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Summary: This article reviews the risk equations recommended for use in international cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines and assesses their suitability for use in Australia against a set of a priori defined selection criteria.The review and assessment were commissioned by the National Heart Foundation of Australia on behalf of the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance to inform recommendations on CVD risk estimation as part of the 2023 update of the Australian CVD risk assessment and management guidelines.Selected international risk equations were assessed against eight selection criteria: development using contemporary data; inclusion of established cardiovascular risk factors; inclusion of ethnicity and deprivation measures; prediction of a broad selection of fatal and non‐fatal CVD outcomes; population representativeness; model performance; external validation in an Australian dataset; and the ability to be recalibrated or modified.Of the ten risk prediction equations reviewed, the New Zealand PREDICT equation met seven of the eight selection criteria, and met additional usability criteria aimed at assessing the ability to apply the risk equation in practice in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the imperfect nature of risk assessment and the long subclinical disease period, RCTs assessing the clinical impact of CVD risk assessment would need to be large-scale and long term to detect changes in CVD outcomes. Keywords: Risk management; Absolute risk; Surveillance EN Risk management Absolute risk Surveillance 103 105 3 02/21/23 20230215 NES 230215 Data on the expected effectiveness of a formal cardiovascular risk screening program are needed Population-based screening programs for early disease detection are important for preventing morbidity, disability, and premature death. A formal CVD risk screening program is likely to reduce the burden of CVD across the population, but we currently lack data to support this. Rather than diagnosing CVD, absolute CVD risk assessment quantifies the likelihood that an individual will experience a primary CVD event in given period of time. [Extracted from the article]

Background and Aim: People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer., Results: Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%., Conclusions: Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge., (© 2024 The Authors. Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology published by Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), preventable through appropriate management of absolute CVD risk, disproportionately affects socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals. The aim of this study was to estimate absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in absolute CVD risk and treatment in the Australian population using cross-sectional representative data on 4751 people aged 45-74 from the 2011-12 Australian Health Survey. Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence differences (PD) and ratios (PR) for prior CVD, high 5-year absolute risk of a primary CVD event and guideline-recommended medication use, in relation to socioeconomic position (SEP, measured by education). After adjusting for age and sex, the prevalence of high absolute risk of a primary CVD event among those of low, intermediate and high SEP was 12.6%, 10.9% and 7.7% (PD, low vs. high = 5.0 [95% CI: 2.3, 7.7], PR = 1.6 [1.2, 2.2]) and for prior CVD was 10.7%, 9.1% and 6.7% (PD = 4.0 [1.4, 6.6], PR = 1.6 [1.1, 2.2]). The proportions using preventive medication use among those with high primary risk were 21.3%, 19.5% and 29.4% for low, intermediate and high SEP and for prior CVD, were 37.8%, 35.7% and 17.7% (PD = 20.1 [9.7, 30.5], PR = 2.1 [1.3, 3.5]). Proportions at high primary risk and not using medications among those of low, intermediate and high SEP were 10.6%, 8.8% and 4.7% and with prior CVD and not using medications were 8.5%, 6.3% and 4.1%. Findings indicate substantial potential to prevent CVD and reduce inequalities through appropriate management of high absolute risk in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population screening and monitoring of cardiovascular risk is suboptimal in Australian primary care. The role of community pharmacy has increased considerably, but without any policy framework for development. The aim of this study was to explore the nature of community pharmacy-based screening models in Australia, capacity to increase delivery of pharmacy screening, and barriers and enablers to increasing capacity.Methods: An online survey weblink was emailed to pharmacy managers at every quality-accredited pharmacy in Australia by the Quality Pharmacy Care Program. The 122-item survey explored the nature of screening services, pharmacy capacity to deliver services, and barriers and enablers to service delivery in considerable detail. Adaptive questioning was used extensively to reduce the participant burden. Pharmacy location details were requested to facilitate geo-coding and removal of duplicate entries. A descriptive analysis of responses was undertaken.Results: There were 294 valid responses from 4890 emails, a 6% response rate. Most pharmacies (79%) had private counselling areas. Blood pressure assessment was nearly universal (96%), but other common risk factor assessments were offered by a minority. Most did not charge for assessments, and 59% indicated capacity to provide multiple risk factor assessments. Fewer than one in five (19%) reported any formal arrangements with general practice for care coordination. Financial viability was perceived as a key barrier to service expansion, amid concerns of patient willingness to pay. Support from government and non-governmental organisations for their role was seen as necessary.Conclusion: There appears to be a critical mass of pharmacies engaging in evidence-based and professional services. Considerable additional support appears required to optimise performance across the profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]