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After severe economic crises in the mid-nineties Bulgaria and Romania managed to improve their economic performance in the last decade. Consequently, the two new EU members became attractive investment targets for foreign direct investment and economic integration with the EU rose. However, these transition economies struggle with a high external debt stock and soaring current account deficits that raise concerns about the probability of a currency and thus monetary crisis. Based on the findings of Fink (1993), Kaminsiki, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminski (2006) we calibrate a model that uses a medium-size set of macroeconomic indicators to assess the country risk of Bulgaria and Romania. By assuming constant elasticises for the years to come we can highlight, whether the current economic development could lead to an aggravating situation, which in the end might lead to a currency crisis with severe implications for future monetary integration in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]