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The assessment of uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling in a changing environment is an important, yet often neglected, task. In an Austrian case study, we investigated the uncertainty cascade in storylines of landslide susceptibility emerging from climate change and parametric landslide model uncertainty. In June 2009, extreme events of heavy thunderstorms occurred in the Styrian Basin, triggering thousands of landslides. Using a storyline approach, we discovered a generally lower landslide susceptibility for the pre-industrial climate, while for the future climate (2071–2100) a potential increase of 35 % in highly susceptible areas (storyline of much heavier rain) may be compensated for by much drier soils (- 45 % areas highly susceptible to landsliding). However, the estimated uncertainties in predictions were generally high. While uncertainties related to within-event internal climate model variability were substantially lower than parametric uncertainties in the landslide susceptibility model (ratio of around 0.25), parametric uncertainties were of the same order as the climate scenario uncertainty for the higher warming levels (+3 and +4 K). We suggest that in future uncertainty assessments, an improved availability of event-based landslide inventories and high-resolution soil and precipitation data will help to reduce parametric uncertainties in landslide susceptibility models used to assess the impacts of climate change on landslide hazard and risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferability of knowledge from well-investigated areas to a new study region is gaining importance in landslide hazard research. Considering the time-consuming compilation of landslide inventories as a prerequisite for landslide susceptibility mapping, model transferability can be key to making hazard-related information available to stakeholders in a timely manner. In this paper, we compare and combine two important transfer-learning strategies for landslide susceptibility modeling: case-based reasoning (CBR) and domain adaptation (DA). Care-based reasoning gathers knowledge from previous similar situations (source areas) and applies it to solve a new problem (target area). Domain adaptation, which is widely used in computer vision, selects data from a source area that has a similar distribution to the target area. We assess the performances of single- and multiple-source CBR, DA, and CBR–DA strategies to train and combine landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models (GAMs) for 10 study areas with various resolutions (1, 10, and 25 m) located in Austria, Ecuador, and Italy. The performance evaluation shows that CBR and combined CBR–DA based on our proposed similarity criterion were able to achieve performances comparable to benchmark models trained in the target area itself. Particularly the CBR strategies yielded favorable results in both single- and multi-source strategies. Although DA tended to have overall lower performances than CBR, it had promising results in scenarios where the source–target similarity was low. We recommend that future transfer-learning research for landslide susceptibility modeling can build on the similarity criterion we used, as it successfully helped to transfer landslide susceptibility models by identifying suitable source regions for model training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferability of knowledge from well-investigated areas to a new study region is gaining importance in landslide hazard research. Considering the time-consuming compilation of landslide inventories as a prerequisite for landslide susceptibility mapping, model transferability can be key to making hazard-related information available to stakeholders in a timely manner. In this paper, we compare and combine two important transfer-learning strategies for landslide susceptibility modelling: case-based reasoning (CBR) and domain adaptation (DA). CBR gathers knowledge from previous similar situations (source areas) and applies it to solve a new problem (target area). DA, which is widely used in computer vision, selects data from a source area that has a similar distribution to the target area. We assess the performances of single- and multiple-source CBR, DA and CBR-DA strategies to train and combine landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models (GAMs) for 10 study areas with various resolutions (1 m, 10 m and 25 m) located in Austria, Ecuador, and Italy. The performance evaluation shows that CBR and combined CBR-DA based on our proposed similarity criterion was able to achieve performances comparable to benchmark models trained in the target area itself. Particularly the CBR strategies yielded favourable results in both single- and multi-source strategies. DA tended to have overall lower performances than CBR; yet, it had promising results in scenarios when the source-target similarity was low. We recommend that future transfer learning research for landslide susceptibility modelling can build on the similarity criterion we used, as it successfully helped to achieve landslide susceptibility model transfers by discovering suitable training datasets from various regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In June 2009 and September 2014, the Styrian Basin in Austria was affected by extreme events of heavy thunderstorms, triggering thousands of landslides. Since the relationship between intense rainfall, land cover/land use (LULC), and landslide occurrences is still not fully understood, our objective was to develop a model design that allows to assess landslide susceptibility specifically for past triggering events. We used generalized additive models (GAM) to link land surface, geology, meteorological, and LULC variables to observed slope failures. Accounting for the temporal variation in landslide triggering, we implemented an innovative spatio-temporal approach for landslide absence sampling. We assessed model performance using k-fold cross-validation in space and time to estimate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Furthermore, we analyzed the variable importance and its relationship to landslide occurrence. Our results showed that the models had on average acceptable to outstanding landslide discrimination capabilities (0.81–0.94 mAUROC in space and 0.72–0.95 mAUROC in time). Furthermore, meteorological and LULC variables were of great importance in explaining the landslide events (e.g., five-day rainfall 13.6–17.8% mean decrease in deviance explained), confirming their usefulness in landslide event analysis. Based on the present findings, future studies may assess the potential of this approach for developing future storylines of slope instability based on climate and LULC scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increased availability of high-resolution digital terrain models (HRDTM) generated using airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), new opportunities for improved mapping of geohazards such as landslides arise. While the visual interpretation of LiDAR, HRDTM hillshades is a widely used approach, the automatic detection of landslides is promising to significantly speed up the compilation of inventories. Previous studies on automatic landslide detection often used a combination of optical imagery and geomorphometric data, and were implemented in commercial software. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of open source software for automated landslide detection solely based on HRDTM-derived data in a study area in Burgenland, Austria. We implemented a geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) consisting of (1) the calculation of land-surface variables, textural features and shape metrics, (2) the automated optimization of segmentation scale parameters, (3) region-growing segmentation of the landscape, (4) the supervised classification of landslide parts (scarp and body) using support vector machines (SVM), and (5) an assessment of the overall classification performance using a landslide inventory. We used the free and open source data-analysis environment R and its coupled geographic information system (GIS) software for the analysis; our code is included in the Supplementary Materials. The developed approach achieved a good performance (κ = 0.42) in the identification of landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]