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How air masses transform during meridional transport into and out of the Arctic is not well represented by numerical models. The airborne field campaign HALO- (AC)3 applied the High Altitude and Long-range Research Aircraft (HALO) within the framework of the collaborative research project on Arctic amplification (AC)3 to address this question by providing a comprehensive observational basis. The campaign took place from 7 March to 12 April 2022 in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, a main gateway of atmospheric transport into and out of the Arctic. Here, we investigate to which degree the meteorological and sea ice conditions during the campaign align with the long-term climatology (1979–2022). For this purpose, we use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis v5 (ERA5), satellite data, and measurements at Ny-Ålesund, including atmospheric soundings. The observations and reanalysis data revealed two distinct periods with different weather conditions during HALO- (AC)3 : the campaign started with a warm period (11–20 March 2022) where strong southerly winds prevailed that caused poleward transport of warm and moist air masses, so-called moist and warm air intrusions (WAIs). Two WAI events were identified as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are narrow bands of strong moisture transport. These warm and moist air masses caused the highest measured 2 m temperatures (5.5 °C) and daily precipitation rates (42 mm d -1) at Ny-Ålesund for March since the beginning of the record (1993). Over the sea ice northwest of Svalbard, ERA5 indicated record-breaking rainfall. After the passage of a strong cyclone on 21 March 2022, a cold period followed. Northerly winds advected cold air into the Fram Strait, causing marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) until the end of the campaign. This second phase included one of the longest MCAO events found in the ERA5 record (19 d). On average, the entire campaign period was warmer than the climatological mean due to the strong influence of the ARs. In the Fram Strait, the sea ice concentration was well within the climatological variability over the entire campaign duration. However, during the warm period, a large polynya opened northeast of Svalbard, untypical for this season. Compared to previous airborne field campaigns focusing on the evolution of (mixed-phase) clouds, a larger variety of MCAO conditions was observed during HALO- (AC)3. In summary, air mass transport into and out of the Arctic was more pronounced than usual, providing exciting prospects for studying air mass transformation using HALO- (AC)3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic rapidly transforms due to global warming and increased human activities, triggering complex changes at unprecedented speeds that challenge conventional institutional responses. We analyse these changes through the lenses of social, political, and environmental boundaries and investigate their impacts on both inhabitants' livelihoods and the region's political framework. Employing an interdisciplinary approach, we highlight the complexities of understanding the interplay among global, regional, and local dynamics in an era where human and non-human aspects are entwined. Our analysis concentrates on three areas: definition of the Arctic; legal disputes concerning the waters around the Svalbard Archipelago; evolving natural hazards and societal risk perceptions in Longyearbyen. Through these examples, we underscore the intricate nature of social, political, and ecological changes and how they challenge current boundary-making processes. By combining knowledge from different systems and scales, our research reveals the interplay between policy-driven science, science-influenced policy, and performative behaviors in reshaping today's Arctic borders and boundaries. We particularly emphasize how climate change is challenging borders and advocate for a departure from static definitions, towards the formulation of environmentally conscious, socially just, and politically viable policies, acknowledging the new biophysical realities of the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean–ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability at sub-seasonal timescales is still poorly documented. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper-ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer (Qml) and in the 0–300 m layer (Q300), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Qml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper-ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and a focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today's Arctic is characterized by a lengthening of the sea ice melt season, but also by fast and at times unseasonal melt events. Such anomalous melt cases have been identified in Pacific and Atlantic Arctic sector sea ice studies. Through observational analyses, we document an unprecedented, simultaneous marginal ice zone melt event in the Bering Sea and Labrador Sea in March of 2023. Taken independently, variability in the cold season ice edge at synoptic time scales is common. However, such anomalous, short-term ice loss over either region during the climatological sea ice maxima is uncommon, and the tandem ice loss that occurred qualifies this as a rare event. The atmospheric setting that supported the unseasonal melt events was preceded by a sudden stratospheric warming event that, along with ongoing La Niña teleconnections, led to positive tropospheric height anomalies across much of the Arctic and the development of anomalous mid-troposphere ridges over the ice loss regions. These large-scale anticyclonic centers funneled extremely warm and moist airstreams onto the ice causing melt. Further analysis identified the presence of atmospheric rivers within these warm airstreams whose characteristics likely contributed to this bi-regional ice melt event. Whether such a confluence of anomalous wintertime events associated with troposphere-stratosphere coupling may occur more often in a warming Arctic remains a research area ripe for further exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is destabilizing the cryosphere, with consequences for glaciers, permafrost, sea ice and lake ice. Polar lakes have short ice‐free seasons, and small changes in ice cover duration have the potential to provoke alterations to ecosystem structure. However, these lakes are understudied, and the consequences for mixing regimes, thermal structures and biogeochemical processes remain unclear. We measured three annual cycles of dissolved oxygen, temperature and specific conductivity in a lake at ∼83°N to investigate limnological processes and their interannual variability. There were sharp interannual contrasts in lake dynamics, with state shifts in mixing, stratification and oxygen regimes due to air temperature variability and meteorological events. We also observed unusual thermal profiles that were associated with solute gradients. These striking differences underscore the sensitivity of high Arctic lakes to interannual variations in meteorological forcing, and their susceptibility to regime shifts in response to ongoing global change. Plain Language Summary: Lakes are biodiversity refuges, climate regulators and providers of ecosystem services. High Arctic lakes experience brief summer ice‐free periods and their annual dynamics remain largely unexplored despite their location in one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. In particular, patterns of thermal structure and oxygen dynamics have rarely been measured. We studied three complete annual cycles in a coastal lake less than 100 km south of the northernmost land on Earth. The observed limnological dynamics highlight the potential for rapid regime shifts in polar lakes and underline their sensitivity to interannual differences in environmental conditions. Key Points: Pronounced shifts in lake oxygen and temperature dynamics occur due to interannual air temperature variation and meteorological episodesDivergent annual trajectories in lake structure and functioning highlight the vulnerability of high Arctic lakes to climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold exposure remains a significant public health concern, particularly in the Arctic regions prone to extremely cold weather. While the physical health impacts of cold exposure are well documented, understanding the social vulnerability aspects is crucial for effective mitigation and policy development. This study investigates the multifaceted dimensions of social vulnerability in the face of cold temperatures across various communities in Alaska. Alaska, renowned for its extreme cold temperatures and harsh environmental conditions, poses unique challenges to its residents, particularly in the context of social vulnerability. Drawing on a combination of quantitative data analysis and qualitative insights, we examine the factors contributing to social vulnerability, including demographic, economic, geographic, and infrastructural elements, in terms of the Extremely Cold Social Vulnerability Index, for seven Public Health Regions in Alaska. The Universal Thermal Climate Index in two very cold categories (<−27 °C) was used to identify cold exposure. Factors such as income, housing quality, health status, and resilience of the population play crucial roles in determining an individual or community's sensitivity to, and ability to cope with, cold temperatures. Our analysis reveals that social vulnerability in Alaska is not uniform but varies significantly among regions. The research findings highlight the importance of considering factors of both sensitivity and adaptivity in understanding and addressing social vulnerability, thereby informing the development of targeted strategies and policies to enhance the resilience of Alaskan communities. As cold temperatures are projected to continue to challenge the region, addressing social vulnerability is essential for ensuring the well-being and safety of Alaska's diverse populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the documented consequences of anthropogenic global warming are the increased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves in the global ocean. The literature dedicated to Arctic marine heatwaves corroborates those results, but fails to identify the heat sources and sinks. Because of the numerous feedbacks impacting polar regions, understanding the processes triggering and dissipating those extreme events is particularly important to predict their occurrence in a fast changing ocean. A three‐dimensional regional ice‐ocean numerical model is used to calculate a surface mixed layer heat budget and to investigate mechanisms generating and dissipating marine heatwaves. The majority of the marine heatwaves are onset by surface heat fluxes and decayed by bottom and surface heat fluxes. The dominant processes are spatially and seasonally heterogeneous: lateral heat flux can become the primary process when advecting heat anomalies at the main Arctic gateways or by triggering temperature extremes in winter. Using a Reynolds decomposition, it can be determined that the shoaling of the surface mixed layer induced by ice melt can significantly lengthen and intensify Arctic marine heatwaves. In winter, the analysis of marine heatwaves poses unique challenges, with the long term freshening of the Arctic inducing a positive trend of 0.1°C per decade for the freezing point. Arctic marine heatwaves are expected to keep increasing in duration and intensity due to the increased trend of the primary process, the surface heat flux, and their dissipation by bottom heat flux provides a pathway for heat from the atmosphere to the Arctic subsurface water masses. Plain Language Summary: Extreme warm temperature anomalies in the ocean, called marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent, longer and more intense around the globe. In the Arctic Ocean, the complex links between sea ice, the atmosphere and the ocean could both amplify or hinder the impact of those events. Yet, understanding where the heat comes from and where it goes is critical to anticipate further changes in an already fast‐changing environment. To this aim, we calculate the sources and sinks of heat in a numerical model simulating the ocean and sea ice. Most marine heatwaves in the Arctic are generated by taking atmospheric heat up and disappear when this heat is transferred to the deeper ocean. In doing so, marine heatwaves provide a pathway for heat from the atmosphere to the subsurface ocean. Oceanic circulation can also propagate marine heatwaves along the continental shelf and toward the marginal ice zone. When ice melts, it shoals the upper layer of the ocean, concentrating the atmospheric heat and lengthening and intensifying marine heatwaves. The excess heat stored in the subsurface can be expected to resurface later in the season and will then delay the freezing of new sea ice. Key Points: A heat budget analysis is applied to a regional ice‐ocean model to determine the dominating drivers of marine heatwaves in the ArcticMarine heatwaves in the Arctic provide a pathway for heat from the atmosphere to the subsurface oceanSea ice melt shoals the surface mixed layer, and this prolongs and intensifies marine heatwaves [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gradual anthropogenic‐driven retreat of Arctic sea ice is overlaid by large natural (internal) year‐to‐year variability. In winter, sea‐ice loss and variability are currently most pronounced in the Barents Sea. As the loss of winter sea ice continues in a warming world, other regions will experience increased sea‐ice variability. In this study, we investigate to what extent this increased winter sea‐ice variability in the future is connected to ocean heat transport (OHT). We analyze and contrast the present and future link between Pacific and Atlantic OHT and the winter Arctic sea‐ice cover using simulations from seven single‐model large ensembles. We find strong model agreement for a poleward expanding impact of OHT through the Bering Strait and the Barents Sea under continued sea‐ice retreat. Model differences on the Atlantic side can be explained by the differences in the simulated variance of the Atlantic inflows. Model differences on the Pacific side can be explained by differences in the simulated strength of Pacific Water inflows, and upper‐ocean stratification and vertical mixing on the Chukchi shelf. Our work highlights the increasing importance of the Pacific and Atlantic water inflows to the Arctic Ocean and highlights which factors are important to correctly simulate in order to capture the changing impact of OHT in the warming Arctic. Plain Language Summary: The winter sea‐ice cover in the Arctic is retreating with global warming, but with a lot of variability from year to year. Some of this variability is determined by how much oceanic heat is transported into the Arctic Ocean via the Fram Strait, Barents Sea, and Bering Strait. We explore how this link between oceanic heat transport and sea ice will change in the future when the sea ice retreats further into the Arctic Ocean. We compare several climate models and find that most of them show a northward expanding footprint of heat transport through the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait. How much these oceanic transports still affect the future sea ice depends on far the sea ice retreats, changes in the inflowing waters, and the vertical stability of the upper layer in the Arctic Ocean. Key Points: Future climate model projections show a poleward shifted impact of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean heat transport on winter sea‐ice variabilityModels with a larger variance of Atlantic inflows simulate a larger influence of Atlantic heat transport on sea iceModels with a stronger volume transport and downstream stratification simulate a larger influence of Pacific heat transport on sea ice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols play a key role in polar climate, and are affected by long‐range transport from the mid‐latitudes, both in the Arctic and Antarctic. This work investigates poleward extreme transport events of aerosols, referred to as polar aerosol atmospheric rivers (p‐AAR), leveraging the concept of atmospheric rivers (AR) which signal extreme transport of moisture. Using reanalysis data, we build a detection catalog of p‐AARs for black carbon, dust, sea salt and organic carbon aerosols, for the period 1980–2022. First, we describe the detection algorithm, discuss its sensitivity, and evaluate its validity. Then, we present several extreme transport case studies, in the Arctic and in the Antarctic, illustrating the complementarity between ARs and p‐AARs. Despite similarities in transport pathways during co‐occurring AR/p‐AAR events, vertical profiles differ depending on the species, and large‐scale transport patterns show that moisture and aerosols do not necessarily originate from the same areas. The complementarity between AR and p‐AAR is also evidenced by their long‐term characteristics in terms of spatial distribution, seasonality and trends. p‐AAR detection, as a complement to AR, can have several important applications for better understanding polar climate and its connections to the mid‐latitudes. Plain Language Summary: The extreme transport of aerosol‐containing air masses, from the mid‐latitudes to the polar regions, can be characterized and quantified by leveraging polar Aerosol Atmospheric Rivers (p‐AARs). This is similar to the Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) which carry large amounts of water to the poles and affect the overall stability of polar ecosystems. In this work, we establish a detection algorithm for p‐AARs and evaluate it for different well‐known aerosol intrusions or AR events. The areas most affected by p‐AARs are described, their trends are investigated and we discuss the potential applications of p‐AAR detection for a better understanding of polar climate. Key Points: A catalog of polar aerosol atmospheric rivers (p‐AAR) is provided for 1980–2022 by adapting an atmospheric river (AR) detection schemeImportant p‐AAR events, representing rapid poleward transport of aerosol‐enriched air masses, are presentedCombining AR and p‐AAR can improve our understanding of the links between mid‐ and polar‐latitudes, in the past, present and future climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic sea ice has been declining rapidly in recent decades. We investigate how the poleward transport of moisture and heat from lower latitudes through atmospheric rivers (ARs) influences Arctic sea ice variations. We use hourly ERA5 (fifth-generation European Reanalysis) data for 1981–2020 at 0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘ resolution to examine the meteorological conditions and sea ice changes associated with ARs in the Arctic. In the years 2012 and 2020, which had an extremely low summer Arctic sea ice extent, we show that the individual AR events associated with large cyclones initiate a rapid sea ice decrease through turbulent heat fluxes and winds. We carry out further statistical analysis of the meteorological conditions and sea ice variations for 1981–2020 over the entire Arctic Ocean. We find that on weather timescales the atmospheric moisture content anticorrelates significantly with the sea ice concentration tendency almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean, while the dynamic sea ice motion driven by northward winds further reduces the sea ice concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Arctic warming under increased CO2 peaks in winter, but is influenced by summer forcing via seasonal ocean heat storage. Yet changes in atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic have mainly been investigated in the annual mean or winter, with limited focus on other seasons. We investigate the full seasonal cycle of poleward heat transport modeled with increased CO2 or with individually applied Arctic sea‐ice loss and global sea‐surface warming. We find that a winter reduction in dry heat transport is driven by Arctic sea‐ice loss and warming, while a summer increase in moist heat transport is driven by sub‐Arctic warming and moistening. Intermodel spread in Arctic warming controls spread in seasonal poleward heat transport. These seasonal changes and their intermodel spread are well‐captured by down‐gradient diffusive heat transport. While changes in moist and dry heat transport compensate in the annual‐mean, their opposite seasonality may support non‐compensating effects on Arctic warming. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Because Arctic warming peaks in winter, many studies have focused on the wintertime processes amplifying Arctic warming. However, others have found that summer atmospheric heating also contributes to winter warming by melting sea ice and storing heat in the ocean until it is released to the atmosphere in winter. Here we study changes in all seasons for one source of atmospheric heating in the Arctic—atmospheric heat transport from lower latitudes. Using climate model simulations, we find that heat and moisture are transported away from the regions that warm and moisten the most in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The Arctic warms more than lower latitudes in winter, which reduces heat transport to the Arctic in winter. Atmospheric moisture increases most in late summer at lower latitudes, driving increased moisture transport in late summer from lower latitudes to the Arctic. We suggest that changes in heat and moisture transport may impact Arctic warming differently due to their opposite seasonality: by producing a larger change in surface solar absorption, summer changes in moisture transport may outweigh winter changes in heat transport. Key Points: Sea‐ice loss reduces dry heat transport to the Arctic in winter; sub‐Arctic warming increases latent heat transport to the Arctic in summerIntermodel spread in Arctic warming controls intermodel spread in seasonal heat transport changesThe seasonal pattern of poleward heat transport change is well‐captured by down‐gradient diffusion of temperature and moisture anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Of all the Arctic seas, the prokaryotic communities of the Barents Sea are the most affected by climate change and are strongly influenced by microbiota from the Atlantic Ocean. Using 16S metabarcoding, we analyzed samples of prokaryotic plankton communities in the Barents Sea and found two types of communities. The origin of these communities is discussed in terms of biogeography. The Barents Sea is one of the most rapidly changing Arctic regions, with an unprecedented sea ice decline and increase in water temperature and salinity. We have studied the diversity of prokaryotic communities using 16S metabarcoding in the western and northeastern parts of the Barents Sea along the Kola Section and the section from Novaya Zemlya to Franz Joseph Land. The hypothesis-independent clustering method revealed the existence of two distinct types of communities. The most common prokaryotic taxa were shared between two types of communities, but their relative abundance was different. It was found that the geographic location of the sampling sites explained more than 30% of the difference between communities, while no statistically significant correlation between environmental parameters and community composition was found. The representatives of the Psychrobacter, Sulfitobacter and Polaribacter genera were dominant in samples from both types of communities. The first type of community was also dominated by members of Halomonas, Pseudoalteromonas, Planococcaceae and an unclassified representative of the Alteromonadaceae family. The second type of community also had a significant proportion of Nitrincolaceae, SAR92, SAR11 Clade I, NS9, Cryomorphaceae and SUP05 representatives. The origin of these communities can be explained by the influence of environmental factors or by the different origins of water masses. This research highlights the importance of studying biogeographic patterns in the Barents Sea in comparison with those in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean prokaryote communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on host–parasite systems that have experienced distributional shifts, range fragmentation, and population declines in the past can provide information regarding how parasite community richness and genetic diversity will change as a result of anthropogenic environmental changes in the future. Here, we studied how sequential postglacial colonization, shifts in habitat, and reduced host population sizes have influenced species richness and genetic diversity of Corynosoma (Acanthocephala: Polymorphidae) parasites in northern European marine, brackish, and freshwater seal populations. We collected Corynosoma population samples from Arctic, Baltic, Ladoga, and Saimaa ringed seal subspecies and Baltic gray seals, and then applied COI barcoding and triple‐enzyme restriction‐site associated DNA (3RAD) sequencing to delimit species, clarify their distributions and community structures, and elucidate patterns of intraspecific gene flow and genetic diversity. Our results showed that Corynosoma species diversity reflected host colonization histories and population sizes, with four species being present in the Arctic, three in the Baltic Sea, two in Lake Ladoga, and only one in Lake Saimaa. We found statistically significant population‐genetic differentiation within all three Corynosoma species that occur in more than one seal (sub)species. Genetic diversity tended to be high in Corynosoma populations originating from Arctic ringed seals and low in the landlocked populations. Our results indicate that acanthocephalan communities in landlocked seal populations are impoverished with respect to both species and intraspecific genetic diversity. Interestingly, the loss of genetic diversity within Corynosoma species seems to have been less drastic than in their seal hosts, possibly due to their large local effective population sizes resulting from high infection intensities and effective intra‐host population mixing. Our study highlights the utility of genomic methods in investigations of community composition and genetic diversity of understudied parasites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase in the interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain to what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to the projected IAV increase of PMT. We analyzed large‐ensemble climate simulations to (a) explore the link between PMT and ARs in the present‐day (PD) and in two warmer climates (+2 and +3°C compared to pre‐industrial global mean temperature), (b) assess the dynamic contribution to changes in future ARs, and (c) analyze the effect of ARs on Arctic climate on interannual timescales. We find that the share of AR‐related PMT (ARPMT) to PMT increases from 42% in the PD to 53% in the +3°C climate. Our results show that the mean increases in AR‐frequency and intensity are mainly caused by higher atmospheric moisture levels, while dynamic variability regulates regional ARs on an interannual basis. Notably, the amount of ARs reaching the Arctic in any given region and season strongly depends on the regional jet stream position and speed southwest of this region. This suggests that future changes in dynamics may significantly amplify or dampen the regionally consistent moisture‐induced increase in ARs in a warmer climate. Our results further support previous findings that positive ARPMT anomalies are profoundly linked to increased surface air temperature and precipitation, especially in the colder seasons, and have a predominantly negative effect on sea ice. Plain Language Summary: With ongoing global warming, the amount of moisture transported to the Arctic—and its interannual variability (IAV) (or year‐to‐year fluctuations)—will increase. While the former can be explained by a higher water holding capacity of the atmosphere, the cause of the latter is still uncertain. In this study, we link the IAV of poleward moisture transport (PMT) to atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are long narrow zones of relatively high water vapor content. Using a fully coupled global climate model, we detected ARs in a present‐day and two warmer climates. We find that the vast majority of the future increase in PMT is caused by more frequent and intense ARs. While the increase in ARs is largely caused by higher moisture levels, our results also point to a dynamic influence. For example, a regional poleward shift and increased speed of the jet stream is associated with more ARs to the northeast. We also see significantly higher surface temperature and precipitation rates near regions of anomalously high AR activity in all seasons, and a predominantly negative response of sea ice to ARs. These linkages persist in a warmer climate, implying an increase in AR‐related rainfall and the intensity of high‐temperature events. Key Points: The additional poleward moisture transport in warmer climates is almost exclusively due to atmospheric rivers (ARs)Higher atmospheric moisture levels are dominant in setting future AR increases, while dynamical changes are of secondary importanceThe interannual variability of ARs in local Arctic regions is closely related to the mid‐latitude jet position and speed to the southwest [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean-ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability is poorly documented, particularly at regional scale. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer (Qml) and in the 0–300 m layer (Q 300), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Qml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q 300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we analyse the contribution of atmospheric rivers (ARs), cyclones, and fronts to the total precipitation in the Arctic. We focus on two distinct periods of different weather conditions from two airborne campaigns: ACLOUD (Arctic Cloud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar day; May/June 2017) and AFLUX (Aircraft campaign Arctic Boundary Layer Fluxes; March/April 2019). Both campaigns covered the northern North Atlantic sector, the area in the Arctic that is affected by the highest precipitation rates. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we identify pronounced regional anomalies with enhanced precipitation rates compared to the climatology during ACLOUD due to these weather systems, whereas during AFLUX enhanced precipitation rates occur over most of the area. We have established a new methodology that allows us to analyse the contribution of ARs, cyclones, and fronts to precipitation rates based on ERA5 reanalysis and different detection algorithms. Here, we distinguish whether these systems occur co-located or separately. The contributions differ between the two periods. During ACLOUD (early summer), the precipitation rates are mainly associated with AR- (40 %) and front-related (55 %) components, especially if they are connected, while cyclone-related components (22 %) play a minor role. However, during AFLUX (early spring) the precipitation is mainly associated with cyclone-related components (62 %). For both campaign periods, snow is the dominant form of precipitation, and the small rain occurrence is almost all associated with ARs. About one-third of the precipitation can not be attributed to one of the weather systems, the so-called residual. While the residual can be found more frequently as convective than as large-scale precipitation, the rare occasion of convective precipitation (roughly 20 %) can not completely explain the residual. The fraction of precipitation classified as residual is reduced significantly when a precipitation threshold is applied that is often used to eliminate "artificial" precipitation. However, a threshold of 0.1 mm h -1 reduces the total accumulated precipitation by a factor of 2 (ACLOUD) and 3 (AFLUX), especially affecting light precipitation over the Arctic Ocean. We also show the dependence of the results on the choice of the detection algorithm serving as a first estimate of the uncertainty. In the future, we aim to apply the methodology to the full ERA5 record to investigate whether the differences found between the campaign periods are typical for the different seasons in which they were performed and whether any trends in precipitation associated with these weather systems can be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia pattern in recent decades has attracted extensive attention and has been partly attributed to rapid sea‐ice loss; however, such a link has been unstable over the past century. Here, we use centennial reanalyzes to investigate the multi‐decadal changes in the linkage between autumn Barents‐Kara sea‐ice and winter Eurasian temperature during the 20th century. Results show a negative Arctic‐Eurasian connection in 1901–1945 (P1), an inconspicuous connection in 1946–1985 (P2), and a significantly positive correlation in 1986–2013 (P3), with distinct stratospheric and tropospheric pathways mechanisms. The contrasting relationships between P1 and P3 are likely due to the different magnitudes of sea‐ice loss and the predominant roles of the atmosphere or sea‐ice in driving different Eurasian temperature effects. As further verification, the best group of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, which captured the realistic stratospheric pathway in recent decades, can reproduce the historical decadal changes in the Arctic‐Eurasian linkage. Plain Language Summary: Central Eurasia has experienced more frequent cold winters and extreme weather events in recent years. Many mechanisms have been proposed for the frequent occurrence of freezing winters. Both observational and modeling studies suggested that the rapid sea‐ice decline has influenced the increase in cold temperature events. Melting autumn sea‐ice leads to a weak polar vortex and subsequent cold winter in Eurasia. This correlation and physical linkage are verified by observation and model simulation after 1979 because the sea‐ice can be observed in the satellite era. In this study, we primarily examined the warm Arctic‐cold Eurasia pattern that existed and changed over the past century. Then we investigate the decadal change in the relationships between Barents‐Kara sea‐ice and the winter central Eurasian temperature on a centurial time‐scale which shows diverse features in different periods. An analysis of the model data set from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models confirms that the Arctic‐Eurasian relationship varies in three periods, and the models which can capture the realistic physical process in the stratosphere in recent three decades are able to reproduce the main feature of the evolution in the Arctic‐Eurasian relationship over the entire 20th century. Key Points: The linkage between autumn Barents‐Kara sea ice and winter Eurasian temperature showed decadal changes in the 20th century and is only significant in recent decadesThe stratospheric pathways and winter Ural Blocking activities can serve as bridges to link autumn sea ice and winter Eurasian temperature variabilityCoupled Model Intercomparison Project models with realistic stratospheric pathways can capture the observed multi‐decadal evolution of autumn sea ice‐winter Eurasian temperature linkage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is warming at an above-average rate, and small, shallow waterbodies such as ponds are vulnerable to this warming due to their low thermal inertia compared to larger lakes. While ponds are a relevant landscape-scale source of methane under the current climate, the response of pond methane emissions to warming is uncertain. We employ a new, process-based model for methane emissions from ponds (MeEP) to investigate the methane emission response of polygonal-tundra ponds in northeastern Siberia to warming. MeEP is the first dedicated model of pond methane emissions which differentiates between the three main pond types of the polygonal-tundra, ice-wedge, polygonal-center, and merged polygonal ponds and resolves the three main pathways of methane emissions – diffusion, ebullition, and plant-mediated transport. We perform idealized warming experiments, with increases in the mean annual temperature of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 ∘ C on top of a historical simulation. The simulations reveal an approximately linear increase in emissions from ponds of 1.33 g CH 4 yr -1 ∘ C -1 m -2 in this temperature range. Under annual temperatures 5 ∘ C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this emission increase is due to the additional substrate provided by the increased net productivity of the vascular plants. Furthermore, plant-mediated transport is the dominating pathway of methane emissions in all simulations. We conclude that vascular plants as a substrate source and efficient methane pathway should be included in future pan-Arctic assessments of pond methane emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Arctic has warmed faster than the global mean, especially during winter. This has been attributed to various causes, with recent studies highlighting the importance of enhanced downward infrared radiation associated with anomalous inflow of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. Here, we study wintertime surface energy budget (SEB) anomalies over Arctic sea ice on synoptic time scales, using ERA5 (1979–2020). We introduce a new algorithm to identify areas with extreme, positive daily mean SEB anomalies and connect them to form spatiotemporal life cycle events. Most of these events are associated with large-scale inflow from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, driven by poleward deflection of the storm track and blocks over northern Eurasia and Alaska. Events originate near the ice edge, where they have roughly equal contributions of net longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes to the positive SEB anomaly. As the events move farther into the Arctic, SEB anomalies decrease due to weakening sensible and latent heat-flux anomalies, while the surface temperature anomaly increases toward the peak of the events along with the downward longwave radiation anomaly. Due to these temporal and spatial differences, the largest SEB anomalies are not always related to strongest surface warming. Thus, studying temperature anomalies alone might not be sufficient to determine sea ice changes. This study highlights the importance of turbulent fluxes in driving SEB anomalies and downward longwave radiation in determining local surface warming. Therefore, both processes need to be accurately represented in climate models. Significance Statement: Mechanisms behind wintertime rapid Arctic warming and sea ice growth changes are not well understood. While much is known about the impact of radiative fluxes on both sea ice variability and surface warming, the relative importance of radiative and turbulent fluxes remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to clarify what controls surface energy budget (SEB) anomalies over sea ice. Along the life cycle of synoptic-scale events, positive SEB anomalies are shown to decrease and surface temperature anomalies increase after their onset. Additionally, variations in SEB anomalies are primarily controlled by turbulent fluxes, while downward longwave radiative fluxes are mainly responsible for surface temperature variations. These results highlight the need for accurate representations of these fluxes for predicting future Arctic climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extended‐range predictability of three simulated extreme cold events in East Asia in the Community Atmosphere Model (version 4) control experiment, whose atmospheric circulation backgrounds are similar to two recent observational cases, is investigated. The results show that they have a predictability of four pentads. Then, we evaluate the extent of the forecast uncertainty in the 4th pentad caused by the initial atmospheric uncertainties in the Arctic, which are large due to sparse instrumental observations. The initial uncertainty leading to the largest forecast uncertainty is obtained by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method, and referred to as the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty. The forecast of the cold surge in the 4th pentad fails after adding the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty at day 0. In comparison, the forecast uncertainties are much weaker when the initial conditions are perturbed by noises, and the weaker influence may be due to the noises' lack of spatial structure. In terms of how the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty develops, a baroclinic structure is seen in the uncertainties on the first 2 days, followed by a propagating Rossby wave feature from the 2nd pentad to the 4th pentad. Meanwhile, synoptic transient eddy feedback also plays an essential role. The results suggest that the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty has potential to identify sensitive areas for targeted observations; plus, it could serve as a member of ensemble initial perturbations, since it indicates the largest uncertainty growth. Plain Language Summary: Although the notable global warming trend continues, extreme cold events in East Asia remain a common feature during the winter season and cause huge socio‐economic impacts. The atmospheric initial conditions are crucial for the prediction over East Asia. However, they have large uncertainties in the Arctic due to the sparse coverage of conventional data. Utilizing the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method, what extent the initial uncertainty in the Arctic can influence the prediction of cold surges is investigated. The results demonstrate that initial Arctic uncertainty can lead to the prediction of cold events in fourth pentad failure. Such initial uncertainty may provide potential application in the identification of sensitive areas for targeted observations. Key Points: The predictability of three simulated extreme cold events in East Asia by CAM4 reaches four pentadsThe conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation‐type initial uncertainty in the Arctic can lead to an extreme cold event appearing as a normal or warm event in the 4th pentadThe forecast uncertainty caused by the noise in the Arctic is weak in the 4th pentad [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar amplification of climate change has the potential to cause large‐scale shifts in the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics of Arctic lakes, with implications for fish survival, greenhouse gas production, and drinking water quality. While DO is also a sentinel of environmental changes of physical, chemical, and biological nature (e.g., ice cover, temperature, dissolved organic carbon, photosynthesis, and respiration), no synthesis exists of current knowledge of DO dynamics across the diverse freshwater systems of the Arctic. We thus conducted a systematic review of the literature that yielded DO data from 167 sites north of the Subarctic limit (based on vegetation zones), spanning 76 years and including 40 sites with time series. The compilation revealed insufficient observations for adequate representativeness of oxygen dynamics over Arctic ecosystem gradients. We described the main processes controlling DO budgets of Arctic lakes and tested relationships of summer oxygen depletion with maximum depth and latitude. The meta‐analysis showed that most sites with low O2 concentrations were shallow (<10 m) and situated toward the southern end of the latitudinal gradient. Permanently stratified lakes with deep, perennially anoxic basins were located toward the northern end of the gradient. By way of a conceptual model, we identified the direct and indirect drivers and mechanisms that lead to changes in oxygen budgets in the context of the warming Arctic. This comprehensive update on available data allowed us to suggest future research directions and recommend the use of moored instruments for continuous all‐season observations, combined with modeling, remote sensing, and paleo‐reconstructions. Plain Language Summary: Lakes are dominant features of the Arctic landscape, and they have great cultural and environmental significance. The amplified effects of global warming observed in the Arctic represent a threat to the integrity of these systems. Levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in lake water have implications for fish survival, greenhouse gas production, and drinking water quality. To summarize the state of knowledge about DO in Arctic lakes, we reviewed literature and extracted data from 167 sites. We describe the main processes known to control the oxygen balance and classified the lakes according to their bottom oxygen concentrations during summer. Most lakes that had low oxygen were shallow and situated toward the southern part of our study region. Lakes that never mix, and thus preserve permanent oxygen depletion in their deep waters, were located toward the northern end of the gradient. With a conceptual model, we illustrate how climate change is likely to influence oxygen balance by the way of direct and indirect drivers. We suggest future research directions including the collection of continuous data throughout all seasons, modeling, remote sensing, and studies of sediment cores to reconstruct past conditions. Key Points: Our systematic review located oxygen data in the Arctic from 167 field sites spanning 76 years, including 40 lakes with time‐seriesMeta‐analysis showed that summer oxygen depletion occurred mostly in shallow lakes toward the southern end of the latitudinal gradientWe formulated conceptual models of oxygen sinks and sources relevant to Arctic lakes and their responses to ongoing climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The airborne field campaign HALO–(AC)³ took place from 07 March to 12 April 2022 and was designed to observe the transformation of air masses during their meridional transport in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. We evaluate the meteorological and sea ice conditions during the campaign based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), satellite data, and atmospheric soundings with respect to climatology and describe special synoptic events. HALO–(AC)³ started with a warm period (11–20 March) where strong southerly winds prevailed that caused moist and warm air intrusions (MWAIs). Two MWAIs were detected as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Compared to the ERA5 climatology (1979–2022), record breaking vertically integrated poleward heat and moisture fluxes averaged over 75.0–81.5° N were found. The related warm and moist air masses reached the central Arctic, causing the highest rainfall rates over the sea ice northwest of Svalbard recorded since the beginning of the ERA5 climatology. Subsequently, the cold period of HALO–(AC)³ started after the passage of a Shapiro–Keyser cyclone on 21 March when the wind regime turned to northerlies, advecting colder air into the Fram Strait. Until 08 April, marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) prevailed, including two strong MCAO events on 21–26 March and 01–02 April. In between, aged subpolar warm air was advected to the Fram Strait with northeasterly and easterly winds. On average, the campaign period was warmer than the climatology, especially due to the exceptionally strong ARs during the warm period. In the Fram Strait, the sea ice concentration (SIC) was within the 10–90th percentiles of the climatology over the entire campaign duration. During the warm period, SIC was strongly reduced and an untypically large polynya for this season opened north of Svalbard. During the cold period, the polynya was closed again and above average SICs were found. We describe the environmental conditions of a Polar Low and far north reaching cirrus in detail, which will be subjects of research using HALO's remote sensing suite in the future. We also present the perspective on the HALO–(AC)³ weather conditions from the research site Ny–Ålesund, where orographic effects caused by the Svalbard archipelago and temporal shifts of atmospheric signals due to the propagation of synoptic systems must be taken into account. Overall, our study may serve as basis for future analyses of the data collected during HALO–(AC)³ and to compare synoptic conditions with other field campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) can initiate ice formation in clouds at temperatures above -38 ∘ C through heterogeneous ice nucleation. As a result, INPs affect cloud microphysical and radiative properties, cloud lifetime, and precipitation behavior and thereby ultimately the Earth's climate. Yet, little is known regarding the sources, abundance and properties of INPs, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. In this study, 2-year-long INP measurements (from July 2018 to September 2020) at Villum Research Station in northern Greenland are presented. A low-volume filter sampler was deployed to collect filter samples for offline INP analysis. An annual cycle of INP concentration (NINP) was observed, and the fraction of heat-labile INPs was found to be higher in months with low to no snow cover and lower in months when the surface was well covered in snow (> 0.8 m). Samples were categorized into three different types based only on the slope of their INP spectra, namely into summer, winter and mix type. For each of the types a temperature-dependent INP parameterization was derived, clearly different depending on the time of the year. Winter and summer types occurred only during their respective seasons and were seen 60 % of the time. The mixed type occurred in the remaining 40 % of the time throughout the year. April, May and November were found to be transition months. A case study comparing April 2019 and April 2020 was performed. The month of April was selected because a significant difference in NINP was observed during these two periods, with clearly higher NINP in April 2020. In parallel to the observed differences in NINP , also a higher cloud-ice fraction was observed in satellite data for April 2020, compared to April 2019. NINP in the case study period revealed no clear dependency on either meteorological parameters or different surface types which were passed by the collected air masses. Overall, the results suggest that the coastal regions of Greenland were the main sources of INPs in April 2019 and 2020, most likely including both local terrestrial and marine sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications. Plain Language Summary: Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the future based on the latest climate models. However, there is a large discrepancy between these climate models. We find that simulated Arctic climate change tends to be much larger in models using the community ocean model "NEMO" as their ocean component. Future Arctic climate change in winter strongly depends on the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in the NEMO‐family climate models. There are some indications that this group of models can better reproduce the observed winter sea ice decline and mixed layer depth in the Barents Sea in their historical simulations. We suggest that investigating the model physics in the NEMO‐family climate models in comparison with other models may ultimately help to reduce the overall uncertainty in climate change projections. Key Points: Future Arctic climate change in winter strongly depends on the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT)Arctic climate change in the NEMO‐family climate models is much more pronouncedNEMO‐family climate models have larger increases in poleward OHT [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale are thought to be remotely modulated by oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic. Nevertheless, further elucidating the dynamics is essential for clarifying ongoing debates. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics provide a concise explanation for these teleconnections. Our findings demonstrate that extratropical oceans and the Arctic can remotely modulate the wintertime continental temperature variations by stimulating PV anomalies, which are constrained by climatological PV gradients and jet streams. A causal explanation includes anomalous temperature and precipitation over oceans and the Arctic inducing local PV anomalies via diabatic heating. Subsequently, meridional and downstream advection distributes the anomalous PV to remote land regions where the climatological PV gradients are strong, that is, involving PV fronts, as well as jet streams; therefore, PV fronts and jet streams jointly indicate land regions that are largely and frequently impacted. However, land can also modulate other regions through the same mechanism when variations over land occur in advance. Clear causality depends on which factor is independent, while interactions among those regions may convolute the causality, thereby causing further debates. Plain Language Summary: Studies have indicated the crucial influences of both the oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic on regional wintertime temperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale. However, a concise explanation of the underlying mechanisms is necessary, especially when causality in the Arctic and mid‐latitude connections is under debate. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics can provide a lucid viewpoint. In particular, the findings demonstrate that PV fronts (i.e., regions with strong climatological PV gradients) and jet streams jointly constrain the land regions that are most influenced by oceans and the Arctic. This PV perspective can be applied to general teleconnections over a wide frequency range. Key Points: A PV perspective concisely explains how extratropical oceans and the Arctic remotely influence the land temperaturePV fronts and jet streams jointly constrain the preferred land regions influenced by oceans and the ArcticThe PV perspective holds for both mean climate change and high‐frequency weather variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantifies the contribution to Arctic winter surface warming from changes in the tropospheric energy transport (Ftrop) and the efficiency with which Ftrop heats the surface in the RCP8.5 warming scenario of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. A metric for this efficiency, Etrop, measures the fraction of anomalous Ftrop that is balanced by an anomalous net surface flux (NSF). Drivers of Etrop are identified in synoptic‐scale events during which Ftrop is the dominant driver of NSF. Etrop is sensitive to the vertical structure of Ftrop and pre‐existing Arctic lower‐tropospheric stability (LTS). In RCP8.5, winter‐mean Ftrop decreases from 95.1 to 85.4 W m−2, while Etrop increases by 5.7%, likely driven by decreased Arctic LTS, indicating an increased coupling between Ftrop and the surface energy budget. The net impact of decreasing Ftrop and increasing efficiency is a positive 0.7 W m−2 contribution to winter‐season surface heating. Plain Language Summary: The role of atmospheric circulations in future Arctic surface warming is typically assessed through changes in total energy transported into the Arctic, assuming a vertically uniform temperature response. However, the Arctic response to energy input during short timescale winter weather events is sensitive to the vertical structure of the transport and the pre‐existing surface state. Using climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gases, this study quantifies changes in the fraction of excess energy absorbed by the surface during individual weather events. The total energy transport is found to decrease. However, this decrease is overcompensated by an increase in the per‐event surface heating efficiency. The net effect is a small positive contribution to Arctic surface warming. Key Points: The poleward atmospheric energy flux into the Arctic decreases in the RCP8.5 warming scenario of the Community Earth System Model Large EnsembleThe efficiency with which the atmospheric energy flux heats the Arctic surface increases in the RCP8.5 warming scenarioChanges in the atmospheric energy flux contribute to Arctic surface warming despite a decrease in the vertical integral of the energy flux [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data‐limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed‐effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths (N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual‐level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow‐through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now well established that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by a dramatic decline in sea ice, has been linked to cooling over the Eurasian subcontinent over recent decades, most dramatically during the period 1998–2012. This is a counter-intuitive impact under global warming given that land regions should warm more than ocean (and the global average). Some studies have proposed a causal teleconnection from Arctic sea-ice retreat to Eurasian wintertime cooling; other studies argue that Eurasian cooling is mainly driven by internal variability. Overall, there is an impression of strong disagreement between those holding the "ice-driven" versus "internal variability" viewpoints. Here, we offer an alternative framing showing that the sea ice and internal variability views can be compatible. Key to this is viewing Eurasian cooling through the lens of dynamics (linked primarily to internal variability with some potential contribution from sea ice; cools Eurasia) and thermodynamics (linked to sea-ice retreat; warms Eurasia). This approach, combined with recognition that there is uncertainty in the hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints (and others) to co-exist and contribute to our understanding of Eurasian cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows that Eurasian cooling of this magnitude is consistent with internal variability, with some periods exhibiting stronger cooling than others, either by chance or by forced changes. Rather than posit a "yes-or-no" causal relationship between sea ice and Eurasian cooling, a more constructive way forward is to consider whether the cooling trend was more likely given the observed sea-ice loss, as well as other sources of low-frequency variability. Taken in this way both sea ice and internal variability are factors that affect the likelihood of strong regional cooling in the presence of ongoing global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘ C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO2-forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar amplified in the Arctic but not in the Antarctic—a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and 11 LongRunMIP GCMs that the hemispherically symmetric component of global-mean-normalized, zonal-mean warming ( T sym * ) under 4 × CO2 changes weakly or becomes modestly more polar amplified from the first decade to near-equilibrium. Conversely, the antisymmetric warming component ( T asym * ) weakens with time in all models, modestly in some including FAMOUS, but effectively vanishing in others including CESM1. We explore mechanisms underlying the robust T sym * behavior with a diffusive moist energy balance model (MEBM), which given radiative feedback parameter (λ) and ocean heat uptake (O) fields diagnosed from CESM1 adequately reproduces the CESM1 T sym * and T asym * fields. In further MEBM simulations perturbing λ and O , T sym * is sensitive to their symmetric components only, and more to that of λ. A three-box, two-time-scale model fitted to FAMOUS and CESM1 reveals a curiously short Antarctic fast-response time scale in FAMOUS. In additional CESM1 simulations spanning a broader range of forcings, T sym * changes modestly across 2–16 × CO2, and T sym * in a Pliocene-like simulation is more polar amplified but likewise approximately time invariant. Determining the real-world relevance of these behaviors—which imply that a surprising amount of information about near-equilibrium polar amplification emerges within decades—merits further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic Water (AW) is the largest reservoir of heat in the Arctic Ocean, isolated from the surface and sea ice by a strong halocline. In recent years, AW shoaling and warming are thought to have had an increased influence on sea ice in the Eurasian Basin. In this study, we analyze 59,000 profiles from across the Arctic from the 1970s to 2018 to obtain an observationally based pan‐Arctic picture of the AW layer, and to quantify temporal and spatial changes. The potential temperature maximum of the AW (the AW core) is found to be an easily detectable, and generally effective metric for assessments of AW properties, although temporal trends in AW core properties do not always reflect those of the entire AW layer. The AW core cools and freshens along the AW advection pathway as the AW loses heat and salt through vertical mixing at its upper bound, as well as via likely interaction with cascading shelf flows. In contrast to the Eurasian Basin, where the AW warms (by approximately 0.7°C between 2002 and 2018) in a pulse‐like fashion and has an increased influence on upper ocean heat content, AW in the Canadian Basin cools (by approximately 0.1°C between 2008 and 2018) and becomes more isolated from the surface due to the intensification of the Beaufort Gyre. These opposing AW trends in the Eurasian and Canadian Basins of the Arctic over the last 40 years suggest that AW in these two regions may evolve differently over the coming decades. Plain Language Summary: A few hundred meters beneath the surface of the Arctic Ocean lies a warm, salty layer of Atlantic origin, called Atlantic Water (AW), which is isolated from sea ice and the ocean surface by a vertical salinity gradient that acts as a barrier between the AW and the surface. In recent years, weakening of this barrier and warming of AW in the eastern Arctic have contributed to unprecedented sea‐ice loss. This study analyses 59,000 vertical temperature and salinity profiles from the Arctic Ocean from the 1970s to 2018 to obtain a broad picture of the AW and its variability. The AW temperature maximum is found to be an easily observable, generally effective way to assess how much heat is stored in the AW layer. Over the period studied, the AW in the eastern Arctic warmed and had an increasing influence on the amount of heat in the surface layer, whereas AW heat became increasingly isolated from the surface in the west due to changes in local winds. The emergence of a characteristically different eastern and western Arctic Ocean in the future could have important consequences, both in terms of Arctic sea‐ice loss and global ocean circulation. Key Points: Atlantic Water (AW) is evolving in opposing ways in the eastern and western sectorsData suggest that AW cools during transit via vertical mixing at its upper bound and through interaction with cool dense shelf watersAW core temperature is generally effective in assessing AW heat content but does not always capture temporal trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warm Arctic‐cold continent (WACC) pattern has been one of the main characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate variability in winter during the last two decades. However, the factors contributing this pattern remain unclear. We compared the two leading modes of surface temperature in the NH winter on an interdecadal timescale and explored the role of high‐latitude concurrent blockings (HCBs) and the Arctic oscillation (AO) in these two modes. Results show that the first mode resembling the WACC pattern is more related to enhanced HCBs over the Ural Mountains and the North Pacific than the AO. The HCBs induce a warmer Arctic by simultaneously transporting large amounts of moisture and heat. The HCBs excite a tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly near the Arctic Circle, which, in turn, triggers anomalies in the propagation of planetary waves and the meridional circulation, with a subsequent redistribution of momentum and heat. This is accompanied by a weak polar night jet and a poleward shift in the subtropical westerly jet, resulting in mild cold mid‐latitude continents. The second mode represents the AO pattern, which has a different mechanism from WACC. The high‐pressure anomaly over the North Pacific has played an increasingly important part in the WACC mode in recent decades and the WACC pattern with HCBs is more easily reproduced in simulations with human activity. HCBs therefore require further consideration under the current and future conditions of global warming. Plain Language Summary: A rapidly warming Arctic and mild cold mid‐latitude continents have been one of the main characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere winter during the last two decades. However, the factors contributing this warm Arctic‐cold continent (WACC) pattern remain unclear, although anomalies in blocking highs and the Arctic oscillation (AO) are possible factors. The mode with high‐latitude concurrent blockings (HCBs) is more consistent with the WACC pattern than the AO. In the HCB mode, a strong anticyclonic anomalous circulation over the Arctic Circle, excited by the strong HCBs over the Ural Mountains and the North Pacific, changes the polar atmospheric circulation and redistributes both momentum and heat to give a warmer Arctic than in the AO mode. A weak polar night jet and a poleward shift in the subtropical westerly jet result in mild cold mid‐latitude continents. However, these features are not seen in the AO mode, which is characterized by cool continents and a warm Greenland. Besides, human activities may also be contributed to the interdecadal WACC because there is an interdecadal increase in the WACC pattern with HCBs in the CMIP6 simulations with human activities. These results suggest that the role of HCBs should be highly paid attention in winter mid‐high latitude extreme events in recent decades. Key Points: A warm Arctic‐cold continent (WACC) pattern is associated with enhanced high‐latitude concurrent blockings (HCBs) over the Ural Mountains and North PacificThe HCBs excite a tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly near the Arctic Circle, which leads to more warm moist air into the ArcticThe WACC pattern with HCBs is more easily reproduced in CMIP6 simulations with human activity than in simulations without human activity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations have shown subseasonal reversal of temperature anomalies between early and late winter over Eurasia, which is distinct from the seasonal mean condition. Based on the reanalysis data, the 1800‐year control simulation and the 40‐member ensemble simulations in 1920–2100 from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE), this study reveals that the reversal of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies between early and late winter is one of the dominant and intrinsic features of the Arctic‐Eurasian winter climate. Such a reversal is characterized by "colder Arctic, warmer Eurasia" in December (January–February) and "warmer Arctic, colder Eurasia" in January–February (December). Robust climate dynamic processes associated with the reversal of SAT anomalies, including subseasonal reversals of anomalies in the Ural blocking, midlatitude westerlies, and stratospheric polar vortex, are found in both reanalysis data and CESM simulations, indicating the important role of internal atmospheric variability. Further analysis reveals that the reversal of Ural blocking anomalies in late December can be a potential precursor for the reversal of SAT anomalies in late winter. The reversal of midlatitude westerly wind anomalies associated with the Ural blocking can affect upward propagation of planetary‐scale waves especially with wavenumber 1, subsequently promoting the contribution of stratospheric polar vortex to the reversal of SAT anomalies in late winter over the Arctic‐Eurasian regions. Such a troposphere‐stratosphere pathway triggered by the perturbation of tropospheric circulations is confirmed by the CESM‐LE simulations, and it may be useful for the prediction of subseasonal reversal of SAT anomalies. Plain Language Summary: Observations show that Eurasia may experience subseasonal reverse temperature anomalies from early to late winter. For example, the warmer‐than‐normal conditions in early winter can change to colder‐than‐normal conditions in late winter. Such a reverse temperature anomaly in Eurasia is usually concurrent with a reverse one in the Arctic. The "colder Arctic, warmer Eurasia" pattern in early winter followed by "warmer Arctic, colder Eurasia" pattern in late winter is robustly detected in climate model simulations, indicating that the subseasonal reversal of temperature anomalies is one of the intrinsic features of the Arctic‐Eurasian climate. This feature is associated with robust climate dynamic processes, including subseasonal reversals of the anomalies in the Ural blocking, the midlatitude westerly winds, and the stratospheric polar vortex. Because the Ural blocking can trigger the troposphere‐stratosphere interaction, the reversal of Ural blocking anomalies in late December can be a potential precursor for the reversal of surface air temperature anomalies in late winter. Key Points: Reversal of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies between early and late winter is an intrinsic feature of the Arctic‐Eurasian climateThe changes of Ural blocking in late December may indicate whether the SAT in late winter will be reversed to early winterRobust climate dynamic processes associated with such a reversal of SAT are found in both reanalysis data and long‐term model simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multidecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been reconstructed by various proxies, simulated in climate models, and linked to multidecadal Arctic salinity variability. Here we construct a simple conceptual model to understand the two‐way interactions of the Arctic with multidecadal AMOC variability through a delayed oscillator mechanism. We revise Stommel's Two‐Box Model by including an advective time delay for the Arctic density/salinity anomalies to reach the subpolar North Atlantic and a coupled negative feedback between the AMOC and the freshwater flux entering the Arctic through atmosphere and/or sea ice responses. Self‐sustained multidecadal AMOC oscillations exist in the revised Stommel's Two‐Box model if the oceanic advective time delay is longer than the oscillation threshold, and the periods of the AMOC delayed oscillator depend crucially on this advective time delay. The coupled freshwater feedback provides additional delayed negative feedback and reduces the advective time delay threshold required for the oscillations. Plain Language Summary: Stommel's Two‐Box Model provides a pioneering and powerful theoretical framework to study the mechanisms of steady Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) states and abrupt AMOC changes. However, Stommel's Two‐Box Model itself does not include a self‐sustained multidecadal AMOC oscillation solution. In our study, we revise Stommel's Two‐Box model by considering the delayed oceanic advective time lag for the Arctic density/salinity anomalies to reach the subpolar North Atlantic and the dependence of the freshwater flux entering the Arctic on the AMOC strength. The revised Stommel's Two‐Box Model is able to obtain the AMOC delayed oscillator at multidecadal timescales and suggests the important role of the Arctic salinity anomalies and associated delayed negative feedback in the multidecadal AMOC variability. The regimes and multidecadal periods of the AMOC delayed oscillator depend crucially on the advective time scale of the Arctic signal reaching the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC‐related coupled freshwater feedback provides additional delayed negative feedback and reduces the threshold of the advective time delay needed for the multidecadal AMOC oscillations. Key Points: Multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability exists in revised Stommel's Two‐Box Model with advective time delay and coupled freshwater feedback includedRegimes/periods of the AMOC delayed oscillator depend on the advective time lag of Arctic salinity signal and freshwater feedback strengthThe model suggests an important role of the Arctic salinity and delayed negative freshwater feedback in the multidecadal AMOC variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analytical conditions for estimating the contribution of various internal and external factors to the formation of Arctic (polar) amplification under warming of the Earth's climate system with strongest changes in the surface temperature at high latitudes compared to lower latitudes have been obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid evolution of science compels renewal of a knowledge-based policy, particularly in cold regions. In the Arctic and Himalayas, which have undergone a significant climate change, there is a disconnect between scientific knowledge and the practices of policy. The rising air temperatures, decreasing ice and snow, increasing precipitation and plastic waste pollutants and the Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean by receiving warmer and saltier water from the Atlantic Ocean call for scientific research questions to strengthen the linkage between science and policy. The Arctic amplification can have remote impacts on other parts of the globe through oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. Hence, researchers need to push the frontiers of scientific discoveries through multidisciplinary and collaborative approaches in the Arctic Ocean along with connections to the Third Pole – Himalayas. The overall objectives of this paper are to explore how a comparison of the Arctic and the Third Pole is valuable for understanding the Arctic and global biogeophysical processes in this epoch of anthropogenic climate change; provide a strong linkage between the Arctic scientific research and its relevance to society; and help advance a more sustainable future for the Arctic, the Third Pole and the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is generating sufficient risk for nation-states and citizens throughout the Arctic to warrant potentially radical geoengineering solutions. Currently, geoengineering solutions such as surface albedo modification or aerosol deployment are in the early stages of testing and development. Due to the scale of deployments necessary to enact change, and their preliminary nature, these methods are likely to result in unforeseen consequences. These consequences may range in severity from local ecosystem impacts to large scale changes in available solar energy. The Arctic is an area that is experiencing rapid change, increased development, and exploratory interest, and proposed solutions have the potential to produce new risks to both natural and human systems. This article examines potential security and ethical considerations of geoengineering solutions in the Arctic from the perspectives of securitization, consequentialism, and risk governance approaches, and argues that proactive and preemptive frameworks at the international level, and especially the application of risk governance approaches, will be needed to prevent or limit negative consequences resulting from geoengineering efforts. Utilizing the unique structures already present in Arctic governance provides novel options for addressing these concerns from both the perspective of inclusive governance and through advancing the understanding of uncertainty analysis and precautionary principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The processes that contribute to the Arctic amplification of global surface warming are often described in the context of climate feedbacks. Previous studies have used a traditional feedback analysis framework to partition the regional surface warming into contributions from each feedback process. However, this partitioning can be complicated by interactions in the climate system. Here we focus instead on the physically intuitive approach of inactivating individual feedback processes during forced warming and evaluating the resulting change in the surface temperature field. We investigate this using a moist energy balance model with spatially varying feedbacks that are specified from comprehensive climate model results. We find that when warming is attributed to each feedback process by comparing how the climate would change if the process were not active, the water vapor feedback is the primary reason that the Arctic region warms more than the tropics, and the lapse rate feedback has a neutral effect on Arctic amplification by cooling the Arctic and the tropics by approximately equivalent amounts. These results are strikingly different from previous feedback analyses, which identified the lapse rate feedback as the largest contributor to Arctic amplification, with the water vapor feedback being the main opposing factor by warming the tropics more than the Arctic region. This highlights the importance of comparing different approaches of analyzing how feedbacks contribute to warming in order to build a better understanding of how feedbacks influence climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore the spatial structure of Barents Sea ice change as observed over the last 40 years. The dominant mode of winter sea ice concentration interannual variability corresponds to areal change (explains 43% of spatial variance) and has a center of action in the northeastern Barents Sea where the temperate Atlantic inflow meets the wintertime sea ice. Sea ice area import and northerly wind also contribute to this "areal-change mode"; the area increases with more ice import and stronger winds from the north. The remaining 57% variance in sea ice, individually and combined, redistributes the sea ice without changing the total area. The two leading redistribution modes are a dipole of increase in sea ice concentration south of Svalbard with decrease southwest of Novaya Zemlya, and a tripole of increase in the central Barents Sea with decrease east of Svalbard and in the southeastern Barents Sea. Redistribution is mainly contributed by anomalous wind and sea ice area import. Basic predictability (i.e., the lagged response to observed drivers) is predominantly associated with the areal-change mode as influenced by temperature of the Atlantic inflow and sea ice import from the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic amplification has been attributed predominantly to a positive lapse rate feedback in winter, when boundary layer temperature inversions focus warming near the surface. Predicting high-latitude climate change effectively thus requires identifying the local and remote physical processes that set the Arctic's vertical warming structure. In this study, we analyze output from the CESM Large Ensemble's twenty-first-century climate change projection to diagnose the relative influence of two Arctic heating sources, local sea ice loss and remote changes in atmospheric heat transport. Causal effects are quantified with a statistical inference method, allowing us to assess the energetic pathways mediating the Arctic temperature response and the role of internal variability across the ensemble. We find that a step-increase in latent heat flux convergence causes Arctic lower-tropospheric warming in all seasons, while additionally reducing net longwave cooling at the surface. However, these effects only lead to small and short-lived changes in boundary layer inversion strength. By contrast, a step-decrease in sea ice extent in the melt season causes, in fall and winter, surface-amplified warming and weakened boundary layer temperature inversions. Sea ice loss also enhances surface turbulent heat fluxes and cloud-driven condensational heating, which mediate the atmospheric temperature response. While the aggregate effect of many moist transport events and seasons of sea ice loss will be different than the response to hypothetical perturbations, our results nonetheless highlight the mechanisms that alter the Arctic temperature inversion in response to CO2 forcing. As sea ice declines, the atmosphere's boundary layer temperature structure is weakened, static stability decreases, and a thermodynamic coupling emerges between the Arctic surface and the overlying troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, a significant increase in the atmospheric moisture content has been documented over the Arctic, where both local contributions and poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes can play a role. This study focuses on the anomalous moisture transport events confined to long and narrow corridors, known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are expected to have a strong influence on Arctic moisture amounts, precipitation, and the energy budget. During two concerted intensive measurement campaigns – Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD) and the Physical feedbacks of Arctic planetary boundary layer, Sea ice, Cloud and AerosoL (PASCAL) – that took place at and near Svalbard, three high-water-vapour-transport events were identified as ARs, based on two tracking algorithms: the 30 May event, the 6 June event, and the 9 June 2017 event. We explore the temporal and spatial evolution of the events identified as ARs and the associated precipitation patterns in detail using measurements from the French (Polar Institute Paul Emile Victor) and German (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research) Arctic Research Base (AWIPEV) in Ny-Ålesund, satellite-borne measurements, several reanalysis products (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA) Interim (ERA-Interim); the ERA5 reanalysis; the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2); the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2); and the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55)), and the HIRHAM regional climate model version 5 (HIRHAM5). Results show that the tracking algorithms detected the events differently, which is partly due to differences in the spatial and temporal resolution as well as differences in the criteria used in the tracking algorithms. The first event extended from western Siberia to Svalbard, caused mixed-phase precipitation, and was associated with a retreat of the sea-ice edge. The second event, 1 week later, had a similar trajectory, and most precipitation occurred as rain, although mixed-phase precipitation or only snowfall occurred in some areas, mainly over the coast of north-eastern Greenland and the north-east of Iceland, and no differences were noted in the sea-ice edge. The third event showed a different pathway extending from the north-eastern Atlantic towards Greenland before turning south-eastward and reaching Svalbard. This last AR caused high precipitation amounts on the east coast of Greenland in the form of rain and snow and showed no precipitation in the Svalbard region. The vertical profiles of specific humidity show layers of enhanced moisture that were concurrent with dry layers during the first two events and that were not captured by all of the reanalysis datasets, whereas the HIRHAM5 model misrepresented humidity at all vertical levels. There was an increase in wind speed with height during the first and last events, whereas there were no major changes in the wind speed during the second event. The accuracy of the representation of wind speed by the reanalyses and the model depended on the event. The objective of this paper was to build knowledge from detailed AR case studies, with the purpose of performing long-term analysis. Thus, we adapted a regional AR detection algorithm to the Arctic and analysed how well it identified ARs, we used different datasets (observational, reanalyses, and model) and identified the most suitable dataset, and we analysed the evolution of the ARs and their impacts in terms of precipitation. This study shows the importance of the Atlantic and Siberian pathways of ARs during spring and beginning of summer in the Arctic; the significance of the AR-associated strong heat increase, moisture increase, and precipitation phase transition; and the requirement for high-spatio-temporal-resolution datasets when studying these intense short-duration events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is warming faster than the global average and any other region of a similar size. One important factor in this is the poleward atmospheric transport of heat and moisture, which contributes directly to the surface and air warming. In this case study, the atmospheric circulation and spatio-temporal structure of a moisture intrusion event is assessed, which occurred from 5 to 7 June 2017 over the Nordic seas during an intensive measurement campaign over Svalbard. This analysis focuses on high-spatial-resolution simulations with the ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) model which is put in context with coarser-resolution runs as well the ERA5 reanalysis. A variety of observations including passive microwave satellite measurements is used for evaluation. The global operational ICON forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) at 13 km horizontal resolution are used to drive high-resolution Limited-Area Mode (LAM) ICON simulations over the Arctic with 6 and 3 km horizontal resolutions. The results show the skilful capacity of the ICON-LAM model to represent the observed spatio-temporal structure of the selected moisture intrusion event and its signature in the temperature, humidity and wind profiles, and surface radiation. In several aspects, the high-resolution simulations offer a higher accuracy than the global simulations and the ERA5 reanalysis when evaluated against observations. One feature where the high-resolution simulations demonstrated an advanced skill is the representation of the changing vertical structure of specific humidity and wind associated with the moisture intrusion passing Ny-Ålesund (western Svalbard); the humidity increase at 1–2 km height topped by a dry layer and the development of a low-level wind jet are best represented by the 3 km simulation. The study also demonstrates that such moisture intrusions can have a strong impact on the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. A drastic decrease in downward shortwave radiation by ca. 500 W m -2 as well as an increase in downward longwave radiation by ca. 100 W m -2 within 3 h have been determined. These results highlight the importance of both moisture and clouds associated with this event for the surface energy budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two high-resolution model simulations are used to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the Arctic Ocean sea level. The model simulations reveal barotropic sea level variability at periods of < 30 d, which is strongly captured by bottom pressure observations. The seasonal sea level variability is driven by volume exchanges with the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the redistribution of the water by the wind. Halosteric effects due to river runoff and evaporation minus precipitation ice melting/formation also contribute in the marginal seas and seasonal sea ice extent regions. In the central Arctic Ocean, especially the Canadian Basin, the decadal halosteric effect dominates sea level variability. The study confirms that satellite altimetric observations and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) could infer the total freshwater content changes in the Canadian Basin at periods longer than 1 year, but they are unable to depict the seasonal and subseasonal freshwater content changes. The increasing number of profiles seems to capture freshwater content changes since 2007, encouraging further data synthesis work with a more complicated interpolation method. Further, in situ hydrographic observations should be enhanced to reveal the freshwater budget and close the gaps between satellite altimetry and GRACE, especially in the marginal seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many areas in the Arctic are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We observe large-scale effects on physical, biological, economic and social parameters, including ice cover, species distributions, economic activity and regional governance frameworks. Arctic living marine resources are affected in various ways. A holistic understanding of these effects requires a multidisciplinary enterprise. We synthesize relevant research, from oceanography and ecology, via economics, to political science and international law. We find that multidisciplinary research can enhance our understanding and promote new questions and issues relating to impacts and outcomes of climate change in the Arctic. Such issues include recent insights on changing spawning migrations of the North-east Arctic cod stock that necessitates revisions of socioeconomic estimates of ecosystem wealth in the Barents Sea, better integrated prediction systems that require increased cooperation between experts on climate prediction and ecosystem modelling, and institutional complexities of Arctic governance that require enhanced coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals exhibit varied life‐history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic‐breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high‐latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black brant [Branta bernicla nigricans], lesser snow geese [Chen caerulescens caerulescens], semipalmated sandpipers [Calidris pusilla], and Lapland longspurs [Calcarius lapponicus]) with varied life histories at an Arctic site in Alaska, USA, to understand how life‐history traits help moderate environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle. We monitored aspects of reproductive performance related to the timing of breeding, reproductive investment, and chick growth from 2011 to 2018. In response to early snowmelt and warm temperatures, semipalmated sandpipers advanced their site arrival and bred in higher numbers, while brant and snow geese increased clutch sizes; all four species advanced their nest initiation dates. During chick rearing, longspur nestlings were relatively resilient to environmental variation, whereas warmer temperatures increased the growth rates of sandpiper chicks but reduced growth rates of snow goose goslings. These responses generally aligned with traits along the capital‐income spectrum of nutrient acquisition and altricial–precocial modes of chick growth. Under a warming climate, the ability to mobilize endogenous reserves likely provides geese with relative flexibility to adjust the timing of breeding and the size of clutches. Higher temperatures, however, may negatively affect the quality of herbaceous foods and slow gosling growth. Species may possess traits that are beneficial during one phase of the reproductive cycle and others that may be detrimental at another phase, uneven responses that may be amplified with future climate warming. These results underscore the need to consider multiple phases of the reproductive cycle when assessing the effects of environmental variability on Arctic‐breeding birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review recent trends and projected future physical and chemical changes under climate change in transition zones between Arctic and Subarctic regions with a focus on the two major inflow gateways to the Arctic, one in the Pacific (i.e. Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and the Chukchi Sea) and the other in the Atlantic (i.e. Fram Strait and the Barents Sea). Sea-ice coverage in the gateways has been disappearing during the last few decades. Projected higher air and sea temperatures in these gateways in the future will further reduce sea ice, and cause its later formation and earlier retreat. An intensification of the hydrological cycle will result in less snow, more rain, and increased river runoff. Ocean temperatures are projected to increase, leading to higher heat fluxes through the gateways. Increased upwelling at the Arctic continental shelf is expected as sea ice retreats. The pH of the water will decline as more atmospheric CO2 is absorbed. Long-term surface nutrient levels in the gateways will likely decrease due to increased stratification and reduced vertical mixing. Some effects of these environmental changes on humans in Arctic coastal communities are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether sea‐ice loss or lapse‐rate feedback dominates the Arctic amplification (AA) remains an open question. Analysis of data sets based upon observations reveals a 1.11 K per decade surface warming trend in the Arctic (70°–90°N) during 1979–2020 cold season (October–February) that is five times higher than the corresponding global mean. Based on surface energy budget analysis, we show that the largest contribution (∼82%) to this cold season warming trend is attributed to changes in clear‐sky downward longwave radiation. In contrast to that in Arctic summer and over tropics, a reduction in lower‐tropospheric inversions plays a unique role in explaining the reduction of the downward longwave radiation associated with atmospheric nonuniform temperature and corresponding moisture changes. Our analyses also suggest that Arctic lower‐tropospheric stability should be considered in conjunction with sea‐ice decline during the preceding warm season to explain AA. Plain Language Summary: Observations and climate models have consistently shown a stronger surface warming in the Arctic than the global mean, a.k.a. Arctic amplification (AA), which has a strong asymmetry between the cold season and warm season. Previous studies suggested that key contributors to AA are the positive surface‐albedo feedback and lapse‐rate feedback. However, the lapse‐rate feedback itself depends on temperature profiles and sea‐ice loss. Whether sea‐ice loss or lapse‐rate feedback dominates AA remains an open question. Here, by analyzing the latest generation of observationally‐based reanalysis data (1979–2020), we present a unique role of lower‐tropospheric temperature inversion changes in representing the contribution of vertically inhomogeneous atmospheric temperature and associated moisture changes to clear‐sky downward longwave radiation during the cold season. This unique role is not found either in the tropics or during Arctic summertime. We further link the inversion during the cold season to sea‐ice loss during the preceding warm season. These results reinforce previous findings not only that lapse‐rate feedback and sea‐ice loss play a key role in AA but also that lapse‐rate feedback in the cold season is likely a consequence of sea‐ice albedo feedback during the preceding warm season. Key Points: An increase in clear‐sky downward longwave radiation (rldsclr) explains 82% of the recent cold season Arctic surface warming trendReduced low inversion largely explains the Arctic rldsclr reduction due to vertical nonuniform temperature and related moisture changesLapse‐rate feedback in the Arctic cold season is likely a consequence of sea‐ice albedo feedback during the preceding warm season [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mobilization and land‐to‐ocean transfer of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic watersheds is intricately linked with the region's climate and water cycle, and furthermore at risk of changes from climate warming and associated impacts. This study quantifies model‐simulated estimates of runoff, surface and active layer leachate DOC concentrations and loadings to western Arctic rivers, specifically for basins that drain into coastal waters between and including the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers. Model validation leverages data from other field measurements, synthesis studies, and modeling efforts. The simulations effectively quantify DOC leaching in surface and subsurface runoff and broadly capture the seasonal cycle in DOC concentration and mass loadings reported from other studies that use river‐based measurements. A marked east‐west gradient in simulated spring and summer DOC concentrations of 24 drainage basins on the North Slope of Alaska is captured by the modeling, consistent with independent data derived from river sampling. Simulated loadings for the Mackenzie and Yukon show reasonable agreement with estimates of DOC export for annual totals and four of the six seasonal comparisons. Nearly equivalent loading occurs to rivers which drain north to the Beaufort Sea and west to the Bering and Chukchi Seas. The modeling framework provides a basis for understanding carbon export to coastal waters and for assessing impacts of hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw with ongoing warming in the Arctic. Plain Language Summary: Arctic rivers transfer a relatively large amount of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean compared to other oceans. The rivers contain organic carbon dissolved in the water, with the bulk arriving during the high flow in spring that follows snowmelt. There is evidence that climate warming is thawing permafrost and resulting in more carbon traveling through rivers to the Arctic Ocean, so it is important to understand how much enters river networks from soils. We used a computer model designed to capture the seasonal thawing and freezing of Arctic soils and seasonal snowpack accumulation to estimate how much dissolved organic carbon is loaded to rivers in the western Arctic over the period 1981 to 2010. For northern Alaska rivers the simulation shows a gradient in dissolved organic carbon concentration from the east side to the west, similar to the pattern in independent data derived from river measurements. Our new estimates suggest that roughly equivalent amounts of dissolved organic carbon are loaded to rivers which empty north to the Beaufort Sea, and west to the Bering and Chukchi Seas. The modeling allows us to better understand how climate change is impacting flows of water and carbon to the Arctic Ocean. Key Points: Modeling quantifies daily DOC loadings in surface and subsurface runoff into river networks across the western ArcticSimulation captures a gradient in seasonal DOC concentrations for North Slope Alaska rivers consistent with field measurementsSimilar loadings are estimated for basins draining to the north and to the west [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]