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Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additional estimation methods are required. Here, we develop such methods to analyze longitudinal incidence data on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its sequela, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in a highly endemic community in Bangladesh. Incorporating recent data on VL and PKDL infectiousness, we show that while VL cases drive transmission when incidence is high, the contribution of PKDL increases significantly as VL incidence declines (reaching 55% in this setting). Transmission is highly focal: 85% of mean distances from inferred infectors to their secondary VL cases were <300 m, and estimated average times from infector onset to secondary case infection were <4 mo for 88% of VL infectors, but up to 2.9 y for PKDL infectors. Estimated numbers of secondary cases per VL and PKDL case varied from 0 to 6 and were strongly correlated with the infector's duration of symptoms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prevention of PKDL could have reduced overall VL incidence by up to 25%. These results highlight the need for prompt detection and treatment of PKDL to achieve VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent and provide quantitative estimates to guide spatiotemporally targeted interventions against VL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterised by a high degree of spatial clustering at all scales, and this feature remains even with successful control measures. VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent by 2020, and incidence has been falling rapidly since 2011. Current control is based on early diagnosis and treatment of clinical cases, and blanket indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in endemic villages to kill the sandfly vectors. Spatially targeting active case detection and/or IRS to higher risk areas would greatly reduce costs of control, but its effectiveness as a control strategy is unknown. The effectiveness depends on two key unknowns: how quickly transmission risk decreases with distance from a VL case and how much asymptomatically infected individuals contribute to transmission., Methodology/principal Findings: To estimate these key parameters, a spatiotemporal transmission model for VL was developed and fitted to geo-located epidemiological data on 2494 individuals from a highly endemic village in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. A Bayesian inference framework that could account for the unknown infection times of the VL cases, and missing symptom onset and recovery times, was developed to perform the parameter estimation. The parameter estimates obtained suggest that, in a highly endemic setting, VL risk decreases relatively quickly with distance from a case-halving within 90m-and that VL cases contribute significantly more to transmission than asymptomatic individuals., Conclusions/significance: These results suggest that spatially-targeted interventions may be effective for limiting transmission. However, the extent to which spatial transmission patterns and the asymptomatic contribution vary with VL endemicity and over time is uncertain. In any event, interventions would need to be performed promptly and in a large radius (≥300m) around a new case to reduce transmission risk., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Countries in the Indian subcontinent have committed to reducing the incidence of kala-azar, a clinical manifestation of visceral leishmaniasis, to below 1 in 10,000 by 2020. We address the role of timing of use and accuracy of diagnostics in kala-azar control and elimination. We use empirical data on health-seeking behaviour and health-system performance from the Indian state of Bihar, Bangladesh and Nepal to parameterize a mathematical model. Diagnosis of cases is key to case management, control and surveillance. Treatment of cases prevents onward transmission, and we show that the differences in time to diagnosis in these three settings explain the observed differences in incidence. Shortening the time from health-care seeking to diagnosis is likely to lead to dramatic reductions in incidence in Bihar, bringing the incidence down to the levels seen in Bangladesh and Nepal. The results emphasize the importance of maintaining population and health-system awareness, particularly as transmission and disease incidence decline. We explore the possibility of diagnosing patients before the onset of clinical kala-azar (before 14 days fever), and show that this could have a marked impact on incidence, even for a moderately sensitive test. However, limited specificity (that results in false positives) is a major barrier to such a strategy. Diagnostic tests of high specificity used at an early stage of active infection, even if sensitivity is only moderate, could have a key role in the control of kala-azar, and prevent its resurgence when paired with the passive health-care system and tests of high sensitivity, such as the test for rK39 antibody response.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis has been targeted for elimination as a public health problem (less than 1 case per 10,000 people per year) in the Indian sub-continent by 2017. However, there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the natural history of the disease, in particular about the duration of asymptomatic infection and the proportion of asymptomatically infected individuals that develop clinical visceral leishmaniasis. Quantifying these aspects of the disease is key for guiding efforts to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis and maintaining elimination once it is reached., Methods: Data from a detailed epidemiological study in Bangladesh in 2002-2004 was analysed to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The role of diagnostics in determining the probability and rate of progression to clinical disease was estimated by fitting Cox proportional hazards models. A multi-state Markov model of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis was fitted to the data to estimate the asymptomatic infection period and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals going on to develop clinical symptoms., Results: At the time of the study, individuals were taking several months to be diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis, leading to many opportunities for ongoing transmission. The probability of progression to clinical disease was strongly associated with initial seropositivity and even more strongly with seroconversion, with most clinical symptoms developing within a year. The estimated average durations of asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection for our model of the natural history are 147 days (95 % CI 130-166) and 140 days (95 % CI 123-160), respectively, and are significantly longer than previously reported estimates. We estimate from the data that 14.7 % (95 % CI 12.6-20.0 %) of asymptomatic individuals develop clinical symptoms-a greater proportion than previously estimated., Conclusions: Extended periods of asymptomatic infection could be important for visceral leishmaniasis transmission, but this depends critically on the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals to sandflies. These estimates could be informed by similar analysis of other datasets. Our results highlight the importance of reducing times from onset of symptoms to diagnosis and treatment to reduce opportunities for transmission.