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Societal transformations for addressing climate change are intensely contested and at risk of resistance and backlash to ambitious policy action. But they are frequently modeled through heuristics such as S‐curves which abstract from such conflicts, assuming increasing returns to scale as a driver of transformations. This is the case even while scholars accept the presence of political conflict in transformation processes. Within political science and allied disciplines, the notions of policy feedback and policy coalitions have been deployed to understand how such political conflicts may be understood. But these approaches risk gravitating toward an instrumental design impulse that inadvertently downplays conflict. We argue that policy action for societal transformations should be re‐conceptualized as an unfolding series of battle‐settlement events whereby heated episodic political struggles over a certain policy object or issue play out and eventually settle in ways that structure future debates while nonetheless remaining indeterminate and open to challenge or reversal. Such an approach reflects the varied empirical experiences of climate policy action to date which include both accumulation and reversal. It also helps explain trajectories of change that are discontinuous and lurching in contrast to common images of transformation as progressive and cumulative. We illustrate this approach through two cases of unfolding societal transformation on climate change: coal phaseout in the United Kingdom and renewable energy uptake in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I argue the instrumental, paternalistic strategic culture often adopted in Australian foreign policy circles is counter-productive, preventing Australia from having productive and sustainable relationships with Pacific states. If Australian officials want to follow through on rhetorical commitments to enhance Australia's relationships in the Pacific, Australia must actively recognise the agency Pacific states have and place itself within this community of actors. Australia often positions itself as part of the 'Pacific family,' but to be a collaborative member of this family it must go beyond headline commitments and fundamentally reconsider the evolving agency of small Pacific states and how this shapes Australia's interactions with them. We can understand this through the lens of normative communities. Revisiting constructivist International Relations theory, I reexamine who is included and excluded in the communities of actors that norms apply to. This has particularly significant implications around norms of climate change action and mitigation. Australia has historically tried to water down agreements and slow-role actions in this space. The ongoing bid to host COP31 perhaps offers an opportunity to both show leadership on climate-related issues and to reconfigure assumptions around Pacific agency and address the effects this has on Australia's relationships in the Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public opinion on climate change is complex, comprising aspects such as belief, support for policies, and issue salience. This multidimensional nature of climate opinion can be accounted for by identifying "publics," each comprising people with similar climate attitudes. Climate opinion has also been found to relate strongly to political worldviews, with people holding conservative attitudes tending to have low levels of engagement with climate change. However, few studies have investigated how political worldviews relate to membership of climate publics. The current study therefore identifies climate publics in New Zealand and Australia and investigates how they relate to economic and social aspects of conservative worldviews. Using an original online survey, I find no clear link between economic conservatism and membership of climate publics. Social conservatives, however, are more likely to be members of publics with low levels of climate engagement and of "middle" publics, which accept the science of climate change but are "lukewarm" on climate action. Climate opinion appears to be more polarized in Australia than New Zealand. These results provide insight into the worldviews of people in the "mainstream" of climate opinion and suggest that only a minority of the public are demanding ambitious climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tropical savannas represent a large proportion of the area burnt each year globally, with growing evidence that management to curtail fire frequency and intensity in some of these regions can contribute to mitigation of climate change. Approximately 25% of Australia's fire-prone tropical savanna region is currently managed for carbon projects, contributing significantly to Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Aims: To improve the accuracy of Australia's national carbon accounting model (FullCAM) for reporting of fire emissions and sequestration of carbon in savanna ecosystems. Methods: Field data from Australian savannas were collated and used to calibrate FullCAM parameters for the prediction of living biomass, standing dead biomass and debris within seven broad vegetation types. Key results: Revised parameter sets and improved predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes across Australia's savanna ecosystems in response to wildfire and planned fire were obtained. Conclusions: The FullCAM model was successfully calibrated to include fire impacts and post-fire recovery in savanna ecosystems. Implications: This study has expanded the capability of FullCAM to simulate both reduced emissions and increased sequestration of carbon in response to management of fire in tropical savanna regions of Australia, with implications for carbon accounting at national and project scales. Savanna fire management has proved to be an effective mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon storage in ecosystems. In this study, we calibrate the FullCAM carbon accounting model with extensive field data to improve the model's representation of fire impacts and carbon dynamics in Australian savannas, and to facilitate carbon accounting at project to national scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supporters of hydrogen energy urge scaling up technology and reducing costs for competitiveness. This paper explores how hydrogen energy technologies (HET) are perceived by Australia's general population and considers the way members of the public imagine their role in the implementation of hydrogen energy now and into the future. The study combines a nationally representative survey (n = 403) and semi-structured interviews (n = 30). Results show age and gender relationships with self-reported hydrogen knowledge. Half of the participants obtained hydrogen information from televised media. Strong support was observed for renewable hydrogen, while coal (26%) and natural gas (41%) versions had less backing. Participants sought more safety-related information (41% expressed concern). Most felt uncertain about influencing hydrogen decisions and did not necessarily recognise they had agency beyond their front fence. Exploring the link between political identity and agency in energy decision-making is needed, with energy democracy a potentially productive direction. • Hydrogen's strongest appeal to Australians is its benefit for climate change mitigation. • Although widely accepted, there is limited knowledge about hydrogen in terms of how it is produced or used. • The more people know about hydrogen, the more willing they are to participate in the decision-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This perspective paper provides industry leaders, researchers and policy developers strategic approaches to ensure that the welfare of dairy cattle is protected at the same time as the industry increases its resilience to climate change. Farm systems and practices will evolve in response to the direct impacts of climate change and/or from responses to climate change, such as mitigation strategies to reduce dairy's greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The five domains framework (nutrition, physical environment, health, behaviour, mental state) was used to assess the potential impacts on animal welfare and strategies to minimise these impacts are outlined. Given that the future climate cannot be certain these approaches can be applied under a range of emissions pathways to (1) ensure that the effects of GHG mitigations on animal welfare are considered during their development, (2) engage with end users and the public to ensure solutions to the effects of climate change and weather variability are accepted by consumers and communities, (3) identify and measure the areas where improved animal health can contribute to reducing GHG emissions from dairy production, (4) ensure those supporting farmers to develop and manage their farm systems understand what constitutes a good quality of life for dairy cattle, (5) ensure effective surveillance of animal disease and monitoring of welfare outcomes and farm-system performance in response to climate change and GHG mitigations. Overall, these strategies require a multidisciplinary co-development approach to ensure that the welfare of dairy cattle is protected at the same time as the industry increases its resilience to the wider impacts of a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South eastern Australia is a global warming hotspot, and is also home to ~70% of Australia's population and one of Australia's largest fisheries—the South East Scalefish and Shark Fishery. This fishery spans shelf to deep waters, subtropical to temperate waters, employs many gears, and interacts with over 100 species. Despite following best practice fisheries management principles, including taking an ecosystem perspective to overall fisheries interactions, management interventions have failed to arrest or recover the decline of some focal species. Using an Atlantis ecosystem model developed for the fishery over the past 20 years, this paper presents simulations that suggest climate change may be a major contributor to the trajectories seen for a number of species—such as jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus), blue warehou (Seriolella brama), and gemfish (Rexea solandri). This kind of climate influence poses many challenges for fisheries management into the future, raising questions about what to do when climate change undermines or overrides fisheries management actions and objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community gardens, as common spaces where people gather to grow food, help foster public health, greener urban environments, life-long learning and vibrant communities. However, despite being promoted as sustainable horticulture and conservation agriculture, their soil health and carbon (C) sequestration potential, with implication for climate change mitigation, remains underexplored. This study assessed soil samples collected from raised beds (gardening area) and adjacent bare ground (control) at six community gardens in the Perth metropolitan area, Australia. These sites covered three soil mapping units (SMUs): calcareous deep sands, coloured sand and pale sands The soil in raised beds exhibited superior characteristics than surrounding urban soil including lower bulk density, higher pH buffering capacity, available nutrients including nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), cation exchange capacity (CEC), total C and microbial biomass. Notably, we estimated that raised bed soils accumulated significant levels of C in the top 10 cm layer (0.55 kg/m2 or 5.5 T/ha). Our findings also indicate no significant heavy metal contamination in any of the community garden soils. Although the global area of community gardens is marginally small, these results suggest they hold potential for carbon sequestration, especially in urban and peri-urban environments. The improved soil health and C storage potential in community garden soil are largely attributed to the regular application of compost produced within the community gardens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This perspective brings together published peer reviewed primary research on youth climate activism in Australia and provides context of the political and social landscapes in which young people are taking climate action. As the generation most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, young people all over the world have mobilised to drive a climate justice narrative to the fore of the climate movement. Climate justice framing will be applied to contextualise youth climate activism in Australia. This perspective also addresses the context-specific challenges faced by youth, including the media's role in shaping public perceptions and, anti-protest laws that restrict the right to protest. Finally, this perspective highlights the opportunities for how to support youth climate activism in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the application and advantages of remote sensing, machine learning, and mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR) as a popular proximal sensing spectroscopy tool in the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC). It underscores the practical implications and benefits of the integrated approach combining machine learning, remote sensing, and proximal sensing for SOC estimation and prediction across a range of applications, including comprehensive soil health mapping and carbon credit assessment. These advanced technologies offer a promising pathway, reducing costs and resource utilization while improving the precision of SOC estimation. We conducted a comparative analysis between MIR-predicted SOC values and laboratory-measured SOC values using 36 soil samples. The results demonstrate a strong fit (R² = 0.83), underscoring the potential of this integrated approach. While acknowledging that our analysis is based on a limited sample size, these initial findings offer promise and serve as a foundation for future research. We will be providing updates when we obtain more data. Furthermore, this paper explores the potential for commercialising these technologies in Australia, with the aim of helping farmers harness the advantages of carbon markets. Based on our study's findings, coupled with insights from the existing literature, we suggest that adopting this integrated SOC measurement approach could significantly benefit local economies, enhance farmers' ability to monitor changes in soil health, and promote sustainable agricultural practices. These outcomes align with global climate change mitigation efforts. Furthermore, our study's approach, supported by other research, offers a potential template for regions worldwide seeking similar solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Introduction: Climate change is a source of global concern that has both direct and general impacts on mental health. A recent study conducted following severe bushfires in Australia demonstrated relationships among nature connectedness, climate action, climate worry, and mental health; for example, nature connectedness was associated with climate worry, which in turn was associated with psychological distress. Methods: The present study sought to replicate those findings while building on them in two important ways: on those findings in two ways: first, test similar relationships in a different geographical context that has been mostly spared from direct impacts by acute climate events; second, we take into consideration an additional factor, climate knowledge, which has been linked to relevant factors such as climate anxiety. Results: The results of a survey completed by 327 adults revealed a similar relationship between nature connectedness and climate anxiety, and between that and psychological distress. Further mirroring those previous findings, nature connectedness was associated with both individual and collective climate action, but the relationships between them and psychological distress differed. Discussion: The proposed model was a better fit to the collected data among those with high levels of climate change knowledge than those with low levels, suggesting that such knowledge influences how the above factors relate to each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian summer heat events have become more frequent and severe in recent times. Temperature-duration-frequency (TDF) curves connect the severity of heat episodes of various durations to their frequencies and thus can be an effective tool for analysing the heat extremes. This study examines Australian heat events using data from 82 meteorological stations. TDF curves have been developed under stationary and non-stationary conditions. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is considered to estimate extreme temperatures for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. Three major climate drivers for Australia have been considered as potential covariates along with Time to develop the non-stationary TDF curves. According to the Akaike information criterion, the non-stationary framework for TDF modelling provides a better fit to the data than its stationary equivalent. The findings can be beneficial in offering new information to aid climate adaptation and mitigation at the regional level in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Mainstreaming' climate change by embedding climate change considerations in government policies, processes, and operations can bolster the realization of climate mitigation and adaptation goals and reduce risks of counter-productive actions. Some climate laws around the world now contain explicit mainstreaming duties, in parallel with emissions reduction targets and adaptation planning requirements. This article proposes a conceptual model for climate change mainstreaming in government, with two pillars. Firstly, it defines objectives of climate mainstreaming, emphasizing that mainstreaming activities occur along a spectrum of ambition towards a goal of 'mature mainstreaming'. Secondly, it proposes three complementary pathways to mature mainstreaming – regulatory, institutional, and capacity and capability-building pathways – to classify mainstreaming activities, and barriers to and enablers of mainstreaming. Grounded in empirical insights from a leading jurisdiction (Victoria, Australia), the model can assist governments to clearly articulate mainstreaming objectives and to identify, prioritize, and monitor mainstreaming initiatives to help in achieving their climate policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exacerbation of wildfires, attributed to the effects of climate change, presents substantial risks to ecological systems, infrastructure, and human well-being. In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to climate action, prioritizing the assessment and management of the occurrence and intensity of extensive wildfires is of utmost importance. In recent times, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and severity of widespread wildfires worldwide, affecting several locations, including Australia, Italy, and the United States of America. The presence of complex phenomena marked by limited predictability leads to significant negative impacts on biodiversity and human lives. The utilization of satellite-derived data with neural networks, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), is a potentially advantageous approach for augmenting the monitoring capabilities of wildfires. This research examines the generalization capability of four neural network models, namely the fully connected (FC), one-dimensional (1D) CNN, two-dimensional (2D) CNN, and three-dimensional (3D) CNN model. Each model's performance, as measured by accuracy, recall, and F1 scores, is assessed through K-fold cross-validation. Subsequently, T-statistics and p-values are computed based on these metrics to conduct a statistical comparison among the different models, allowing us to quantify the degree of similarity or dissimilarity between them. By using training data from Australia and Sicily, the performances of the trained model are evaluated on the test dataset from Oregon. The results are promising, with cross-validation on the training dataset producing mean precision, recall, and F1 scores ranging between approximately 0.97 and 0.98. Especially, the fully connected model has superior generalization capabilities, whilst the 3D CNN offers more refined and less distorted classifications. However, certain issues, such as false fire detection and confusion between smoke and shadows, persist. The aforementioned methodologies offer significant perspectives on the capabilities of neural network technologies in supporting the detection and management of wildfires. These approaches address the crucial matter of domain transferability and the associated dependability of predictions in new regions. This study makes a valuable contribution to the ongoing efforts in climate change by assisting in monitoring and managing wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoration of coastal wetlands has the potential to deliver both climate change mitigation, called blue carbon, and adaptation benefits to coastal communities, as well as supporting biodiversity and providing additional ecosystem services. Valuing carbon sequestration may incentivize restoration projects; however, it requires development of rigorous methods for quantifying blue carbon sequestered during coastal wetland restoration. We describe the development of a blue carbon accounting model (BlueCAM) used within the Tidal Restoration of Blue Carbon Ecosystems Methodology Determination 2022 of the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF), which is Australia's voluntary carbon market scheme. The new BlueCAM uses Australian data to estimate abatement from carbon and greenhouse gas sources and sinks arising from coastal wetland restoration (via tidal restoration) and aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. BlueCAM includes carbon sequestered in soils and biomass and avoided emissions from alternative land uses. A conservative modeled approach was used to provide estimates of abatement (as opposed to on‐ground measurements); and in doing so, this will reduce the costs associated with monitoring and verification for ERF projects and may increase participation in blue carbon projects by Australian landholders. BlueCAM encompasses multiple climate regions and plant communities and therefore may be useful to others outside Australia seeking to value blue carbon benefits from coastal wetland restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia has clear aspirations to become a major global exporter of hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels and as part of the drive to reduce CO2 emissions, as set out in the National Hydrogen Strategy released in 2019 jointly by the federal and state governments. In 2021, the Australian Energy Market Operator specified a grid forecast scenario for the first time entitled "hydrogen superpower". Not only does Australia hope to capitalise on the emerging demand for zero-carbon hydrogen in places like Japan and South Korea by establishing a new export industry, but it also needs to mitigate the built-in carbon risk of its export revenue from coal and LNG as major customers, such as Japan and South Korea, move to decarbonise their energy systems. This places hydrogen at the nexus of energy, climate change mitigation and economic growth, with implications for energy security. Much of the published literature on this topic concentrates on the details of what being a major hydrogen exporter will look like and what steps will need to be taken to achieve it. However, there appears to be a gap in the study of the implications for Australia's domestic energy system in terms of energy security and export economic vulnerability. The objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for the implications of becoming a major hydrogen exporter on Australia's energy system. Various green hydrogen export scenarios for Australia were compared, and the most recent and comprehensive was selected as the basis for further examination for domestic energy system impacts. In this scenario, 248.5 GW of new renewable electricity generation capacity was estimated to be required by 2050 to produce the additional 867 TWh required for an electrolyser output of 2088 PJ of green hydrogen for export, which will comprise 55.9% of Australia's total electricity demand at that time. The characteristics of comparative export-oriented resources and their interactions with the domestic economy and energy system are then examined through the lens of the resource curse hypothesis, and the LNG and aluminium industries. These existing resource export frameworks are reviewed for applicability of specific factors to export-oriented green hydrogen production, with applicable factors then compiled into a novel conceptual framework for exporter domestic implications from large-scale exports of green hydrogen. The green hydrogen export superpower (2050) scenario is then quantitatively assessed using the established indicators for energy exporter vulnerability and domestic energy security, comparing it to Australia's 2019 energy exports profile. This assessment finds that in almost all factors, exporter vulnerability is reduced, and domestic energy security is enhanced by the transition from fossil fuel exports to green hydrogen, with the exception of an increase in exposure of the domestic energy system to international market forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This commentary assesses legal constraints on coal-mining in Australia in the context of developments in the climate regime. There is a growing global consensus that unabated coal-power must be phased down, yet executive branches of government at the national and subnational levels in Australia continue to approve new coal mines. This commentary looks to litigation that has challenged the approval of new coal mines on climate change grounds. I analyse how the Paris Agreement is being used in these claims. The Agreement provides background and context to the climate impacts of coal use in several cases. However, in a few cases, decisions to refuse coal mines are underpinned by substantive engagement with the Agreement's global warming limitation goals. These refusals are significant in an Australian legal context that is otherwise weighted in favour of coal mining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]