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Rationale: Mathematical modeling is used to understand disease dynamics, forecast trends, and inform public health prioritization. We conducted a comparative analysis of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology and potential intervention effects in California, using three previously developed epidemiologic models of TB. Objectives: To compare the influence of various modeling methods and assumptions on epidemiologic projections of domestic latent TB infection (LTBI) control interventions in California. Methods: We compared model results between 2005 and 2050 under a base-case scenario representing current TB services and alternative scenarios including: 1 ) sustained interruption of Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( Mtb ) transmission, 2 ) sustained resolution of LTBI and TB prior to entry of new residents, and 3 ) one-time targeted testing and treatment of LTBI among 25% of non-U.S.-born individuals residing in California. Measurements and Main Results: Model estimates of TB cases and deaths in California were in close agreement over the historical period but diverged for LTBI prevalence and new Mtb infections-outcomes for which definitive data are unavailable. Between 2018 and 2050, models projected average annual declines of 0.58-1.42% in TB cases, without additional interventions. A one-time LTBI testing and treatment intervention among non-U.S.-born residents was projected to produce sustained reductions in TB incidence. Models found prevalent Mtb infection and migration to be more significant drivers of future TB incidence than local transmission. Conclusions: All models projected a stagnation in the decline of TB incidence, highlighting the need for additional interventions including greater access to LTBI diagnosis and treatment for non-U.S.-born individuals. Differences in model results reflect gaps in historical data and uncertainty in the trends of key parameters, demonstrating the need for high-quality, up-to-date data on TB determinants and outcomes.

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the United States has stabilized, and additional interventions are needed to make progress toward TB elimination. However, the impact of such interventions depends on local demography and the heterogeneity of populations at risk. Using state-level individual-based TB transmission models calibrated to California, Florida, New York, and Texas, we modeled 2 TB interventions: 1) increased targeted testing and treatment (TTT) of high-risk populations, including people who are non-US-born, diabetic, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive, homeless, or incarcerated; and 2) enhanced contact investigation (ECI) for contacts of TB patients, including higher completion of preventive therapy. For each intervention, we projected reductions in active TB incidence over 10 years (2016-2026) and numbers needed to screen and treat in order to avert 1 case. We estimated that TTT delivered to half of the non-US-born adult population could lower TB incidence by 19.8%-26.7% over a 10-year period. TTT delivered to smaller populations with higher TB risk (e.g., HIV-positive persons, homeless persons) and ECI were generally more efficient but had less overall impact on incidence. TTT targeted to smaller, highest-risk populations and ECI can be highly efficient; however, major reductions in incidence will only be achieved by also targeting larger, moderate-risk populations. Ultimately, to eliminate TB in the United States, a combination of these approaches will be necessary., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2019.)

Objectives: Although targeted screening of patients at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the emergency department (ED) improves patient outcomes and may prevent HIV transmission, ED-based screening programs incur additional costs and have thus not been widely scaled up. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ED-based targeted HIV screening as implemented in actual practice., Methods: This was a cost-utility analysis of a rapid HIV screening program in an urban ED. Physicians were encouraged to screen patients undergoing inpatient admission or who had HIV risk factors. The authors measured costs directly and estimated quality-adjusted life expectancy using chart review, literature assumptions, and mathematical modeling. Incremental cost utility was evaluated from a societal perspective using a lifetime time horizon., Results: From June 2008 through September 2009, a total of 3,766 HIV tests were ordered (235 tests per month), of which an estimated 2,406 (64%) represented screening in patients without HIV-related signs or symptoms. Nineteen (0.8%) patients were newly diagnosed through screening during the study period, of whom nine (47%) were eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and maintained consistent outpatient follow-up. Estimated screening costs were $82,300 per year, or $45.53 per screening test, of which $28.01 (62%) was for program management. Targeted screening prevented an estimated 2.1 HIV transmission events over 16 months. Per patient screened, targeted screening saved $112 (95% uncertainty range [UR] = $20 to $225) and resulted in 2.71 quality-adjusted life-days gained (95% UR = 1.71 to 4.01). Cost-utility was most sensitive to the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in the screened population., Conclusions: Targeted HIV screening, as implemented in an urban ED, is cost saving and increases quality-adjusted life expectancy., (© 2011 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.)