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The Australian Institute for the Conservation of Cultural Material has published a range of resources that promote environmentally aware collection care and management practices including climate-specific Environmental Guidelines, the Sustainable Collections wiki and the Climate Adaptation resource. The Climate Adaptation resource provides access to 180 maps illustrating potential future climate scenarios for Australia in 2030 and 2090, using the two Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These maps were produced as part of research undertaken in 2019–2020 by Pagliarino and Meredith and supplement those published in volume 41 (issue 1) of the AICCM Bulletin. The release of updated climate change projections in the Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis – precipitated a review of the Climate Adaptation resource to confirm the continued veracity of the maps. This paper provides the results of that assessment, which confirmed the resource's ongoing accuracy and currency. In addition, the paper includes discussion of the new IPCC future climate scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which supersede RCP, and a summary of the state of the climate in Australia with warming, humidity, fire, weather and sea level rise investigated in more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses exploration of South-Eastern Australian coastline management. It mentions use of geospatial technology to maintain and conserve valuable coastlines; and also mentions 3D surveys of the whole beach are the ideal and provide the most information, including an estimate of the total volume of sand present; and also mentions climate change will drive long-term changes in how beaches around Australia behave.

Background: Australia has one of the highest skin cancer rates in the world. 'SunSmart' is a multi-component, internationally recognised community-wide skin cancer prevention program implemented in Melbourne, Australia, since summer 1988-1989. Following recent reductions in melanoma rates among younger Australian cohorts, the extent of behaviour change and the potential contribution of prevention programs to this decline in melanoma rates are of interest. Sun protection is a multifaceted behaviour. Measures previously applied to monitor change over time in preventive behaviour for this population focused on individual behaviours. The omission of multiple behaviours that reduce exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UV) may have led to underestimates of behaviour change, meriting further analysis of long-term trends to contribute to this debate.Methods and Findings: A population-based survey was conducted in Melbourne in the summer before SunSmart commenced (1987-1988) and across summers in 3 subsequent decades (1988-2017). During summer months, residents (14-69 years) were recruited to cross-sectional weekly telephone interviews assessing their tanning attitudes, sun protection behaviour, and sunburn incidence on the weekend prior to interview. Quotas were used to ensure the sample was proportional to the population by age and sex, while younger respondents were oversampled in some years. The majority of the respondents reported their skin was susceptible to sunburn. Changes in sun protection behaviour were analysed for N = 13,285 respondents in multivariable models, cumulating surveys within decades (1987-1988: N = 1,655; 1990s: N = 5,258; 2000s: N = 3,385; 2010s: N = 2,987) and adjusting for relevant ambient weather conditions and UV levels on weekend dates. We analysed specific and composite behaviours including a novel analysis of the use of maximal sun protection, which considered those people who stayed indoors during peak UV hours together with those people well-protected when outdoors. From a low base, use of sun protection increased rapidly in the decade after SunSmart commenced. The odds of use of at least 1 sun protection behaviours on summer weekends was 3 times higher in the 1990s than pre-SunSmart (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.04, 95% CI 2.52-3.68, p < 0.001). There was a smaller increase in use of maximal sun protection including shade (AOR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.44-1.97, p < 0.001). These improvements were sustained into the 2000s and continued to increase in the 2010s. Inferences about program effects are limited by the self-reported data, the absence of a control population, the cross-sectional study design, and the fact that the survey was not conducted in all years. Other potential confounders may include increasing educational attainment among respondents over time and exposure to other campaigns such as tobacco and obesity prevention.Conclusions: With an estimated 20-year lag between sun exposure and melanoma incidence, our findings are consistent with SunSmart having contributed to the reduction in melanoma among younger cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quandong or native peach (Santalum acuminatum R.Br.) has been recognised as an important and tasty food resource among Aboriginal Australians in arid and semi-arid areas of southern Australia. It is valued for its fruit that is consumed raw or dried, and for its kernel, which is eaten raw or ground into paste for medicinal and skin care purposes. This paper reports on a study of ground stone implements within the Murray Darling Basin that has identified quandong stones as a distinct type of implement made specifically for the efficient cracking of quandong nuts. Data are presented on 1,327 ground stone implements from collections in 12 different locations in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area almost completely devoid of stone sources. Given the paucity of stone, multi-purpose use of implements is widely documented. Although it was common to find pits present in mortars and other ground stone tools demonstrating multiple functions, including use as anvils, a class of single purpose stones with multiple pits and distinctive form was identified. Most of these were found in areas known for groves of quandong and four were analysed for use-wear and residues along with two other ground stone items from the MDB. The results support their identification as specialised anvil stones for cracking quandong nuts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bowel and bladder problems affect more than 50% of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). These problems have a large impact on quality of life and place a significant burden on health systems. Objectives: This study aimed to ascertain the frequency of bladder and bowel problems in a select Australian MS cohort and to investigate the relationships between level of disability, bladder and bowel problems, and fatigue. Methods: Questionnaires on the nature and severity of MS symptoms were distributed to clients attending an Australian MS centre. Log-binomial regression and multiple linear regression models were used to investigate relationships between disability, fatigue, and bladder and bowel problems. Results and conclusions: Of 167 questionnaires distributed, 136 were completed. Bladder problems were reported by 87 (74.4%) respondents, whilst 66 (48.9%) experienced functional constipation and 43 (31.9%) faecal incontinence. This frequency in our select Australian MS population is similar to that reported globally. There was a significant correlation between level of disability and: bladder problems (p = 0.015), faecal incontinence (p = 0.001), fatigue (p<0.001) and constipation (p = 0.016, relative risk: 1.16). Further investigation into the causal relationships between various MS symptoms may be beneficial in the development of novel therapeutic strategies for people with MS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian fire weather shows spatiotemporal variability on interannual and multi-decadal time scales. We investigate the climate factors that drive this variability using 39 station-based historical time series of the seasonal 90th-percentile of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) extending from 1973 through 2017. Using correlation analyses, we examine the relationship of these time series to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), considering both concurrent and time-lagged relationships. Additionally, longer term behaviour of the time series using linear trend analysis is discussed in the context of the climate drivers, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and anthropogenic climate change. The results show that ENSO is the main driver for interannual variability of fire weather, as defined by FFDI in this study, for most of Australia. In general, El Niño-like conditions lead to more extreme fire weather, with this effect stronger in eastern Australia. However, there are significant regional variations to this general rule. In NSW, particularly along the central coast, negative SAM is a primary influence for elevated fire weather in late-winter and spring. In the southeast (VIC and TAS), the El Niño-like impact is exacerbated when positive IOD conditions are simultaneously observed. The spring conditions are key, and strongly influence what is observed during the following summer. On longer time scales (45 years), linear trends are upward at most stations; this trend is strongest in the southeast and during the spring. The positive trends are not driven by the trends in the climate drivers and they are not consistent with hypothesized impacts of the IPO, either before or after its late-1990s shift to the cold phase. We propose that anthropogenic climate change is the primary driver of the trend, through both higher mean temperatures and potentially through associated shifts in large-scale rainfall patterns. Variations from interannual factors are generally larger in magnitude than the trend effects observed to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While drink driving continues to be significantly more common among male drivers, there is evidence from many countries that shows a growing trend of women engaging in this risky behaviour. The aims of the current study were threefold: (i) determine to what extent a sample of women drivers reported engaging in drink driving behaviour by expanding the construct into a range of definitions, (ii) determine if there were significant differences in self-reported engagement in drink driving behaviours in accordance with hazardous drinking behaviour, and (iii) identify which situational or personal factors would increase women drivers’ likelihood to engage in drink driving through presenting a range of scenarios. Method: Data were collected using an on-line, purpose-designed survey and promoted to reach women aged 17 years and older, living in Queensland, Australia. In addition to questions relating to demographic characteristics, participants completed items relating to engagement in seven drink driving related behaviours in the previous 12-month period, hazardous drinking as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, and likelihood of driving when unsure if over the legal limit for licence type across a range of scenarios manipulating different situational factors. A total of 644 valid responses were received in the two-week period the study was advertised. Results: The results demonstrate women’s self-reported engagement in drink driving behaviour ranged from 12.6% (driving when they believed they were over the legal limit) to over 50.0% (driving when unsure if over the legal limit the morning after drinking alcohol) and was significantly more likely among those who reported hazardous levels of alcohol use. Circumstances in which women reported they would drive when unsure if over the legal BAC limit were when they were a few blocks from home, if they subjectively felt they were not too intoxicated, or if they needed their car to get somewhere the next morning. Conclusion: Examining drink driving behaviour by way of responses to nuanced definitions provided valuable insight into self-reported engagement in the behaviour and highlights the usefulness of multi-measure dependent variables in order to illuminate a more accurate acknowledgement into both the type (and extent) of drink driving behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree stems swell and shrink daily, which is thought to reflect changes in the volume of water within stem tissues. We observed these daily patterns using automatic dendrometer bands in a diverse group of mangrove species over five mangrove forests across Australia and New Caledonia. We found that mangrove stems swelled during the day and shrank at night. Maximum swelling was highly correlated with daily maxima in air temperature. Variation in soil salinity and levels of tidal inundation did not influence the timing of stem swelling over all species. Medium-term increases in stem circumference were highly sensitive to rainfall. We defoliated trees to assess the role of foliar transpiration in stem swelling and shrinking. Defoliated trees showed maintenance of the pattern of daytime swelling, indicating that processes other than canopy transpiration influence the temporary stem diameter increments, which could include thermal swelling of stems. More research is required to understand the processes contributing to stem shrinking and swelling. Automatic Dendrometer Bands could provide a useful tool for monitoring the response of mangroves to extreme climatic events as they provide high-frequency, long-term, and large-scale information on tree water status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inappropriate utilization of prescription opioids and benzodiazepines is a public health problem. This study examined and compared user-types and trends in dispensing of these medicines, and identified associated factors related to the duration of dispensing in Australia. Methods: A random 10% sample of unit-record data of opioids and benzodiazepines dispensed nationally during 2013–2016 was analyzed. Users were categorized into four types: single-quarter (i.e., three months), medium-episodic (dispensed 2–6 quarters), long-episodic (dispensed 7–11 quarters), chronic (dispensed 12–16 quarters). Dispensing quantity was computed in defined daily dose (DDD). Generalized multilevel ordinal models were developed to examine the factors associated with the duration of dispensing. Results: There were similarities in terms of trends of dispensing of opioids and benzodiazepines in Australia. Overall, more people were dispensed opioids than benzodiazepines. Around 52% of opioids users and 46% of benzodiazepines users were dispensed these medicines for a single quarter. However, chronic users were dispensed 60% of opioids and 50% of benzodiazepines in DDD/1000 people/day, respectively. On average, 16.6 DDD/1000 people/day of opioids and 14.2 DDD/1000 people/day of benzodiazepines were dispensed in Australia during the study period. Tasmania was dispensed the highest quantity (in DDD/1000 people/day) of these medicines, followed by South Australia and Queensland. Women compared to men, and clients of age-group 20–44, 45–64 and 65+ compared to age-group 0–19, were significantly more likely to have dispensed opioids/benzodiazepine for a relatively long duration. Clients with a history of dispensing of one of these two medicines were significantly more likely to have dispensed the other for a relatively long period. Conclusions: There were similarities in patterns of dispensing of opioids and benzodiazepines in terms of user characteristics and structural variables. Consistent use of real-time drug monitoring program and tailored intervention are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

“Why are neurotypicals so pig-ignorant about autism?” an autistic person wrote on the Curtin Autism Research Group’s on-line portal as a response to a call for research questions. Co-produced with an autistic researcher, knowledge about and attitudes towards autism were analysed from 1,054 completed surveys, representing the Australian neurotypical adult population. The majority, 81.5% of participants had a high level of knowledge and 81.3% of participants had a strong positive attitude towards autism. Neither age, nor education level had an impact on attitudes. However, attitudes were influenced by knowledge about ‘Societal Views and Ideas’; ‘What it Could be Like to Have Autism’; and the demographic variables ‘Knowing and having spent time around someone with autism’; and gender (women having more positive attitudes than men). Thus, targeted interventions, geared more towards men than women, to increase knowledge about autism could further improve attitudes and increase acceptance of the autistic community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Ageing in place is one of the greatest desires of elderly people. Assistive digital technologies could potentially delay the institutionalization of the elderly people and allow them ageing in place. This study develops a population-wide cost estimating framework for adopting digital technologies that can improve the quality of life of elderly people through examining an Australian region. Methods: We developed a five-stage cost estimation framework, which involved progressive forecasting of elderly population and direct cost estimation methods. The forecasting and cost estimation models have been set for a 10-year period because the prediction accuracy from cross-sectional data is better in the short to medium term compared to the long-term. For cost estimation, we categorised the ageing population on the basis of the number of chronic diseases that they have contracted. Costs of assistive technologies were collected from open sources. The model has been tested in the Fitzroy and Central West, a regional area of Queensland in Australia. A stakeholder panel discussion in a workshop format was used to validate the appropriateness of the proposed framework and the study findings. Results: This study identified eight common chronic diseases with different comorbidity patterns in Australia. We also identified the required assistive technologies to assist patients with chronic diseases. This study estimated that annual per capita cost for technological intervention could range from AUD 4,169 to AUD 7,551 on the basis of different price margins of the technologies. Conclusion: The approach of categorising the aged cohorts on the basis of the number of chronic diseases helps estimate population-wide costs compared to using single technology intervention costs for a particular chronic disease cohort. The cost estimation framework and the method developed in this study can assist the government to estimate costs for ageing-in-place programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past decade, over 3000 shell middens or shell matrix deposits have been discovered on the Farasan Islands in the southern Red Sea, dating to the period c. 7,360 to 4,700 years ago. Many of the sites are distributed along a palaeoshoreline which is now 2–3 m above present sea level. Others form clusters with some sites on the shoreline and others located inland over distances of c. 30 m to 1 km. We refer to these inland sites as ‘post-shore’ sites. Following Meehan, who observed a similar spatial separation in shell deposition in her ethnographic study of Anbarra shellgathering in the Northern Territory of Australia, we hypothesise that the shoreline sites are specialised sites for the processing or immediate consumption of shell food, and the post-shore sites are habitation sites used for a variety of activities. We test this proposition through a systematic analysis of 55 radiocarbon dates and measurement of shell quantities from the excavation of 15 shell matrix sites in a variety of locations including shoreline and post-shore sites. Our results demonstrate large differences in rates of shell accumulation between these two types of sites and selective removal of shoreline sites by changes in sea level. We also discuss the wider implications for understanding the differential preservation and visibility of shell-matrix deposits in coastal settings in other parts of the world extending back into the later Pleistocene in association with periods of lowersea level. Our results highlight the importance of taphonomic factors of post-depositional degradation and destruction, rates of shell accumulation, the influence on site location of factors other than shell food supply, and the relative distance of deposits from their nearest palaeoshorelines as key variables in the interpretation of shell quantities. Failure to take these variables into account when investigating shells and shell-matrix deposits in late Pleistocene and early Holocene contexts is likely to compromise interpretations of the role and significance of shell food in human evolutionary and socio-cultural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Glucosamine dietary supplements are commonly used for the management of osteoarthritis (OA). However, clinical trials have reported varying outcomes with regard to joint function and disease progression. One of the possible reasons for variability in observed effects of glucosamine could be that, unlike prescription drugs, the quality of manufactured dietary supplements is not closely monitored in many countries. Therefore, there is the possibility that the actual amount of glucosamine present in a dietary supplement is different from that claimed on the label. The quality control of glucosamine supplements is further complicated by the unavailability of a simple and effective analytical method for the analysis of glucosamine. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a simple analytical method that could be easily adapted by the pharmaceutical industry for routine analysis of glucosamine. Aims: To develop a novel high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for the quantification of glucosamine, and determine the amount of glucosamine present in a sample of dietary supplements commercially available in Australia and India. Methods: Chromatographic separation of glucosamine was achieved using a zwitter-ionic hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography column with a mobile phase consisting of 60% acetonitrile and 40% of 85 mM ammonium acetate, at a flow rate of 0.3 mL/min and column temperature 40°C. The developed method was validated for intra- and inter-day linearity, accuracy, precision, and reproducibility. The newly-developed method was subsequently used to analyse 12 glucosamine supplements. Results: The developed method was selective for glucosamine, which had a retention time of 5.9 min. The standard curve was linear with a correlation coefficient (r2) exceeding 0.99, over the range of 10–200 μg/mL for glucosamine. The relative standard deviations for intra- and inter-day accuracy, precision and reproducibility were all less than 4%. The amount of glucosamine determined in six Australian and six Indian glucosamine supplements ranged between 98.7–101.7% and 85.9–101.8% of the labelled values, respectively. Discussion: Unlike previous HPLC methods, this newly-developed HPLC technique does not require pre-derivatisation and can separate glucosamine from both hydrochloride and sulphate salts, and from other amino sugars, such as chondroitin sulphate present in dietary supplements. This simple and effective technique can be employed by analytical laboratories for the quality control of glucosamine dietary supplements. Conclusion: The current study has developed a new analytical technique using HPLC-Corona CAD, which can analyse underivatised glucosamine hydrochloride and sulphate within 6 minutes. Using the novel assay, we confirmed that unlike the tested Australian dietary supplements, only half of the tested Indian products had a glucosamine content within ±10% of what was claimed on the label. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hormonal assessment tools are important for determining the reproductive success of production animals. This study used non-invasive wool assessment to quantify changes in progesterone and cortisol levels in reproducing female merino sheep. Wool samples were collected from a group of n = 46 maiden merino ewes (22–25 months old), naturally joined under natural light conditions in southern New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Three shearing opportunities were conducted as part of standard on-farm management practices. The wool samples were collected at three different dates during 2017, January (prior to rams being put out with the mob and to provide a baseline level since previous shearing in May 2016), September (during very late stages of gestation–approximately 2 weeks prior to parturition) and December (ewes had given birth and ~2-month-old lambs were at foot). Analysis of cortisol and progesterone was conducted concurrently from the same sample of wool. The hormones in wool samples quantified using commercially available cortisol and progesterone enzyme-immunoassay kits. Wool cortisol concentrations increased significantly (p = 3.04E-14) from pre-joining in January (1.33±0.12 ng/g) to late gestation in September (3.59±0.12 ng/g). Concentration of wool cortisol post-lambing in December (3.27±0.14 ng/g) did not decline significantly (p = 0.124) after gestation however remained significantly higher (p = 3.82E-10) than pre-joining levels. Wool progesterone (PG) concentrations increased significantly (p = 1.83E-33) from pre-joining (0.04±0.005 ng/g) in January to late gestation in September (5.53±0.13 ng/g) with a significant (p = 5.44E-59) decline observed in December (0.05±0.003 ng/g) to post- pregnancy concentrations. No significant difference was shown between pre-joining and post lambing PG concentrations (p = 0.057). Our results showed that non-invasive assessment of hormones in Merino sheep wool reflected significant increase in both cortisol and progesterone guided by pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Temperate Highland Peat Swamps on Sandstone of the Sydney Basin occur in the headwaters of Sydney’s drinking water catchments and are listed as endangered ecosystems, yet they have suffered habitat losses and degradation due to human impacts such as urbanisation. Despite ongoing efforts to restore and better protect upland swamps, they remain poorly understood, potentially hindering the effectiveness of management efforts. Essential to overall ecosystem function and the provision of services for human and environmental benefit are the microbial component of wetland ecosystems. In the case of these swamps, the microbes, have not yet been studied. Here, we investigated differences in the microbial community of upland swamps in urbanised catchments compared to swamps from natural catchments in the Blue Mountains. A total of twelve swamps were sampled, six from within urbanised catchments and six with intact vegetation catchments, to compare sediment conditions and microbial community and genes expression and abundances. Catchment impervious area and number of stormwater drains entering a swamp, indicators for urbanisation, positively correlated with the pH and ammonium concentration of swamp sediment. Community analysis of the 16S rRNA gene (T-RFLP, qPCR) revealed the elevated pH of urbanised swamps coincided with changes to the abundance of bacteria and archaea. Furthermore, RT-qPCR revealed genes involved in carbon cycling (mcrA & pmoA) were more likely to be found in urbanised swamps. Taken together, our results indicate that urbanisation of the Blue Mountains is impacting the environmental services provided by the microbial community of upland swamps in the Sydney Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To assess the potential cost-effectiveness of the 45–49 year old health check versus usual care in Australian general practice using secondary data sources. Method: Risk factor profiles were generated for a hypothetical Australian cohort using data from the National Health Survey. Intervention effects were modelled based on a meta-analysis on risk factor changes in the 5 years after a health check. The Framingham Risk Equation was applied to estimate the 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in the health check and usual care group respectively. A Markov model was then constructed to extrapolate long-term CVD outcomes, health care costs and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) in both groups. Health check-related costs, applied to the health check group, were estimated from clinical guideline and experts’ opinion. Lifetime costs, applied to both groups, included costs of hospitalization for CVD events and associated post-event health service use. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) was calculated for male and female patients respectively. Results: Compared to usual care, the health check reduced CVD incidence for both males (RR = 0.87) and females (RR = 0.91) over a 5-year time. In a lifetime projection, health check led to an average 0.008 and 0.003 QALYs gained per male and female participants respectively. The estimates ICERs were AU $42,355 and AU $133,504 per QALY gained for males and females, respectively. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated a probability of cost-effectiveness of 17.5% and 0% for male and female attendees, assuming a willingness to pay threshold of AU $28,000 per QALY gained. Conclusion: The 45–49 year old health check is associated with a small expected QALY gain per participant, though the persons avoiding CVD events experience large health gains. The mean ICER is larger than an empirical estimate of the threshold ICER and the evaluated health check is highly unlikely to be cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated the size of the population of gay-identified men who have sex with men (gay men) eligible for PrEP in Australia under the current national PrEP guidelines. Using input indicators from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the national representative survey Second Australian Study of Health and Relationships, and national HIV- behavioural surveillance, we calculated the size of the population of sexually active gay men and estimated a range for the number eligible for PrEP using different scenarios based on the guidelines. In 2015, an estimated 108,850 sexually-active 16-69-year-old gay men were classified as at risk of acquiring HIV in Australia. Of these men, 10,558 to 30,913 (9.7%-28.4%) were classified as being at high risk and therefore eligible for PrEP, most commonly due to recent receptive condomless intercourse with casual partners (6.1% to 15.5%), STI infections (5.4% to 10.6%) or the use of crystal methamphetamine (1.4% to 9.4%). The higher estimates included men who may have been at HIV risk for shorter time periods or with fewer partners. Australian PrEP guidelines recommend targeting PrEP to people at high HIV risk. Our estimation of potential PrEP users informed PrEP implementation in Australia. The choice of PrEP eligibility criteria, and interpretation of the guidelines, strongly affects the population estimates. In the future, higher numbers of gay men may become eligible for PrEP, because the estimates are largely defined by and follow trends in condomless anal intercourse. Our estimation methods can be adapted to other settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Australia, turnip weed has been rapidly emerging as one of the major weeds in conservation agricultural systems. Germination and emergence of turnip weed were examined for two populations collected from Gatton and St George regions of Australia; two locations with high and low rainfall, respectively. The seeds of turnip weed germinated at all the tested temperatures, but germination was the lowest at 15/5°C, intermediate at 20/10°C and highest at 25/15°C and 30/20°C. The results indicated a high adaptability of turnip weed to warm environmental conditions, although it is a major problem in the winter season. Germination was higher in dark than light/dark regimes except at 30/20°C. Three was a concomitant reduction in germination as the osmotic potential values decreased from 0 to -1.0 MPa. There was 2 and 4% germination at -0.8 MPa for Gatton and St George populations, respectively, and no germination occurred at an osmotic potential of -1.0 MPa. There was a reduction in germination when the sodium chloride (NaCl) concentration was increased from 0 to 150 mM, and no germination was observed at 200 and 250 mM of NaCl. Turnip weed germinated over a broad range of pH (4 to 10). Seedling emergence was higher at 1 cm depth compared to 0.5 cm or at the soil surface. There was 28 and 33% emergence at the surface for the Gatton and St George populations, respectively, compared to 48 and 56% emergence from 1 cm depth for the Gatton and St George populations, respectively and no emergence was observed from 6 cm depth. The results indicated that tillage leading to shallow burial would promote the emergence of turnip weed; on the contrary, tillage that could bury seeds deep into the soil profile might minimise the emergence. Under ideal conditions and lack of integrated weed management programmes, this weed will emerge, set seeds and enrich the soil seed bank and thereby continue to be a problem in the northern grain region of Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aims to examine the costs associated with a Hospital in the Nursing Home (HiNH) program in Queensland Australia directed at patients from residential aged care facilities (RACFs) with emergency care needs. Methods: A cost analysis was undertaken comparing the costs under the HiNH program and the current practice, in parallel with a pre-post controlled study design. The study was conducted in two Queensland public hospitals: the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital (intervention hospital) and the Logan Hospital (control hospital). Main outcome measures were the associated incremental costs or savings concerning the HiNH program provision and the acute hospital care utilisation over one year after intervention. Results: The initial deterministic analysis calculated the total induced mean costs associated with providing the HiNH program over one year as AU$488,116, and the total induced savings relating to acute hospital care service utilisation of AU$8,659,788. The total net costs to the health service providers were thus calculated at -AU$8,171,671 per annum. Results from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis (based on 10,000 simulations) showed the mean and median annual net costs associated with the HiNH program implementation were -AU$8,444,512 and–AU$8,202,676, and a standard deviation of 2,955,346. There was 95% certainty that the values of net costs would fall within the range from -AU$15,018,055 to -AU$3,358,820. Conclusions: The costs relating to implementing the HiNH program appear to be much less than the savings in terms of associated decreases in acute hospital service utilisation. The HiNH service model is likely to have the cost-saving potential while improving the emergency care provision for RACF residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding what people like about birds can help target advocacy for bird conservation. However, testing preferences for characteristics of birds is methodologically challenging, with bias difficult to avoid. In this paper we test whether preferred characteristics of birds in general are shared by the individual bird species the same people nominate as being those they consider most attractive. We then compare these results with the birds which appear most frequently in the imagery of conservation advocates. Based on a choice model completed by 638 general public respondents from around Australia, we found a preference for small colourful birds with a melodious call. However, when the same people were asked which five birds they found most attractive, 48% named no more than three, mostly large well-known species. Images displayed by a leading Australian bird conservation organisation also favoured large colourful species. The choice model results suggest conservation advocates can promote a much wider range of bird types as flagships, particularly smaller species that might otherwise be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The CES-D is a widely used depression screening instrument. While numerous studies have analysed its psychometric properties using exploratory and various kinds of confirmatory factor analyses, only few studies used Rasch models and none a multidimensional one. Methods: The present study applies a multidimensional Rasch model using a sample of 518 respondents representative for the Austrian general population aged 18 to 65. A one-dimensional model, a four-dimensional model reflecting the subscale structure suggested by [], and a four-dimensional model with the background variables gender and age were applied. Results: While the one-dimensional model showed relatively good fit, the four-dimensional model fitted much better. EAP reliability indices were generally satisfying and the latent correlations varied between 0.31 and 0.88. In the analysis involving background variables, we found a limited effect of the participants’ gender. DIF effects were found unveiling some peculiarities. The two-items subscale Interpersonal Difficulties showed severe weaknesses and the Positive Affect subscale with the reversed item wordings also showed unexpected results. Conclusions: While a one-dimensional over-all score might still contain helpful information, the differentiation according to the latent dimension is strongly preferable. Altogether, the CES-D can be recommended as a screening instrument, however, some modifications seem indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open-cut coal mining in Queensland results in the formation of extensive saline overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75% or 37o). These spoil-piles are generally found in multiple rows, several kilometers in length and heights of up to 50 or 60 m above the original landscape. They are highly dispersive and erodible. Legislation demands that these spoil piles be rehabilitated to minimize on-site and off-site discharges of sediment and salt into the surrounding environment. To achieve this, the steep slopes must be reduced, stabilized against erosion, covered with topsoil and re-vegetated. Key design criteria (slope gradient, slope length and vegetation cover) are required for the construction of post-mining landscapes that will result in acceptable erosion rates. A novel user-friendly hillslope computer model MINErosion 3.4 was developed that can accurately predict potential erosion rates from field scale hillslopes using parameters measured with a 3m laboratory tilting flume-rainfall simulator or using routinely measured soil physical and chemical properties. This model links MINErosion 2 with a novel consolidation and above ground vegetation cover factors, to the RUSLE and MUSLE equations to predict the mean annual and storm event erosion rates. The RUSLE-based prediction of the mean annual erosion rates allow minesites to derive the key design criteria of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation cover that would lead to acceptable erosion rates. The MUSLE-based prediction of storm event erosion rates will be useful as input into risk analysis of potential damage from erosion. MINErosion 3.4 was validated against erosion measured on 20 m field erosion plots established on post-mining landscapes at the Oakey Creek and Curragh coalmines, as well as on 120 and 70 m erosion plots on postmining landscapes at Kidston Gold Mine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to elicit experts’ opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate if any exposure to segregation minimal association in a single male prison population had any association with an increased risk of vitamin D deficiency. Design/methodology/approach A retrospective case study was undertaken with all inmates who had a 25-hyrdoxy-vitamin D test taken during the study period deemed eligible. Hand searching of the medical records by an independent party identified eligible participants whose data were recorded for analysis. Findings In total, 124 prisoners were deemed eligible for inclusion; 67 were vitamin D sufficient and 57 were vitamin D deficient by Australian standards. Time in segregation minimal association was shown not to be significant, however, smoking (OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.27-6.81, p=0.012) and having Asian ethnicity (OR 4.16, 95% CI 1.56-11.10, p=0.004) independently significantly increased the risk of vitamin D deficiency. Research limitations/implications This research is limited by its study design, small sample size and single location. Originality/value This paper presents the first published research into vitamin D levels in a prison population in Australia, and provides a basis for a larger prospective cohort study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian ports serve diverse and extensive activities, such as shipping, tourism and fisheries, which may all impact the quality of port water. In this work water quality monitoring at different ports using a range of water quality evaluation indices was applied to assess the port water quality. Seawater samples at 30 stations in the year 2016–2017 from six ports in NSW, Australia, namely Port Jackson, Botany, Kembla, Newcastle, Yamba and Eden, were investigated to determine the physicochemical and biological variables that affect the port water quality. The large datasets obtained were designed to determine the Water Quality Index, Heavy metal Evaluation Index, Contamination Index and newly developed Environmental Water Quality Index. The study revealed medium water quality index and high and medium heavy metal evaluation index at three of the study ports and high contamination index in almost all study ports. Low level dissolved oxygen and higher level of total dissolved solids, turbidity, fecal coliforms, copper, iron, lead, zinc, manganese, cadmium and cobalt are mainly responsible for the poor water qualities of the port areas. Good water quality at the background samples indicated that various port activities are the likely cause for poor water quality inside the port area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia and New Zealand share the highest incidence rates of melanoma worldwide. Despite the substantial increase in public and physician awareness of melanoma in Australia over the last 30 years–as a result of the introduction of publicly funded mass media campaigns that began in the early 1980s –mortality has steadily increased during this period. This increased mortality has led investigators to question the relative merits of primary versus secondary prevention; that is, sensible sun exposure practices versus early detection. Increased melanoma vigilance on the part of the public and among physicians has resulted in large increases in public health expenditure, primarily from screening costs and increased rates of office surgery. Has this attempt at secondary prevention been effective? Unfortunately epidemiologic studies addressing the causal relationship between the level of secondary prevention and mortality are prohibitively difficult to implement–it is currently unknown whether increased melanoma surveillance reduces mortality, and if so, whether such an approach is cost-effective. Here I address the issue of secondary prevention of melanoma with respect to incidence and mortality (and cost per life saved) by developing a Markov model of melanoma epidemiology based on Australian incidence and mortality data. The advantages of developing a methodology that can determine constraint-based surveillance outcomes are twofold: first, it can address the issue of effectiveness; and second, it can quantify the trade-off between cost and utilisation of medical resources on one hand, and reduced morbidity and lives saved on the other. With respect to melanoma, implementing the model facilitates the quantitative determination of the relative effectiveness and trade-offs associated with different levels of secondary and tertiary prevention, both retrospectively and prospectively. For example, I show that the surveillance enhancement that began in 1982 has resulted in greater diagnostic incidence and reduced mortality, but the reduced mortality carried a significant cost per life saved. I implement the model out to 2028 and demonstrate that the enhanced secondary prevention that began in 1982 becomes increasingly cost-effective over the period 2013–2028. On the other hand, I show that reductions in mortality achieved by significantly enhancing secondary prevention beyond 2013 levels are comparable with those achieved by only modest improvements in late-stage disease survival. Given the ballooning costs of increased melanoma surveillance, I suggest the process of public health policy decision-making–particularly with respect to the public funding of melanoma screening and discretionary mole removal–would be better served by incorporating the results of quantitative modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) causes sporadic but serious disease in Australian potato crops. TSWV is naturally spread to potato by thrips of which Thrips tabaci is the most important. Prior studies indicated possible non-preference of potato cultivars to T. tabaci. Select potato cultivars were assessed for non-preference to T. tabaci in paired and group choice trials. Cultivars ‘Bismark’, ‘Tasman’ and ‘King Edward’ were less preferred than ‘Atlantic’, ‘Russet Burbank’ and ‘Shepody’. Green leaf volatiles were sampled using solid-phase microextraction from the headspace of potato cultivars of two ages that differed in T. tabaci preference. Analysis of headspace volatile data using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves identified individual volatiles associated with T. tabaci preference and non-preference, young and old plants and individual cultivars. These data could be used to inform breeding programs for selection of T. tabaci resistance to assist with TSWV management, and biological testing of novel thrips management compounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With more and more political candidates using social media for campaigning, researchers are looking at measuring the effectiveness of this medium. Most research, however, concentrates on the bare count of likes (or twitter mentions) in an attempt to correlate social media presence and winning. In this paper, we propose a novel method, Interaction Strength Plot (IntS) to measure the passive interactions between a candidate’s posts on Facebook and the users (liking the posts). Using this method on original Malaysian General Election (MGE13) and Australian Federal Elections (AFE13) Facebook Pages (FP) campaign data, we label an FP as performing well if both the posting frequency and the likes gathered are above average. Our method shows that over 60% of the MGE13 candidates and 85% of the AFE13 candidates studied in this paper had under-performing FP. Some of these FP owners would have been identified as popular based on bare count. Thus our performance chart is a vital step forward in measuring the effectiveness of online campaigning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant functional traits are increasingly used to generalize across species, however few examples exist of predictions from trait-based models being evaluated in new species or new places. Can we use functional traits to predict growth of unknown species in different areas? We used three independently collected datasets, each containing data on heights of individuals from non-resprouting species over a chronosquence of time-since-fire sites from three ecosystems in south-eastern Australia. We examined the influence of specific leaf area, woody density, seed size and leaf nitrogen content on three aspects of plant growth; maximum relative growth rate, age at maximum growth and asymptotic height. We tested our capacity to perform out-of-sample prediction of growth trajectories between ecosystems using species functional traits. We found strong trait-growth relationships in one of the datasets; whereby species with low SLA achieved the greatest asymptotic heights, species with high leaf-nitrogen content achieved relatively fast growth rates, and species with low seed mass reached their time of maximum growth early. However these same growth-trait relationships did not hold across the two other datasets, making accurate prediction from one dataset to another unachievable. We believe there is evidence to suggest that growth trajectories themselves may be fundamentally different between ecosystems and that trait-height-growth relationships may change over environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Comparisons between institutions of intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) are significantly confounded by individual patient characteristics, and currently there is a paucity of methods available to calculate risk-adjusted metrics. Methods: We extracted de-identified data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database for admissions between January 1 2011 and December 31 2015. We used a mixed-effects log-normal regression model to predict LOS using patient and admission characteristics. We calculated a risk-adjusted LOS ratio (RALOSR) by dividing the geometric mean observed LOS by the exponent of the expected Ln-LOS for each site and year. The RALOSR is scaled such that values <1 indicate a LOS shorter than expected, while values >1 indicate a LOS longer than expected. Secondary mixed effects regression modelling was used to assess the stability of the estimate in units over time. Results: During the study there were a total of 662,525 admissions to 168 units (median annual admissions = 767, IQR:426–1121). The mean observed LOS was 3.21 days (median = 1.79 IQR = 0.92–3.52) over the entire period, and declined on average 1.97 hours per year (95%CI:1.76–2.18) from 2011 to 2015. The RALOSR varied considerably between units, ranging from 0.35 to 2.34 indicating large differences after accounting for case-mix. Conclusions: There are large disparities in risk-adjusted LOS among Australian and New Zealand ICUs which may reflect differences in resource utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed the utility of stable isotope analysis as a tool for understanding community ecological structure in a species-rich clade of scincid lizards from one of the world's most diverse lizard communities. Using a phylogenetic comparative framework, we tested whether δ15N and δ13C isotopic composition from individual lizards was correlated with species-specific estimates of diet and habitat use. We find that species are highly divergent in isotopic composition with significant correlations to habitat use, but this relationship shows no phylogenetic signal. Isotopic composition corresponds to empirical observations of diet for some species but much variation remains unexplained. We demonstrate the importance of using a multianalytical approach to questions of long-term dietary preference, and suggest that the use of stable isotopes in combination with stomach content analysis and empirical data on habitat use can potentially reveal patterns in ecological traits at finer scales with important implications for community structuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species turnover and its components related to replacement and nestedness form a significant element of diversity that is historically poorly accounted for in conservation planning. To inform biodiversity conservation and contribute to a broader understanding of patterns in species turnover, we undertook a floristic survey of 160 plots along an 870 km transect across oligotrophic sandplains, extending from the mesic south coast to the arid interior of south-western Australia. A nested survey design was employed to sample distances along the transect as evenly as possible. Species turnover was correlated with geographic distance at both regional and local scales, consistent with dispersal limitation being a significant driver of species turnover. When controlled for species richness, species replacement was found to be the dominant component of species turnover and was uniformly high across the transect, uncorrelated with either climatic or edaphic factors. This high replacement rate, well documented in the mega-diverse south-west, appears to also be a consistent feature of arid zone vegetation systems despite a decrease in overall species richness. Species turnover increased rapidly with increasing extent along the transect reaching an asymptote at ca. 50 km. These findings are consistent with earlier work in sandplain and mallee vegetation in the south-west and suggests reserve based conservation strategies are unlikely to be practicable in the south-western Australia sandplains when communities are defined by species incidence rather than dominance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most commercially available therapeutic honey is derived from flowering Leptospermum scoparium (manuka) plants from New Zealand. Australia has more than 80 Leptospermum species, and limited research to date has found at least some produce honey with high non-peroxide antibacterial activity (NPA) similar to New Zealand manuka, suggesting Australia may have a ready supply of medical-grade honey. The activity of manuka honey is largely due to the presence of methylglyoxal (MGO), which is produced non-enzymatically from dihydroxyacetone (DHA) present in manuka nectar. The aims of the current study were to chemically quantify the compounds contributing to antibacterial activity in a collection of Australian Leptospermum honeys, to assess the relationship between MGO and NPA in these samples, and to determine whether NPA changes during honey storage. Eighty different Leptospermum honey samples were analysed, and therapeutically useful NPA was seen in samples derived from species including L. liversidgei and L. polygalifolium. Exceptionally high levels of up to 1100 mg/kg MGO were present in L. polygalifolium honey samples sourced from the Northern Rivers region in NSW and Byfield, QLD, with considerable diversity among samples. There was a strong positive relationship between NPA and MGO concentration, and DHA was present in all of the active honey samples, indicating a potential for ongoing conversion to MGO. NPA was stable, with most samples showing little change following seven years of storage in the dark at 4°C. This study demonstrates the potential for Australian Leptospermum honey as a wound care product, and argues for an extension of this analysis to other Leptospermum species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The pharynx is a common site of gonorrhoea among men who have sex with men (MSM) and may serve as a reservoir for infection, with saliva implicated in transmission possibly through oral sex, kissing, and rimming. Reducing sexual activities involving saliva may reduce pharyngeal gonorrhoea. This study aimed to explore MSM’s views and knowledge of pharyngeal gonorrhoea and their willingness to change saliva transmitting sexual practices. MSM were also asked their views on using alcohol-containing mouthwash to potentially reduce transmission. Methods: Using a qualitative descriptive approach, 30 MSM who were part of a larger study (GONE) conducted at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre agreed to take part in semi-structured interviews between 14th May and 8th September 2015. The 10 interviews conducted face to face and 20 by telephone, lasted between 20–45 minutes. Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. Results: Most men considered pharyngeal gonorrhoea to be a non-serious sexually transmitted infection and attributed transmission primarily to oral sex. Almost all men reported they would not stop kissing, oral sex, or consider using condoms for oral sex to reduce their risk of pharyngeal gonorrhoea. Kissing and oral sex were commonly practised and considered enjoyable low risk sexual activities. Men were more likely to consider stopping sexual activities they did not enjoy or practice often, in particular insertive rimming. If proven effective, the majority of men reported they would use alcohol-containing mouthwash to reduce or prevent their risk of pharyngeal gonorrhoea. Conclusion: Findings from this study suggest MSM are unlikely to stop saliva transmitting sexual practices they enjoy and consider low risk. Men would, however, consider using alcohol-containing mouthwash if found to be effective, highlighting the importance of exploring innovative strategies to reduce pharyngeal gonorrhoea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus is globally wide-spread and causes significant disease in humans and animals. The evolution of West Nile virus Kunjin subtype in Australia (WNVKUN) was investigated using archival samples collected over a period of 50 years. Based on the pattern of fixed amino acid substitutions and time-stamped molecular clock analyses, a single long-term lineage (or topotype) was inferred. This implies that a bottleneck exists such that regional strains eventually die out and are replaced with strains from a single source. This was consistent with current hypotheses regarding the distribution of WNVKUN, whereby the virus is enzootic in northern Australia and is disseminated to southern states by water-birds or mosquitoes after flooding associated with above average rainfall. In addition, two previous amino acid changes associated with pathogenicity, an N-Y-S glycosylation motif in the envelope protein and a phenylalanine at amino acid 653 in the RNA polymerase, were both detected in all isolates collected since the 1980s. Changes primarily occurred due to stochastic drift. One fixed substitution each in NS3 and NS5, subtly changed the chemical environment of important functional groups, and may be involved in fine-tuning RNA synthesis. Understanding these evolutionary changes will help us to better understand events such as the emergence of the virulent strain in 2011. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite many studies on the effects of heat on mental health, few studies have examined humidity. In order to investigate the relationship among heat, humidity and mental health, we matched data from the Social, Economic and Environmental Factors (SEEF) project with gridded daily temperature and water vapour pressure data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Logit models were employed to describe the associations among heat (assessed using temperature, °C), humidity (assessed using vapour pressure, hPa) and two measures of mental health, (i) high or very high distress (assessed using K10 scores ≥ 22) and (ii) having been treated for depression or anxiety. We found a one-unit increase in temperature and vapour pressure was associated with an increase in the occurrence of high or very high distress by 0.2% (p < 0.001, 99% CI: 0.1–0.3%) and 0.1% (p < 0.001, 99% CI: 0.0–0.3%) respectively. However, when humidity rose to the 99th percentile of the sample, the estimated marginal effect of heat was more than doubled (0.5%, p < 0.001, 99% CI: 0.2–0.7%). Neither heat nor humidity was related to having been treated for depression or anxiety in the last month. Humidity compounds the negative association between hot weather and mental health and thus should be taken into account when reforming the health care system to respond to the challenge of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic debris in the world’s oceans and coastal environments is a pervasive global issue that has both direct and indirect impacts on avifauna. The number of bird species affected, the feeding ecologies associated with an increased risk of debris ingestion, and selectivity of ingested debris have yet to be investigated in most of Australia’s coastal and marine birds. With this study we aim to address the paucity of data regarding marine debris ingestion in Australian coastal and marine bird species. We investigated which Australian bird groups ingest marine debris, and whether debris-ingesting groups exhibit selectivity associated with their taxonomy, habitat or foraging methods. Here we present the largest multispecies study of anthropogenic debris ingestion in Australasian avifauna to date. We necropsied and investigated the gastrointestinal contents of 378 birds across 61 species, collected dead across eastern Australia. These species represented nine taxonomic orders, five habitat groups and six feeding strategies. Among investigated species, thirty percent had ingested debris, though ingestion did not occur uniformly within the orders of birds surveyed. Debris ingestion was found to occur in orders Procellariiformes, Suliformes, Charadriiformes and Pelecaniformes, across all surveyed habitats, and among birds that foraged by surface feeding, pursuit diving and search-by-sight. Procellariiformes, birds in pelagic habitats, and surface feeding marine birds ingested debris with the greatest frequency. Among birds which were found to ingest marine debris, we investigated debris selectivity and found that marine birds were selective with respect to both type and colour of debris. Selectivity for type and colour of debris significantly correlated with taxonomic order, habitat and foraging strategy. This study highlights the significant impact of feeding ecology on debris ingestion among Australia’s avifauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The 12-item Partners in Health scale (PIH) was developed in Australia to measure self-management behaviour and knowledge in patients with chronic diseases, and has undergone several changes. Our aim was to assess the construct validity and reliability of the latest PIH version in Dutch COPD patients. Methods: The 12 items of the PIH, scored on a self-rated 9-point Likert scale, are used to calculate total and subscale scores (knowledge; coping; recognition and management of symptoms; and adherence to treatment). We used forward-backward translation of the latest version of the Australian PIH to define a Dutch PIH (PIH(Du)). Mokken Scale Analysis and common Factor Analysis were performed on data from a Dutch COPD sample to investigate the psychometric properties of the Dutch PIH; and to determine whether the four-subscale solution previously found for the original Australian PIH could be replicated for the Dutch PIH. Results: Two subscales were found for the Dutch PIH data (n = 118); 1) knowledge and coping; 2) recognition and management of symptoms, adherence to treatment. The correlation between the two Dutch subscales was 0.43. The lower-bound of the reliability of the total scale equalled 0.84. Factor analysis indicated that the first two factors explained a larger percentage of common variance (39.4% and 19.9%) than could be expected when using random data (17.5% and 15.1%). Conclusion: We recommend using two PIH subscale scores when assessing self-management in Dutch COPD patients. Our results did not support the four-subscale structure as previously reported for the original Australian PIH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective(s): Describe unintentional drowning deaths in rivers, creeks and streams (rivers) in Australia and identify risk factors to inform prevention. Design & Setting: This study is a cross-sectional, total population audit of all unintentional fatal drownings in Australian rivers between 1-July-2002 and 30-June-2012 using Australian coronial data. A modified Bonferroni test has been applied, deeming statistical significance p<0.03 and p<0.04 respectively. Results: Rivers (n = 770; 26.6%) were the leading location among the 2,892 people who died from unintentional fatal drowning. This is a rate of 0.37/100,000 people / annum. Within river drowning deaths common groups include; males (80.4%), adults (85.3%), adults who have consumed alcohol (25.5%), people who fell in (21.3%), people involved in non-aquatic transport incidents (18.2%) and locals (74.0%). Children were 1.75 times more likely than adults (p<0.04) to drown in rivers as a result of a fall and adults 1.50 times more likely to drown in rivers as a result of watercraft incidents when compared to children. When compared to males, females were 2.27 and 4.45 times respectively more likely to drown in rivers as a result of incidents involving non-aquatic transport (p<0.04) and being swept away by floodwaters (p<0.04). Males were 2.66 and 4.27 times respectively more likely to drown in rivers as a result of watercraft incidents (p<0.04) and as a result of jumping in (p<0.04) when compared to females. Conclusion(s): While rivers are the leading location for drowning in Australia, little is understood about the risks. This study has identified key groups (males, adults, locals) and activities. While males were more likely to drown, the risk profile for females differed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Herpes zoster (HZ) is a common condition that increases in incidence with older age but vaccines are available to prevent the disease. However, there are limited data estimating the health system burden attributable to herpes zoster by age. Methods: In this study, we quantified excess healthcare resource usage associated with HZ during the acute/sub-acute period of disease (21days before to 90 days after onset) in 5952 cases and an equal number of controls matched on age, sex, and prior healthcare resource usage. Estimates were adjusted for potential confounders in multivariable regression models. Using population-based estimates of HZ incidence, we calculated the age-specific excess number of health service usage events attributable to HZ in the population. Results: Per HZ case, there was an average of 0.06 (95% CI 0.04–0.08) excess hospitalisations, 1.61 (95% CI 1.51–1.69) excess general practitioner visits, 1.96 (95% CI 1.86–2.15) excess prescriptions filled and 0.11 (95% CI 0.09–0.13) excess emergency department visits. The average number of healthcare resource use events, and the estimated excess per 100,000 population increased with increasing age but were similar for men and women, except for higher rates of hospitalisation in men. The excess annual HZ associated burden of hospitalisations was highest in adults ≥80 years (N = 2244, 95%CI 1719–2767); GP visits was highest in those 60–69 years (N = 50567, 95%CI 39958–61105), prescriptions and ED visits were highest in 70–79 years (N = 50524, 95%CI 40634–60471 and N = 2891, 95%CI 2319–3449 respectively). Conclusions: This study provides important data to establish the healthcare utilisation associated with HZ against which detailed cost-effectiveness analyses of HZ immunisation in older adults can be conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a major health problem. Globally it is responsible for the most years lived with disability. The most problematic type of LBP is chronic LBP (pain lasting longer than 3 mo); it has a poor prognosis and is costly, and interventions are only moderately effective. Targeting interventions according to risk profile is a promising approach to prevent the onset of chronic LBP. Developing accurate prognostic models is the first step. No validated prognostic models are available to accurately predict the onset of chronic LBP. The primary aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to estimate the risk of chronic LBP.Methods and Findings: We used the PROGRESS framework to specify a priori methods, which we published in a study protocol. Data from 2,758 patients with acute LBP attending primary care in Australia between 5 November 2003 and 15 July 2005 (development sample, n = 1,230) and between 10 November 2009 and 5 February 2013 (external validation sample, n = 1,528) were used to develop and externally validate the model. The primary outcome was chronic LBP (ongoing pain at 3 mo). In all, 30% of the development sample and 19% of the external validation sample developed chronic LBP. In the external validation sample, the primary model (PICKUP) discriminated between those who did and did not develop chronic LBP with acceptable performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.66 [95% CI 0.63 to 0.69]). Although model calibration was also acceptable in the external validation sample (intercept = -0.55, slope = 0.89), some miscalibration was observed for high-risk groups. The decision curve analysis estimated that, if decisions to recommend further intervention were based on risk scores, screening could lead to a net reduction of 40 unnecessary interventions for every 100 patients presenting to primary care compared to a "treat all" approach. Limitations of the method include the model being restricted to using prognostic factors measured in existing studies and using stepwise methods to specify the model. Limitations of the model include modest discrimination performance. The model also requires recalibration for local settings.Conclusions: Based on its performance in these cohorts, this five-item prognostic model for patients with acute LBP may be a useful tool for estimating risk of chronic LBP. Further validation is required to determine whether screening with this model leads to a net reduction in unnecessary interventions provided to low-risk patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Core Goodeniaceae is a clade of ~330 species primarily distributed in Australia. Considerable variation in flower morphology exists within this group and we aim to use geometric morphometrics to characterize this variation across the two major subclades: Scaevola sensu lato (s.l.) and Goodenia s.l., the latter of which was hypothesized to exhibit greater variability in floral symmetry form. We test the hypothesis that floral morphological variation can be adequately characterized by our morphometric approach, and that discrete groups of floral symmetry morphologies exist, which broadly correlate with subjectively determined groups. From 335 images of 44 species in the Core Goodeniaceae, two principal components were computed that describe >98% of variation in all datasets. Increasing values of PC1 ventralize the dorsal petals (increasing the angle between them), whereas increasing values of PC2 primarily ventralize the lateral petals (decreasing the angle between them). Manipulation of these two morphological “axes” alone was sufficient to recreate any of the general floral symmetry patterns in the Core Goodeniaceae. Goodenia s.l. exhibits greater variance than Scaevola s.l. in PC1 and PC2, and has a significantly lower mean value for PC1. Clustering clearly separates fan-flowers (with dorsal petals at least 120° separated) from the others, whereas the distinction between pseudo-radial and bilabiate clusters is less clear and may form a continuum rather than two distinct groups. Transitioning from the average fan-flower to the average non-fan-flower is described almost exclusively by PC1, whereas PC2 partially describes the transition between bilabiate and pseudo-radial morphologies. Our geometric morphometric method accurately models Core Goodeniaceae floral symmetry diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Materials and Methods: In this paper, we propose a theoretical model based upon previous studies about personal and social network dynamics of job performance. We provide empirical support for this model using real-world data within the context of the Australian radiology profession. An examination of radiologists’ professional network topology through structural-positional and relational dimensions and radiologists’ personal characteristics in terms of knowledge, experience and self-esteem is provided. Thirty one breast imaging radiologists completed a purpose designed questionnaire regarding their network characteristics and personal attributes. These radiologists also independently read a test set of 60 mammographic cases: 20 cases with cancer and 40 normal cases. A Jackknife free response operating characteristic (JAFROC) method was used to measure the performance of the radiologists’ in detecting breast cancers. Results: Correlational analyses showed that reader performance was positively correlated with the social network variables of degree centrality and effective size, but negatively correlated with constraint and hierarchy. For personal characteristics, the number of mammograms read per year and self-esteem (self-evaluation) positively correlated with reader performance. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis indicated that the combination of number of mammograms read per year and network’s effective size, hierarchy and tie strength was the best fitting model, explaining 63.4% of the variance in reader performance. The results from this study indicate the positive relationship between reading high volumes of cases by radiologists and expertise development, but also strongly emphasise the association between effective social/professional interactions and informal knowledge sharing with high performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk adjusted mortality for intensive care units (ICU) is usually estimated via logistic regression. Random effects (RE) or hierarchical models have been advocated to estimate provider risk-adjusted mortality on the basis that standard estimators increase false outlier classification. The utility of fixed effects (FE) estimators (separate ICU-specific intercepts) has not been fully explored. Methods: Using a cohort from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 2009–2010, the model fit of different logistic estimators (FE, random-intercept and random-coefficient) was characterised: Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC; lower values better), receiver-operator characteristic curve area (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic. ICU standardised hospital mortality ratios (SMR) and 95%CI were compared between models. ICU site performance (FE), relative to the grand observation-weighted mean (GO-WM) on odds ratio (OR), risk ratio (RR) and probability scales were assessed using model-based average marginal effects (AME). Results: The data set consisted of 145355 patients in 128 ICUs, years 2009 (47.5%) & 2010 (52.5%), with mean(SD) age 60.9(18.8) years, 56% male and ICU and hospital mortalities of 7.0% and 10.9% respectively. The FE model had a BIC = 64058, AUC = 0.90 and an H-L statistic P-value = 0.22. The best-fitting random-intercept model had a BIC = 64457, AUC = 0.90 and H-L statistic P-value = 0.32 and random-coefficient model, BIC = 64556, AUC = 0.90 and H-L statistic P-value = 0.28. Across ICUs and over years no outliers (SMR 95% CI excluding null-value = 1) were identified and no model difference in SMR spread or 95%CI span was demonstrated. Using AME (OR and RR scale), ICU site-specific estimates diverged from the GO-WM, and the effect spread decreased over calendar years. On the probability scale, a majority of ICUs demonstrated calendar year decrease, but in the for-profit sector, this trend was reversed. Conclusions: The FE estimator had model advantage compared with conventional RE models. Using AME, between and over-year ICU site-effects were easily characterised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]