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Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process‐based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long‐term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long‐term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site‐specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM‐ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one‐time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow‐release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390–814 kg C ha−1 year−1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha−1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO2e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal‐scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production potential of switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) has not been estimated in a Mediterranean climate on a regional basis and its economic and environmental contribution as a biofuel crop remains unknown. The objectives of the study were to calibrate and validate a biogeochemical model, DAYCENT, and to predict the biomass yield potential of switchgrass across the Central Valley of California. Six common cultivars were calibrated using published data across the US and validated with data generated from four field trials in California (2007-2009). After calibration, the modeled range of yields across the cultivars and various management practices in the US (excluding California) was 2.4-41.2 Mg ha−1 yr−1, generally compatible with the observed yield range of 1.3-33.7 Mg ha−1 yr−1. Overall, the model was successfully validated in California; the model explained 66-90% of observed yield variation in 2007-2009. The range of modeled yields was 2.0-41.4 Mg ha−1 yr−1, which corresponded to the observed range of 1.3-41.1 Mg ha−1 yr−1. The response to N fertilizer and harvest frequency on yields were also reasonably validated. The model estimated that Alamo (21-23 Mg ha−1 yr−1) and Kanlow (22-24 Mg ha−1 yr−1) had greatest yield potential during the years after establishment. The effects of soil texture on modeled yields tended to be consistent for all cultivars, but there were distinct climatic (e.g., annual mean maximum temperature) controls among the cultivars. Our modeled results suggest that early stand maintenance of irrigated switchgrass is strongly dependent on available soil N; estimated yields increased by 1.6-5.5 Mg ha−1 yr−1 when residual soil mineral N was sufficient for optimal re-growth. Therefore, management options of switchgrass for regional biomass production should be ecotype-specific and ensure available soil N maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean climate, with its characteristic of dry summers and wet winters, influences the hydrologic and microbial processes that control carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) biogeochemical processes in chaparral ecosystems. These biogeochemical processes in turn determine N cycling under chronic N deposition. In order to examine connections between climate and N dynamics, we quantified decadal-scale water, C and N states and fluxes at annual, monthly and daily time steps for a California chaparral ecosystem in the Sierra Nevada using the DAYCENT model. The daily output simulations of net mineralization, stream flow and stream nitrate (NO3 −) export were developed for DAYCENT in order to simulate the N dynamics most appropriate for the abrupt rewetting events characteristic of Mediterranean chaparral ecosystems. Overall, the magnitude of annual modeled net N mineralization, soil and plant biomass C and N, nitrate export and gaseous N emission agreed with those of observations. Gaseous N emission was a major N loss pathway in chaparral ecosystems, in which nitric oxide (NO) is the dominant species. The modeled C and N fluxes of net primary production (NPP), N uptake and N mineralization, NO3 − export and gaseous N emission showed both high inter-annual and intra-annual variability. Our simulations also showed dramatic fire effects on NPP, N uptake, N mineralization and gaseous N emission for three years of postfire. The decease in simulated soil organic C and N storages was not dramatic, but lasted a longer time. For the seasonal pattern, the predicted C and N fluxes were greatest during December to March, and lowest in the summer. The model predictions suggested that an increase in the N deposition rate would increase N losses through gaseous N emission and stream N export in the chaparral ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada due to changes in N saturation status. The model predictions could not capture stream NO3 − export during most rewetting events suggesting that a dry-rewetting mechanism representing the increase in N mineralization following soil wetting needs to be incorporated into biogeochemical models of semi-arid ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]