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This paper investigates the intersection of income and race in structuring access to higher education among students that participate in a national high-stakes exam in Brazil. Our objectives are (1) to estimate the probability of students coming from different income strata, racial groups, and performance levels to access higher education and (2) to decompose income and racial effects into direct (net of educational performance) and indirect effects (through educational performance). Our data comes from a panel of high school graduates tracked between 2012 and 2017 and allow us to describe the following findings. Firstly, the probability of entering higher education is always higher among candidates from higher income strata. Second, there is a convergence in admission probabilities across the performance scale. Third, the admission curve across a performance scale is much steeper among applicants from low-income strata compared to richer students. In all of these results, students self-identified as black, brown, or indigenous (BBI) are less likely to transition to higher education than whites, even though they are in the same income and performance strata. We suggest that students from privileged socioeconomic backgrounds benefit from alternative entry strategies, such as paying tuition at less competitive private colleges. For students from low-income strata, the main alternative for entering higher education is through high academic performance. By decomposing racial effects, we show the cumulative effect of racial stratification; the gap between white and BBI students is both related to higher propensity of transitioning to higher education and higher educational performance.

The objective of this article is to discuss the development of statistical and probabilistic reasoning in childhood as a result of an interdisciplinary project, involving the fields of mathematics, statistics, and life sciences. This is a case study with three 10-year-old students from a Brazilian school. The children's oral and written narratives are used as a methodological path. It is an investigation process that examines human actions and considers social practices, subjective experience, identity, beliefs, emotions, values, context, and complexity. The results show that an interdisciplinary study involving life sciences, mathematics and statistics promoted the development of statistical and probabilistic reasoning, appropriate to the age group, enabling the children to positively rescale their eating habits.

In this article, we first analyze the situation of statistics education in Brazil, within an international context of interest for this discipline. Secondly, we aim to answer the following research question: How has doctoral research in statistics, probability, and combinatorics education evolved in Brazil? For this purpose, we analyzed the Brazilian doctoral research production from 1994 to 2021. We identified 102 completed dissertations in doctoral programs over the last 28 years. Within this research context, we analyzed the graduate programs, advisors, research themes, grade levels and participants studied, theoretical frameworks, and the data analysis methodologies employed. Even though doctoral research has developed slowly and irregularly, there has been an increase in the number of studies, driven by the growth of graduate degrees offered in the last few years.

This study aims to analyse the reasoning that children and adults with the same school level use to assess and justify the fairness of games, considering aspects of probability such as randomness, sample space, and comparison of probabilities. Data collection included a Piagetian clinical interview based on games of chance. The results showed that the participants' judgments about the fairness of the games depends mainly on the understanding about independence of events, analysis of the sample space, and perception of proportionality when comparing probabilities, and that they have misunderstandings about these ideas. The similar low performance of adults and children on probabilistic reasoning, indicates that the maturity and experience of these adults were not enough to properly develop probabilistic reasoning and to instrumentalize it to assess the fairness of a game consistently. Thus, teaching interventions to expand and consolidate students' learning in the field of probability are recommended and the activities presented in this study may serve as a basis for such interventions.

A simple analysis of the learners' academic status at different levels of education shows that these learners have poor performance in probability and statistics subject and they have negative attitude to this subject. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the attitude and academic achievement of 134 students of three classes of a compulsory subject of the fourth period aimed at probabilistic and statistical content, at a federal university, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, at the end of 2017. We used the Auzmendi Scale (1992) that considers attitudes towards mathematics and statistics, at the same time, being composed of five basic factors (utility, anxiety, trust, pleasure and motivation). Some of the results indicate that there is an indication that students lack confidence in solving statistical and probabilistic problems, noting that there is no great anxiety about Probability and Statistics, however, they do not feel confident about solving problems probabilistic and statistical. And they present initial motivation and this fact generates better results in the first evaluation of the discipline that deals with basic concepts of Combinatorial Analysis and Probability.

The present study compares the fit of two- and three-parameter logistic (2PL and 3PL) models of item response theory in the performance of preschool children on the Raven's Colored Progressive Matrices. The test of Raven is widely used for evaluating nonverbal intelligence of factor g. Studies comparing models with real data are scarce on the literature and this is the first to compare models of two and three parameters for the test of Raven, evaluating the informational gain of considering guessing probability. Participants were 582 Brazilian's preschool children (M[subscript age] = 57 months; SD = 7 months; 46% female) who responded individually to the instrument. The model fit indices suggested that the 2PL fit better to the data. The difficulty and ability parameters were similar between the models, with almost perfect correlations. Differences were observed in terms of discrimination and test information. The principle of parsimony must be called for comparing models.

This article aims to investigate the teaching of chance in the context of tactile models (TM) from the perspective of the Theory of Register of Semiotic Representations. In this qualitative research, we sought to identify the different types of semiotic registers and transformations (treatment and conversion), in the solutions of the tasks of the Jefferson's Random Walks Teaching Sequence of children in early childhood education (aged 5 years). We found the presence of different registers, most frequently mother tongue and figurative language, and of conversions. Finally, the TM proved versatile, particularly in addressing the concept of chance, for the mobilization of different semiotic registers and transformations, which can encourage teachers to use this material to work concepts in the school context.

Conceptual appropriation is central to the teaching-learning and development processes. The intellectual stage is expressed by writing, verbalization and the use of the object under construction, among other means of expression. This paper discusses the conceptual appropriation by means of the creation of collaborative situations in which the argumentative language mediates the construction of knowledge. Supported by Vygotsky's cultural-historical theory, Discussion Circle is an activity that consists of presenting some conceptual questions for the class to discuss in small groups initially, and then in a larger group, at a general meeting. Hence, we present the central ideas and theoretical support for the development of this activity and comment on a practice that took place during a course of Basic Statistics, part of the Teaching Program in Mathematics. Results indicate the conceptual development of students, which allows for the improvement of elementary school mathematics' teacher education in terms of statistics studies, which is a strategic matter of importance for the broadening of society's knowledge about this area.

Research on statistical education in childhood is recent in Brazil. The research has been mainly driven by curriculum reforms and the creation of research groups that investigate teaching, learning, and teacher education practices. The present paper emerges from this scenario and has the aim of investigating practices of creative insubordination of teachers proposing and acting on problems of statistical and probabilistic literacy under a problematizing perspective. The intention is to ask: 'What evidence of statistical and probabilistic learning emerges when teacher-researchers participating in collaborative groups narrate their actions of creative insubordination?' The term 'creative insubordination' refers to professionals acting counter to rules and directives when seeking to protect those to whom they provide services and in order to provide better conditions. In the case of Brazilian teachers, it is argued that they can be creatively insubordinate by proposing problems in statistics and probability, listening to the children and encouraging them to problematize and create strategies and procedures for solving statistical problems, in a perspective that encompasses their social practices. From the analysis emerged a common aspect of the teachers' practices that refers to the fact that they provide an investigative atmosphere in which children discuss, question and reflect, proposing creative solutions to statistical problems. Children learn to defend their views and rights. Thus, the statistical and probabilistic learning becomes more significant for children.

Previous research accounting for pronoun resolution as a problem of probabilistic inference has not explored the phenomenon of adaptation, whereby the processor constantly tracks and adapts, rationally, to changes in a statistical environment. We investigate whether Brazilian (BP) and European Portuguese (EP) speakers adapt to variations in the probability of occurrence of ambiguous overt and null pronouns, in two experiments assessing resolution toward subject and object referents. For each variety (BP, EP), participants were faced with either the same number of null and overt pronouns (equal distribution), or with an environment with fewer overt (than null) pronouns (unequal distribution). We find that the preference for interpreting overt pronouns as referring back to an object referent (object-biased interpretation) is higher when there are fewer overt pronouns (i.e., in the unequal, relative to the equal distribution condition). This is especially the case for BP, a variety with higher prior frequency and smaller object-biased interpretation of overt pronouns, suggesting that participants adapted incrementally and integrated prior statistical knowledge with the knowledge obtained in the experiment. We hypothesize that comprehenders adapted rationally, with the goal of maintaining, across variations in pronoun probability, the likelihood of subject and object referents. Our findings unify insights from research in pronoun resolution and in adaptation, and add to previous studies in both topics: They provide evidence for the influence of pronoun probability in pronoun resolution, and for an adaptation process whereby the language processor not only tracks statistical information, but uses it to make interpretational inferences.

This paper aimed to highlight the process of therapist direct contingent responding to shape client behavior in two Child Behavior Analytic Therapy (CBAT) cases using transitional probabilities. The Functional Analytic Psychotherapy Rating Scale (FAPRS) was used to code client behaviors and the Multidimensional System for Coding Behaviors in Therapist-Client Interaction (SiMCCIT) was used to code therapist behavior. Measures of behavior duration and transitional probability were taken from nine sample sessions for Client 1 and 10 sample sessions for Client 2. The first treatment was successful and lasted 18 sessions, while the second treatment was unsuccessful. In the first case, coding results showed that problem behaviors (CRB1) decreased, and improvement behaviors (CRB2) increased. In the second case, CRB1 predominated through seven sessions, and CRB2 did not show stability. Transitional probabilities indicated regularities in therapist responding to the client's clinically relevant behaviors, especially with approval after CRB2. It is concluded that contingent responding with approval functioned to shape client improvements in the first case, but not in the second case. (Contains 2 tables, 2 figures, and 1 footnote.)

This article presents a study on the variables promoting student retention in distance undergraduate courses at Federal University of Pará, aiming to help school managers minimize student attrition and maximize retention until graduation. The theoretical background is based on Rovai's Composite Model and the methodological approach is conditional probability analysis using the Bayesian Networks graphical model. Network modeling has shown that among internal factors after admission to the course (as defined in the Composite Model) face-to-face tutorial sessions need to be better planned and executed, learning materials are still not adequate to online course specificities and the support structure needs to be remodeled.

This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded and complemented by the students' written notes. The analysis was carried out under a historical-cultural perspective. We have identified how some notions about frequency, chances, possibility and probability are intuitive and how others are mistaken. Subjectivist probabilistic thinking is present in students' ideas, and this indicates the need to develop teaching approaches that confront and overcome these ideas.

The objective of this paper is to discuss how blind students learn basic concepts of probability using the tactile model proposed by Vita (2012). Among the activities were part of the teaching sequence "Jefferson's Random Walk", in which students built a tree diagram (using plastic trays, foam cards, and toys), and pictograms in 3D (using the toys) to represent the possible ways in which Jefferson can visit his five friends and the expected frequencies of visits. The analysis of students' answers was based on the SOLO taxonomy, and developed from initial prestructural responses to final responses that were classified at the relational level. The study suggests adaptations of materials and teaching methods for helping blind students to learn about probability.

The objective of this paper is to discuss aspects of high school students' learning of probability in a context where they are supported by the statistical software R. We report on the application of a teaching experiment, constructed using the perspective of Gal's probabilistic literacy and Papert's constructionism. The results show improvement in students' learning of basic concepts, such as: random experiment, estimation of probabilities, and calculation of probabilities using a tree diagram. The use of R allowed students to extend their reasoning beyond that developed from paper-and-pencil approaches, since it made it possible for them to work with a larger number of simulations, and go beyond the standard equiprobability assumption in coin tosses.

This paper presents discussions on stochastic education in early childhood, based on two doctoral research projects carried out with groups of preschool teachers from public schools in the Brazilian cities of Suzano and São Paulo who were participating in a continuing education program. The objective is to reflect on the analysis of two didactic situations related to the learning of statistics in mathematics classes. The results show evidence of the mathematics learning of the teachers who teach mathematics in early childhood. They also highlight the mathematical and statistical relations that children are able to establish when carrying out stochastic activities included in their childhood context.

This article analyzes off-farm work among subsistence-level farmers in the Santarem region of the Brazilian Amazon. We build on the literature on rural livelihoods in the Global South by exploring how the opportunity to work off the farm is embedded in social relationships. We additionally differentiate our analysis by type of off-farm work, and examine how other characteristics such as human capital, the available labor supply, and access to infrastructure vary by work outcome. In general, the factors that contribute to more secure, relatively higher-paying work differ from those important in understanding patterns of lower-paying, daily wage work. We find that on-farm social capital, measured as the presence of a co-resident on the property who works off the farm, increases an individual's probability of working off the farm, but has a stronger effect for lower-wage work. We also find that the farm owner's relationship to households on the farm property plays a significant role in predicting patterns of off-farm work. These findings suggest that social capital plays an important role in providing access to employment and therefore to cash income, but that farm-level social capital does not necessarily provide pathways to stable or high-paying jobs outside agriculture. (Contains 3 tables, 3 figures and 16 footnotes.)

This paper examines the determinants of students' performance on the entrance test at Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Brazil. Particular attention is paid to the importance of family background variables, such as parents' education and family income, on students' performance and how they relate to the probability of attending public schools and private tutoring classes. Results suggest that parents' education and study environment are key determinants of students' achievements. Also, they are positively related to the probability of attending private schools and private tutoring classes, which are both estimated to have a positive effect on test scores. Finally, the quantile regression estimation shows that the effect of parents' education and family income varies across the conditional score distribution. These results highlight the need for developing policies that seek to improve the equality of opportunities in access to higher education. They are of special importance for a developing country like Brazil, in which not only the level of inequality is among the highest in the world but also the level of social intergenerational mobility is among the lowest compared to international standards. (Contains 4 tables, 2 figures and 17 notes.)

The aim of this article is to compare the schooling levels of individuals with the demands of the Brazilian labour market. The results demonstrate the high probability of compatibility between occupation and schooling levels. But high propensities for under-education were identified associated with skin colour and position in family. The results are consistent with Brazilian social inequality. In conclusion, although there is a dearth of qualified labour in specific segments, the widespread existence of compatibility between workers' occupations and their schooling levels suggests that companies have adapted themselves to the educational deficiencies of their workers. (Contains 6 tables and 1 note.)

A new form of composition of the indicators employed to generate the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) is presented here. This form of composition is based on the assumption that random errors affect the measurement of each indicator. This assumption allows for replacing the vector of evaluations according to each indicator by vectors of probabilities of being the best or the worst according to such attribute. The probabilistic composition of such probabilities of preference according to each indicator into probabilities of being the best or the worst according to all of them generates indices that may unveil, on one hand, performances to be followed and, on the other hand, extreme conditions that an additive composition would hide. Differences between the results of application of the diverse forms of composition are examined in the case of the HDI and in the case of the districts version of the HDI employed to compare Brazilian municipalities. It is verified that the smallest correlation between the education enrolment rate and the other indicators in the Brazilian case enlarges such differences.

Objective: Paternity is uncertain, so if paternal feelings evolved to promote fitness, we might expect them to vary in response to variables indicative of paternity probability. We therefore hypothesized that the risk of lapses of paternal affection, including abusive assaults on children, will be exacerbated by cues of non-paternity. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 331 Brazilian mothers, interviewed about 1 focal child (age 1-12) residing with her and the putative father. Child physical abuse was assessed using the "Conflict Tactic Scales: Parent Child" (CTSPC). Two potential cues of (non) paternity were (1) whether the parents co-resided when the child was conceived, and (2) whether third parties allegedly commented on father-child resemblance. Data were analyzed through multiple logistic regressions. Results: Mothers reported child physical abuse by 15.9% (95% CI 4.6-27.1) of fathers who had not cohabited with them at conception, compared to 5.9% (95% CI 3.1-8.7) of those who had. The odds ratio for abuse by fathers who had not cohabited at conception in relation to those who had-adjusted for income, education, age, sex of child, whether child was first born, household size, time father spent with child, and alcohol abuse and drug use by father-was 4.3 (95% CI 1.4-13.8). Mothers reported abuse of 7.0% (95% CI 4.0-10.0) of children who purportedly resembled their fathers, versus 8.7% (95% CI 0.2-17.1) of those who did not. Conclusion: According to maternal reports, not having co-resided at conception quadrupled the chance of child physical abuse by currently co-residing Brazilian fathers. The reported prevalence of abuse was unrelated to reported allegations of father-child resemblance. (Contains 3 tables.)

The aim of this article is to compare the schooling levels of individuals with the demands of the Brazilian labour market. The results demonstrate the high probability of compatibility between occupation and schooling levels. But high propensities for under-education were identified associated with the skin colour and position in the family. The results are consistent with the Brazilian social inequality. In conclusion, although there is a dearth of qualified labour in specific segments, the widespread existence of compatibility between workers' occupations and their schooling levels suggests that companies have adapted themselves to the educational deficiencies of their workers. (Contains 4 tables and 1 note.)

In Brazil, young Black males are far more likely to experience criminal violence (e.g., homicide, police lethality and assault) than young White males. However, race might also affect the ex-post scenario; that is, Blacks and Whites may go to the police seeking solutions against criminal violence with different probabilities. In this paper, we identified and quantified the sources of the racial differential in accessing justice between Blacks and Whites in Brazil. Using microdata from the Brazilian Household Survey, we used the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to isolate the discriminatory component from social indicators correlated with access to justice. We found that structural attributes explain only part (around 60%) of the racial differential in accessing justice. A significant portion of the discrepancy (at least 40%) provides evidence of racial discrimination. In addition, the spatial dynamics revealed that the Northeast region of Brazil presents the most discriminatory scenario in the country, a region historically characterised by higher social inequalities and violent mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy generated by coal can contaminate the environment by releasing toxic elements, including metals. The human health risk assessment (HHRA) associated with geographic information system (GIS) tools can assist the management of contaminated areas, such as coal mining areas. The objective of the study was to carry out the assessment and spatialization of the risk to human health of potentially hazards elements (PHEs) in the soil for children and adults, from multiple exposure routes (oral, inhalation and dermal) in the Candiota mines, largest coal mining region of Brazil. The non-carcinogenic risks (HQ) of PHEs (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cr, Fe, Mn, Cd, As and Se) and carcinogenic risks of As were estimated and spatialized. The results revealed a risk for children exposure to Mn, with greatest contribution through dermal route. Mn (HQderm 72.41–96.09% and HQinh 40.84–82.52%) and Fe (HQo 43.90–81.44%) were the metals with greatest contribution to human health risk among studied population. As did not present carinogenic risk to adults. The spatial distribution of non-carcinogenic risk showed that Cr, As, Fe, Pb, Ni, Zn and Cu have higher HInc close to the coal mining areas, while Mn, Se and Cd have the highest HInc values in surrounding municipalities (Pinheiro Machado; Pedras Altas and Hulha Negra). The use of HHRA associated with GIS tools provides important elements for decision-making in the management of contaminated sites, indicating chemical elements, locations, routes of exposure and priority target populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: Globally, the counting of deaths based on gender identity and sexual orientation has been a challenge for health systems. In most cases, non-governmental organizations have dedicated themselves to this work. Despite these efforts in generating information, the scarcity of official data presents significant limitations in policy formulation and actions guided by population needs. Therefore, this manuscript aims to evaluate the accuracy, potential, and limits of probabilistic data relationships to yield information on deaths according to gender identity and sexual orientation in the State of Rio de Janeiro., Methods: This study evaluated the accuracy of the probabilistic record linkage to obtain information on deaths according to gender and sexual orientation. Data from two information systems were used from June 15, 2015 to December 31, 2020. We constructed nine probabilistic data relationship strategies and identified the performance and cutoff points of the best strategy., Results: The best data blocking strategy was established through logical blocks with the first and last names, birthdate, and mother's name in the pairing strategy. With a population base of 80,178 records, 1556 deaths were retrieved. With an area under the curve of 0.979, this strategy presented 93.26% accuracy, 98.46% sensitivity, and 90.04% specificity for the cutoff point ≥ 17.9 of the data relationship score. The adoption of the cutoff point optimized the manual review phase, identifying 2259 (90.04%) of the 2509 false pairs and identifying 1532 (98.46%) of the 1556 true pairs., Conclusion: With the identification of possible strategies for determining probabilistic data relationships, the retrieval of information on mortality according to sexual and gender markers has become feasible. Based on information from the daily routine of health services, the formulation of public policies that consider the LGBTQ + population more closely reflects the reality experienced by these population groups., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In this study, the probability of occurrence of fumonisins in corn in the states of greatest production in Brazil was determined. The data were analyzed through quantitative risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that there is a strong correlation between fumonisins contamination levels and the geographical region due to the influence of climatic characteristics, with temperature having the main influence. The Southern states presented higher risks of occurrence and concentration levels of fumonisins in corn due to the temperate climate with lower average temperature and higher relative humidity and precipitation indices. Cultivation in the best season indicates a significant reduction in the production of fumonisins when this period was evaluated, with average concentration levels up to 42% lower. The generated data are important for regulatory agencies and the agricultural sector, which needs to be aware that the chance of success in grain production depends on efficient planning of the growing season, mainly concerning the climatic conditions to which it is subject to minimize the risks. • Risk of fumonisins in corn was assessed using quantitative risk assessment; • Temperature plays a critical role in fumonisin incidence and level in corn; • Reduction in fumonisin of up to 42% when cultivation at the best time was assessed; • Strong correlation between fumonisins levels and the geographical region was found; • Low temperatures and high humidity increased the probability of fumonisin in corn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The regulation of working hours is governed by legal standards in formal employment. While the association between long working hours and various health outcomes has been extensively studied, there is limited evidence regarding Brazil. The objective of this study was to investigate the association among working hours, employment status, and self-rated health (SRH), taking into account differences between men and women in a national representative sample of the working population in Brazil., Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among a representative sample of 33,713 workers in Brazil to assess self-rated health (SRH). We examined the associations between working hours and employment status, categorizing working hours as standard (40-44 h per week) or long (> 44 h per week), and employment status as formal or informal. Logistic regression models were employed, adjusting for sociodemographic, occupational characteristics, and health behaviors. Probabilities of negative SRH were calculated for men and women in different exposure profiles. Results were stratified by gender, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were applied to the findings., Results: The prevalence of long working hours was higher among informal workers for both men and women. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) results revealed that informal employment (AORwomen = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.13-2.07 and AORmen = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.22-1.96) and long working hours (AORwomen = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43 and AORmen = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.00-1.30) were independently associated with negative SRH. Significant interactions between long working hours and informal employment were observed. Among individuals with the same exposure profile, women who engaged in long working hours had a higher probability of reporting negative SRH compared to men., Conclusions: The results of this study are in line with the literature, as differences between men and women in the likelihood of negative self-rated health were observed. The adverse health effects underscore the importance of implementing intersectoral actions to inform the revision of regulations concerning weekly working hours and the expansion of informal employment in low- and middle-income countries., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background. The authors assessed whether dentists' diagnostic inferences differ when test accuracy information is communicated using natural frequencies versus conditional probabilities. Methods. A parallel, randomized controlled trial with dentists was carried out in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The dentists received a question on the probability of a patient having interproximal caries, given a positive bite-wing radiograph. This question was asked using information that was formulated into either natural frequencies or conditional probabilities. Results. Only 14 (13.9%) of the dentists gave the correct answer; 13 in the natural frequencies group, and 1 in the conditional probabilities group (P < .001). There were 7 nearly correct answers in the natural frequencies group and none in the conditional probabilities group (P ¼ .005). Conclusions. Representing diagnostic test accuracy in natural frequencies substantially helped dentists make diagnostic inferences. Nearly twice as many dentists overestimated the presence of interproximal caries when given information in conditional probabilities. Practical Implications. Our study findings show information shared using natural frequencies may be more accurately interpreted by dentists than that based on conditional probabilities. Patients will probably receive different standards of care depending on the format in which dentists receive diagnostic test accuracy information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aimed to present the heuristics and biases of Representativity and Disponibility, which, to a greater or lesser extent, may lead to misleading conclusions, and which are linked to the judgment and/or prediction of uncertainty scenarios. The teaching of probability and statistics in secondary education in Brazil has turned to the mathematical form of theory, without discussions and practical situations that would allow a consistent view of theory, facilitates the appearance of biases. The analysis consisted of the application of a pre-test, followed by discussions and activities in the area of probability and statistics, ending with a post-test, to analyze the reasoning of high school students against standards that can lead to errors of judgment. The heuristic resistance was verified more expressively in one type and moderately in another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the second most common protozoosis that affects people around the world. The aim of this study is to understand how environmental and socioeconomic factors, as well as VL control and surveillance interventions, influence the spread and detection of VL cases in Pernambuco state (Brazil). A novel model was developed to analyze cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, enabling the quantification of the association of these variables with two processes: the probability of "invasion" (emergence of new cases) at municipalities by VL, and the probability of detecting cases not reported in municipalities that have already been invaded. Pernambuco state identified 1,410 cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, with an average of 128 cases per year and average incidence of 1.28/100 thousand people. These cases were distributed in 77.1% (142/184) of the municipalities, and 54.8% (773/1,410) of them were autochthonous. Our model reveals that the proportion of agriculture was positively associated with VL invasion probability. We also find that municipalities that are closer to notification centers and/or that have received technical training and support tend to have higher detection rates of VL cases. Taken together, these results suggest that a municipality with almost no agriculture and that received technical training, located close to a notification center, is unlikely to be invaded if no cases have ever been detected. On the other hand, a municipality that is far from the notification center, with no technical training, with a large agricultural area might have already been invaded but the surveillance system might have routinely failed to detect VL cases due to low detection probability. By disentangling the processes of invasion and detection, we were able to generate insights that are likely to be useful for the strategic allocation of VL prevention and control interventions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Machado et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The aim of this paper is to reveal the possibilities that some workshops offer for the learning of mathematics and demonstrate how the articulation of references from Situated Learning and Cultural Historical Activity Theory may illuminate the occurrence of mathematics learning. A workshop on probability, part of the integral educational project for the municipal schools of Belo Horizonte, is presented. Students were attending the 4th and 5th year of elementary school. The empirical data consisted of excerpts of the transcriptions of the interactions between the students extracted from field notes and audio and video recordings. As a result, it is stressed the potential of the theoretical articulation implemented to delineate signs of learning (equiprobability, event, impossible event) in classrooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study is to propose different probabilistic models for adjusting the trend component, since it significantly influences the quality of the spatio-temporal interpolation of rainfalls. We used the monthly total precipitation data of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) for the period of 31 years, 1989-2019. The SFRB occupies 8% of the whole Brazilian territory, mostly located in the Northeast Brazilian region. For the trend component, we propose the fitted GAMLSS models by comparing different probability distribution families, which in most cases include the characteristics of these data. The results indicate the existence of a spatio-temporal pattern of the residues obtained from the adjustment of the trend with zero adjusted Gamma distribution for the accumulated monthly precipitation. The adjustment revealed a spatial dependence of up to 873 km between the pluviometric stations and temporal autocorrelation of approximately 1.6 months. The methodology used in this study enabled us to create rainfall maps, interpolating unobserved locations in differences years. The projection of these maps to the SFRB is considered extremely important for planning and implementing activities related to water resources across the river basin.

Equine infectious anemia (EIA) is an infectious disease affecting equine in most countries and represents a notifiable disease with compulsory euthanasia of positive animals. The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of EIAV infected equines in herds of the state of Goiás (Central Brazil) and to evaluate the risk factors associated with the occurrence of the disease. Blood samples were collected from 1170 equids from 332 randomly selected farms divided into three different strata according to their herd characteristics. Also, an epidemiological questionnaire was applied during the visit to the farm. Of the 332 farms evaluated, 12 (3.1%; 95% CI: 1.24 - 6.00) had at least one positive equine for EIA, and of the 1170 evaluated equines, 14 (2%; 95% CI: 0.31-3.00) were positive in agar gel immunodiffusion. Multivariate analysis revealed that the use of a vaccination pistol (p < 0.001) and the presence of water bodies inside the farm (p < 0.01) were risk factors associated with the occurrence of EIA. Thus, the present study demonstrated a low but widespread prevalence of EIAV infected animals in the herds of Goiás state and that iatrogenic and environmental risk factors were associated with the occurrence of the disease., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Copyright of Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agricola e Ambiental - Agriambi is the property of Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agricola e Ambiental and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The recorded historical series of precipitation are usually available for short periods of time and with many failures. The use of mathematical modeling to simulate rainfall is a tool used to circumvent this problem and to simulate the operation of water systems in different scenarios. The present study applies mathematical modeling to the hourly pluviometric precipitation data simulation. A pluviographical data set from October 1980 to December 2007 was used in the study. Precipitation data sets were obtained through daily pluviometric digitalization from the Meteorologic Station of Epagri at Urussanga, in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil (latitude 28° 31' S and longitude 48° 19' W). To simulate the hourly rain series, the stochastic model was modified based on the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model with six parameters. Those parameters were fitted by minimizing a function related to the analytical expressions that define the average, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient at lag 1 and the probability of a dry period related to the estimated values from the observed data. Ten series were simulated for 100 years of data. Data analyses and results showed that fitting Bartlett-Lewis model parameters makes it possible to simulate hourly rainfall while preserving precipitation statistical properties at several temporal aggregation levels. In general, the probability of dry periods tended to be overestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article applies a transformation into probabilities of preference, to rank papers submitted to the XLI Brazilian Symposium of Operational Research. Some 42 papers were divided into sets according to their main topics of interest and measures for 12 attributes were considered, for each paper separately, and also for sets of papers on the same topic, based on the referees' evaluations. Four alternative forms of composition of the probabilistic preferences are illustrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of great importance to know the rain distribution in the region of Tangará da Serra (latitude 14°37′55″S, longitude 57°28′05″W and altitude 488 m), as it is an agricultural region, which makes such information essential for an adequate planning, maximization of agricultural potential and optimization of hydric resources. Thus, this work was aimed at evaluating the annual, monthly and ten-day pluviometric variability, and also quantifying the number of dry and rainy days and different levels of rain probability for the region. Pluviometric data provided by ′Agência Nacional de Águas′ (ANA) were used to analyze a period of 38 years (from January 1970 to December 2007). Precipitation behavior in Tangará da Serra has annual and monthly variations, constituting two well defined seasons - a dry one from May to September, and a rainy one from October to April. Annual variability during the analyzed period corresponds to the maximum value of 2,861, minimum of 1,404 and average of 1,830 mm, respectively. The incomplete gamma function adequately expresses precipitation probability in Tangará da Serra. Precipitation averages range from 40 to 50% probability for rainy months and from 30 to 40% for dry ones. According to the results, this type of research might help the elaboration and development of irrigation projects in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of depression and correlate clinical and demographic characteristics in pregnant women assisted by the public health system in the city of Pelotas, RS, Brazil. Method: We performed a cross-sectional study focused on pregnant women assisted by the public health service. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to screen for depression. Results: In a sample of 1,264 pregnant women aged 12-46 years, 21.1% (n = 255) presented a depressive episode during pregnancy. The presence of depression was associated with older age, lower education, lack of a cohabiting partner, not being primiparous, planned pregnancy, abortion thoughts, psychological or psychiatric treatment, smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy, and stressful events. Conclusion: Pregnant women assisted by the Brazilian public health system presented a high prevalence of depression. Psychiatric history, lack of support, and stressful events increase the probability of antenatal depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Electrónica de Enseñanza de las Ciencias is the property of Revista Electronica de Ensenanza de las Ciencias and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Contingent valuation has become one of the dominant methods for valuing nonmarketed environmental goods, as well as for damage assessment due to natural hazards. In this study, the method is applied for evaluating the household willingness to pay for a flood control project in an impoverished periphery of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Theoretical validity is analyzed via a binary logistic regression, which describes the impact of sociodemographic, dwelling characteristics, and flood related variables on the willingness to pay for the project. Analysis of content validity indicates a series of characteristics—uncertainty, novelty, lack of well-differentiated values, institutional setting, and entitlement structure—which appear to drastically limit the use of contingent valuation for flood control projects in low income areas of developing countries. The study concludes that the method, in it’s current formulation, is not appropriate for use in policy decisions about flood control investments in areas described by a concentration of low income households in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about soft tissue sarcomas (STS) in Brazil, once the federal statistics regarding estimates on incidence and mortality of the most common cancers that affect the Brazilian population currently do not include STS. This study aims to perform a broad evaluation and description of the epidemiological profile, access to treatment and main clinical outcomes of the Brazilian STS patient. A population-based cohort study of 66,825 patients who underwent procedures related to STS treatment registered in the Brazilian public health system (Sistema Único de Saúde, SUS) databases. Median age was 57 years, 30% of them older than 65 years and 50.7% of the cohort was female. The majority, 50,383 patients (75.4%), was diagnosed between 2008 and 2015. Most prevalent anatomic sites were upper and lower limbs (12.6%) and the registry of sarcomas without a specific location comprehended 29.7% of the cohort. The majority of patients resided in the Northeast (40.2% of the patients). Surgery was the first treatment modality in 77.7% of the cases. For survival analysis, only patients with stage and histological grade information were included. The 1-, 5- and 10-year survival rate of the patients was, respectively, 75.4% (95% CI = 74.1-76.7%), 43.4% (95% CI = 41.5-45.5%) and 18.6% (95% CI = 14.8-23.3%)., (© 2021. The Author(s).)