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We used data from HIV/AIDS surveillance case registry to assess the timing of entry into medical care, level of care received after HIV diagnosis, and to identify characteristics associated with delayed and insufficient care among persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 2006 and 2007 in San Francisco. Laboratory reports of HIV viral load and CD4 test results were used as a marker for receipt of medical care. The time from HIV diagnosis to entry into care was estimated using Kaplan-Meier product limit method and independent predictors of delayed entry into care were determined using the proportional hazards model. Insufficient care was defined as less than an average of two viral load/CD4 tests per person-year of follow-up. Predictors of insufficient care were evaluated using a logistic regression model. An estimated 85% of persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS entered care within three months after HIV diagnosis; the proportion increased to 95% within 12 months after diagnosis. Persons who were born outside of the USA and those tested at the public counseling and testing sites were more likely to delay care. Nineteen percent of persons were determined to have received insufficient care. Younger persons and those diagnosed at a hospital were more likely to receive insufficient care. A high proportion of persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in San Francisco established timely and adequate care after HIV diagnosis. However, delays for some individuals in entry into care and markers of insufficient care suggest that there remains a need to improve access to and sustainability of HIV-specific medical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors investigated quarterly trends in survival after the diagnosis of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia for 19,607 patients in California in the decade from January 1, 1983, through December 31, 1992. Subjects included all cases for whom P. carinii pneumonia was the initial (and only) acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining diagnosis as reported to the California human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS surveillance registry. There was a period of rapidly improving survival from approximately June 1986 until April 1988, coincident with the widespread Introduction of antiretroviral therapy (zidovudine) and the Institution of P. carinii pneumonia prophylaxis (with cotrimoxazole and pentamidine). There was no evidence, however, of meaningful improvements in survival for these patients after that period. The association of several covariates (risk transmission group, gender, race/ethnicity, certainty of P. carinii pneumonia diagnosis, age, region of residence, availability of CD4 count, and level of CD4 count) were also studied both by proportional hazards regression and by recursive partitioning (i.e., tree-based) survival analysis. The availability of a CD4 count (regardless of its level) was the single factor most strongly associated with survival (median survival 36 months among those with and 14 months among those without reported CD4 counts, p <0.05). Data from this large, population-based surveillance registry of AIDS in California suggest that, despite earlier improvements in survival after the diagnosis of P. carinii pneumonia, the long-term survival of these patients remains poor (39% alive 2 years after diagnosis) and that no improvement in survival has occurred since 1988. Am J Epidemiol 1997;146:115–27. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: For individuals with AIDS, data exist relatively soon after diagnosis to allow estimation of "early" survival quantiles (e.g., the 0.10, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.30 quantiles, etc.). Many years of additional observation must elapse before median survival, a summary measure of survival, can be estimated accurately. In this study, a new approach to predict AIDS median survival is presented and its accuracy tested using AIDS surveillance data., Methods: The data consisted of 96,373 individuals who were reported to the HIV/AIDS Reporting System of the California Department of Health Services Office of AIDS as of December 31, 1996. We defined cohorts based on quarter year of diagnosis (e.g., the "931" cohort consists of individuals diagnosed with AIDS in the first quarter of 1993). We used early quantiles (estimated using the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted estimator) of the survival distribution to estimate median survival by assuming a linear relationship between the earlier quantiles and median survival. From this model, median survival was predicted for cohorts for which a median could not be estimated empirically from the available data. This prediction was compared with the actual medians observed when using updated survival data reported at least five years later., Results: Using the 0.15 quantile as the predictor and the data available as of December 31, 1996, we were able to predict the median survival of four cohorts (933, 934, 941, and 942) to be 34, 34, 31, and 29 months. Without this approach, there were insufficient data with which to make any estimate of median survival. The actual median survival of these four cohorts (using data as of December 31, 2001) was found to be 32, 40, 46, and 80 months, suggesting that the accuracy for this approach requires a minimum of three years to elapse from diagnosis to the time an accurate prediction can be made., Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that early and accurate prediction of median survival time after AIDS diagnosis may be possible using early quantiles of the survival distribution. The methodology did not seem to work well during a period of significant change in survival as observed with highly active antiretroviral treatment, but results suggest that it may work well in a time of more gradual improvement in survival.