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The impact of the first round of Victorian demand-driven reforms, referred to as the Victorian Training Guarantee (VTG), on enrolments and training outcomes is the focus of this report. The VTG reforms were introduced to create a more responsive training market and were implemented between July 2009 and January 2011. Subsequent reforms introduced in Victoria in 2012 are not part of this analysis. A particular focus of this report is on impacts for Indigenous students, those from a non-English speaking background and students with a disability. The impact of the VTG on enrolments and training outcomes for students from different age groups is also considered. Key messages in this report include: (1) For 15 to 19-year-olds, the Victorian Training Guarantee is estimated to improve the likelihood of being in full-time employment six months after training; this group was also satisfied with their course. The outcomes were not as positive for those aged 20 to 24 years, however, possibly suggesting that the upskilling requirements of the training guarantee are limiting the potential benefits for those looking to change their occupation; and (2) The increases in enrolments for students from a non-English speaking background or who have a disability were not as great as for those who were not in these equity groups. The Victorian Training Guarantee was estimated to have no effect on Indigenous students' enrolments. The following appendices are included: (1) VET trends across states; (2) Enrolment data; and (3) Outcome data. [Funding is provided through the Australian Department of Industry.]

Despite comprising only a small fraction of all vocational education and training (VET) in Schools enrolments, programs that count towards both national VET qualifications and university entry potentially fill an important role in the upper-secondary school curriculum. The aim of this study is to take a first step in gaining an understanding of the efficacy of VET in Schools courses by estimating the relationship between enrolling in Victorian Certificate of Education (VCE) VET subjects and university access. The authors chose to examine the outcomes from VCE VET courses because they represent a model of assessment, known as "scored VET", that closely resembles that applied in general courses. In particular, the assessment involves both written exams and numerical assessment of performance in job-specific tasks associated with units of competency. In this study, the analysis is carried out on a sample of school completers in Victoria in 2011 who lodged a first preference for enrolment in a university course prior to sitting their final year exams. To meet the aim of this study, the following key research questions are addressed: (1) What is the relationship between taking a Victorian Certificate of Education VET subject and university entry scores?; (2) To what extent is any relationship explained by scores in VCE VET subjects (direct effect) as opposed to scores in all other subjects taken by VCE VET students (indirect effect)?; (3) Does any relationship depend upon the type of VCE VET subject chosen?; (4) What is the relationship between participating in VCE VET subjects and the chances of being offered a place at university?; and (5) What is the relationship between participating in VCE VET subjects and the chances of attaining a first, third or sixth university entry preference? It was found that among students who intend to go to university, controlling for a range of differences between those who do and who do not take a VCE VET subject, that those who take a VCE VET subject have a six-point lower score on average than those who do not take a VCE VET subject (111 compared with 117 out of a possible 205). This represents around a 5% lower university entry score on average and is robust to the range of alternative key assumptions that underpin the analysis. Across VCE VET subject groupings, the authors found some variation in magnitude of the estimated negative association, with significant negative associations found in four of the seven subject groupings (engineering and technology; community, outdoor and recreation; hospitality; information technology) and no statistically significant negative results found for the rest (business and finance; dance and music; equine industry). Importantly, the authors stress that this study only examines the impacts of taking VCE VET subjects on direct access to university. Other important outcomes from VCE VET programs, such as indirect access to university (for example, by completing a diploma course), participation in post-school VET study, retention in post-school study, and employment outcomes are not investigated here, but should be considered in any overall evaluation of these programs. The following are appended: (1) Assessment; (2) VCE VET subjects; (3) Technical appendix; (4) Probit results and balancing test results; and (5) Sensitivity analysis.