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Objectives: To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982–2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019–2043. Study design: Population‐based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data. Setting: Australia, 1982–2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043. Main outcome measures: Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982–2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age‐standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age–period–cohort models; estimated 5‐ and 30‐year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method). Results: The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982–2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006–2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7–2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990–2018 (APC, –0.4%; 95% CI, –0.5% to –0.2%). The age‐standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018–2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4–10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6–3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years. Conclusion: Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: There have been significant advancements in risk identification and treatment for ovarian cancer over the last decade. However, their impact on health services costs is unclear. This study estimated the direct health system costs (government perspective) for women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in Australia during 2006–2013, as a benchmark prior to opportunities for precision-medicine approaches to treatment, and for health care planning. Methods: Using cancer registry data, we identified 176 incident ovarian cancers (including fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer) in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort. Each case was matched with four cancer-free controls on sex, age, geography, and smoking history. Costs were derived from linked health records on hospitalisations, subsidised prescription medicines and medical services to 2016. Excess costs for cancer cases were estimated for different phases of care relative to cancer diagnosis. Overall costs for prevalent ovarian cancers in Australia in 2013 were estimated based on 5-year prevalence statistics. Results: At diagnosis, 10% of women had localised disease, 15% regional spread and 70% distant metastasis (5% unknown). The mean excess cost per ovarian cancer case was $40,556 in the initial treatment phase (≤12 months post-diagnosis), $9,514 per annum in the continuing care phase and $49,208 in the terminal phase (up to 12 months before death). Hospital admissions accounted for the greatest proportion of costs during all phases (66%, 52% and 68% respectively). Excess costs were higher for patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease, particularly during the continuing care phase ($13,814 versus $4,884 for localised/regional disease). The estimated overall direct health services cost of ovarian cancer in 2013 was AUD$99million (4,700 women nationally). Conclusion: The excess health system costs of ovarian cancer are substantial. Continued investment in ovarian cancer research, particularly prevention, early detection and more effective personalised treatments is necessary to reduce the burden of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colorectal cancer is the third most diagnosed cancer globally and the second leading cause of cancer death. We examined colon and rectal cancer treatment patterns in Australia. Methods: From cancer registry records, we identified 1,236 and 542 people with incident colon and rectal cancer, respectively, diagnosed during 2006-2013 in the 45 and Up Study cohort (267,357 participants). Cancer treatment and deaths were determined via linkage to routinely collected data, including hospital and medical services records. For colon cancer, we examined treatment categories of "surgery only", "surgery plus chemotherapy", "other treatment" (i.e. other combinations of surgery/chemotherapy/radiotherapy), "no record of cancer-related treatment, died"; and, for rectal cancer, "surgery only", "surgery plus chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy", "other treatment", and "no record of cancer-related treatment, died". We analysed survival, time to first treatment, and characteristics associated with treatment receipt using competing risks regression. Results: 86.4% and 86.5% of people with colon and rectal cancer, respectively, had a record of receiving any treatment ≤2 years post-diagnosis. Of those treated, 93.2% and 90.8% started treatment ≤2 months post-diagnosis, respectively. Characteristics significantly associated with treatment receipt were similar for colon and rectal cancer, with strongest associations for spread of disease and age at diagnosis (p<0.003). For colon cancer, the rate of "no record of cancer-related treatment, died" was higher for people with distant spread of disease (versus localised, subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR)=13.6, 95% confidence interval (CI):5.5-33.9), age ≥75 years (versus age 45-74, SHR=3.6, 95%CI:1.8-7.1), and visiting an emergency department ≤1 month pre-diagnosis (SHR=2.9, 95%CI:1.6-5.2). For rectal cancer, the rate of "surgery plus chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy" was higher for people with regional spread of disease (versus localised, SHR=5.2, 95%CI:3.6-7.7) and lower for people with poorer physical functioning (SHR=0.5, 95%CI:0.3-0.8) or no private health insurance (SHR=0.7, 95%CI:0.5-0.9). Conclusion: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most people with colon or rectal cancer received treatment ≤2 months post-diagnosis, however, treatment patterns varied by spread of disease and age. This work can be used to inform future healthcare requirements, to estimate the impact of cancer control interventions to improve prevention and early diagnosis, and serve as a benchmark to assess treatment delays/disruptions during the pandemic. Future work should examine associations with clinical factors (e.g. performance status at diagnosis) and interdependencies between characteristics such as age, comorbidities, and emergency department visits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To determine pathways to endometrial or ovarian cancer diagnosis by comparing health service utilization between cancer cases and matched cancer-free controls, using linked health records. Methods: From cancer registry records, we identified 238 incident endometrial and 167 ovarian cancer cases diagnosed during 2006–2013 in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort (142,973 female participants). Each case was matched to four cancer-free controls on birthdate, sex, place of residence, smoking status, and body mass index. The use of relevant health services during the 13–18-, 7–12-, 0–6-, and 0–1-months pre-diagnosis for cases and the corresponding dates for their matched controls was determined through linkage with subsidized medical services and hospital records. Results: Healthcare utilization diverged between women with cancer and controls in the 0–6-months, particularly 0–1 months, pre-diagnosis. In the 0–1 months, 74.8% of endometrial and 50.3% of ovarian cases visited a gynecologist/gynecological oncologist, 11.3% and 59.3% had a CA125 test, 5.5% and 48.5% an abdominal pelvic CT scan, and 34.5% and 30.5% a transvaginal pelvic ultrasound, respectively (versus ≤ 1% of matched controls). Moreover, 25.1% of ovarian cancer cases visited an emergency department in the 0–1-months pre-diagnosis (versus 1.3% of matched controls), and GP visits were significantly more common for cases than controls in this period. Conclusion: Most women with endometrial or ovarian cancer accessed recommended specialists and tests in the 0–1-months pre-diagnosis, but a high proportion of women with ovarian cancer visited an emergency department. This reinforces the importance of timely specialist referral. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Lung cancer (LC) in never-smoking individuals would rank as Australia's eighth most deadly cancer, yet risk factors remain uncertain. We investigated demographic, lifestyle and health-related exposures for LC among never-smoking Australians. Methods: Using the prospective 45 and Up Study with 267,153 New South Wales (NSW) residents aged ≥ 45 years at recruitment (2006–2009), we quantified the relationship of 20 potential exposures with LC among cancer-free participants at baseline who self-reported never smoking. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident LC were estimated using Cox regression. The NSW Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk (CLEAR) Study, a case–control study including 10,781 NSW residents aged ≥ 18 years (2006–2014), was used to examine 16 potential LC exposures among cancer-free never-smoking participants. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI of LC were estimated using logistic regression. Results: There were 226 LC cases among 132,354 cancer-free 45 and Up Study participants who reported never smoking, with a median follow-up of 5.41 years. The CLEAR Study had 58 LC cases and 1316 cancer-free controls who had never smoked. Analyses of both datasets showed that Asian-born participants had a higher risk of LC than those born elsewhere: cohort, adjusted HR = 2.83 (95% CI 1.64–4.89) and case–control, adjusted OR = 3.78 (1.19–12.05). No significant association with LC was found for other exposures. Conclusion: Our findings support the growing evidence that never-smoking, Asian-born individuals are at higher risk of developing LC than those born elsewhere. Ethnicity could be considered when assessing potential LC risk among never-smoking individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previously published sub-site Australian projections for colon and rectal cancers to 2035 using the World Health Organization's mortality database sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) predicted mortality rate decreases for colon cancer and increases for rectal cancer. There are complexities related to the interpretation of ABS's Australian colon and rectal cancer mortality rates, which could lead to possible inaccuracies in mortality rates for these sub-sites. The largest Australian population-wide registry, New South Wales Cancer Registry (NSWCR), compares routinely-reported causes of death with the recorded medical history from multiple data sources. Therefore, this study used the NSWCR data to project mortality rates for colon and rectal cancers separately to 2040 in Australia. The mortality rates for colon cancer are projected to continuously decline over the period 2015–2040, from 7.0 to 4.7 per 100,000 males, and from 5.3 to 3.2 per 100,000 females. Similar decreasing trends in mortality rates for rectal cancer were projected over the period 2015–2040, from 4.9 to 3.7 per 100,000 males, and from 2.6 to 2.3 per 100,000 females. These projections provide benchmark estimates for the colorectal cancer burden in Australia against which the effectiveness of cancer control interventions can be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) care costs the Australian healthcare system more than any other cancer. We estimated costs and days in hospital for CRC cases, stratified by site (colon/rectal cancer) and disease stage, to inform detailed analyses of CRC-related healthcare. Methods: Incident CRC patients were identified using the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort linked with cancer registry records. We analysed linked hospital admission records, emergency department records, and reimbursement records for government-subsidised medical services and prescription medicines. Cases' health system costs (2020 Australian dollars) and hospital days were compared with those for cancer-free controls (matched by age, sex, geography, smoking) to estimate excess resources by phase of care, analysed by sociodemographic, health, and disease characteristics. Results: 1200 colon and 546 rectal cancer cases were diagnosed 2006–2013, and followed up to June 2016. Eighty-nine percent of cases had surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy, and excess costs were predominantly for hospitalisations. Initial phase (12 months post-diagnosis) mean excess health system costs were $50,434 for colon and $60,877 for rectal cancer cases, with means of 16 and 18.5 excess hospital days, respectively. The annual continuing mean excess costs were $6,779 (colon) and $8,336 (rectal), with a mean of 2 excess hospital days each. Resources utilised (costs and days) in these phases increased with more advanced disease, comorbidities, and younger age. Mean excess costs in the year before death were $74,952 (colon) and $67,733 (rectal), with means of 34 and 30 excess hospital days, respectively–resources utilised were similar across all characteristics, apart from lower costs for cases aged ≥75 at diagnosis. Conclusions: Health system costs and hospital utilisation for CRC care are greater for people with more advanced disease. These findings provide a benchmark, and will help inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of potential approaches to CRC screening and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: A previous Australian study compared the observed numbers of cancer cases and deaths in 2007 with the expected numbers based on 1987 rates. This study examines the impact of cancer rate changes over the 20-year period 1996–2015, for people aged under 75 years. Results: The overall age-standardised cancer incidence rate increased from 350.7 in 1995 to 364.4 per 100,000 in 2015. Over the period 1996–2015, there were 29,226 (2.0%) more cases (males: 5940, 0.7%; females: 23,286, 3.7%) than expected numbers based on 1995 rates. Smaller numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung for males and colorectum, and cancers with unknown primary. Larger numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the prostate, thyroid and female breast. The overall age-standardised cancer mortality rate decreased from 125.6 in 1995 to 84.3 per 100,000 in 2015. During 1996 to 2015 there were 106,903 (− 20.6%) fewer cancer deaths (males: − 69,007, − 22.6%; females: − 37,896, − 17.9%) than expected based on the 1995 mortality rates. Smaller numbers of deaths were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung, colorectum and female breast, and more cancer deaths were observed for liver cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Quantified the number of lung cancer deaths averted in Australia through tobacco control. • Almost 2 million lung cancer deaths have already been prevented over the period 1956–2100. • Lung cancer will continue to be a significant public health concern in Australia. • Achieving zero smoking by 2025 would result in 360,000 more lung cancer deaths being averted by 2100. • Highlighted the urgent need for more effective and targeted tobacco control strategies to be implemented. Abstract Objectives To estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths averted under various smoking scenarios. Methods We predicted lung cancer mortality rates and case numbers to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. We estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: 'actual tobacco control' (incorporating the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking prevalence was achieved by 2025, all of which were compared to a counterfactual scenario with the highest historical smoking consumption level continuing into the future as if no tobacco control initiatives had been implemented. Results Without tobacco control, there would have been an estimated 392,116 lung cancer deaths over the period 1956–2015; of these 20% (78,925 deaths; 75,839 males, 3086 females) have been averted due to tobacco control. However, if past and current measures continue to have the expected effect, an estimated 1.9 million deaths (1,579,515 males, 320,856 females; 67% of future lung cancer deaths) will be averted in 2016–2100. If smoking prevalence is reduced to 10%, 5% or 0% by 2025, an additional 97,432, 208,714 or 360,557 deaths could be averted from 2016 to 2100, respectively. Conclusion Tobacco control in Australia has had a dramatic impact on the number of people dying from lung cancer. Several hundred thousand more lung cancer deaths could be averted over the course of the century if close-to-zero smoking prevalence could be achieved in the next decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cervical screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination have been implemented in most high-income countries; however, coverage is low in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In 2018, the Director-General of WHO announced a call to action for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. WHO has called for global action to scale-up vaccination, screening, and treatment of precancer, early detection and prompt treatment of early invasive cancers, and palliative care. An elimination threshold in terms of cervical cancer incidence has not yet been defined, but an absolute rate of cervical cancer incidence could be chosen for such a threshold. In this study, we aimed to quantify the potential cumulative effect of scaled up global vaccination and screening coverage on the number of cervical cancer cases averted over the 50 years from 2020 to 2069, and to predict outcomes beyond 2070 to identify the earliest years by which cervical cancer rates could drop below two absolute levels that could be considered as possible elimination thresholds-the rare cancer threshold (six new cases per 100 000 women per year, which has been observed in only a few countries), and a lower threshold of four new cases per 100 000 women per year.Methods: In this statistical trends analysis and modelling study, we did a statistical analysis of existing trends in cervical cancer worldwide using high-quality cancer registry data included in the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We then used a comprehensive and extensively validated simulation platform, Policy1-Cervix, to do a dynamic multicohort modelled analysis of the impact of potential scale-up scenarios for cervical cancer prevention, in order to predict the future incidence rates and burden of cervical cancer. Data are presented globally, by Human Development Index (HDI) category, and at the individual country level.Findings: In the absence of further intervention, there would be 44·4 million cervical cancer cases diagnosed globally over the period 2020-69, with almost two-thirds of cases occurring in low-HDI or medium-HDI countries. Rapid vaccination scale-up to 80-100% coverage globally by 2020 with a broad-spectrum HPV vaccine could avert 6·7-7·7 million cases in this period, but more than half of these cases will be averted after 2060. Implementation of HPV-based screening twice per lifetime at age 35 years and 45 years in all LMICs with 70% coverage globally will bring forward the effects of prevention and avert a total of 12·5-13·4 million cases in the next 50 years. Rapid scale-up of combined high-coverage screening and vaccination from 2020 onwards would result in average annual cervical cancer incidence declining to less than six new cases per 100 000 individuals by 2045-49 for very-high-HDI countries, 2055-59 for high-HDI countries, 2065-69 for medium-HDI countries, and 2085-89 for low-HDI countries, and to less than four cases per 100 000 by 2055-59 for very-high-HDI countries, 2065-69 for high-HDI countries, 2070-79 for medium-HDI countries, and 2090-2100 or beyond for low-HDI countries. However, rates of less than four new cases per 100 000 would not be achieved in all individual low-HDI countries by the end of the century. If delivery of vaccination and screening is more gradually scaled up over the period 2020-50 (eg, 20-45% vaccination coverage and 25-70% once-per-lifetime screening coverage by 2030, increasing to 40-90% vaccination coverage and 90% once-per-lifetime screening coverage by 2050, when considered as average coverage rates across HDI categories), end of the century incidence rates will be reduced by a lesser amount. In this scenario, average cervical cancer incidence rates will decline to 0·8 cases per 100 000 for very-high-HDI countries, 1·3 per 100 000 for high-HDI countries, 4·4 per 100 000 for medium-HDI countries, and 14 per 100 000 for low-HDI countries, by the end of the century.Interpretation: More than 44 million women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer in the next 50 years if primary and secondary prevention programmes are not implemented in LMICs. If high coverage vaccination can be implemented quickly, a substantial effect on the burden of disease will be seen after three to four decades, but nearer-term impact will require delivery of cervical screening to older cohorts who will not benefit from HPV vaccination. Widespread coverage of both HPV vaccination and cervical screening from 2020 onwards has the potential to avert up to 12·5-13·4 million cervical cancer cases by 2069, and could achieve average cervical cancer incidence of around four per 100 000 women per year or less, for all country HDI categories, by the end of the century. A draft global strategy to accelerate cervical cancer elimination, with goals and targets for the period 2020-30, will be considered at the World Health Assembly in 2020. The findings presented here have helped inform initial discussions of elimination targets, and ongoing comparative modelling with other groups is supporting the development of the final goals and targets for cervical cancer elimination.Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia, part-funded via the NHMRC Centre of Excellence for Cervical Cancer Control (C4; APP1135172). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background To improve melanoma early detection, tools to predict personal risk based on genetic information (polygenic risk scores, PRS) have been developed, but require external validation. Methods We analysed invasive melanoma incidence in UK Biobank (UKB; n = 395,647; 1,651 cases) and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS, Australia; n = 4,765; 303 cases). Three PRS were evaluated: 68 genetic variants (SNPs) at 54 loci from a 2020 meta-analysis (PRS68); 50 SNPs significant in the 2020 meta-analysis excluding UKB (PRS50); 45 SNPs at 21 loci known pre-2020 (PRS45). 10-year melanoma risks were calculated from population-level cancer registry data by age group and sex, with and without PRS adjustment. Results All PRS were strongly associated with melanoma incidence, including after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, and ease of tanning. Predicted absolute melanoma risks based on age and sex alone underestimated melanoma incidence in UKB (ratio expected/observed cases E/O=0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.62-0.68) and MCCS (E/O=0.65, 0.57-0.73). For UKB, this was reduced by PRS-adjustment, e.g. PRS50-adjusted risks E/O=0.91 (0.87-0.95). Discriminative ability for PRS68- and PRS50-adjusted absolute risks was higher than for risks based on age and sex alone (deltaAUC 0.07-0.1, p < 0.0001), and higher than for PRS45-adjusted risks (deltaAUC 0.02-0.04, p < 0.001). Conclusions A PRS derived from a larger, more diverse meta-analysis improves melanoma risk prediction compared to an earlier PRS. Re-calibration of absolute risks may be necessary for application to specific populations. Key messages A genetic score can improve prediction of melanoma risk and might help tailor melanoma prevention and early detection strategies to different risk levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Lung cancer in never-smokers (LCINS), if considered as a distinct type, would rank as Australia's eighth most deadly cancer. We investigated several demographic, lifestyle and health-related risk factors for LCINS in Australia. Methods Using the longitudinal 45 and Up Study cohort with 267,153 New South Wales (NSW) residents aged ≥45 years at recruitment (2006-2009), we quantified the relationship of 20 potential risk factors with LCINS. Self-reported never-smoking participants who were cancer-free at baseline were followed for incident lung cancer (LC), and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression. The NSW Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk (CLEAR) Study, a case-control study including 10,781 NSW residents aged ≥18 years, was also used to examine 16 potential risk factors for LCINS. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI for LC were estimated using logistic regression. Results In the 45 and Up Study, there were 226 LC cases among 132,354 cancer-free never-smokers with a median follow-up of 5.41 years. In the CLEAR Study, there were 58 LCINS cases and 1316 cancer-free never-smoking controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, analyses of both datasets showed that Asian-born participants had a higher risk of LCINS than those born elsewhere: cohort HR = 2.83 (95% CI: 1.64-4.89) and case-control OR = 3.78 (95% CI: 1.19-12.05). Conclusions Our findings support the growing evidence that never-smokers born in Asia are at higher risk of developing LC than those born elsewhere. Key messages Region of birth could be considered when assessing potential LC risk among never-smokers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Weighting can improve study estimate representativeness. We examined the impact of weighting on associations between participants' characteristics and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort., Methods: Raking weighted cohort data to the 2006 Australian population for seven sociodemographic characteristics. Deaths were ascertained via linkage to routinely collected data. Cox's proportional hazards regression quantified associations between 11 sociodemographic and health characteristics and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The ratios of hazard ratios (RHRs) compared unweighted and weighted estimates., Results: Among 195,052 included participants (median follow-up 11.4 years), there were 7200 cancer, 5912 cardiovascular and 21,840 all-cause deaths. Overall, 102/111 (91.9%) weighted HRs did not differ significantly from unweighted HRs (100%, 86.5% and 89.2% of 37 HRs for cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, respectively). Significant differences included a somewhat stronger association between single/widowed/divorced (versus married/de-facto) and cardiovascular mortality (unweighted HR=1.25 (95%CI:1.18-1.32), weighted HR=1.33 (95%CI:1.24-1.42), RHR=1.06 (95%CI:1.02-1.11)); and between no school certificate/qualification (versus university degree) and all-cause mortality (unweighted HR=1.21 (95%CI:1.15-1.27), weighted HR=1.28 (95%CI:1.19-1.38), RHR=1.06 (95%CI:1.03-1.10))., Conclusion: Our results support the generalisability of most estimates of associations in the 45 and Up Study, particularly in relation to cancer mortality. Slight distortion of a few associations with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality were observed., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Sarsha Yap, Qingwei Luo, Stephen Wade, Preston Ngo, David Goldsbury, Peter Sarich, Emily Banks, Marianne Weber, Michael David, Julia Steinberg have no competing interests to declare. Karen Canfell is co-principal investigator (PI) of an investigator-initiated trial of cervical screening, “Compass”, run by the Australian Centre for Prevention of Cervical Cancer (ACPCC), which is a government-funded not-for-profit charity. Compass receives infrastructure support from the Australian government and the ACPCC has received equipment and a funding contribution from Roche Molecular Diagnostics, USA. KC is also co-PI on a major implementation program Elimination of Cervical Cancer in the Western Pacific (ECCWP) which has received support from the Minderoo Foundation and equipment donations from Cepheid Inc. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Despite growing calls for the explicit application of theory when designing behaviour change interventions, limited empirical evidence exists regarding the effectiveness of these methods compared to non-theoretical approaches. A cluster randomized controlled trial (Hide and Seek Project - HaSP) tested two implementation approaches for improving hereditary cancer referral practices with one key distinction: implementation strategies were designed based explicitly on psychological theory or based on stakeholder intuition. This study presents the detailed methods and resources used to facilitate this comparison, whilst examining the strategies generated through both approaches., Methods: Across seven Australian hospitals, clinical stakeholders attended focus groups to co-design site-specific strategies for improving Lynch syndrome referral. Co-design methods differed according to trial arm. Implementation strategy content was examined, with intuitively derived strategies retrospectively coded to determine theoretical alignment., Results: Fifty-one strategies were proposed across all sites (theory-based arm = 32, intuition-based arm = 19). Overall, nine behaviour change technique (BCT) categories were used on 77 occasions. In the theory-based trial arm, eight BCT categories were identified on 53 occasions; and five BCT categories on 24 occasions in the intuition-based arm. BCT categories were largely similar across both arms. After retrospectively coding intuitively derived strategies, 42% contained mechanistic links, thereby demonstrating theoretical alignment., Conclusion: Methods facilitated robust comparison of theoretical and intuitive approaches to implementation strategy design. Recognizing the known benefits of theory for enhancing scientific learning, applying these methods on a larger scale may provide definitive evidence about the comparative effectiveness of theoretical approaches., (© 2024 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Genetic referral for Lynch syndrome (LS) exemplifies complex clinical pathways. Identifying target behaviours (TBs) for change and associated barriers requires structured group consultation activities with busy clinicians - consolidating implementation activities whilst retaining rigour is crucial. This study aimed to: i) use process mapping to gain in-depth understandings of site-specific LS testing and referral practices in Australian hospitals and support identification of TBs for change, ii) explore if barriers to identified TBs could be identified through process mapping focus-group data, and iii) demonstrate pandemic-induced transition from in-person to virtual group interactive process mapping methods. LS clinical stakeholders attended interactive in-person or virtual focus groups to develop site-specific "process maps" visually representing referral pathways. Content analysis of transcriptions informed site-specific process maps, then clinical audit data was compared to highlight TBs for change. TBs were reviewed in follow-up focus groups. Secondary thematic analysis explored barriers to identified TBs, coded against the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). The transition from in-person to pandemic-induced virtual group interactive process mapping methods was documented. Process mapping highlighted six key areas of clinical practice variation across sites and site-specific TBs for change were identified. Key barriers to identified TBs emerged, categorised to seven TDF domains. Process mapping revealed variations in clinical practices surrounding LS referral between sites. Incorporating qualitative perspectives enhances process mapping by facilitating identification of TBs for change and barriers, providing a pathway to developing targeted interventions. Virtual process mapping activities produced detailed data and enabled comprehensive map development., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Behavioral Medicine.)

Objective: Over the 15 years since the 45 and Up Study (the Study) was established, researchers have harnessed its capacity for enabling rigorous, comprehensive investigation of cancer causes, care, and outcomes. For the first time in Australia, the entire cancer-control continuum could be investigated by linking questionnaire data with cancer registry notifications, hospital records, outpatient medical services and prescription medications at scale. Here, we use lung cancer as a case study to demonstrate the Study's potential to improve cancer control., Method: Narrative description., Results: Between 2006-2013, approximately 1200 participants in the Study cohort who had no prior history of cancer were diagnosed with lung cancer, allowing the generation of novel, policy- and practice-relevant evidence for tobacco control, screening, and systems of care. The Study produced evidence on the continuing impact of smoking, including that 'light smoking' (1-5 cigarettes/day) is associated with nine times the risk of lung cancer compared to never-smoking; and that 54% of lung cancers could be avoided long-term if all Australians who smoked were to quit. The Study was used to validate a lung cancer screening risk prediction tool, correctly identifying 70% of the participants with a history of smoking who developed lung cancer within a 6-year period as 'high-risk'. Potential inequities in lung cancer care were identified using the Study cohort, including suboptimal levels of radiotherapy utilisation, below benchmark levels of systemic therapy for patients with metastatic disease, and high numbers of emergency department presentations prior to diagnosis. Participants with lung cancer reported poorer quality of life than those with almost any other cancer type, and about 50% reported severe physical functioning limitations. The Study also provided the infrastructure for the first comprehensive report on lung cancer health system costs., Lessons Learnt: As a statewide, population-based cohort, the Study provides reliable estimates of cancer risk, health services utilisation, and person-centred outcomes that can inform policy and practice decision making; and has provided the backbone for localising policy-relevant insights from international experience. We have found that the direct involvement of clinicians and policy makers in research design, and engagement with community networks, can yield tractable, policy-relevant, and ultimately impactful scientific insights., Competing Interests: None declared.

Background: Health surveys are commonly somewhat non-representative of their target population, potentially limiting the generalisability of prevalence estimates for health/behaviour characteristics and disease to the population. To reduce bias, weighting methods have been developed, though few studies have validated weighted survey estimates against generally accepted high-quality independent population benchmark estimates., Methods: We applied post-stratification and raking methods to the Australian 45 and Up Study using Census data and compared the resulting prevalence of characteristics to accepted population benchmark estimates and separately, the incidence rates of lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancer to whole-of-population estimates using Standardised Incidence Ratios (SIRs)., Results: The differences between 45 and Up Study and population benchmark estimates narrowed following sufficiently-informed raking, e.g. 13.6% unweighted prevalence of self-reported fair/poor overall health, compared to 17.0% after raking and 17.9% from a population benchmark estimate. Raking also improved generalisability of cancer incidence estimates. For example, unweighted 45 and Up Study versus whole-of-population SIRs were 0.700 (95%CI:0.574-0.848) for male lung cancer and 1.098 (95%CI:1.002-1.204) for prostate cancer, while estimated SIRs after sufficiently-informed raking were 0.828 (95%CI:0.684-0.998) and 1.019 (95%CI:0.926-1.121), respectively., Conclusion: Raking may be a useful tool for improving the generalisability of exposure prevalence and disease incidence from surveys to the population., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Previous studies suggest that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) may improve melanoma risk stratification. However, there has been limited independent validation of PRS-based risk prediction, particularly assessment of calibration (comparing predicted to observed risks)., Objectives: To evaluate PRS-based melanoma risk prediction in prospective UK and Australian cohorts with European ancestry., Methods: We analysed invasive melanoma incidence in the UK Biobank (UKB; n = 395 647, 1651 cases) and a case-cohort nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS, Australia; n = 4765, 303 cases). Three PRSs were evaluated: 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 54 loci from a 2020 meta-analysis (PRS68), 50 SNPs significant in the 2020 meta-analysis excluding UKB (PRS50) and 45 SNPs at 21 loci known in 2018 (PRS45). Ten-year melanoma risks were calculated from population-level cancer registry data by age group and sex, with and without PRS adjustment., Results: Predicted absolute melanoma risks based on age and sex alone underestimated melanoma incidence in the UKB [ratio of expected/observed cases: E/O = 0·65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·62-0·68] and MCCS (E/O = 0·63, 95% CI 0·56-0·72). For UKB, calibration was improved by PRS adjustment, with PRS50-adjusted risks E/O = 0·91, 95% CI 0·87-0·95. The discriminative ability for PRS68- and PRS50-adjusted absolute risks was higher than for risks based on age and sex alone (Δ area under the curve 0·07-0·10, P < 0·0001), and higher than for PRS45-adjusted risks (Δ area under the curve 0·02-0·04, P < 0·001)., Conclusions: A PRS derived from a larger, more diverse meta-analysis improves risk prediction compared with an earlier PRS, and might help tailor melanoma prevention and early detection strategies to different risk levels. Recalibration of absolute risks may be necessary for application to specific populations., (© 2022 The Authors. British Journal of Dermatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Association of Dermatologists.)

Objective: Menopausal status impacts risk for many health outcomes. However, factors including hysterectomy without oophorectomy and Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT) can mask menopause, affecting reliability of self-reported menopausal status in surveys. We describe a step-by-step algorithm for classifying menopausal status using: directly self-reported menopausal status; MHT use; hysterectomy; oophorectomy; intervention timing; and attained age. We illustrate this approach using the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort (142,973 women aged ≥ 45 years)., Results: We derived a detailed seven-category menopausal status, able to be further consolidated into four categories ("pre-menopause"/"peri-menopause"/"post-menopause"/"unknown") accounting for participants' ages. 48.3% of women had potentially menopause-masking interventions. Overall, 93,107 (65.1%), 9076 (6.4%), 17,930 (12.5%) and 22,860 (16.0%) women had a directly self-reported "post-menopause", "peri-menopause", "pre-menopause" and "not sure"/missing status, respectively. 61,464 women with directly self-reported "post-menopause" status were assigned a "natural menopause" detailed derived status (menopause without MHT use/hysterectomy/oophorectomy). By accounting for participants' ages, 105,817 (74.0%) women were assigned a "post-menopause" consolidated derived status, including 15,009 of 22,860 women with "not sure"/missing directly self-reported status. Conversely, 3178 of women with directly self-reported "post-menopause" status were assigned "unknown" consolidated derived status. This algorithm is likely to improve the accuracy and reliability of studies examining outcomes impacted by menopausal status., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Translating evidence into complex health systems is an ongoing challenge. Building the capacity of healthcare workers in behavioral and implementation science methods may facilitate the use of evidence-based implementation approaches, leading to sustainable and effective translation. The aim was to describe the development, contents and evaluation of a training workshop aimed at upskilling hospital-embedded staff to deliver an evidence-based implementation approach. The Hide and Seek Project (HaSP) is a cluster randomized controlled trial testing two implementation approaches for improving hereditary cancer referral at eight Australian hospitals. Healthcare workers were recruited as "Implementation Leads" and trained via a one-day workshop-TRAining in evideNce-baSed ImpLementATion for hEalth (TRANSLATE). The purpose of TRANSLATE was to upskill Implementation Leads in the delivery of HaSP, as well as implementation science methods more broadly. Implementation Leads participated in semi-structured evaluation interviews, which were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Nine Implementation Leads from various professional backgrounds completed the training. Four key themes were identified: (i) training day reactions, (ii) learning, (iii) implementation barriers and facilitators, and (iv) building health system capacity for implementation. Participants reported high levels of satisfaction, and anticipated that the knowledge and skills may be useful in the future. We describe a novel training program focused on the delivery of evidence-based implementation within health systems. Guided by insights from this study, methods to deliver the training on a larger scale and across different contexts are being explored. The prolonged impact of TRANSLATE will be further evaluated at trial completion. Trial registration: ANZCTR, ACTRN12618001072202. Registered on June 27, 2018., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Behavioral Medicine.)