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"This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of households, their members, and population structure, using data that are usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and three-generation households are both important. The illustrative application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the elderly.", (excerpt)

"This article presents a graphical and a life table analysis that summarizes some 14,000 values of data by single year of age and time on marriage and fertility in China up to 1989. In the 1970s, age at first marriage shifted upward by about four years, and fertility dramatically declined. The age at marriage and childbearing decreased in [the] 1980s, which are associated with some socio-economic factors. Fertility rates slightly increased in the second half of the 1980s, from their low level in 1984. The analysis also reveals that Chinese marriage and childbearing remain virtually universal and occurred at rather young ages." Data are from the 1988 2-in-1,000 fertility and contraceptive survey. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA), (excerpt)

"In this paper, which is based on a projection model of rural-urban population dynamics established by the authors, we make use of the investigative data of the one percent national population sample of 1987 and analog calculations on almost 200 demographic parameters to clarify the problematic relations between some key issues in China's future demographic processes. We advance a number of suggestions for the reference of policy-makers and planners.", (excerpt)