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Estimation of major flood flows is needed in the design and operation of large water infrastructure. This paper presents a simple probabilistic model (PM) that can be used to derive "easy to apply" prediction equations for estimation of major flood flows. The proposed method assumes that the maximum observed flood data over a large number of sites in a region can be pooled together by accounting for the across-site variations in the mean and standard deviation values. The method is developed and tested in this paper using data from 227 catchments across Victoria and NSW. The application to ungauged catchments involves the development of prediction equations using generalised least squares regression for the mean and coefficient of variation of the annual maximum flood series as a function of catchment characteristics. An independent test shows that the PM provides quite reasonable design flood estimation in the study area for average recurrence intervals in the range of 20 to 200 years, with median relative error values (compared to at-site flood frequency estimates) in the range of 10% to 35%. The method is under further development, eg. consideration of the inter-station correlation in pooling the standardised data from the nearby stations and comparison of results with the rainfall-based methods. The method has the potential to derive regional flood prediction equations for major floods by pooling the flood data from all the Australian states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is an important pest of sheep in Australia and other parts of the world. However, the paucity of information on many fundamental molecular aspects of this species limits the ability to exploit functional genomics techniques for the discovery of new drug targets for its control. The present study aimed to facilitate gene expression studies in this species by identifying the most suitable reference genes for normalization of mRNA expression data. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed with 11 genes across RNA samples from eggs, L1, L3, pupae and adult life stages, and two normalization programs, Normfinder and geNorm, were then applied to the data. The results showed an ideal set of genes ( 18S rRNA, 28S rRNA, GST1, β-tubulin and RPLPO) for data normalization across all life stages. The most suitable reference genes for studies within specific life stages were also identified. GAPDH was shown to be a poor reference gene. The reference gene recommendations in this study will be of use to laboratories investigating gene expression in L. cuprina and related blowfly species [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patterns generated from ecological surveys are rarely tested in similar habitats to assess the accuracy of predictions. Testing empirically derived predictions provides a strong tool for establishing the consistency of general patterns in ecology. We test the consistency of beetle community associations with habitat complexity in open canopy forests and make both community and morphospecies-level comparisons with results from a previous study. We use Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVIs) from remote sensing as a surrogate for habitat complexity. The positive relationships between NDVIs and site-based beetle species richness and abundance were consistent in open canopy forests both south and north of Sydney, Australia. NDVIs were also useful for predicting differences in beetle composition in open canopy forests. Taxon-specific responses to NDVI differences in ‘southern forests’ were very similar to responses in ‘northern forests’, most likely reflecting beetle trophic roles. This study shows that NDVIs can be used as rapid biodiversity indicators, when integrated with identified faunal responses to vegetation structure, provided that the lower vegetation strata may be measured by remote sensing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the problem of inducing low-risk individuals of all ages to buy private health insurance in Australia. Our proposed subsidy scheme improves upon the age-based penalty scheme under the current “Australian Lifetime Cover” (LTC) scheme. We generate an alternative subsidy profile that obviates adverse selection in private health insurance markets with mandated, age-based, community rating. Our proposal is novel in that we generate subsidies that are both risk- and age-specific, based upon actual risk probabilities. The approach we take may prove useful in other jurisdictions where the extant law mandates community rating in private health insurance markets. Furthermore, our approach is useful in jurisdictions that seek to maintain private insurance to complement existing universal public systems.The Geneva Papers (2006) 31, 705–719. doi:10.1057/palgrave.gpp.2510099 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comparative salience of attitudes, normative influences, and perceptions of the ease or difficulty of engaging in marijuana use was examined in 91 adolescents from three subsamples: those living in Nimbin, Australia, where marijuana use appears to have become normalized, a control group, and a group of homeless adolescents, surveyed in 1997. There were no differences between two of the groups in relation to their attitudes towards marijuana, and no differences in perceived access to the drug. For those who intended using marijuana, personal beliefs were significantly more salient than beliefs about what important others thought they should do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental gradients or biophysical parameters such as climate, topography and geology drive landscape-scale vegetation structure, species distribution and productivity. These gradients have the potential to provide detailed, fine-scale spatial prediction of the accumulation of bushfire fuels and hence fire hazard by elucidating patterns in field information in a consistent and repeatable way. Rapid visual assessment of bushfire fuel hazard via ratings provides fire and land management agencies with a measure of the probability of first attack success and general suppression difficulty of bushfires at a location. This study used generalised additive modelling to examine how measures of fuel hazard, recorded for locations in New South Wales, Australia, varied in response to environmental gradients and whether these gradients could be used to predict fuel hazard at a landscape scale. We found that time since last fire, temperature and precipitation were strong predictors of fuel hazard. Our model predictions for fuel hazard outperformed current operational methods; however, both methods tended to overestimate lower fuel hazard and underestimate higher fuel hazard. Biophysical modelling of fuel hazard provides significant advancement for predicting fuel hazard. These models have the capability to be improved and developed as additional fuel hazard data, fire history mapping and remote sensing of environmental variables advance both spatially and temporally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]