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In this paper we are testing for contagion caused by the Thai baht collapse of July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change within the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt Bai and Perron's (1998) structural break approach in order to detect the endogenous break points of the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach enables us to solve the misspecification problem of the crisis window. Our results illustrate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many economists believe that China avoided the so-called Asian flu due to its strong balance of payments position and substantial foreign reserves. This study introduces an improved method for testing financial-crisis contagion and shows that crisis-contagion effects were significant among Thailand and the Chinese economic area (i.e. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The main contribution of this study is its use of a two-step procedure to identify the crisis dates for testing for contagion and data pertaining to a growing triangular economic area during the Asian financial crisis. This result suggests that if investors ignore the economic and financial information within regional markets, they will face an increase in uncertainty vis-à-vis investment returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the stock market linkages within the Asia-Pacific region and between Asian markets and the U.S. market over the period of January 2000 to June 2010, employing the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. Our results show that there exist very high correlations among the stock markets during the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, consistent with the finding in literature, there are no diversification benefits during the financial crisis. However, our results show that there are still substantial opportunities for global investors to improve the risk-return performance between China and other markets during the sample period. In addition, we find evidence that the U.S. market significantly affects the stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Using T-GARCH model, there is a strong evidence of an asymmetric effect on conditional variance except stock markets in China and Malaysia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the dynamics of correlation between 11 Asian stock markets and the US stock market. By utilizing the method of 'principal components', we identify a single latent factor that can explain a major portion of variation in the weekly returns of these 11 markets from 1993 to early 2009. We employ the asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model to estimate the correlation between this Asian factor and the US stock market. We find that there is a mean shift in the estimated DCC in the period from late of 2007. We refer this finding as contagion from the US to the Asian markets. However, we find no such evidence of having contagion between the US and individual markets in Asia during the Asian financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates whether Bitcoin (BTC) can provide a hedge against the fiat currencies in Asia over various investment horizons. We focus on Asia because it is one of the fastest‐growing regions worldwide, where cryptocurrencies are actively traded. A wavelet transform technique is combined with a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (SV) model to examine the dynamic correlation properties and risk reduction effectiveness of BTC in both the time and frequency domains. We use gold and oil as benchmarks and compared their results with those of BTC. The estimated correlations indicate that the Asian currencies tend to be negatively correlated with BTC; therefore, the latter could provide a hedge against the former over the medium (8–32 days) and long (32–64 days) terms. By contrast, Asian currencies tend to be positively correlated with oil and gold for the same horizons. We also analyze the downside risk reduction effectiveness of BTC for the portfolio of Asian currencies and find that BTC provides better risk reduction than oil and gold, particularly over the medium and long terms. This study makes significant contributions to the literature by demonstrating that the correlation properties and risk reduction effectiveness of BTC differ depending on the investment horizons. We believe our findings using the wavelet‐based SV model can help heterogeneous investors detect portfolio risks and thus, identify optimal hedging strategies over various investment horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic correlation structure between A-share and B-share stock returns based on three different measures of correlation coefficients. Testing the models by employing daily stock-return data for the period from 1996 through 2003, we reach the following empirical conclusions. First, the correlation coefficients between A-share and B-share stock returns are time varying. Second, the dynamic path of the correlation coefficients indicates that the correlation coefficients are significantly correlated with the trend factor. Third, there is a substantial spillover effect from the Asian crisis to Chinese stock-return dynamic correlations. Fourth, the evidence suggests that the time-varying correlations are significantly associated with excessive trading activity as measured by excessive trading volumes and high-low price differentials. Fifth, the correlation between A-share and B-share markets has increased since the relaxation of the restriction on B-share market investments by domestic investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the relationship between real interest rate parity and the interest parity puzzle across several economies in the Asia‐Pacific region. Unlike previous studies, we establish a comprehensive theoretical framework for parity and utilize macroeconomic and financial market data from 15 economies in the region to examine it. Our findings indicate that most countries exhibit mild deviations from parity, with real interest rate differentials strongly correlated with changes in the real exchange rate and interest‐exchange rate interaction terms, particularly in middle‐income economies. While interest parity puzzle is also observed in high‐income economies, it is less prevalent in most middle‐income economies. Our analysis reveals that income levels are key drivers of deviations from parity in this model, with interaction terms also playing a crucial role in most cases. The implication here is that for carry trades, investors place significant importance on risk factors, especially in economies with relatively low risk. This insight helps to clarify a puzzle in this area. Therefore, it is imperative that investors should take into account the impact of interest‐exchange rate interaction terms when making carry trade decisions. Lastly, we underscore the significance of ex ante price forecast approaches in achieving parity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the co-movement patterns of Asia technology stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis examines Bitcoin and Ethereum, China's Tech index (XA90), and India's Tech index (NSEIT) from 2017 to 2021, representing both before and during COVID-19. To visually explore the co-movement between these variables, a bi-wavelet method is employed. This approach allows for an examination of how these variables move together over time coherently. There were noticeable changes in the co-movement patterns between technology stock indices and cryptocurrencies during COVID-19 compared to before the pandemic. The duration of co-movements decreased significantly after the emergence of COVID-19. The previous financial crisis had a longer time horizon for joint movement, lasting 256 days. However, during the pre-COVID-19 period, XA90 exhibited a strong co-movement with Bitcoin over this extended period but weakened afterward when COVID-19 emerged. Conversely, NSEIT showed a significant co-movement with both Ethereum and Bitcoin in the initial stages of the pandemic. Before that period, NSEIT had muted price movements along with BTC. These changes in price co-movements suggest shifts in herding behavior due to the pandemic. Notably, cryptocurrency markets have demonstrated faster recovery compared to technology stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing involvement of the Asian market in the global context plays a fundamental role in spreading shocks across the financial system. This paper examines the extent of vulnerability across Asian equity markets and the United States (US) equity market by distinguishing between spillovers and contagion. Spillovers are detected using a generalised historical decomposition method, while contagion is identified using a portfolio mimicking factor framework using moment conditions. The transmission of spillovers is assessed to capture the direction, strength and signs of the spillovers. The findings show evidence of changing vulnerability in Asia and the US. This is as a result of increased spillovers during crisis events and the presence of contagion. Stronger connections during crisis periods are evident as well as a general deepening of the global network. These connections may result in reduced opportunities for emerging markets. The findings suggest that caution is needed when developing regulations or methods to create a stable financial system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The author expresses his perspectives on economic measures in housing price cycles in East Asia based on dynamic correlation and time-varying dynamic conditional correlation. The author mentions the factors that influence housing prices to move in tandem in East Asia such as animal spirits, uncertainties and expectations. The author also cites the constraints in the demand and supply for housing.

Using the panel data vector autoregression (PVAR) model, this study examines the correlation between the stock market, gold price and USD exchange rate in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 55 Asian and 32 European countries from 11 March 2021 to 29 October 2021. The results of Granger causality test show that in Asian countries, there is a bidirectional causality between stock market and gold price. In addition, there is a unidirectional relationship between the stock market and the USD exchange rate, while the gold price and the USD exchange rate are completely independent of each other. Meanwhile, in European countries, stock market, gold price and USD exchange rate have a causal relationship at 1% significant level. The results of the impulse-response function analysis show that, in Asia, the stock market has a negative impact on the gold price and a positive effect on the USD exchange rate. In Europe, the stock market has a negative impact on the other two markets in the short term. The variance decomposition results suggest that, in Europe, the stock market return explains 2.5% for the gold price shock and 6.2% for the USD exchange rate shock from the tenth period. Meanwhile, these figures in the Asian countries are 1.6% and 3.2%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the influence of the structural breaks on the optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness index (HEI) of risk‐minimizing portfolios composed of S&P500 and selected emerging markets' indices from East Europe, Asia and South America. We employ a bivariate DCC‐EGARCH models without and with structural breaks and we find better estimation features when structural breaks are included in the model. However, we do not find evidence that insertion of structural breaks increases portfolio hedging performances. The differences that exist between optimal weights, hedge ratios and HEI values are so small that tangible economic benefit for international investors do not exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined impacts of the US and Greek crises on stock markets for a period of January 2005 and June 2012. The GARCH model is used to analyze comovement and volatility spillover effect between stock markets in Asia, Europe, and the North America. Some notable findings are as follow. First, stock markets in these regions had not been fully integrated. Second, the adjustment speed of stock markets to innovations due to these crises increased in most markets. Third, strong volatility spillover and financial contagion had been observed from the US market to other markets during the US crisis. Fourth, the US market had been dominant in European markets with significant impacts, but not in Asian markets. Fifth, the (developed) US market had more significant impacts on other markets than did the developing Greek market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate returns, volatilities, and correlations across mature, dominant regional, and frontier equity markets. Standard & Poor's 500 is chosen as a mature equity market; India is chosen as a dominant regional market; and Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are chosen as frontier markets. Our empirical tests show that the frontier markets remain fundamentally decoupled from the mature markets during normal market periods. During turbulent times, the contagion effects from the mature to the frontier markets become more pronounced. The results suggest that the dominant regional market plays a key role in disseminating shocks across the frontier markets during normal periods; during the turbulent recent financial crisis period, a similar contagion is not observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to verify whether the trading strategy can beat the “buy-and-hold” strategy for the securitized real estate indices of six Asian economies: Hong Kong, China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – This paper constructs a trading strategy from the Shiryaev-Zhou index and tests the strategy on the securitized real estate indices of six emerging Asian economies: Hong Kong, China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia. The authors compare the resulting profits from using the trading strategy with the resulting profits from using the “buy-and-hold” strategy. The authors consider three cases: no transaction costs, 0.1 percent transaction costs, and 0.2 percent transaction costs. Findings – The results show that the trading strategy the authors constructed generally outperforms the “buy-and-hold” strategy even in the presence of transaction costs. In particular, the authors have a new finding as follows: Thailand and Malaysia's securitized real estate indices fell drastically during the period of observation. However, applying the trading strategy to these two securitized real estate indices can still earn a profit. Practical implications – The trading strategy is particularly useful in protecting investors from huge loss in adverse market conditions. The results can be applied to the field of finance/investment that investors can construct a trading strategy similar to the authors to earn more profits. Originality/value – This study will consider cases where both buying and selling costs exist, so the scenario is more like stock transactions in real-life equity markets. Furthermore, in this paper, for each securitized real estate index, the authors plot a graph to show the holding and non-holding periods under the trading strategy. This would help the authors explain the resulting profit under the trading strategy. This kind of graphical analysis was neglected by Hui and Yam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to answer two questions using input-output decomposition analysis: 1) Have emerging Asian economies decoupled? 2) What are the sources of structural changes in gross outputs and value-added of emerging Asian economies related to the first question? The main findings of the study are as follows: First, since 1990, there has been a trend of increasing dependence on exports to extra-regions such as G3 and the ROW, indicating no sign of "decoupling", but rather an increasing integration of emerging Asian countries into global trade. Second, there is a contrasting feature in the sources of structural changes between non-China emerging Asia and China. Dependence of non-China emerging Asia on intra-regional trade has increased in line with strengthening economic integration in East Asia, whereas China has disintegrated from the region. Therefore, it can be said that China has contributed to no sign of decoupling of emerging Asia as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides international evidence on the effects of volatility spillover in Asian real estate investment trust (REIT) markets. Six Asian markets (Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea) are examined through the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model with exogenous variables in the variance equation. Results show a negative spillover effect from the stock to REIT market, but a positive spillover from the bond to REIT market. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the negative volatility spillover from the stock to REIT market is significantly enhanced. This suggests that a prosperous stock market would decrease conditional volatility in the REIT market and the effect is more pronounced during the financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether international capital mobility in Asia has increased after the 1997 Asian financial crisis by estimating the Feldstein-Horioka (FH) coefficients using panel cointegration and dynamic OLS regressions. In the benchmark estimation, we find that the FH coefficients of ten Asian economies decrease significantly from 0.65 during the pre-crisis period to 0.32 during the post-crisis period. Furthermore, the coefficient for the post-crisis period is less statistically significant than that for the pre-crisis period. The extended model estimations with additional control variables controlling for the business cycle, different foreign exchange rate systems, and capital control also show the results which are consistent with the benchmark estimation results. Rolling regressions show a consistently declining trend of the FH coefficients in Asia during our sample period. These results provide consistent evidence, according to the FH proposition, of increasing international capital mobility in Asia during the post-1997 Asian financial crisis period. ( JEL F36, F37, F21) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effect of trading activity in the Asian emerging markets on the market integration across Asian emerging and major developed markets over the sample period of 1997 to 2009. The empirical evidence confirms that higher trading activity in Asian emerging markets can induce these markets and developed markets to become more integrated. Furthermore, we identify the mediation effect of market volatility on Asian emerging markets. This effect demonstrates that trading activity in Asian emerging markets not only directly enhances market integration, but also intensifies market volatility, indirectly increasing market integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between index returns, return volatility, and trading volume for eight Asian markets and the US. We find cross-border spillovers in returns to be non-existent, spillovers in absolute returns between Asia and the US to be strong in both directions, and spillovers in volatility to run from Asia to the US. Trading volume, especially on the Asian markets, depends on shocks in domestic and foreign returns as well as on volatility, especially those shocks originating in the US. However, only weak evidence is found for trading volume influencing other variables. In the light of the theoretical models, these results suggest sequential information arrivals, with investors being overconfident and applying positive feedback strategy. Furthermore, new information causes price volatility to rise due to differences in its interpretation among traders, but the subsequent market reaction takes the form of adjustment in price level, not volatility. Lastly, the intensity of cross-border spillovers seems to have increased following the 1997 crisis, which we interpret as evidence of increased noisiness in prices and diversity in opinions about news originating abroad. Our findings might also help to understand the nature of financial crises, to predict their further developments and consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994 to 2003. The econometrics methodology used is that of multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family volatility models, particularly the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this article provide evidence favourable for the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America, but not in the opposite direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the extreme dependence between the markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taiwan and Singapore. The tail dependence coefficient (TDC), which measures how likely financial returns move together in extreme market conditions, is modeled dynamically using the Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model with the time-varying correlation matrix of Tse and Tsui (Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(3):351–363, 2002). The time paths of the TDC indicate that Hong Kong stocks had the highest extreme dependence during the Asian financial crisis and their TDCs have followed an increasing trend since 2006. The results in this paper also show that the TDC pattern of Singapore with the other markets is very similar to the TDC pattern of Hong Kong with the other markets. An increasing trend in the extreme dependence between Shanghai A Share Index and Shanghai B Share Index and between the Hang Seng Index and the Hong Kong China Enterprise Index is observed from 2002 to 2007. A substantial rise in the TDC between Shenzhen A Share Index and Shenzhen B Share Index was recorded after the China market reforms in 2005. Our TDC modeling with Asian market data provides evidence that Asian markets are becoming integrated and their extreme co-movements during financial turmoil are becoming stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models dynamic correlations between the Asian stock market returns and studies their behaviour over the period before, during and after the Asian financial crisis, which occurred in the 1990s. To establish the presence of contagion effect, this paper investigates whether or not there is a break-down in the correlation data generating process, particularly, during crises. The East Asian block-Thai, Malaysian, Indonesian and Korean-countries stock markets were considered in this study. Using multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models with dynamic correlations, this study finds strong evidence of contagion effects between (Thailand and Malaysia), (Thailand and Korea), (Malaysia and Korea) and (Korea and Indonesia). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-range dependency of the volatility of exchange-rate time series plays a crucial role in the evaluation of exchange-rate risks, in particular for the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar is currently holding the fifth rank in the global top 10 most frequently traded currencies. The popularity of the Aussie dollar among currency traders belongs to the so-called three G's—Geology, Geography and Government policy. The Australian economy is largely driven by commodities. The strength of the Australian dollar is counter-cyclical relative to other currencies and ties proximately to the geographical, commercial linkage with Asia and the commodity cycle. As such, we consider that the Australian dollar presents strong characteristics of the commodity currency. In this study, we provide an examination of the Australian dollar–US dollar rates. For the period from 18:05, 7th August 2019 to 9:25, 16th September 2019 with a total of 8481 observations, a wavelet-based approach that allows for modelling long-memory characteristics of this currency pair at different trading horizons is used in our analysis. Findings from our analysis indicate that long-range dependence in volatility is observed and it is persistent across horizons. However, this long-range dependence in volatility is most prominent at the horizon longer than daily. Policy implications have emerged based on the findings of this paper in relation to the important determinant of volatility dynamics, which can be incorporated in optimal trading strategies and policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]