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Background: Galectin-3 is a marker of myocardial fibrosis that has been implicated in the pathophysiologic pathway of fibrosis; its association with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a community-based cohort free of baseline CVD has not been reported. Our aim was to determine the association between galectin-3 levels and all-cause and CVD mortality in community-dwelling older adults without known CVD., Methods: We measured plasma galectin-3 levels in 1,393 Rancho Bernardo Study participants without CVD with a mean age of 70 years. Participants were followed up for a mean of 11 years for coronary heart disease, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality., Results: During follow-up, 436 participants died (169 from CVD). In models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors and renal function, galectin-3 was a significant predictor of CVD mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD log increase 1.30, 95% CI 1.10-1.53) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.12, 1.01-1.24), but not coronary heart disease (HR 1.09, 0.92-1.30). After further adjusting for N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, galectin-3 remained an independent predictor (HR 1.24, 1.05-1.47) of CVD mortality. Galectin-3 improved the c statistic (0.847-0.851, P = .003) for prediction of CVD death. Net reclassification improvement (>0) with the addition of galectin-3 was 35% (P < .0001); the integrated discrimination index was also significant (P = .03). Participants with both galectin-3 and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide above the median had increased risk of CVD death vs those with higher levels of only 1 of these markers (HR 1.74, 1.24-2.43)., Conclusion: Higher levels of galectin-3 are independently associated with all-cause and CVD mortality among community-dwelling older adults with no known CVD at baseline., (Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Peripheral conversion of androgens to oestrogens via aromatase is the primary source of oestrogen in postmenopausal women and may play a role in cardiovascular health., Design: Prospective. PARTICIPANTS, MEASUREMENTS: The association of an index of aromatase activity (AROM), the serum oestrone-to-androstenedione ratio, with 25-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was examined in 819 postmenopausal non-oestrogen using women (mean age at baseline = 72)., Results: Overall, 247 deaths were attributed to CVD. The median AROM value was 60 (95% range 17-129). AROM was positively correlated with age (r = 0·28) and body mass index (BMI) (r = 0·22) (P < 0·001). The age-adjusted risk for CVD mortality was significantly elevated for women in the lowest (HR = 2·01, 95% CI 1·31-3·12) and highest (HR = 1·51, 95%CI 1·02-2·22) quintiles of AROM, compared with the middle quintile. This U-shaped association persisted after additional adjustment for BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, exercise, smoking, alcohol use and traditional CVD risk factor covariates. There was a significant interaction of AROM and BMI (P = 0·001), such that high AROM was associated with a 63% reduction in risk of CVD death for women with low BMI (<22 kg/m(2) ), but with 2·1- to 2·5-fold increased risk in women with mid-range (22-<25 kg/m(2) ) and high (≥25 kg/m(2) ) BMI. Oestradiol did not influence AROM associations and was not independently related to CVD death., Conclusions: These results suggest that aromatase is a novel endocrine factor predictive of CVD mortality among postmenopausal women. If confirmed, additional studies are needed to determine whether extremes of aromatase reflect genetic influences or underlying disease processes., (© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the association between neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) levels and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults., Background: NGAL is a novel marker best known for its role in rapidly identifying acute kidney injury. Although expressed in atherosclerosis, its association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the community has not been reported., Methods: We measured plasma NGAL levels in 1,393 Rancho Bernardo Study participants without CVD, mean age 70 years. Participants were followed for a mean time period of 11 years., Results: During follow-up, 436 participants died (169 from CVD). In models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors and creatinine clearance, NGAL was a significant predictor of CVD mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD log increase: 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12 to 1.57), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.32), and a combined cardiovascular endpoint (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.45). After further adjusting for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP), NGAL remained an independent predictor of each outcome. NGAL improved the C-statistic (0.835 to 0.842) for prediction of CVD death (p = 0.001). Net reclassification improvement (>0) with the addition of NGAL was 18% (p = 0.02); the integrated discrimination index was also significant (p = 0.01). Participants with NGAL and NT-proBNP above the median had increased risk of CVD death versus those with only NT-proBNP elevated (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.82)., Conclusions: Plasma NGAL is a significant predictor of mortality and CVD in community-dwelling older adults, independent of traditional risk factors and kidney function, and adds incremental value to NT-proBNP and CRP. The potential impact of these results includes providing insight into new mechanisms of CVD and the possibility of improving screening, intervention, and prevention., (Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the association of fetuin-A with subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in community-living individuals., Background: Fetuin-A is a hepatic secretory protein that inhibits arterial calcium deposition in vitro. Lower fetuin-A levels are associated with arterial calcification and death in end-stage renal disease populations. The association of fetuin-A with subclinical CVD in the general population is unknown., Methods: Among 1,375 community-living individuals without prevalent clinical CVD, we measured plasma fetuin-A concentrations. Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) was defined by ankle brachial index <0.90, coronary artery calcification (CAC) was measured by computed tomography, and common and internal intima-media thickness (cIMT) were measured by carotid ultrasound. PAD was measured concurrent with fetuin-A, and CAC and cIMT were measured 4.6 years (mean) later., Results: Mean age was 70 ± 11 years, and 64% were women. Fetuin-A levels were inversely associated with CAC severity. When evaluated as CAC categories (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 300, >300) with ordinal logistic regression, each SD higher fetuin-A was associated with 31% lower odds of CAC severity (proportional odds ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.46 to 0.92; p = 0.008) in models adjusted for demographic data, lifestyle factors, traditional CVD risk factors, and kidney function. In contrast, no association of fetuin-A was observed with PAD or high common or internal cIMT in adjusted models., Conclusions: Lower fetuin-A levels are independently associated with greater CAC severity but not PAD or cIMT. If confirmed, fetuin-A might mark calcium deposition within the vasculature but not atherosclerosis per se., (Copyright © 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is emerging as a prognostic marker in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its prognostic value in community-dwelling adults has not been reported. We hypothesized that GDF-15 would add incremental power for prediction of mortality in a population of community-dwelling older adults without known heart disease., Methods and Results: We measured plasma GDF-15, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and C-reactive protein levels in 1391 Rancho Bernardo Study participants, mean age 70 years, with no history of CVD and followed them for a mean of 11 years. In models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, GDF-15 was a robust predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality. GDF-15 was a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than either NT-proBNP or C-reactive protein (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD log(10) units 1.5 [1.3 to 1.8], P<0.0001 for GDF-15 versus 1.3 [1.2 to 1.5], P<0.0001 for NT-proBNP; C-reactive protein was not a significant predictor). Among biomarkers considered, only GDF-15 predicted noncardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1.6 [1.4 to 2.0], P<0.0001). Growth differentiation factor-15 improved discrimination and modestly but significantly improved reclassification for all-cause and noncardiovascular mortality with borderline improvement for cardiovascular mortality; NT-proBNP significantly improved reclassification for all-cause and for cardiovascular mortality; C-reactive protein did not improve reclassification for any end point tested. Participants in the highest quartile of both GDF-15 and NT-proBNP had an increased risk of death compared with participants with only NT-proBNP elevated (hazard ratio 1.5 [1.1 to 2.0], P=0.01)., Conclusions: Growth differentiation factor-15 is a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling older individuals, adding incremental value to traditional risk factors and to NT-proBNP and C-reactive protein levels.

Objectives: This study investigated the prognostic value of detectable cardiac troponin T (TnT) and elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels in a population of community-dwelling older adults., Background: Minimally elevated levels of TnT, a marker of cardiomyocyte injury, have been found in small subsets of the general population, with uncertain implications. A marker of ventricular stretch, NT-proBNP has clinical utility in many venues, but its long-term prognostic value in apparently healthy older adults and in conjunction with TnT is unknown., Methods: Participants were 957 older adults from the Rancho Bernardo Study with plasma NT-proBNP and TnT measured at baseline (1997 to 1999) and followed up for mortality through July 2006., Results: Participants with detectable TnT (>/=0.01 ng/ml, n = 39) had an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] by Cox proportional hazards analysis: 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 3.28, p = 0.003 for all-cause mortality; HR: 2.06, 95% CI: 1.03 to 4.12, p = 0.040 for cardiovascular mortality); elevated NT-proBNP also predicted an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR per unit-log increase in NT-proBNP: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.36 to 2.52, p < 0.001 for all-cause mortality; HR: 2.51, 95% CI: 1.55 to 4.08, p < 0.001 for cardiovascular mortality). Those with both elevated NT-proBNP and detectable TnT had poorer survival (HR for high NT-proBNP and detectable TnT vs. low NT-proBNP and any TnT: 3.20, 95% CI: 1.91 to 5.38, p < 0.001). Exclusion of the 152 participants with heart disease at baseline did not materially change the TnT mortality or NT-proBNP mortality associations., Conclusions: Apparently healthy adults with detectable TnT or elevated NT-proBNP levels are at increased risk of death. Those with both TnT and NT-proBNP elevations are at even higher risk, and the increased risk persists for years.

Objectives: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) levels predict incident coronary heart disease (CHD) in adults without known CHD, independent of heart disease risk factors. We examined whether the independent association was apparent in older adults., Background: Serum levels of Lp-PLA2, an enzyme that hydrolyzes oxidized phospholipids to yield potentially proatherogenic particles, have been associated with CHD and may help predict cardiovascular risk., Methods: Participants were 1,077 community-dwelling men and women, median age 72 years, who had no known CHD at baseline (1984 to 1987) when blood samples and risk factor data were collected. Participants were followed for CHD events for a mean of 16 years, through 2002. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of serum Lp-PLA2 with incident CHD (myocardial infarction, angina, or coronary revascularization)., Results: The Lp-PLA2 levels positively correlated with age (r = 0.09), body mass index (r = 0.11), low-density lipoprotein (r = 0.37), triglycerides (r = 0.25), and C-reactive protein (r = 0.10), and negatively correlated with high-density lipoprotein (r = -0.27) (all p < 0.05). During follow-up, 228 participants had incident CHD events. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 levels in the second, third, and fourth quartiles predicted an increased risk of CHD compared with the lowest quartile (hazard ratios 1.66, 1.80, and 1.89, respectively; p < 0.05 for each). This association persisted after adjusting for C-reactive protein and other CHD risk factors., Conclusions: Elevated Lp-PLA2 levels predict CHD events in apparently healthy older adults, independent of CHD risk factors.