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Background: Data suggest that the prediction of adult cardiovascular disease using a model comprised entirely of adult nonlaboratory-based risk factors is equivalent to an approach that additionally incorporates adult lipid measures. We assessed and compared the utility of a risk model based solely on nonlaboratory risk factors in adolescence versus a lipid model based on nonlaboratory risk factors plus lipids for predicting high-risk carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in adulthood.Methods: The study comprised 2893 participants 12 to 18 years of age from 4 longitudinal cohort studies from the United States (Bogalusa Heart Study and the Insulin Study), Australia (Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study), and Finland (The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study) and followed into adulthood when cIMT was measured (mean follow-up, 23.4 years). Overweight status was defined according to the Cole classification. Hypertension was defined according to the Fourth Report on High Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents from the National High Blood Pressure Education Program. High-risk plasma lipid levels were defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Cholesterol Levels in Children. High cIMT was defined as a study-specific value ≥90th percentile. Age and sex were included in each model.Results: In univariate models, all risk factors except for borderline high and high triglycerides in adolescence were associated with high cIMT in adulthood. In multivariable models (relative risk [95% confidence interval]), male sex (2.7 [2.0-2.6]), prehypertension (1.4 [1.0-1.9]), hypertension (1.9 [1.3-2.9]), overweight (2.0 [1.4-2.9]), obesity (3.7 [2.0-7.0]), borderline high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.6 [1.2-2.2]), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.6 [1.1-2.1]), and borderline low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.4 [1.0-1.8]) remained significant predictors of high cIMT (P<0.05). The addition of lipids into the nonlaboratory risk model slightly but significantly improved discrimination in predicting high cIMT compared with nonlaboratory-based risk factors only (C statistics for laboratory-based model 0.717 [95% confidence interval, 0.685-0.748] and for nonlaboratory 0.698 [95% confidence interval, 0.667-0.731]; P=0.02).Conclusions: Nonlaboratory-based risk factors and lipids measured in adolescence independently predicted preclinical atherosclerosis in young adulthood. The addition of lipid measurements to traditional clinic-based risk factor assessment provided a statistically significant but clinically modest improvement on adolescent prediction of high cIMT in adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atherosclerosis develops silently for decades before clinical cardiovascular disease (cCVD) occurs. Longitudinally, childhood risk factors predict adult pre-clinical atherosclerosis (carotid artery plaques, coronary artery calcification). There is currently no evidence directly linking childhood risk factors to cCVD. Methods: Using data from the i3C Consortium, consisting of five cohorts from the United States, one from Australia and one from Finland, we linked youth risk factors to adult cCVD. cCVD events were ascertained by re-contacting the participants in the US and Australia, then obtaining and medically adjudicating hospital records; and using the Finnish national health registry. Of 16,964 of these adult participants (mean age 49 years, range 24-67 years) who had been examined during ages 3-19 years, 201 people with any cCVD event (coronary artery, cerebrovascular, and peripheral artery disease, 70%, 25%, and 5% of events, respectively) have so far been ascertained. Analysis of deaths is in process. The associations between each youth risk variable and adult cCVD were examined in Cox proportional hazard models. Each model was additionally adjusted for childhood age, age at followup, sex and cohort/race. Continuous youth variables were z-scored for each participant's last repeated measure during childhood. Results: Youth body mass index (BMI), serum total cholesterol (TC) and triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure were (all P <0.0001) positively associated with adult cCVD events. Regular smoking in youth was associated with a nearly 50% increased risk of adult cCVD (P=0.08). BMI and TC remained significant in the simultaneous risk factor model. The adjudication pipeline suggests that over 500 hospitalized cCVD events will be found when adjudication is complete. Regression using the full set of imputed events yielded similar findings. Conclusion: These international data find that exposure to CVD risk factors in youth predicts adult cCVD with implications for primordial CVD prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: Recent evidence suggests that childhood levels of serum lipids, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and smoking contribute to adult risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Evidence is lacking on whether this is independent of adult risk levels., Objective: To quantify direct and indirect effects of childhood risk factors on adult CVD via adulthood risk factors using mediation analysis, and to quantify their relative importance during different life-course stages using a life-course approach., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study followed participants from the US, Finland, and Australia from childhood (1970s-1990s) until 2019, with data on CVD risk factors in childhood and adulthood. Longitudinal childhood and adulthood risk factors were summarized to describe BMI, lipids, and blood pressure cumulatively. Childhood and adulthood smoking were assessed with questionnaires. Data analysis was performed May 2022 to August 2023., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events in adulthood. Mediation analysis was used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the childhood risk factors with CVD events, reported as incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs., Results: A total of 10 634 participants (4506 male participants [42.4%]; mean [SD] age at childhood visit, 13.3 [3.0] years; mean [SD] age at adulthood visit, 32.3 [6.0] years) were included in the cohort. The mean (SD) age at CVD event or censoring was 49.2 (7.0) years. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 23.6 (18.7-30.2) years. Childhood risk factors, (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], total cholesterol [TC], triglycerides, systolic blood pressure [SBP], smoking, BMI, and a combined score of these) were associated with CVD. BMI (direct effect for incidence RR per 1 SD unit, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05-1.34) and LDL-C (direct effect incidence RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.34) in particular were found to play an important role via direct pathways, whereas the indirect effects were larger for TC, triglycerides, SBP, and the combined score. Childhood smoking only affected CVD via adulthood smoking. Life-course models confirmed that for the risk of CVD, childhood BMI plays nearly as important role as adulthood BMI, whereas for the other risk factors and the combined score, adulthood was the more important period., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of 10 634 participants, childhood risk factors were found to be associated both directly and indirectly to adult CVD, with the largest direct effect seen for BMI and LDL-C. These findings suggest that intervention for childhood risk factors, in particular BMI, is warranted to reduce incidence of adult CVD as it cannot be fully mitigated by risk factor management in adulthood.

Background Despite declining US adolescent smoking prevalence from 40% among 12th graders in 1995 to around 10% in 2018, adolescent smoking is still a significant problem. Using the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, which includes 7 international cohorts recruited in childhood and followed into adulthood, the present study was designed to confirm the important relation between adolescent smoking and daily adult smoking and present new data on adult smoking into the forties and comparison of smoking in the United States, Finland, and Australia. Methods and Results Childhood smoking experience during ages 6 to 19 in the 1970s and 1980s was classifiable in 6687 i3C participants who also provided smoking status in their twenties and forties through 2011-2018. Prevalence of daily smoking in their twenties was directly related to degree of smoking during adolescence and inversely related to the age at which that smoking experience occurred ( P trend, <0.001). Similar patterns were observed for prediction of smoking during age forties. Among the 2465 smokers in their twenties, cessation by their forties was generally inverse to degree of smoking in ages 6 to 19 ( P trend, <0.001). Prevalence of smoking during adolescence and adulthood was similar among US, Finnish, and Australian participants. Conclusions These long-term follow-up data show that smoking intensity increased throughout adolescence. Prevalence of adult smoking and cessation by the forties were both correlated with levels of childhood smoking intensity. These data lend support to preventive strategies designed to reduce, delay, or eliminate any youth access to cigarettes.