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Rainstorms increase levels of fecal indicator bacteria in urban coastal waters, but it is unknown whether exposure to seawater after rainstorms increases rates of acute illness. Our objective was to provide the first estimates of rates of acute illness after seawater exposure during both dry- and wet-weather periods and to determine the relationship between levels of indicator bacteria and illness among surfers, a population with a high potential for exposure after rain. We enrolled 654 surfers in San Diego, California, and followed them longitudinally during the 2013--2014 and 2014--2015 winters (33,377 days of observation, 10,081 surf sessions). We measured daily surf activities and illness symptoms (gastrointestinal illness, sinus infections, ear infections, infected wounds). Compared with no exposure, exposure to seawater during dry weather increased incidence rates of all outcomes (e.g., for earache or infection, adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27, 2.71; for infected wounds, IRR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.54, 5.98); exposure during wet weather further increased rates (e.g., for earache or infection, IRR = 3.28, 95% CI: 1.95, 5.51; for infected wounds, IRR = 4.96, 95% CI: 2.18, 11.29). Fecal indicator bacteria measured in seawater (Enterococcus species, fecal coliforms, total coliforms) were strongly associated with incident illness only during wet weather. Urban coastal seawater exposure increases the incidence rates of many acute illnesses among surfers, with higher incidence rates after rainstorms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coliphages have been proposed as indicators of fecal contamination in recreational waters because they better mimic the persistence of pathogenic viruses in the environment and wastewater treatment than fecal indicator bacteria. We estimated the association between coliphages and gastrointestinal illness and compared it with the association with culturable enterococci.Methods: We pooled data from six prospective cohort studies that enrolled coastal beachgoers in California, Alabama, and Rhode Island. Water samples were collected and gastrointestinal illness within 10 days of the beach visit was recorded. Samples were tested for enterococci and male-specific and somatic coliphages. We estimated cumulative incidence ratios (CIR) for the association between swimming in water with detectable coliphage and gastrointestinal illness when human fecal pollution was likely present, not likely present, and under all conditions combined. The reference group was unexposed swimmers. We defined continuous and threshold-based exposures (coliphage present/absent, enterococci >35 vs. ≤35 CFU/100 ml).Results: Under all conditions combined, there was no association between gastrointestinal illness and swimming in water with detectable coliphage or enterococci. When human fecal pollution was likely present, coliphage and enterococci were associated with increased gastrointestinal illness, and there was an association between male-specific coliphage level and illness that was somewhat stronger than the association between enterococci and illness. There were no substantial differences between male-specific and somatic coliphage.Conclusions: Somatic coliphage and enterococci had similar associations with gastrointestinal illness; there was some evidence that male-specific coliphage had a stronger association with illness than enterococci in marine waters with human fecal contamination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: For individuals with AIDS, data exist relatively soon after diagnosis to allow estimation of "early" survival quantiles (e.g., the 0.10, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.30 quantiles, etc.). Many years of additional observation must elapse before median survival, a summary measure of survival, can be estimated accurately. In this study, a new approach to predict AIDS median survival is presented and its accuracy tested using AIDS surveillance data. Methods: The data consisted of 96,373 individuals who were reported to the HIV/AIDS Reporting System of the California Department of Health Services Office of AIDS as of December 31, 1996. We defined cohorts based on quarter year of diagnosis (e.g., the "931" cohort consists of individuals diagnosed with AIDS in the first quarter of 1993). We used early quantiles (estimated using the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted estimator) of the survival distribution to estimate median survival by assuming a linear relationship between the earlier quantiles and median survival. From this model, median survival was predicted for cohorts for which a median could not be estimated empirically from the available data. This prediction was compared with the actual medians observed when using updated survival data reported at least five years later. Results: Using the 0.15 quantile as the predictor and the data available as of December 31, 1996, we were able to predict the median survival of four cohorts (933, 934, 941, and 942) to be 34, 34, 31, and 29 months. Without this approach, there were insufficient data with which to make any estimate of median survival. The actual median survival of these four cohorts (using data as of December 31, 2001) was found to be 32, 40, 46, and 80 months, suggesting that the accuracy for this approach requires a minimum of three years to elapse from diagnosis to the time an accurate prediction can be made. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that early and accurate prediction of median survival time after AIDS diagnosis may be possible using early quantiles of the survival distribution. The methodology did not seem to work well during a period of significant change in survival as observed with highly active antiretroviral treatment, but results suggest that it may work well in a time of more gradual improvement in survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although immunocompromised persons may be at increased risk for gastrointestinal illnesses, no trials investigating drinking water treatment and gastrointestinal illness in such patients have been published. Earlier results from San Francisco suggested an association (OR 6.76) between tap water and cryptosporidiosis among HIV + persons. The authors conducted a randomized, triple-blinded intervention trial of home water treatment in San Francisco, California, from April 2000 to May 2001. Fifty HIV-positive patients were randomized to externally identical active (N = 24) or sham (N = 26) treatment devices. The active device contained a filter and UV light; the sham provided no treatment. Forty-five (90%) of the participants completed the study and were successfully blinded. Illness was measured using `highly credible gastrointestinal illness' (HCGI), a previously published measure. There were 31 episodes of HCGI during 1,797 person-days in the sham group and 16 episodes during 1,478 person-days in the active group. The adjusted relative risk was 3.34 (95% Cl: 0.99-11.21) times greater in those with the sham device. The magnitude of the point estimate of the risk, its consistency with recently published observational data, and its relevance for drinking water choices by immunocompromised individuals support the need for larger trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cryptosporidiosis, caused by Cryptosporidium, is an enteric illness that has received much attention as an infection of immunocompromised persons as well as in community outbreaks (frequently waterborne). There are, however, no studies of the risk factors for sporadic community-acquired cryptosporidiosis in the immunocompetent US population. We undertook a case-control study in the San Francisco Bay Area as part of a national study sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ascertain the major routes of transmission for endemic cryptosporidiosis, with an emphasis on evaluating risk from drinking water. Methods: Cases were recruited from a population-based, active surveillance system and age-matched controls were recruited using sequential random-digit dialing. Cases (n = 26) and controls (n = 62) were interviewed by telephone using a standardized questionnaire that included information about the following exposures: drinking water, recreational water, food items, travel, animal contact, and person-to-person fecal contact, and (for adults) sexual practices. Results: In multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses no significant association with drinking water was detected. The major risk factor for cryptosporidiosis in the San Francisco Bay Area was travel to another country (matched odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 24.1 [2.6, 220]). Conclusion: The results of this study do not support the hypothesis that drinking water is an independent risk factor for cryptosporidiosis among the immunocompetent population. These findings should be used to design larger studies of endemic cryptosporidiosis to elucidate the precise mechanisms of transmission, whether waterborne or other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]