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Background: Understanding epidemiological variables affecting gametocyte carriage and density is essential to design interventions that most effectively reduce malaria human-to-mosquito transmission., Methodology/principal Findings: Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasites and gametocytes were quantified by qPCR and RT-qPCR assays using the same methodologies in 5 cross-sectional surveys involving 16,493 individuals in Brazil, Thailand, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands. The proportion of infections with detectable gametocytes per survey ranged from 44-94% for P. falciparum and from 23-72% for P. vivax. Blood-stage parasite density was the most important predictor of the probability to detect gametocytes. In moderate transmission settings (prevalence by qPCR>5%), parasite density decreased with age and the majority of gametocyte carriers were children. In low transmission settings (prevalence<5%), >65% of gametocyte carriers were adults. Per survey, 37-100% of all individuals positive for gametocytes by RT-qPCR were positive by light microscopy for asexual stages or gametocytes (overall: P. falciparum 178/348, P. vivax 235/398)., Conclusions/significance: Interventions to reduce human-to-mosquito malaria transmission in moderate-high endemicity settings will have the greatest impact when children are targeted. In contrast, all age groups need to be included in control activities in low endemicity settings to achieve elimination. Detection of infections by light microscopy is a valuable tool to identify asymptomatic blood stage infections that likely contribute most to ongoing transmission at the time of sampling., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Despite recent intensification of control measures, Plasmodium vivax poses a major challenge for malaria elimination efforts. Liver-stage hypnozoite parasites that cause relapsing infections can be cleared with primaquine; however, poor treatment adherence undermines drug effectiveness. Tafenoquine, a new single-dose treatment, offers an alternative option for preventing relapses and reducing transmission. In 2018, over 237,000 cases of malaria were reported to the Brazilian health system, of which 91.5% were due to P. vivax., Methods and Findings: We evaluated the impact of introducing tafenoquine into case management practices on population-level transmission dynamics using a mathematical model of P. vivax transmission. The model was calibrated to reflect the transmission dynamics of P. vivax endemic settings in Brazil in 2018, informed by nationwide malaria case reporting data. Parameters for treatment pathways with chloroquine, primaquine, and tafenoquine with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) testing were informed by clinical trial data and the literature. We assumed 71.3% efficacy for primaquine and tafenoquine, a 66.7% adherence rate to the 7-day primaquine regimen, a mean 5.5% G6PDd prevalence, and 8.1% low metaboliser prevalence. The introduction of tafenoquine is predicted to improve effective hypnozoite clearance among P. vivax cases and reduce population-level transmission over time, with heterogeneous levels of impact across different transmission settings. According to the model, while achieving elimination in only few settings in Brazil, tafenoquine rollout in 2021 is estimated to improve the mean effective radical cure rate from 42% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41%-44%) to 62% (95% UI 54%-68%) among clinical cases, leading to a predicted 38% (95% UI 7%-99%) reduction in transmission and over 214,000 cumulative averted cases between 2021 and 2025. Higher impact is predicted in settings with low transmission, low pre-existing primaquine adherence, and a high proportion of cases in working-aged males. High-transmission settings with a high proportion of cases in children would benefit from a safe high-efficacy tafenoquine dose for children. Our methodological limitations include not accounting for the role of imported cases from outside the transmission setting, relying on reported clinical cases as a measurement of community-level transmission, and implementing treatment efficacy as a binary condition., Conclusions: In our modelling study, we predicted that, provided there is concurrent rollout of G6PDd diagnostics, tafenoquine has the potential to reduce P. vivax transmission by improving effective radical cure through increased adherence and increased protection from new infections. While tafenoquine alone may not be sufficient for P. vivax elimination, its introduction will improve case management, prevent a substantial number of cases, and bring countries closer to achieving malaria elimination goals., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: “NN, MW, DV, and RL received funding from Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) to evaluate the impact of roll-out of tafenoquine in Brazil.”

A major gap in the Plasmodium vivax elimination toolkit is the identification of individuals carrying clinically silent and undetectable liver-stage parasites, called hypnozoites. This study developed a panel of serological exposure markers capable of classifying individuals with recent P. vivax infections who have a high likelihood of harboring hypnozoites. We measured IgG antibody responses to 342 P. vivax proteins in longitudinal clinical cohorts conducted in Thailand and Brazil and identified candidate serological markers of exposure. Candidate markers were validated using samples from year-long observational cohorts conducted in Thailand, Brazil and the Solomon Islands and antibody responses to eight P. vivax proteins classified P. vivax infections in the previous 9 months with 80% sensitivity and specificity. Mathematical models demonstrate that a serological testing and treatment strategy could reduce P. vivax prevalence by 59-69%. These eight antibody responses can serve as a biomarker, identifying individuals who should be targeted with anti-hypnozoite therapy.