared in situ physicochemical conditions at four shoreline stations during a year with an extensive nearshore dinoflagellate red tide (2005) to those of the following year when there was no extended red tide (2006). SeaWiFS data indicated that in spring, chlorophyll a (Chl a) and nitrate (NO3-) were inversely correlated to SSTs, consistent with an upwelling-dominated system, but in summer Chl a and NO3- were unrelated to SST. Summer dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were not well correlated between alongshore sampling stations, but showed a significant effect of tide stage (low vs. high). Mean summer nearshore Chl a was positively, linearly related to rainfall in the previous winter. The relationship between summer Chl a and winter precipitation could be due either to direct freshwater inputs during the winter rainy season or to delayed input via groundwater discharge. A first-order analysis of nutrient delivery from both surface runoff and groundwater discharge showed that they could sustain summer blooms of up to 7540 and 1700 km², respectively-areas on the order of the study site. However, precipitation-induced physical changes to the nearshore water column cannot be conclusively ruled out as a potential causative mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pioneering example of a new breed of climate model, designed to plug the gap between academic research and political decision making, has been published. The analysis of California's climate by researcher Katharine Hayhoe and colleagues outlines how conditions in the state will change under two alternative scenarios, one models the state's future under aggressive policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the other predicts its fate without them. The result is an analysis of the implications for heat- related human mortality, the water cycle and agriculture.