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We analyzed changes in mean sea level (MSL) for the period 1950–2015 using a regional ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Sensitivity experiments allowed us to separate external from local drivers and to investigate individual forcing agents triggering basin-internal spatial variations. The model reveals a basin-average MSL rise (MSLR) of 2.08 ± 0.49 mm yr−1, a value that is slightly larger than the simultaneous global average of 1.63 ± 0.32 mm yr−1. This MSLR is, however, spatially highly nonuniform with lower than average increases in the southwestern part (1.71 ± 0.51 mm yr−1) and higher than average rates in the northeastern parts (2.34 ± 1.05 mm yr−1). While 75% of the basin-average MSL externally enters the Baltic basin as a mass signal from the adjacent North Sea, intensified westerly winds and a poleward shift of low pressure systems explain the majority of the spatial variations in the rates. Minor contributions stem from local changes in baroclinicity leading to a basin-internal redistribution of water masses. An observed increase in local ocean temperature further adds to the total basinwide MSLR through thermal expansion but has little effect on the spatial pattern. To test the robustness of these results, we further assessed the sensitivity to six different atmospheric surface forcing reanalysis products over their common period from 1980 to 2005. The ensemble runs indicated that there are significant differences between individual ensemble members increasing the total trend uncertainty for the basin average by 0.22 mm yr−1 (95% confidence intervals). Locally the uncertainty varies from 0.05 mm yr−1 in the central part to up to 0.4 mm yr−1 along the coasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several methanogenic pathways in oxic surface waters were recently discovered, but their relevance in the natural environment is still unknown. Our study examines distinct methane (CH4) enrichments that repeatedly occur below the thermocline during the summer months in the central Baltic Sea. In agreement with previous studies in this region, we discovered differences in the methane distributions between the western and eastern Gotland Basin, pointing to in situ methane production below the thermocline in the latter (concentration of CH414.1±6.1 nM, δ13C CH4 -62.9 ‰). Through the use of a high-resolution hydrographic model of the Baltic Sea, we showed that methane below the thermocline can be transported by upwelling events towards the sea surface, thus contributing to the methane flux at the sea–air interface. To quantify zooplankton-associated methane production rates, we developed a sea-going methane stripping-oxidation line to determine methane release rates from copepods grazing on 14C -labelled phytoplankton. We found that (1) methane production increased with the number of copepods, (2) higher methane production rates were measured in incubations with Temora longicornis (125±49 fmol methane copepod -1 d -1) than in incubations with Acartia spp. (84±19 fmol CH4 copepod -1 d -1) dominated zooplankton communities, and (3) methane was only produced on a Rhodomonas sp. diet, and not on a cyanobacteria diet. Furthermore, copepod-specific methane production rates increased with incubation time. The latter finding suggests that methanogenic substrates for water-dwelling microbes are released by cell disruption during feeding, defecation, or diffusion from fecal pellets. In the field, particularly high methane concentrations coincided with stations showing a high abundance of DMSP/DMSO-rich Dinophyceae. Lipid biomarkers extracted from phytoplankton- and copepod-rich samples revealed that Dinophyceae are a major food source of the T. longicornis dominated zooplankton community, supporting the proposed link between copepod grazing, DMSP/DMSO release, and the build-up of subthermocline methane enrichments in the central Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several methanogenic pathways in oxic surface waters were recently discovered, but their relevance in the natural environment is still unknown. Our study examines distinct methane enrichments that repeatedly occur below the thermocline during the summer months in the central Baltic Sea. In agreement with previous studies in this region, we discovered differences in the methane distributions between the Western and Eastern Gotland Basin, pointing to in situ methane production below the thermocline in the latter (conc. CH4 14.1 ± 6.1 nM, δ13C CH4 -62.9 ‰). Through the use of a high resolution hydrographic model of the Baltic Sea, we showed that methane below the thermocline can be transported by upwelling events towards the sea surface thus contributing to the methane flux at the sea/air interface. To quantify zooplankton-associated methane production rates, we developed a sea-going methane stripping-oxidation line to determine methane release rates from copepods grazing on 14C-labelled phytoplankton. We found that: (1) methane production increased with the number of copepods, (2) higher methane production rates were measured in incubations with Temora longicornis (125 ± 49 fmol methane copepod-1 d-1) than incubations with Acartia spp. (84 ± 19 fmol CH4 copepod-1 d-1) dominated zooplankton communities, and (3) methane was only produced on a Rhodomonas sp. diet, but not on a cyanobacteria diet. Furthermore, copepod-specific methane production rates increased with incubation time. The latter finding suggests that methanogenic substrates for water-dwelling microbes are released by cell disruption during feeding, defecation, or diffusion from fecal pellets. In the field, particularly high methane concentrations coincided with stations showing a high abundance of DMSP-rich Dinophyceae. Lipid biomarkers extracted from phytoplankton- and copepod-rich samples revealed that Dinophyceae are a major food source of the T. longicornis dominated zooplankton community, supporting the proposed link between copepod grazing, DMSP release, and the buildup of subthermocline methane enrichments in the central Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We report on methane enrichments that were observed during summer in the upper water column of the Gotland Basin, central Baltic Sea. In the eastern part of the basin, methane concentrations just below the thermocline varied between 15 nM and 77 nM, in contrast to the western part where no methane enrichments could be detected. Stable carbon isotope ratios of methane (δ13C‐CH4 of −67.6‰) indicated its in situ biogenic origin from CO2 reduction, which was supported by clonal sequences that clustered with Methanomicrobiaceae, a family of methanogenic Archaea. Incubation experiments with a Temora longicornis dominated seston fraction obtained from the relevant depth showed a positive correlation between seston concentration and methane production rates. Our results, in combination with previous literature outcomes, suggest that the methane enrichment in the eastern basin might be sustained by a diet‐consumer relationship between the dinoflagellate Dinophysis norvegica and the copepod T. longicornis. However, our mass balance indicates that a local methane production of 110 pmol L−1 d−1 was needed to maintain the methane enrichment, and that the estimated production rate from our incubation experiments of 0.3 pmol CH4 d−1 per adult T. longicornis (about 1 pmol L−1 d−1) was too low to maintain the methane enrichment by zooplankton associated methane production only. These calculations also showed that methane was consumed below the thermocline and not transported into the upper‐ocean, suggesting that other sources in the mixed layer in the range of 95 pmol L−1 d−1 are needed to maintain the observed methane air–sea flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since eddies play a major role in the dynamics of oceanic flows, it is of great interest to detect them and gain information about their tracks, their lifetimes and their shapes. We present a Lagrangian descriptor based on the modulus of vorticity to construct an eddy tracking tool. In our approach we denote an eddy as a rotating region in the flow possessing an eddy core corresponding to a local maximum of the Lagrangian descriptor and enclosed by pieces of manifolds of distinguished hyperbolic trajectories (eddy boundary).We test the performance of the eddy tracking tool based on this Lagrangian descriptor using an convection flow of four eddies, a synthetic vortex street and a velocity field of the western Baltic Sea. The results for eddy lifetime and eddy shape are compared to the results obtained with the Okubo-Weiss parameter, the modulus of vorticity and an eddy tracking tool used in oceanography. We show that the vorticity-based Lagrangian descriptor estimates lifetimes closer to the analytical results than any other method. Furthermore we demonstrate that eddy tracking based on this descriptor is robust with respect to certain types of noise, which makes it a suitable method for eddy detection in velocity fields obtained from observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an inventory of the recent benthic macrofaunal communities in the entire Baltic Sea. The analyses of soft-bottom benthic invertebrate community data based on over 7000 locations in the Baltic Sea suggested the existence of 10 major communities based on species abundances and 17 communities based on species biomasses, respectively. The low-saline northern Baltic, characterized by silty sediments, is dominated by Monoporeia affinis, Marenzelleria spp., and Macoma balthica. Hydrobiidae, Pygospio elegans, and Cerastoderma glaucum dominate the community in sandy habitats off the Estonian west coast and in the southeastern and southern Baltic Sea. Deep parts of the Gulf of Finland and central Baltic Sea often experience hypoxia, and when oxygen levels in these regions recover, Bylgides sarsi was the first species to colonize. The southwestern Baltic Sea, with high salinity, has higher macrofaunal diversity compared with the northern parts. To spatially interpolate the distribution of the major communities, we used the Random Forest method. Substrate data, bathymetric maps, and modelled hydrographical fields were used as predictors. Model predictions were in good agreement with observations, quantified by Cohen's K of 0.90 for the abundance and 0.89 in the wet weight-based model. Misclassifications were mainly associated with uncommon classes in regions with high spatial variability. Our analysis provides a detailed baseline map of the distribution of benthic communities in the Baltic Sea to be used both in science and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shelf seas such as the North Sea and the Baltic Sea are characterised by spatially and temporally varying stratification that is highly relevant for their physical dynamics and the evolution of their ecosystems. Stratification may vary from unstably stratified (e.g., due to convective surface cooling) to strongly stratified with density jumps of up to 10 kg/m 3 per m (e.g., in overflows into the Baltic Sea). Stratification has a direct impact on vertical turbulent transports (e.g., of nutrients) and influences the entrainment rate of ambient water into dense bottom currents which in turn determine the stratification of and oxygen supply to, e.g., the central Baltic Sea. Moreover, the suppression of the vertical diffusivity at the summer thermocline is one of the limiting factors for the vertical exchange of nutrients in the North Sea. Due to limitations of computational resources and since the locations of such density jumps (either by salinity or temperature) are predicted by the model simulation itself, predefined vertical coordinates cannot always reliably resolve these features. Thus, all shelf sea models with a predefined vertical coordinate distribution are inherently subject to under-resolution of the density structure. To solve this problem, Burchard and Beckers (2004) and Hofmeister et al. (2010) developed the concept of vertically adaptive coordinates for ocean models, where zooming of vertical coordinates at locations of strong stratification (and shear) is imposed. This is achieved by solving a diffusion equation for the position of the coordinates (with the diffusivity being proportional to the stratification or shear frequencies). We will show for a coupled model system of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (resolution ∼ 1.8 km) how numerical mixing is substantially reduced and model results become significantly more realistic when vertically adaptive coordinates are applied. We additionally demonstrate that vertically adaptive coordinates perform well in simulating the two dynamically different regions North Sea and Baltic Sea with a single parameter set. An analysis of the computational overhead of the adaptive coordinates indicates an increase of 5–8% in runtime. This is still less expensive than adding more sigma-layers to reduce spurious numerical mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The investigation of larval dispersal and retention, their variability and dependence on wind conditions, has become a major topic in fisheries research owing to potential effects on stock recruitment and stock structuring. The present study quantifies the wind-induced variability of larval retention of herring in a highly productive coastal lagoon of the Western Baltic Sea. This lagoon, the Greifswalder Bodden, represents the main spawning area of Western Baltic Spring-Spawning Herring, a stock that has recently undergone a continuous decline in recruitment. The study tests whether this decline was related to changes in larval retention, more precisely to changes in wind conditions, the main forcing of the lagoon's circulation. To answer this, a model approach was applied. Larvae were tracked as Lagrangian drifters under constant and variable wind conditions, examining the main drift patterns and reconstructing the incidents during the period of recruitment decline. For the latter, weekly cohorts of virtual larvae were released in the lagoon over the entire spawning period (April-June; >16 weeks). The fraction of retained larvae per cohort was related to observed larval abundances. On this basis, a new retention index was defined to evaluate the annual larval retention. The results presented cannot explain the observed recruitment decline but characterize the lagoon as an important larval retention area by virtue of unsteady wind conditions that prevent a steady outflow of larvae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5-2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7-2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5-2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally-coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature or mean sea level. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional/local scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year ocean model experiments for the Western Baltic Sea. In order to simulate storm surges in this region, we have used the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) as a high-resolution local model (spatial resolution ≈ 1 km), nested into a regional atmospheric and regional oceanic model in a fully baroclinic downscaling approach. The downscaling is based on the global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The projections are imbedded into two greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period 2000-2100, each with two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. We use this modelling system to statistically reproduce the present distribution of surge extremes. The usage of the high-resolution local model leads to an improvement in surge heights of at least 10% compared to the driving model. To quantify uncertainties associated with climate projections, we investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and changes in mean sea levels. The analysis revealed a linear dependence of surge height and mean sea level, although the slope parameter is spatially varying. Furthermore, the modelling system is used to project possible changes within the next century. The results show that the sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than does increased wind speed. The simulations further indicate that the changes in storm surge height in the scenarios can be consistently explained by the increase in mean sea level and variation in wind speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Efficient adaptive time stepping algorithm is developed for random walk models. [•] Its performance on spatially non-uniform turbulent mixing test cases is assessed. [•] For large vertical diffusivity gradient algorithm controls the pycnocline crossing. [•] Adaptive algorithm is more accurate and efficient than the fixed time step algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Tourism around the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon, at the southern Baltic coast, has a long tradition, is an important source of income and shall be further developed. Insufficient bathing water quality and frequent beach closings, especially in the Oder river mouth, hamper tourism development. Monitoring data gives only an incomplete picture of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria sources, spatial transport patterns, risks and does neither support an efficient bathing water quality management nor decision making. We apply a 3D ocean model and a Lagrangian particle tracking model to analyse pollution events and to obtain spatial E. coli pollution maps based on scenario simulations. Model results suggests that insufficient sewage treatment in the city of Szczecin is the major source of faecal pollution, even for beaches 20km downstream. E. coli mortality rate and emission intensity are key parameters for concentration levels downstream. Wind and river discharge play a modifying role. Prevailing southwestern wind conditions cause E. coli transport along the eastern coast and favour high concentration levels at the beaches. Our simulations indicate that beach closings in 2006 would not have been necessary according to the new EU-Bathing Water Quality Directive (2006/7/EC). The implementation of the new directive will, very likely, reduce the number of beach closings, but not the risk for summer tourists. Model results suggest, that a full sewage treatment in Szczecin would allow the establishment of new beaches closer to the city (north of Dabie lake). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Quantitative sampling of sessile assemblages on temperate subtidal rocky reefs is expensive and severely time-limited by logistics. However, knowledge about distribution patterns of critical and endangered species and habitats at different spatial scales is needed for effective marine management strategies. To gain information of sessile community distribution on broader spatial scales (>1 km), visual imaging was employed for the first time on a reef complex in the south-western Baltic Sea. Analysis of 3000 images along 6 transects (in total 18 km long) from 10 to 40 m depth revealed high natural variation in reef physical structure, with well-defined changes in sessile species richness, cover and composition. Overall 14 morphological groups could be distinguished by imaging and 4 distinct community groups associated with specific habitat requirements were identified. Depth remained the best descriptor. However, data indicate that light intensity, concentration of organic carbon and suspended particulate matter have an effect on reef community distribution. Compared to fully marine conditions, the study revealed a unique zonation pattern in the circalittoral zone of the Fehmarnbelt brackish transition area, with an unexpected reef habitat in the trench. We conclude that towed camera platform imagery might help to close the information gap regarding rocky reefs in the temperate subtidal. It provides a valuable tool to assess the main distribution patterns of sessile assemblages on rough terrain, potentially applicable for management and conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to estimate, model and map the spatial differences of ecosystem functioning expressed by community bioturbation potential (BPc), an indicator of benthic faunal function based on bioturbation, in the German part of the Baltic Sea. The usefulness of bioturbation potential calculations was justified by its moderate but significant correlation with estimates of bioturbation rates derived from diagenetic models fitted to the in situ measured sediment depth profiles of naturally-occurring chlorophyll-a tracer. Seasonal and interannual variations of BPc were assessed and key species contributing to bioturbation in the study area were identified. To generate the most accurate map of BPc and to investigate its predictability based on abiotic parameters, we have tested 3 different methodological approaches: i) benthic macrofauna community bioturbation potential was initially calculated per station and treated as response variable for species distribution modelling technique (RandomForest, RF) with relevant available environmental layers used as predictors, ii) 35 key species were selected as the most contributing to BPc (responsible for 90% of total BPc), their population bioturbation potential (BPp) estimates were used as response variables and RF models were fitted on each of them to predict their full coverage distributions, that were subsequently summed up to the BPc, iii) BPc values at stations were interpolated to a raster surface using a natural neighbour technique. The comparison with observed values of BPc indicated that map derived by natural neighbour interpolation was the most accurate one given the considered resolution of 1 × 1 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]