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Fire is a dominant ecological force shaping many faunal communities globally. Fire affects fauna either directly, such as by killing individuals, or indirectly, such as by modifying vegetation structure. Vegetation structure itself also modulates fire frequency and intensity. As such, faunal responses to fire need to be seen through the lens of variable fire activity and vegetation structure. Here, we incorporate information on fire activity and vegetation structure to enhance an understanding of the response of ants to long‐term (17‐year) experimental fire treatments in an extremely fire‐prone tropical savanna in northern Australia. Previous analysis revealed limited divergence in ant communities after 5 years of experimental fire treatment. Hence, we first investigated the extent to which ant communities diverged over a subsequent 12 years of treatment. We then assessed the relative contribution of fire treatment, cumulative fire intensity (fire activity), and woody cover to responses of ant species frequency of occurrence, richness, and composition. We found that, even after 17 years, fire treatments explained little variation in any ant response variable. In contrast, woody cover was a strong predictor for all of them, while fire activity was a moderate predictor for abundance and richness. Ant species occurrence and richness increased in open habitats receiving higher levels of fire activity, compared with plots with higher vegetation cover experiencing low (or no) fire activity. Moreover, species composition differed between plots with high and low vegetation cover. Our findings provide experimental support to the principle that the effects of fire on fauna are primarily indirect, via its effect on vegetation structure. Furthermore, our results show that a "uniform" fire regime does not have uniform impacts on the ant fauna, because of variability imposed by interactions between vegetation structure and fire activity. This helps to explain why there is often a weak relationship between pyrodiversity and biodiversity, and it lessens the need for active management of pyrodiversity to maintain biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An emerging research program on population and geographic range dynamics of Australia's mammals illustrates an approach to better understand and respond to geographic range collapses of threatened wildlife in general. In 1788, Europeans colonized an Australia with a diverse and largely endemic mammal fauna, where many species that are now extinct or threatened were common and widespread. Subsequent population declines, range collapses and extinctions were caused by introduced predators and herbivores, altered land use, modified fire regimes and the synergies between these threats. Declines in population and range size continue for many Australian mammals despite legislative protection and conservation interventions. Here, we propose an approach that integrates museum data and other historical records into process‐explicit macroecological models to better resolve mammal distributions and abundances as they were at European arrival. We then illustrate how this integrative approach can identify the likely synergistic mechanisms causing mammal population declines across these and other landscapes. This emerging research approach, undertaken with fine temporal and spatial resolution, but at large geographic scales, will provide valuable insights into the different pathways to, and drivers of, extinction. Such insights may, in turn, underpin conservation strategies based on a process‐explicit understanding of population decline and range collapse under alternative scenarios of impending climate and environmental change. Given that similar information is available for other regional biotas, the approach we describe here can be adapted to conserve threatened wildlife in other regions across the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical savannas are characterized by high primary productivity and high fire frequency, such that much of the carbon captured by vegetation is rapidly returned to the atmosphere. Hence, there have been suggestions that management‐driven reductions in savanna fire frequency and/or severity could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in tree biomass. However, a key knowledge gap is the extent to which savanna tree biomass will respond to modest shifts in fire regimes due to plausible, large‐scale management interventions. Here, we: (1) characterize relationships between the frequency and severity of fires and key demographic rates of savanna trees, based on long‐term observations in vegetation monitoring plots across northern Australia; (2) use these relationships to develop a process‐explicit demographic model describing the effects of fire on savanna tree populations; and (3) use the demographic model to address the question: to what extent is it feasible, through the strategic application of prescribed burning, to increase tree biomass in Australian tropical savannas? Our long‐term tree monitoring dataset included observations of 12,344 tagged trees in 236 plots, monitored for between 3 and 24 years. Analysis of this dataset showed that frequent high‐severity fires significantly reduced savanna tree recruitment, survival, and growth. Our demographic model suggested that: (1) despite the negative effects of frequent high‐severity fires on demographic rates, savanna tree biomass appears to be suppressed by only a relatively small amount by contemporary fire regimes, characterized by a mix of low‐ to high‐severity fires; and (2) plausible, management‐driven reductions in the frequency of high‐severity fires are likely to lead to increases in tree biomass of about 11.0 t DM ha−1 (95% CI: −1.2–20.8) over a century. Accounting for this increase in carbon storage could generate significant carbon credits, worth, on average, three times those generated annually by current greenhouse gas (methane and nitrous oxide) abatement projects, and has the potential to significantly increase the economic viability of fire/carbon projects, thereby promoting ecologically sustainable management of tropical savannas in Australia and elsewhere. This growing industry has the potential to bring much‐needed economic activity to savanna landscapes, without compromising important natural and cultural values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predation by feral cats (Felis catus) has caused the extinction of many native species in Australia and globally. There is growing evidence that the impacts of feral cats can be amplified in post‐fire environments, as cats are drawn to hunt in or around recently burnt areas and are also more effective hunters in open habitats. In 2018–2019, we established arrays of camera traps to estimate the abundance of feral cats on Kangaroo Island, South Australia. Much of the island (including five of our seven survey sites) was subsequently burnt in a severe wildfire (December 2019–February 2020). We re‐sampled the sites 3–8 months post‐fire (seven sites) and 11–12 months post‐fire (three sites). At two unburnt sites sampled post‐fire, it was possible to produce density estimates of cats using a spatially explicit capture–recapture approach. Where estimating density was not possible (due to low detections or individual cats not being distinguishable), the number of individuals and percentage of trap nights with detections was compared between the sampling periods. Some low‐level cat control occurred within 2 km of three of the seven arrays (all within the burn scar) within 3 months of the fire. Across the five burnt sites, there was a decline in cat detections post‐fire (including those without post‐fire cat control). At 3–8 months post‐fire, there was, on average, a 57% reduction in the number of individual cats, and a 65% reduction in the number of nights with cat detections, relative to pre‐fire levels. Although cat detections declined following the fire, reduced population sizes of prey species and reduced cover as a result of the fire might still mean that cat predation is a threat to some surviving prey species. Management that reduces feral cat predation pressure on wildlife following wildfire should enhance the likelihood of post‐fire wildlife persistence and recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's tropical savannas typically support high biomass of diverse grazing herbivores that depend on a highly fluctuating resource: high-quality forage. An annual wet–dry cycle, fire and herbivory combine to influence forage quality and availability throughout the year. In the savannas of northern Australia, a depauperate suite of large native (marsupial) herbivores (wallaroos [Osphranter spp.] and the agile wallaby [Notamacropus agilis]) compete for resources with non-native large herbivores introduced in the late nineteenth century, particularly bovines (feral and managed cattle [Bos spp.] and feral water buffalo [Bubalus bubalis]) that now dominate the landscape. Anecdotal reports of recent population declines of large macropods and negative impacts of bovines highlight the need to better understand the complex relationship between forage, fire and abundance of native and introduced large herbivores. The pyric herbivory conceptual model, which posits complex feedbacks between fire and herbivory and was developed outside Australia, predicts that native and introduced large herbivores will both respond positively to post-fire forage production in Australian savannas where they co-occur. We used grazing exclosures, forage biomass and nutrient analyses and motion-sensor camera-trapping to evaluate the overall robustness of the pyric herbivory model in the Australian context, specifically whether forage quantity and quality are impacted by herbivory, season and fire activity, and which forage attributes most influence large grazing herbivore abundance. Forage quantity, as measured by live, dead and total herbaceous biomass and proportion of biomass alive, was higher inside herbivore exclosures, even at relatively low densities of herbivores. Forage quality, as measured by fibre content, was not affected by herbivory, however, crude protein content of live herbaceous biomass was greater outside herbivore exclosures. Recent fire was an important predictor of all measures of forage quantity and quality. Recent fire occurrence decreased overall quantity (biomass) but increased quality (decreased fibre content and increased crude protein content); late dry season fires resulted in forage with the highest crude protein content. The predictions of the pyric herbivory conceptual model are consistent with observations of the feeding behaviour of introduced bovines and some large macropods in northern Australian savannas, lending support to the global generality of pyric herbivory in fire-prone grassy biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the ongoing collapse of native mammal populations across northern Australia, the paucity of robust estimates of population density limits our capacity to identify and understand population change. Here we aimed to provide the first estimates of native mammal density on the Tiwi Islands - one of Australia's largest remaining refuge areas for native mammals. We conducted intensive live-trapping at four sites that represent varying combinations of fire frequency, feral cat density and feral herbivore presence. We used spatially-explicit capture-recapture models to investigate the density of common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) and northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus). Compared with mainland northern Australia, populations of common brushtail possum and northern brown bandicoot have remained relatively healthy on the Tiwi Islands. Common brushtail possum density was significantly higher on Bathurst Island (1.06 possum ha -1) compared with Melville Island (0.32 possum ha -1), whereas northern brown bandicoot density varied across all four sites (ranging from 0.04 to 0.34 bandicoot ha -1). Unexpectedly, the very frequently burnt Ranku site (Bathurst Island) continues to support healthy populations of both species. These density estimates provide critical information for identifying and understanding future population change for two species that have suffered marked declines across the Australian monsoon tropics. Although the lack of replication limits our ability to draw conclusions regarding the ecological constraints of these mammal populations, our density observations align with a recent conceptual model postulating that the persistence of native mammal populations across northern Australian savannas reflects a complex, but spatially-variable interplay of 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Introduced predators negatively impact biodiversity globally, with insular fauna often most severely affected. Here, we assess spatial variation in the number of terrestrial vertebrates (excluding amphibians) killed by two mammalian mesopredators introduced to Australia, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). We aim to identify prey groups that suffer especially high rates of predation, and regions where losses to foxes and/or cats are most substantial. Location: Australia. Methods: We draw information on the spatial variation in tallies of reptiles, birds and mammals killed by cats in Australia from published studies. We derive tallies for fox predation by (i) modelling continental‐scale spatial variation in fox density, (ii) modelling spatial variation in the frequency of occurrence of prey groups in fox diet, (iii) analysing the number of prey individuals within dietary samples and (iv) discounting animals taken as carrion. We derive point estimates of the numbers of individuals killed annually by foxes and by cats and map spatial variation in these tallies. Results: Foxes kill more reptiles, birds and mammals (peaking at 1071 km−2 year−1) than cats (55 km−2 year−1) across most of the unmodified temperate and forested areas of mainland Australia, reflecting the generally higher density of foxes than cats in these environments. However, across most of the continent – mainly the arid central and tropical northern regions (and on most Australian islands) – cats kill more animals than foxes. We estimate that foxes and cats together kill 697 million reptiles annually in Australia, 510 million birds and 1435 million mammals. Main conclusions: This continental‐scale analysis demonstrates that predation by two introduced species takes a substantial and ongoing toll on Australian reptiles, birds and mammals. Continuing population declines and potential extinctions of some of these species threatens to further compound Australia's poor contemporary conservation record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Half‐butt eucalypts (genera: Eucalyptus and Corymbia) have both thick outer bark at the stem base (half‐butt) conferring resistance to surface fire, and thin photosynthetic canopy bark that reduces moisture stress. Here we examine how the functional ecology of dual outer bark types influences the wide distribution of Australian half‐butt species. We evaluate the proposition that half‐butts should predominate in semi‐arid environments prone to surface fires. We measured the bark thickness, butt height relative to flame/fire char height and tree height, height of first branch, and the location and prevalence of epicormic resprouting of co‐occurring Eucalyptusminiata (half‐butt) and E. tetrodonta (fibrous bark only) individuals, across 15 sites with contrasting fire frequencies (2000–2015) in the Darwin region. Total tree height was compared with butt height for all E. miniata individuals. The survival of half‐butt and other eucalypt species, as well as non‐eucalypts, was investigated at three sites affected by intense gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus) fire. The proportion of half‐butt species in each of Australia's 85 bioregions was calculated from geographic distribution records of 618 eucalypt species. Mean annual fire frequency (1997–2010), fire type (crown or surface fires) and climate in each bioregion was determined from satellite‐derived records. Butt height at a site, including gamba grass sites, was not induced by flame height or affected by fire frequency and was approximately half the canopy height of the tree, suggesting it is internally regulated. The half‐butt E. miniata and full‐bark eucalypts were similarly resilient (survival) under surface fire conditions. Half‐butt species predominated in arid and semi‐arid bioregions characterised by surface fire, consistent with our proposition that half‐butt bark is an adaptation to surface fire, and thin photosynthetic outer canopy bark reduces moisture stress, accounting for the wide distribution of half‐butt eucalypts in arid and seasonally dry regions of Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree hollows are a critical resource for many arboreal vertebrates, including many threatened species. In northern Australia's vast tropical savannas, arboreal mammals are of particular conservation concern, as many have exhibited rapid population declines in recent decades. To understand the extent to which arboreal vertebrates compete for tree hollows in these savannas, we used motion-activated cameras to estimate rates of hollow visitation (i.e. individuals seen at the hollow entrance) and hollow use (i.e. individuals seen entering or exiting a hollow) by all vertebrate species at 29 hollows over a nine-month wet season period in the tropical savanna of Melville Island, Australia. We assessed the frequency of interactions between vertebrate species at the tree hollows. We recorded 21 vertebrate species visiting hollows, with larger hollows most frequently visited: 84% with entrance diameter > 10 cm. Larger-bodied mammal species were more likely to use larger hollows, in larger trees, at greater heights. However, smaller-bodies species also visited and used large hollows. The brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Conilurus penicillatus) used relatively shallow hollows close to the ground, and these hollows were most frequently visited by monitors (Varanus spp.) and snakes. This arboreal rodent has declined severely in recent decades, most likely due to predation by feral cats, and it is noteworthy that their hollow selection behaviour may be associated with increased predation risk. Our study highlights the importance of large tree hollows for a range of taxa in the tropical savannas of northern Australia and the potential impact of reductions in the density of large hollows on hollow-dependent species. Frequent, intense fires are a threat to large hollow-bearing trees, with appropriate fire management needed to conserve this resource and help to stem mammal declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a significant decline in arboreal mammals in northern Australia, especially in the lower rainfall region of the tropical savannas. Currently, we lack a fundamental understanding of the habitat requirements of these species to prevent further declines. We investigated how variation in habitat structure influences den‐tree selection by an arboreal, hollow‐dwelling marsupial, the savanna glider (Petaurus ariel; Gould, 1842), in northern Australia from two populations at the climatic extremes of the species' geographic range. We used traditional habitat surveys complemented by advanced terrestrial Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) technology to compare site habitat structure and subsequent den‐tree selection by P. ariel. Canopy height, total canopy cover and tree size were positively correlated with rainfall. At the higher rainfall site, P. ariel selected larger trees for denning than neighbouring trees; mean trunk diameter at breast height was 53.4 cm (95% CI: 49.6–56.8) and 33.8 cm (95% CI: 30.0–37.6), for den and neighbouring trees respectively. At the lower rainfall site, P. ariel den trees were no larger than neighbouring trees but were more likely to be Eucalyptus tectifica than any other available tree species. At both sites, P. ariel selected den trees that were more likely to be hollow bearing (through larger tree size or specific tree species). We found terrestrial LiDAR to be a useful tool for mapping fine‐scale variation in habitat structure which enabled us to account for variation in den‐tree selection between sites. However, we remained dependent on traditional habitat surveys to count hollows and identify tree species. With a better understanding of the relationship between tree size and den‐tree selection, future studies could use terrestrial LiDAR to map the probability of den‐tree availability for hollow‐dwelling species at a landscape scale. We emphasize the importance of protecting hollow‐bearing eucalypt trees for the conservation of arboreal mammals in northern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of effective fire management for biodiversity conservation is a global challenge. The highly dynamic nature of fire, the difficulty in replicating 'real‐world' fire experiments and the need to understand population changes at large spatiotemporal scales make computer simulations particularly useful for identifying optimal fire management regimes for biodiversity conservation.We aimed to develop a flexible modelling approach with which to investigate how the spatiotemporal application of fire (i.e. management scenarios) influences savanna biodiversity. We used existing data from a landscape‐scale fire experiment to develop population simulations for the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula, grassland melomys Melomys burtoni and northern brown bandicoot Isoodon macrourus across the Kapalga area of Kakadu National Park in northern Australia. We simulated how populations were expected to change between 1995 and 2015 in response to the fire patterns observed at Kapalga over this period, and under a hypothetical management scenario of extensive prescribed burning.Our models predicted a substantial decline in all three species in response to the observed fire regime at Kapalga, suggesting that the fire patterns observed at Kapalga, with the associated mechanisms and interactions with other ecological processes, were not conducive with the persistence of native mammal populations.Our prescribed burning scenario had little effect on the predicted population trajectory of the common brushtail possum and grassland melomys, but markedly improved the population trajectory of the northern brown bandicoot. These inconsistencies highlight the need for a nuanced approach to fire management across northern Australian savannas, that is tailored to local conditions and management objectives.Synthesis and applications. The modelling approach outlined here provides a basis for identifying fire patterns that are beneficial for conserving biodiversity, thereby increasing our capacity to establish clear targets for prescribed fire management. Importantly, this approach is flexible and can be easily adapted to other taxa and fire‐prone ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Investigation of realized niche contraction in declining species can help us understand how and where threats are being either mediated or tolerated across landscapes. It also provides insights into species' sensitivity to environmental change that are unable to be identified through analysis of declines in range size or abundance alone. Here, we apply the recently proposed "niche reduction hypothesis" to investigate relationships between trends in niche breadth and geographic distribution of declining species. Location: Northern Australia. Methods: We compare and contrast contemporary and historical data sets to examine the relationship between extent of occurrence (EOO) and realized niche hypervolume, and investigate changes in species' utilization of environmental space through time via generalized linear modelling and bootstrapping of historical values. We also use the "Maxent" algorithm to create and stack contemporary and historical ecological niche models (ENMs) and identify regions where resilience to threatening processes is maximized. Results: We found larger mean reductions in niche hypervolume (39%) than EOO (30.5%), with little correlation (r = 0.07) between the two measures, suggesting that contraction of realized niche breadth can be largely independent of reduction in EOO. We also identified a general set of environmental conditions towards which species' realized niches contracted. Comparison of stacked ENMs allowed us to identify regions of natural refuge where environmental conditions are associated with increased species resilience to threats, and conversely, regions where habitat suitability has declined. Main conclusions: Examining species declines from an ecological niche perspective provides a powerful tool for understanding how environmental conditions, biotic interactions and species traits shape responses to local and global environmental changes. Quantifying reductions in niche breadth is crucial as contraction to a narrower subset of environmental space can reduce a species' ability to tolerate other threats and potentially lower adaptive capacity and genetic diversity, increasing extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threatened northern brush-tailed phascogale (Phascogale pirata) is one of the most poorly known mammals in Australia. While the few available records indicate a decline in its distribution and abundance, it has not previously been subject to intensive targeted survey. Here, we trialled a specifically tailored methodology for detection of P. pirata , with the aim of informing ongoing survey and monitoring of this species. We deployed 50 motion-sensor cameras (spaced closely together in a grid 500 × 1000 m) on Melville Island (Northern Territory, Australia), between June 2018 and May 2019. Cameras were baited and secured to trees ~3 m above the ground on a bracket facing the trunk. We selected for large (>30 cm diameter at breast height [DBH]) trunks of the dominant tree species (Eucalyptus miniata , E. tetrodonta and Corymbia nesophila). We detected P. pirata 16 times on eight cameras over the duration of the study, finding that detection was most likely on large (DBH >41.5 cm) E. tetrodonta trees during the wet season. Our results indicate that survey effort for this species should be seasonally targeted and focussed on large trees. However, the efficacy of additional methods (nest boxes, Elliott traps) and a comparison between detections on arboreal versus ground-based cameras requires further investigation. We highlight the importance of conducting additional work on this species, as little is known about its ecology, population trends and threats, making it difficult to assess its conservation status. Without more targeted work, P. pirata is at risk of slipping into extinction unnoticed. The northern brush-tailed phascogale (Phascogale pirata) has likely declined across its entire mainland range (monsoonal Northern Territory), but this is difficult to quantify due to the very limited baseline data available. We conducted the first targeted survey for P. pirata on Melville Island in the Northern Territory, finding that detection was more likely on large Eucalyptus tetrodonta trees in wetter months (i.e. October–April). Our approach (using motion-sensor cameras mounted on tree trunks) may be used to determine whether populations have persisted across the historic range or (where guided by suitable habitat mapping) to search for new populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: An interaction between reduced habitat structural complexity and predation by feral cats (Felis catus) has been hypothesized as the primary driver of mammal decline in northern Australia. However, we have a limited understanding of the drivers of the distribution and abundance of feral cats at a landscape scale, including whether the occurrence of a top predator, the dingo (Canis familiaris [dingo]), limits feral cat populations. We modelled feral cat and dingo site occurrence, to provide the first broad‐scale assessment of their distributional patterns and co‐occurrence within monsoonal Australia. Location: About 370,000 km2 of monsoonal area in the Northern Territory. Methods: We surveyed 376 sites using camera traps. We used single‐ and two‐species occupancy models to investigate feral cat and dingo site occurrence and the influence of dingoes on feral cat occupancy. We included predictor variables that relate to hypotheses of predator occurrence, including both environmental and disturbance‐related variables. Results: Feral cat occurrence and dingo occurrence were best predicted by indices of habitat structural complexity; feral cat occurrence declined with increasing productivity, except in areas of relatively high fire activity (fire frequency and extent), and dingo occurrence declined with terrain ruggedness. We found no evidence that dingoes are spatially limiting feral cat occurrence. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest the protection and enhancement of habitat structural complexity at both the local and landscape scale could enable conservation managers to reduce the exposure of small‐ and medium‐sized mammals to feral cats and dingoes. This can most likely be achieved through improved fire and feral herbivore management, which is a more feasible management option than lethal predator control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Australia's savannas are among the most fire‐prone biomes on Earth and are dominated by eucalypts (Eucalyptus and Corymbia spp.). It is not clear what processes allow this group to dominate under such extreme fire frequencies and whether a superior ability to compete for nutrients and water might play a role. There is evidence that eucalypts are adapted to frequent fires; juvenile eucalypts escape the fire trap by growing rapidly in height between fires. However, non‐eucalypts are less able to escape the fire trap and tend to have stand structures strongly skewed toward suppressed juveniles. The mechanisms that drive these contrasting fire responses are not well understood. Here, we describe the results of a controlled glasshouse seedling experiment that evaluated the relative importance of nutrient and water availability in determining height growth and biomass growth of two eucalypt and one noneucalypt tree species, common in northern Australian savannas. We demonstrate that growth of eucalypt seedlings is particularly responsive to nutrient addition. Eucalypt seedlings are able to rapidly utilize soil nutrients and accumulate biomass at a much greater rate than noneucalypt seedlings. We suggest that a seasonal spike in nutrient availability creates a nutrient‐rich microsite that allows eucalypt seedlings to rapidly gain height and biomass, increasing their likelihood of establishing successfully and reaching a fire‐resistant size. Our results extend our understanding of how eucalypts dominate northern Australian savannas under extremely high fire frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mammals comprise the bulk of the diet of free‐ranging domestic cats Felis catus (defined as including outdoor pet cats, strays, and feral cats) in most parts of their global range. In Australia, predation by introduced feral cats has been implicated in the extinction of many mammal species, and in the ongoing decline of many extant species.Here, we collate a wide range of records of predation by cats (including feral and pet cats) on Australian mammals and model traits of extant, terrestrial, native mammal species associated with the relative likelihood of cat predation. We explicitly seek to overcome biases in such a continental‐scale compilation by excluding possible carrion records for larger species and accounting for differences in the distribution and abundance of potential prey species, as well as study effort, throughout each species' range.For non‐volant species, the relative likelihood of predation by cats was greatest for species in an intermediate weight range (peaking at ca. 400 g), in lower rainfall areas and not dwelling in rocky habitats. Previous studies have shown the greatest rates of decline and extinction in Australian mammals to be associated with these traits. As such, we provide the first continental‐scale link between mammal decline and cat predation through quantitative analysis.Our compilation of cat predation records for most extant, terrestrial, native mammal species (151 species, or 52% of the Australian species' complement) is substantially greater than previously reported (88 species) and includes 50 species listed as threatened by the IUCN or under Australian legislation (57% of Australia's 87 threatened terrestrial mammal species). We identify the Australian mammal species most likely to be threatened by predation by cats (mulgaras Dasycercus spp., kowari Dasyuroides byrnei, many smaller dasyurids and medium‐sized to large rodents, among others) and hence most likely to benefit from enhanced mitigation of cat impacts, such as translocations to predator‐free islands, the establishment of predator‐proof fenced exclosures, and broad‐scale cat poison baiting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread declines of small- to medium-sized, semi-arboreal mammals in the drier regions of Northern Australia are of global concern. These declines have been variously attributed to either disruption of available resources or increased predation pressure. We aimed to clarify causes of mammal decline in Northern Australia using a comparative methods approach, examining historical changes in the distribution of two arboreal mammals, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) and the savanna glider (Petaurus ariel), and model drivers of their current abundance. We used single-season occupancy models to describe changes in the geographic range of P. ariel and T. vulpecula based on multiple-source occurrence data, from before and after 1993. We conducted spotlighting surveys in 2016 across the mesic savannas of the Northern Territory to identify environmental correlates of the current abundance of each species. Our results show that, within northwestern Australia, the geographic range (area where the probability of occupancy was ≥ 5%) has declined by 72% for T. vulpecula and 35% for P. ariel, between the historical and contemporary periods (before and after 1993, respectively). The abundance of each species varied substantially across the study area, but high T. vulpecula abundance was associated with high shrub density. We propose that areas with high shrub density are providing refuge for T. vulpecula, due to an increase in protection from predation by feral cats (Felis catus). Regardless of the driver, conservation management within Northern Australia should concentrate efforts on maintaining or increasing shrub abundance in tropical savannas. Our findings should also be viewed as an indicator of early stages of P. ariel decline and prompt targeted monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since European settlement, many granivorous birds of northern Australia's savanna landscapes have declined. One such example, the partridge pigeon (Geophaps smithii), has suffered a significant range contraction, disappearing from at least half of its pre‐European range. Multiple factors have been implicated in this decline, including the loss of traditional Aboriginal burning practices, grazing by large exotic herbivores and predation by feral cats (Felis catus). While populations of partridge pigeon on the Tiwi Islands may be particularly important for the long‐term persistence of this species, they too may be at risk of decline. However, as a reliable method to detect this species has not yet been developed and tested, we lack the ability to identify, at an early stage, the species' decline in a given location or region. This severely limits our capacity to make informed management decisions. Here, we demonstrate that the standard camera trapping approach for native mammal monitoring in northern Australia attained an overall probability of detecting partridge pigeon greater than 0.98. We thus provide a robust estimate of partridge pigeon site occupancy (0.30) on Melville Island, the larger of the two main Tiwi Islands. The information presented here for the partridge pigeon represents a critical first step towards the development of optimal monitoring programmes with which to gauge population trajectories, as well as the response to remedial management actions. In the face of ongoing biodiversity loss, such baseline information is vital for management agencies to make informed decisions and should therefore be sought for as many species as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models are an important conservation tool; however, performance can vary with factors including data inputs and modelling method. Model outputs are often under‐evaluated for explanatory and predictive capacity. Our aim was to evaluate the capacity of existing data for seven small mammal species to provide useful inferences for management planning. Location: Bathurst and Melville (collectively the Tiwi) Islands, Northern Territory, Australia. Methods: We developed species distribution models (SDMs) with generalized linear models (GLMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs) using survey data (351 sites) of small mammals, with two sets of environmental predictors: (a) field‐study measurements and (b) available remotely sensed rasters. Predictive capacity of models was evaluated using percentage of deviance explained (%DE) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We used Marxan to evaluate the influence of different model and data types as input for identifying spatial priorities. Results: Field‐informed SDMs performed well across both modelling methods, with relatively high test AUC values (mean = 0.82, range = 0.64–0.97) and test %DE (mean = 22.5%, range = 3.5%–65.8%). Remotely sensed models performed relatively poorly, with lower test AUC values (mean = 0.7, range = 0.56–0.86) and lower test %DE (mean = 8.9%, range = 0.03%–24.9%). A notable exception was remotely sensed models for Melomys burtoni (AUC = 0.85 & 0.86, %DE = 23.3% & 24.9%, Bathurst and Melville respectively). Marxan site irreplaceability rankings demonstrated low to marginal agreement using field‐informed and remotely sensed inputs (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.3), and similarly, using GLM and BRT model inputs (0.29). Main conclusions: The occurrence of small mammals on the Tiwi Islands can be reasonably explained with field‐informed variables, but not with remotely sensed alternatives. Different models lead to different conservation priorities. Our work emphasizes the importance of thoroughly testing SDMs prior to decision‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Australia has contributed a disproportionate number of the world's mammal extinctions over the past 200 years, with the greatest loss of species occurring through the continent's southern and central arid regions. Many taxonomically and ecologically similar species are now undergoing widespread decline across the northern Australian mainland, possibly driven by predation by feral cats and changed fire regimes. Here, we report marked recent declines of native mammal species in one of Australia's few remaining areas that support an intact mammal assemblage, Melville Island, the largest island off the northern Australian coast. We have previously reported a marked decline on Melville Island of the threatened brush‐tailed rabbit‐rat (Conilurus penicillatus) over the period 2000–2015, linked to predation by feral cats. We now report a 62% reduction in small mammal trap‐success and a 36% reduction in site‐level species richness over this period. There was a decrease in trap‐success of 90% for the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), 64% for the brush‐tailed rabbit‐rat and 63% for the black‐footed tree‐rat (Mesembriomys gouldii), but no decline for the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). These results suggest that populations of native mammals on Melville Island are exhibiting similar patterns of decline to those recorded in Kakadu National Park two decades earlier, and across the northern Australian mainland more generally. Without the implementation of effective management actions, these species are likely to be lost from one of their last remaining strongholds, threatening to increase Australia's already disproportionate contribution to global mammal extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species at highest risk, while implementing protective measures to reduce the risk of extinction to such species. Existing global processes provide a graded categorisation of extinction risk. Here we seek to extend and complement those processes to focus more narrowly on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement among methods for which species were most in danger - highlighting the importance of integrating multiple approaches when considering extinction risk. Mapped distributions of the 20 most imperilled birds reveal that most are endemic to islands or occur in southern Australia. The 20 most imperilled mammals occur mostly in northern and central Australia. While there were some differences in the forecasted number of extinctions in the next 20 years among methods, all three approaches predict further species loss. Overall, we estimate that another seven Australian mammals and 10 Australian birds will be extinct by 2038 unless management improves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To investigate whether feral cats influence the distribution of Australia's largest remnant population of the threatened brush-tailed rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus and examine whether they influenced the extinction probability of C. penicillatus over a 15-year period (2000-2015). Location Melville Island, northern Australia. Methods In 2015, small mammal surveys were conducted at 88 sites across Melville Island, 86 of which had previously been surveyed in 2000-2002. We used single-season occupancy models to investigate correlates of the current distribution of C. penicillatus and dynamic occupancy models to investigate correlates of C. penicillatus local extinction. Results Our results show that C. penicillatus, which once occurred more widely across the island, is now restricted to parts of the island where feral cats are rarely detected and shrub density is high. Our results suggest that feral cats are driving C. penicillatus towards extinction on Melville Island, and hence have likely been a significant driver in the decline of this species in northern Australia more broadly. The impact of feral cats appears to be mitigated by vegetation structure. Main conclusions The ongoing development and implementation of methods to effectively reduce feral cat densities, coupled with the management of landscape processes to maintain shrub density, through fire management and the removal of large exotic herbivores, will contribute substantially to conserving this threatened species. This study demonstrates that the distribution of species can be strongly influenced by top-down factors such as predation, thereby highlighting the importance of including biotic interactions when investigating the distribution of predation-susceptible species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon markets afford potentially useful opportunities for supporting socially and environmentally sustainable land management programs but, to date, have been little applied in globally significant fire-prone savanna settings. While fire is intrinsic to regulating the composition, structure and dynamics of savanna systems, in north Australian savannas frequent and extensive late dry season wildfires incur significant environmental, production and social impacts. Here we assess the potential of market-based savanna burning greenhouse gas emissions abatement and allied carbon biosequestration projects to deliver compatible environmental and broader socio-economic benefits in a highly biodiverse north Australian setting. Drawing on extensive regional ecological knowledge of fire regime effects on fire-vulnerable taxa and communities, we compare three fire regime metrics (seasonal fire frequency, proportion of long-unburnt vegetation, fire patch-size distribution) over a 15-year period for three national parks with an indigenously (Aboriginal) owned and managed market-based emissions abatement enterprise. Our assessment indicates improved fire management outcomes under the emissions abatement program, and mostly little change or declining outcomes on the parks. We attribute improved outcomes and putative biodiversity benefits under the abatement program to enhanced strategic management made possible by the market-based mitigation arrangement. For these same sites we estimate quanta of carbon credits that could be delivered under realistic enhanced fire management practice, using currently available and developing accredited Australian savanna burning accounting methods. We conclude that, in appropriate situations, market-based savanna burning activities can provide transformative climate change mitigation, ecosystem health, and community benefits in northern Australia, and, despite significant challenges, potentially in other fire-prone savanna settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are concerns that frequent intense fires are reducing biodiversity on the Arnhem Plateau within Kakadu National Park, northern Australia. Since the 1980s, prescribed burning in the early dry season has aimed to reduce the extent of late dry season wildfires. A programme of more strategic prescribed burning has been undertaken since 2007, aiming to increase intervals between fires affecting heathland and rain forest communities., We assess the effectiveness of prescribed burning in Kakadu's Stone Country using a Landsat satellite-derived fire history (1980-2011), in terms of achieving 'tolerable fire intervals' for dominant plant communities., Our analysis indicates that fire regimes have become substantially more favourable for biodiversity since the early 1980s. Although annual extent of burning has remained unchanged, two significant changes in fire regimes have occurred over the long term: (i) a switch from late dry season dominance to early dry season dominance and (ii) an increase in the abundance of long-unburnt vegetation, both of which are likely to benefit biodiversity. Demonstrating the statistical significance of changes associated with recent, more strategic fire management (2007-2011) is limited by the short duration of this management approach, although there is evidence of increasing abundance of long-unburnt vegetation during this time., The view that the Arnhem Plateau's fire regimes are increasingly driving biodiversity loss (due to frequent late dry season wildfires) is erroneous; they are in a more benign state now than at any time over the last three decades, most likely due to extensive use of prescribed burning., Synthesis and applications. In highly fire-prone landscapes, such as savannas, prescribed burning can be an effective means of: (i) bringing forward peak fire activity to the time of year when fire conditions are relatively mild and (ii) increasing abundance of long-unburnt vegetation. These changes are likely to favour persistence of a range of fire-sensitive communities. Our case study supports the strategic use of prescribed burning to protect fire-sensitive biota within highly fire-prone landscapes throughout the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small mammal (<2 kg) numbers have declined dramatically in northern Australia in recent decades. Fire regimes, characterised by frequent, extensive, late-season wildfires, are implicated in this decline. Here, we compare the effect of fire extent, in conjunction with fire frequency, season and spatial heterogeneity (patchiness) of the burnt area, on mammal declines in Kakadu National Park over a recent decadal period. Fire extent - an index incorporating fire size and fire frequency - was the best predictor of mammal declines, and was superior to the proportion of the surrounding area burnt and fire patchiness. Point-based fire frequency, a commonly used index for characterising fire effects, was a weak predictor of declines. Small-scale burns affected small mammals least of all. Crucially, the most important aspects of fire regimes that are associated with declines are spatial ones; extensive fires (at scales larger than the home ranges of small mammals) are the most detrimental, indicating that small mammals may not easily escape the effects of large and less patchy fires. Notwithstanding considerable management effort, the current fire regime in this large conservation reserve is detrimental to the native mammal fauna, and more targeted management is required to reduce fire size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Processes allowing coexistence of trees and grasses in tropical savannas have long intrigued ecologists. Early theories focused on climatic controls, but a conceptual model has emerged suggesting that savanna trees are subject to a fire-mediated recruitment bottleneck, with frequent fires preventing recruitment of saplings into the tree layer and maintaining biomass well below its climate-determined upper bound. We propose that this conceptual model has been overemphasised in northern Australia, where tree abundance is more strongly controlled by water availability. The dominant trees, eucalypts, have a remarkable capacity to grow through the 'fire trap' to reach fire-resistant sizes. This fire tolerance makes eucalypts relatively unresponsive to management-imposed reductions in fire frequency and intensity. Other trees in these savannas are typically more fire sensitive and respond positively to such management. There are suggestions that savanna fire management could lead to increases in woody biomass, but we contend that if tree biomass is strongly limited by water availability, then potential increases in tree biomass are relatively limited, at least in relation to the dominant eucalypt component. There is potential to increase the biomass of the more fire-sensitive non-eucalypts, but the upper bound of non-eucalypt tree biomass in these eucalypt-dominated systems remains poorly understood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many mammals in Australia's tropical north are in severe decline, yet understanding of the drivers of this decline is remarkably limited. Recently, Fisher et al. ( Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2014, 23, 181−190) examined the traits that are associated with declining marsupial species in northern Australia. They concluded that, in this region, declines are most pronounced in the smallest species (those with the lowest body mass). This is in strong contrast to the significant declines that occurred earlier in central and southern Australia before the mid 20th century, which were most pronounced in medium-sized species, the so-called 'critical weight range' (35−5500 g). Here we show that Fisher et al. have misinterpreted their dataset; in northern Australia, the pattern of mammal decline in relation to body mass is remarkably similar to that in central and southern Australia, with mammal decline strongly concentrated in the critical weight range, suggesting fundamentally similar drivers between north and south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To assess hypotheses about the role of anthropogenic fire in the maintenance and origin of a fine-scale vegetation mosaic of rain forest, eucalypt savanna and grassland. Location Bunya Mountains, subtropical eastern Australia. Methods A time series of vegetation maps was compiled from historical and recent aerial photography and field surveys. Geospatial models were constructed of environmental domains for rain forest, savanna and grassland, and for areas of biome change. Grassland soils were analysed for carbon isotope ratios (δ13C), and radiocarbon (14C) dates were acquired for bulk samples from a range of depths. Results Analysis revealed weak associations between topography and the distribution of rain forest, savanna and grassland, and their patterns of recent change. Grassland occupied an environmental domain intermediate between rain forest and savanna and was more than four times as likely to occur within a matrix of rain forest rather than savanna. There was a large proportional reduction in the area of both grassland (−35%) and savanna (−19%) between 1961 and 2006 because of the expansion of rain forest. However, the greater initial extent of savanna meant that the areal loss of savanna was an order of magnitude greater than for grassland (1433 vs. 146 ha). There was no evidence of abrupt changes in δ13C in grassland soil profiles, indicating stability of the vegetation over the last 2000 years. Main conclusions There is no simple gradient in 'tree suitability' from rain forest, through savanna, to treeless grassland on the Bunya Mountains. A general absence of fire since the 19th century has greatly reduced the extent of grassy savanna and grassland formations, to the advantage of rain forest. These results support the hypothesis that the vegetation mosaic on the Bunya Mountains is a cultural artefact and testament to millennia of skilful and persistent burning. We could not conclusively reject the hypothesis that the grasslands are Pleistocene relicts that have declined throughout the Holocene; nonetheless, an explanation more consistent with the evidence overall is that the grasslands must have had periods of expansion during the Holocene, probably as a consequence of severe fires that have destroyed patches of rain forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large grazing herbivores can change fire regimes by altering fuel types and abundance, particularly in savanna biomes where the dominant fuel is grass. The use of herbivores as a fire management tool is receiving increasing consideration globally, but this intervention has a limited evidence-base and is controversial because of potential deleterious ecological effects. These issues are well illustrated by the political and scientific debate about the capacity of cattle grazing to reduce fire hazard in the Victorian Alps of Australia; there have been remarkably few scientific studies to illuminate this issue. Here we use remote sensing and geographic information system analysis to determine the effect of active grazing licences on fire severity (crown scorch) in eucalypt forests and woodlands following large fires in the Alps during the summers of 2002/2003 and 2006/2007. Our statistical analyses, which controlled for spatial autocorrelation, found crown scorch was strongly related to vegetation type but there was no evidence that cattle grazing reduced fire severity. There was some evidence that grazing could increase fire severity by possibly changing fuel arrays. Such landscape analyses are a critical approach given that large-scale grazing × fire trials are prohibitively expensive and impractical to conduct. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Many tropical savannas are undergoing a trend of increasing woody biomass, or 'woody thickening'. Management to reduce fire frequency and intensity in savannas could substantially increase the amount of carbon stored in woody biomass. We addressed two questions: (1) are northern Australian savannas thickening; and (2) to what extent, and by what demographic processes, does fire affect woody biomass accumulation? Location Three large national parks, covering 24,000 km2, in monsoonal northern Australia. Methods We examined changes in woody biomass carbon stocks - inferred from tree basal area and the density of woody understorey plants - over a 10-year period in 136 savanna monitoring plots. We statistically assessed these changes in relation to fire frequency and severity. We used a meta-analysis to identify general trends in woody cover in Australian savannas over the last half-century. Results Woody biomass carbon stocks were relatively stable across the three national parks, but rates of change were statistically indistinguishable from earlier findings of a weak thickening trend. Change was negatively correlated with fire frequency, particularly the frequency of severe fires. High frequencies of severe fires decreased rates of accumulation of biomass by existing trees (through reductions in tree growth and death of individual stems), rather than whole-tree mortality and suppression of recruitment. However, across northern Australia, our meta-analysis identified a general, albeit weak, trend of woody thickening. Main conclusions The drivers of northern Australia's weak thickening trend are uncertain, but likely candidates include increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and water availability, and pastoral intensification. We demonstrate that changes to fire management have the potential to either increase or decrease rates of woody thickening relative to any underlying trend. Understanding how savanna fires affect woody biomass, and how fire effects are mediated by climate and CO2, are essential research priorities to predict the fate of savannas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Comparative analyses of fire regimes at large geographical scales can potentially identify ecological and climatic controls of fire. Here we describe Australia's broad fire regimes, and explore interrelationships and trade-offs between fire regime components. We postulate that fire regime patterns will be governed by trade-offs between moisture, productivity, fire frequency and fire intensity. Location Australia. Methods We reclassified a vegetation map of Australia, defining classes based on typical fuel and fire types. Classes were intersected with a climate classification to derive a map of 'fire regime niches'. Using expert elicitation and a literature search, we validated each niche and characterized typical and extreme fire intensities and return intervals. Satellite-derived active fire detections were used to determine seasonal patterns of fire activity. Results Fire regime characteristics are closely related to the latitudinal gradient in summer monsoon activity. Frequent low-intensity fires occur in the monsoonal north, and infrequent, high-intensity fires in the temperate south, demonstrating a trade-off between frequency and intensity: that is, very high-intensity fires are only associated with very low-frequency fire regimes in the high biomass eucalypt forests of southern Australia. While these forests occasionally experience extremely intense fires (> 50,000 kW m−1), such regimes are exceptional, with most of the continent dominated by grass fuels, typically burning with lower intensity (< 5000 kW m−1). Main conclusions Australia's fire regimes exhibit a coherent pattern of frequent, grass-fuelled fires in many differing vegetation types. While eucalypts are a quintessential Australian entity, their contribution as a dominant driver of high-intensity fire regimes, via their litter and bark fuels, is restricted to the forests of the continent's southern and eastern extremities. Our analysis suggests that the foremost driver of fire regimes at the continental scale is not productivity, as postulated conceptually, but the latitudinal gradient in summer monsoon rainfall activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which assesses the decadal responses of eucalypt-dominated savanna to close fire regimes in Australia and Africa. The study shows the mean annual frequency of plot burning at 0.53 over the study period. It illustrates the variability of species and structural responses due to stem recruitment and juvenile declines. It also demonstrates the effect of significant regional fire regime change, though it obtains undesirable structural consequences and risks.

Using a detailed fire history collected over a 10-year period throughout a savanna landscape in northern Australia, we have addressed the question of whether fire severity, inferred from a semiquantitative fire severity index, increases with time since previous fire. There was a clear trend of fires becoming much more severe with increasing time since previous fire. Between I and 5 years following a fire, the probability of a subsequent fire being classified as 'severe' increased from 3 to 8% for early dry-season fires, and from 21 to 43% for late dry-season fires. It was clear that the strong increase in fire severity was not confined to the first 2-3 years following the previous fire, as previously suspected. These findings highlight the difficulty of reducing both fire frequency and severity in northern Australian savanna landscapes, as they imply that a negative feedback process exists between the two; that is, reducing fire frequency is likely to increase the severity of fires that do occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We (Murphy et al., 2013; Clarke et al., 2015) have recently developed a framework to understand the spatial distribution of fire regimes and plant fire-response traits at large spatial scales. We integrated a range of data sources to create a continental-scale overview of Australian pyromes from which to infer pyrogeographic drivers. Gosper et al. (in press) have criticized our approach, based on our misclassification of a vegetation type (eucalypt woodland), with distinct fire regime, in the Coolgardie bioregion of Western Australia. We argue that the intention of our integrative approach was to develop and refine conceptual models of Australian pyrogeography, not to produce a predictive map of fire regimes, and certainly not to guide local-scale fire management. Like all models, continental-scale syntheses of pyromes are imperfect, yet they still represent powerful tools for understanding the drivers of the spatial distribution of fire regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although biomass burning of savannas is recognised as a major global source of greenhouse gas emissions, quantification remains problematic with resulting regional emissions estimates often differing markedly. Here we undertake a critical assessment of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI) savanna burning emissions methodology. We describe the methodology developed for, and results and associated uncertainties derived from, a landscape-scale emissions abatement project in fire-prone western Arnhem Land, northern Australia. The methodology incorporates (i) detailed fire history and vegetation structure and fuels type mapping derived from satellite imagery; (ii) field-based assessments of fuel load accumulation, burning efficiencies (patchiness, combustion efficiency, ash retention) and N C composition; and (iii) application of standard, regionally derived emission factors. Importantly, this refined methodology differs from the NGGI by incorporation of fire seasonality and severity components, and substantial improvements in baseline data. We consider how the application of a fire management program aimed at shifting the seasonality of burning (from one currently dominated by extensive late dry season wildfires to one where strategic fire management is undertaken earlier in the year) can provide significant project-based emissions abatement. The approach has wider application to fire-prone savanna systems dominated by anthropogenic sources of ignition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. A strong relationship between the oxygen isotope composition (expressed as δ18O) of body water and relative humidity has been demonstrated for a number of mammalian herbivores with low drinking water requirements, including kangaroos. Consequently, it has been suggested that the oxygen isotope composition of preserved mammal remains may be used to reconstruct past relative humidity. Other physiological, environmental and ecological factors may also influence mammalian δ18O, thereby confounding the climatic signal, yet these factors have been rigorously examined in few taxa. 2. We examined sources of variation in the δ18O of tooth enamel, assumed to reflect δ18O of body water, of kangaroos ( Macropus spp.) collected throughout Australia. 3. Relative humidity explained a large proportion of the variation in enamel δ18O, a finding that is consistent with previous studies. However, we also found a previously unreported interaction between mean annual temperature and relative humidity. At lower temperatures, the relationship between enamel δ18O and relative humidity was much steeper than at higher temperatures. 4. This may be a consequence of the Peclét effect in plant leaves, whereby high transpiration rates diminish the 18O enrichment of bulk leaf water. It is likely that this interaction is also present in other herbivores with low drinking water requirements. 5. We found little evidence that δ18O varied consistently between molars, suggesting that a ‘weaning effect’ is either absent or swamped by seasonal variation in precipitation δ18O. 6. We suggest that the oxygen isotope composition of preserved kangaroo remains cannot be used to reconstruct relative humidity unless ambient air temperature can be reliably estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Numerous studies have examined the climatic factors that influence the abundance of C4 species within the grass flora (C4 relative species richness) in various regions throughout the world, but very few have examined the relative abundance of C4 vs. C3 grasses (C4 relative abundance). We sought to determine the climatic factors that influence C4 relative abundance throughout Australia. Location Australia (including Tasmania). Methods We measured C4 relative abundance at 168 locations and measured δ13C (the abundance of 13C relative to 12C) of the bone collagen of 779 kangaroos collected throughout Australia, as bone collagen δ13C was assumed to be proportional to the relative abundance of C4 grasses in the diet. Results Both C4 relative abundance and kangaroo bone collagen δ13C were found to have a strong positive relationship with seasonal water availability, i.e. the distribution of rainfall in the C4 vs. C3 growing seasons (76% and 69% of deviance explained, respectively). There was clear evidence that seasonal water availability was a better predictor of both C4 relative abundance and bone collagen δ13C than other climate variables such as mean annual temperature and January daily minimum temperature. However, seasonal water availability appeared to be a relatively poor predictor of C4 relative species richness, which was most closely related to January daily minimum temperature (90% of deviance explained). Main conclusions Our results highlight the relatively poor relationship between C4 relative abundance and C4 relative species richness, and suggest that these two variables may be related to different climatic factors. They also suggest that caution is required when using C4 relative species richness to infer the relative biomass and productivity of C4 grasses on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two introduced carnivores, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and domestic cat Felis catus , have had, and continue to have, major impacts on wildlife, particularly mammals, across Australia. Based mainly on the contents of almost 50,000 fox dietary samples, we provide the first comprehensive inventory of Australian mammal species known to be consumed by foxes, and compare this with a similar assessment for cats. We recorded consumption by foxes of 114 species of Australian land mammal (40% of extant species), fewer than consumed by cats (173 species). Foxes are known to consume 42 threatened mammal species (50% of Australia's threatened land mammals and 66% of those within the fox's Australian range). Reflecting the importance of mammals in their diet, foxes are known to consume a far higher proportion of Australian mammal species (40%) than of Australian birds (24%) and reptiles (16%). Both foxes and cats were most likely to consume medium-sized mammals, with the likelihood of predation by foxes peaking for mammals of ca. 280 g and by cats at ca. 130 g. For non-flying mammals, threatened species had a higher relative likelihood of predation by foxes than non-threatened species. Using trait-based modelling, we estimate that many now-extinct Australian mammal species had very high likelihoods of predation by foxes and cats, although we note that for some of these species, extinction likely pre-dated the arrival of foxes. These two predators continue to have compounding and complementary impacts on Australian mammals. Targeted and integrated management of foxes and cats is required to help maintain and recover the Australian mammal fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximising the spatiotemporal variability of prescribed fire (i.e. pyrodiversity) is often thought to benefit biodiversity. However, given mixed empirical support, the generality of the pyrodiversity hypothesis remains questionable. Here, we use a simulation experiment to explore the effects of spatiotemporal fire patterns on the population trajectories of four mammal species in a northern Australian savanna: northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), northern brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula arnhemensis), grassland melomys (Melomys burtoni), and northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Underpinned by data from a landscape-scale fire experiment, we simulated mammal population trajectories under three scenarios of fire size (ambient, small/dispersed fires, large/clumped fires) and three levels of dispersal ability (low, moderate, high) over a 21-year period across the Kapalga area of Kakadu National Park. The simulated population size of all four species declined markedly, regardless of fire spatial pattern and dispersal ability. However, the predicted final population size (i.e. number of individuals in the final timestep of the simulation) for the northern brown bandicoot, northern brushtail possum and grassland melomys were significantly influenced by fire size, with declines most severe under the small/dispersed fire scenario. Our results suggest that maximising the dispersion of small fires at the expense of disturbance refugia (such as less-frequently burnt areas) may exacerbate the severity of mammal decline. This highlights the importance of considering trade-offs between spatial (i.e. fire dispersion) and temporal (i.e. fire frequency) aspects of pyrodiversity, and the potential risks when applying fire management for biodiversity conservation without a firm understanding of the requirements of the target species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Postfire resprouting and recruitment from seed are key plant life-history traits that influence population dynamics, community composition and ecosystem function. Species can have one or both of these mechanisms. They confer resilience, which may determine community composition through differential species persistence after fire. To predict ecosystem level responses to changes in climate and fire conditions, we examined the proportions of these plant fire-adaptive traits among woody growth forms of 2880 taxa, in eight fire-prone ecosystems comprising ~ 87% of Australia's land area. Shrubs comprised 64% of the taxa. More tree (> 84%) than shrub (~ 50%) taxa resprouted. Basal, epicormic and apical resprouting occurred in 71%, 22% and 3% of the taxa, respectively. Most rainforest taxa (91%) were basal resprouters. Many trees (59%) in frequently-burnt eucalypt forest and savanna resprouted epicormically. Although crown fire killed many mallee (62%) and heathland (48%) taxa, fire-cued seeding was common in these systems. Postfire seeding was uncommon in rainforest and in arid Acacia communities that burnt infrequently at low intensity. Resprouting was positively associated with ecosystem productivity, but resprouting type (e.g. basal or epicormic) was associated with local scale fire activity, especially fire frequency. Although rainforest trees can resprout they cannot recruit after intense fires and may decline under future fires. Semi-arid Acacia communities would be susceptible to increasing fire frequencies because they contain few postfire seeders. Ecosystems dominated by obligate seeders (mallee, heath) are also susceptible because predicted shorter inter-fire intervals will prevent seed bank accumulation. Savanna may be resilient to future fires because of the adaptive advantage of epicormic resprouting among the eucalypts. The substantial non-resprouting shrub component of shrublands may decline, but resilient Eucalyptus spp. will continue to dominate under future fire regimes. These patterns of resprouting and postfire seeding provide new insights to ecosystem assembly, resilience and vulnerability to changing fire regimes on this fire-prone continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews information about field observations of vegetation productivity in Australia’s rangeland systems and identifies the need to establish a national initiative to collect net primary productivity (NPP) and biomass data for rangeland pastures. Productivity data are needed for vegetation and carbon model parameterisation, calibration and validation. Several methods can be used to estimate pasture productivity at various spatial and temporal scales, ranging from in situ measurements to satellite-based approaches and biogeochemical modelling. However, there is a barrier to implementing national vegetation and carbon modelling schemes because of the lack of digitised and readily available data derived from field observations, not because of the lack of modelling expertise. Our main goal in this paper is to explore the potential for consolidation of existing NPP and biomass databases for Australian rangelands. A protocol structure was proposed to establish a productivity database for Australia. The TERN (Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Network) national field data network for rangeland pasture productivity monitoring and modelling team could potentially coordinate the database. Government agencies and national and international research institutions could use the outputs from productivity models to inform greenhouse gas emissions and in measuring mitigation activities relevant for reporting against the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and other international obligations. Other applications include monitoring fire danger, tracking ecological restoration and protection, and estimating fodder availability. Australian researchers have the tools needed to succeed in creating such a national database and a robust community of practice to curate it, enhance it and benefit from its availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pricing greenhouse gas emissions is a burgeoning and possibly lucrative financial means for climate change mitigation. Emissions pricing is being used to fund emissions-abatement technologies and to modify land management to improve carbon sequestration and retention. Here we discuss the principal land-management options under existing and realistic future emissions-price legislation in Australia, and examine them with respect to their anticipated direct and indirect effects on biodiversity. The main ways in which emissions price-driven changes to land management can affect biodiversity are through policies and practices for (1) environmental plantings for carbon sequestration, (2) native regrowth, (3) fire management, (4) forestry, (5) agricultural practices (including cropping and grazing), and (6) feral animal control. While most land-management options available to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions offer clear advantages to increase the viability of native biodiversity, we describe several caveats regarding potentially negative outcomes, and outline components that need to be considered if biodiversity is also to benefit from the new carbon economy. Carbon plantings will only have real biodiversity value if they comprise appropriate native tree species and provide suitable habitats and resources for valued fauna. Such plantings also risk severely altering local hydrology and reducing water availability. Management of regrowth post-agricultural abandonment requires setting appropriate baselines and allowing for thinning in certain circumstances, and improvements to forestry rotation lengths would likely increase carbon-retention capacity and biodiversity value. Prescribed burning to reduce the frequency of high-intensity wildfires in northern Australia is being used as a tool to increase carbon retention. Fire management in southern Australia is not readily amenable for maximising carbon storage potential, but will become increasingly important for biodiversity conservation as the climate warms. Carbon price-based modifications to agriculture that would benefit biodiversity include reductions in tillage frequency and livestock densities, reductions in fertiliser use, and retention and regeneration of native shrubs; however, anticipated shifts to exotic perennial grass species such as buffel grass and kikuyu could have net negative implications for native biodiversity. Finally, it is unlikely that major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions arising from feral animal control are possible, even though reduced densities of feral herbivores will benefit Australian biodiversity greatly. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]