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Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide an annual cycle of the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in the central Arctic. A self-organizing map (SOM) analysis conducted using radiosonde observations shows a range in the Arctic ABL vertical structure from very shallow and stable, with a strong surface-based virtual potential temperature (θv) inversion, to deep and near neutral, capped by a weak elevated θv inversion. The patterns identified by the SOM allowed for the derivation of criteria to categorize stability within and just above the ABL, which revealed that the Arctic ABL during MOSAiC was stable and near neutral with similar frequencies, and there was always a θv inversion within the lowest 1 km, which usually had strong to moderate stability. In conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer, the radiosonde observations and SOM analysis provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric vertical structure and stability, as well as a variety of atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic features. A low-level jet was observed in 76 % of the radiosondes, with stronger winds and low-level jet (LLJ) core located more closely to the ABL corresponding with weaker stability. Wind shear within the ABL was found to decrease, and friction velocity was found to increase, with decreasing ABL stability. Clouds were observed within the 30 min preceding the radiosonde launch 64 % of the time. These were typically low clouds, corresponding to weaker stability, where high clouds or no clouds largely coincided with a stable ABL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low-wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low-radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments; a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low-wind, high-radiation environments; weak stability occurs in high-wind, moderate-radiation environments; and a near-neutral ABL forms in high-wind, high-radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence, and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments, a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low wind, high radiation environments, weak stability occurs in high wind, moderate radiation environments, and a near-neutral ABL forms in high wind, high radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide an annual cycle of the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in the central Arctic. A self-organizing map (SOM) analysis conducted using radiosonde observations shows a range in the Arctic ABL vertical structure from very shallow and stable, with a strong surface-based virtual potential temperature (θv) inversion, to deep and near-neutral, with a weak elevated θv inversion. Profile observations from the DataHawk2 uncrewed aircraft system between 23 March and 26 July 2020 largely sampled the same profile structures, which can be further analyzed to provide unique insight into the turbulent characteristics of the ABL. The patterns identified by the SOM allowed for the derivation of criteria to categorize stability within and just above the ABL, which reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies. In conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer, the radiosonde observations provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and a variety of atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic features. The average ABL height was found to be 150 m, and ABL height increases with decreasing stability. A low-level jet was observed in 76 % of the radiosondes, with an average height of 401 m and an average speed of 11.5 m s−1. At least one temperature inversion below 5 km was observed in 99.7 % of the radiosondes, with an average base height of 260 m and an average intensity of 4.8 °C. The only cases without a temperature inversion were those with weak stability aloft. Clouds were observed within the 30 minutes preceding radiosonde launch 64 % of the time. These were typically low clouds, and high clouds largely coincide with a stable ABL. The amount of atmospheric moisture present increases with decreasing stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of clouds in the Arctic regulates the surface energy budget (SEB) over the sea‐ice surface and the ice‐free ocean. Following several previous field campaigns, the cloud‐radiation relationship, including cloud vertical structure and phase, has been elucidated; however, modeling of this relationship has matured slowly. In recognition of the recent decline in the Arctic sea‐ice extent, representation of the cloud system in numerical models should consider the effects of areas covered by sea ice and ice‐free areas. Using an in situ stationary meteorological observation data set obtained over the ice‐free Arctic Ocean by the Japanese Research Vessel Mirai (September 2014), coordinated evaluation of six regional climate models (RCMs) with nine model runs was performed by focusing on clouds and the SEB. The most remarkable findings were as follows: (1) reduced occurrence of unstable stratification with low‐level cloud water in all models in comparison to the observations, (2) significant differences in cloud water representations between single‐ and double‐moment cloud schemes, (3) extensive differences in partitioning of hydrometeors including solid/liquid precipitation, and (4) pronounced lower‐tropospheric air temperature biases. These issues are considered as the main sources of SEB uncertainty over ice‐free areas of the Arctic Ocean. The results from a coupled RCM imply that the SEB is constrained by both the atmosphere and the ocean (and sea ice) with considerable feedback. Coordinated improvement of both stand‐alone atmospheric and coupled RCMs would promote a more comprehensive and improved understanding of the Arctic air‐ice‐sea coupled system. Key Points: Discrepancies remain in surface energy budget (SEB) and cloud properties despite constrained boundary conditionsModels underestimate occurrence of unstable stratification with low‐level water cloudsBiases in hydrometeor partitioning essentially contribute to limited skill in SEB simulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The near-surface climate, including the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land state and fluxes, in the initial version of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) are presented. The sensitivity of the RASM near-surface climate to changes in atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice parameters and physics is evaluated in four simulations. The near-surface atmospheric circulation is well simulated in all four RASM simulations but biases in surface temperature are caused by biases in downward surface radiative fluxes. Errors in radiative fluxes are due to biases in simulated clouds with different versions of RASM simulating either too much or too little cloud radiative impact over open ocean regions and all versions simulating too little cloud radiative impact over land areas. Cold surface temperature biases in the central Arctic in winter are likely due to too few or too radiatively thin clouds. The precipitation simulated by RASM is sensitive to changes in evaporation that were linked to sea surface temperature biases. Future work will explore changes in model microphysics aimed at minimizing the cloud and radiation biases identified in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing recognition that reductions in Arctic sea ice extent will influence patterns of atmospheric circulation both within and beyond the Arctic. We explore the impact of 2007 ice conditions (the second lowest Arctic sea ice extent in the satellite era) on atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures and fluxes through a series of model experiments with the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3 ( CAM3). Two 30-year simulations were performed; one using climatological sea ice extent for the end of the 20th century and other using observed sea ice extent from 2007. Circulation differences over the Northern Hemisphere were most prominent during autumn and winter with lower sea level pressure ( SLP) and tropospheric pressure simulated over much of the Arctic for the 2007 sea ice experiment. The atmospheric response to 2007 ice conditions was much weaker during summer, with negative SLP anomalies simulated from Alaska across the Arctic to Greenland. Higher temperatures and larger surface fluxes to the atmosphere in areas of anomalous open water were also simulated. CAM3 experiment results were compared to observed SLP anomalies from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research ( NCEP/ NCAR) Reanalysis data. The observed SLP anomalies during spring are nearly opposite to those simulated. In summer, large differences were shown between the observed and simulated SLP also, suggesting that the sea ice conditions in the months preceding and during the summer of 2007 were not responsible for creating an atmospheric circulation pattern which favoured the large observed sea ice loss. The simulated and observed atmospheric circulation anomalies during autumn and winter were more similar than spring and summer, with the exception of a strong high pressure system in the Beaufort Sea which was not simulated, suggesting that the forced atmospheric response to reduced sea ice was in part responsible for the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies during autumn and winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated for month-long simulations over a large pan-Arctic model domain. The evaluation of seven different WRF (version 3.1) configurations for four months (January, April, July, and October 2007) indicated that WRF produces reasonable simulations of the Arctic atmosphere. Ranking of the model error statistics, calculated relative to the NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-2), for sea level pressure, 500- and 300-hPa geopotential height, 2-m air temperature, and precipitation identified the model configurations that consistently produced the best pan-Arctic simulations. For all WRF configurations considered, large errors in circulation are evident in the North Pacific. The errors in the North Pacific are manifested as an overly weak and westward-shifted Aleutian low and overly strong subtropical Pacific high simulated by WRF. These circulation errors are nearly barotropic, with a slight increase in magnitude with height, and they vary slightly in magnitude and position as the WRF physics options and domain size are changed. It is concluded that the circulation errors are likely due to errors in the treatment of the model-top boundary. The use of a higher model top (10 hPa rather than 50 hPa) or spectral nudging of wavenumbers 1-3 in the top half of the model domain results in significantly reduced circulation biases. Simulations with WRF version 3.2 also show reduced errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meridonal moisture transport into the Arctic derived from one simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), spanning the periods of 1960–99, 2010–30, and 2070–89, is analyzed. The twenty-first-century simulation incorporates the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario for CO2 and sulfate emissions. Modeled and observed [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] sea level pressure (SLP) fields are classified using a neural network technique called self-organizing maps to distill a set of characteristic atmospheric circulation patterns over the region north of 60°N. Model performance is validated for the twentieth century by comparing the frequencies of occurrence of particular circulation regimes in the model to those from the ERA-40. The model successfully captures dominant SLP patterns, but differs from observations in the frequency with which certain patterns occur. The model’s twentieth-century vertical mean moisture transport profile across 70°N compares well in terms of structure but exceeds the observations by about 12% overall. By relating moisture transport to a particular circulation regime, future changes in moisture transport across 70°N are assessed and attributed to changes in frequency with which the atmosphere resides in particular SLP patterns and/or to other factors, such as changes in the meridional moisture gradient. By the late twenty-first century, the transport is projected to increase by about 21% in this model realization, with the largest contribution (32%) to the total change occurring in summer. Only about one-quarter of the annual increase is due to changes in pattern occupancy, suggesting that the majority is related to mainly thermodynamic factors. A larger poleward moisture transport likely constitutes a positive feedback on the system through related increases in latent heat release and the emission of longwave radiation to the surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of late twentieth and twenty-first century predictions of Arctic circulation patterns in a ten-model ensemble of global climate system models, using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs), is presented. The model simulations were conducted in support of the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). The analysis demonstrates the utility of SOMs for climate analysis, both as a tool to evaluate the accuracy of climate model predictions, and to provide a useful alternative view of future climate change. It is found that not all models accurately simulate the frequency of occurrence of Arctic circulation patterns. Some of the models tend to overpredict strong high-pressure patterns while other models overpredict the intensity of cyclonic circulation regimes. In general, the ensemble of models predicts an increase in cyclonically dominated circulation patterns during both the winter and summer seasons, with the largest changes occurring during the first half of the twenty-first century. Analysis of temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the different circulation patterns reveals coherent patterns that are consistent with the different circulation regimes and highlight the dependence of local changes in these quantities to changes in the synoptic scale circulation patterns. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]