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Understanding the functioning of natural metapopulations at relevant spatial and temporal scales is necessary to accurately feed both theoretical eco-evolutionary models and conservation plans. One key metric to describe the dynamics of metapopulations is dispersal rate. It can be estimated with either direct field estimates of individual movements or with indirect molecular methods, but the two approaches do not necessarily match. We present a field study in a large natural metapopulation of the butterfly Boloria eunomia in Belgium surveyed over three generations using synchronized demographic and genetic datasets with the aim to characterize its genetic structure, its dispersal dynamics, and its demographic stability. By comparing the census and effective population sizes, and the estimates of dispersal rates, we found evidence of stability at several levels: constant inter-generational ranking of population sizes without drastic historical changes, stable genetic structure and geographically-influenced dispersal movements. Interestingly, contemporary dispersal estimates matched between direct field and indirect genetic assessments. We discuss the eco-evolutionary mechanisms that could explain the described stability of the metapopulation, and suggest that destabilizing agents like inter-generational fluctuations in population sizes could be controlled by a long adaptive history of the species to its dynamic local environment. We finally propose methodological avenues to further improve the match between demographic and genetic estimates of dispersal.

The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is endangered in several parts of its distribution, including Belgium, where it occurs mainly in artificial habitats. We parameterized a general model for natterjack population viability analysis (PVA) and tested its sensitivity to changes in the values of basic parameters. Then we assessed the relative efficiency of various conservation measures in 2 situations: a small isolated population and a system of 4 populations connected by rare dispersal movements. We based the population viability analysis on a stage-structured model of natterjack population dynamics. We parameterized the model in the RAMAS GIS platform with vital rates obtained from our own field experience and from published studies. Simulated natterjack populations were highly sensitive to habitat quality (particularly pond drying), to dispersal from surrounding local populations, and to a lesser extent to values of fecundity and survival of terrestrial stages. Population trajectories were nearly insensitive to initial abundances, carrying capacities, and the frequency of extreme climatic conditions. The simulations showed that in habitats with highly ephemeral ponds, where premetamorphosis mortality was high, natterjack populations nearly always had a very high extinction risk. We also illustrated how low dispersal rates (<1 dispersing individual/generation) efficiently rescued declining local populations. Such source-sink dynamics demonstrate that the identification and management of source populations should be a high priority.

Like other pond-breeding amphibians, the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) typically presents a patchy distribution. Because the species experiences high probabilities of local population extinction, its persistence within landscapes relies on both local and landscape-scale processes [dispersal allowing the (re)colonization of habitat patches]. However, the structure and composition of the matrix surrounding local populations can alter the dispersal rates between populations. As shown previously (Landscape Ecol 19:829-842, 2004), the locomotor performances of individuals at the dispersal stage depend on the nature of the component crossed: some landscape components offer high resistance to movement (high resistance or high viscosity components) whereas others allow high efficiency of movement (low resistance components). We now examine the ability of individuals to discriminate between landscape components and select low-resistance components. Our experimental study investigates the ways in which young natterjack toads choose from among landscape components common to southern Belgium. Toadlets (the dispersal stage) were experimentally confronted with boundaries between surrogates of sandy soils, roads, forests, agricultural fields and intensive pastures. Our results show: 1 the ability of toadlets to react to boundaries between landscape components, 2 differences in permeability among boundaries, and 3 our inability to predict correctly the permeability of the boundaries from the patch-specific resistance assessed previously. Toadlets showed a preference for bare environments and forests, whereas they avoided the use of agricultural environments. This pattern could not be explained in terms of patch-specific resistance only, and is discussed in terms of mortality risks and resource availability in the various landscape components, with particular attention to repercussions on conservation strategies.

Functional connectivity is a key factor for the persistence of many specialist species in fragmented landscapes. However, connectivity estimates have rarely been validated by the observation of dispersal movements. In this study, we estimated functional connectivity of a real landscape by modelling dispersal for the endangered natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) using cost distance. Cost distance allows the evaluation of 'effective distances', which are distances corrected for the costs involved in moving between habitat patches in spatially explicit landscapes. We parameterized cost-distance models using the results of our previous experimental investigation of natterjack's movement behaviour. These model predictions (connectivity estimates from the GIS study) were then confronted to genetic-based dispersal rates between natterjack populations in the same landscape using Mantel tests. Dispersal rates between the populations were inferred from variation at six microsatellite loci. Based on these results, we conclude that matrix structure has a strong effect on dispersal rates. Moreover, we found that cost distances generated by habitat preferences explained dispersal rates better than did the Euclidian distances, or the connectivity estimate based on patch-specific resistances (patch viscosity). This study is a clear example of how landscape genetics can validate operational functional connectivity estimates.

Populations of the bog fritillary butterfly Proclossiana eunomia (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae) occur in patchy habitat in central and western Europe. P. eunomia is a vulnerable species in the Belgian Ardennes and the number of occupied sites has significantly decreased in this region since the 1960s. RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers were used to study the consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation on the genetic population structure of this species. Gene diversity was lower in populations with smaller population sizes. Genetic subdivision was high (Fst=0.0887) considering the small spatial scale of this study (150 km2). The most geographically isolated population was also the most genetically differentiated one. The genetic population structure and genetic differentiation detected in this study were explained by (1) differences in altitude of the sampled locations and, (2) lower dispersal propensity and dispersal rate in fragmented landscapes versus continuous landscapes. Results from the RAPD analyses were compared with a previous allozyme based study on the same populations. The results of this study suggest that increased fragmentation has lead to a greater genetic differentiation between remaining P. eunomia populations.

Comparison of dispersal rates of the bog fritillary butterfly between continuous and fragmented landscapes indicates that between patch dispersal is significantly lower in the fragmented landscape, while population densities are of the same order of magnitude. Analyses of the dynamics of the suitable habitat for the butterfly in the fragmented landscape reveal a severe, non linear increase in spatial isolation of patches over a time period of 30 years (i.e. 30 butterfly generations), but simulations of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics using a structured population model show that the lower dispersal rates in the fragmented landscape are far above the critical threshold leading to metapopulation extinction. These results indicate that changes in individual behaviour leading to the decrease of dispersal rates in the fragmented landscape were rapidly selected for when patch spatial isolation increased. The evidence of such an adaptive answer to habitat fragmentation suggests that dispersal mortality is a key factor for metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes. We emphasise that landscape spatial configuration and patch isolation have to be taken into account in the debate about large-scale conservation strategies.